tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1198629951037494295.post9039388149734080766..comments2023-11-22T03:32:31.513-05:00Comments on Mostly Harmless: The Best of the LPGA: December 2007 EditionThe Constructivisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07242149985581771922noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1198629951037494295.post-84030226021967243192007-12-18T15:43:00.000-05:002007-12-18T15:43:00.000-05:00Annika's win in Dubai certainly sends a message fo...Annika's win in Dubai certainly sends a message for '08!The Constructivisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242149985581771922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1198629951037494295.post-71504498176214967722007-12-13T11:12:00.000-05:002007-12-13T11:12:00.000-05:00I just think the world has finally caught up to he...I just think the world has finally caught up to her. It's not just the rest of the Big 3 chasing her anymore--now she's in the pack, and the pack may be as big as 12 or 15 at roughly the same level. Or maybe I'm way off, and it'll just be her and Lorena pushing each other all '08 and everybody else waiting for weeks when both are off....The Constructivisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242149985581771922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1198629951037494295.post-61577231284451451362007-12-12T16:57:00.000-05:002007-12-12T16:57:00.000-05:00You wonder how successful a fully recovered Annika...You wonder how successful a fully recovered Annika can be next year. I suspect that given the significant mental factors in this strange Celtic game, of chasing little white puff balls towards fairy rings of psilocybe fungus, her years on tour and knowledge of the game will matter more now than previously. Thus i think she has a great chance to end up at or near the top, especially if she can pressure Lorena early on (and if she really is healthy).spyderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14251017646611361354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1198629951037494295.post-8587983390305733732007-12-12T07:44:00.000-05:002007-12-12T07:44:00.000-05:00Your point on continuity and difficulty of advance...Your point on continuity and difficulty of advancement is well taken. I didn't like dropping Ai-chan completely out of the Top 30 but that second-half performance was so bad, it wiped out most the gains from her first-half. If she had won at HSBC, that victory bonus (plus the extra money) would have kept her in.<BR/><BR/>I didn't realize GSPI was "only" the last 52 weeks - maybe they rank Webb #7 because of her two Australian wins back in January.<BR/><BR/>I agree that Seon Hwa is -this close!- to breaking through, but I think Jelly could turn out one of those 3+ wins monster seasons if she goes on a putting streak.Hound Doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14551723761253381230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1198629951037494295.post-83768421145723961042007-12-12T04:25:00.000-05:002007-12-12T04:25:00.000-05:00Well, the GSPI covers the last 52 weeks, and Rolex...Well, the GSPI covers the last 52 weeks, and Rolex the last 104, so at the end of a season Sagarin can actually claim they have covered it. Most of the time, though, they straddle two seasons. So I'm about 3/4 on "the season" at best, and usually closer to 2/3. Hey, but even you look at the previous season in the earlier parts of the next one, so I'm in good company!<BR/><BR/>What I like about combining all four systems is that Rolex (and to a lesser degree Sagarin) introduce a little level of continuity and difficulty of advancement to what would otherwise be a bit more volatile. To take one example, when Meaghan Francella beat Annika Sorenstam in that playoff early in 2007, she was one of the best golfers in the season to that point, but her staying power was unknown given that she mostly played the Futures Tour in '06. You needed to see more of the season unfold to see where she should be ranked. Whereas if Annika wins early in 2008, that's pretty convincing evidence she's back and ready to win multiple times that season.<BR/><BR/>Karrie Webb is a tougher example, given the, shall we say, volatility in her 2005-2007 play. But she's established the career record that says if she also wins early in '08 on the LPGA, she could easily be among the world's best again. But if she continues her indifferent play, she'll quickly slide down to Inkster territory in the GSPI in '08 (and someday get passed on the Rolex!).<BR/><BR/>So I like including Rolex and Sagarin to help me do the rankings within the categories and to note when someone is finally getting recognition for good play (like Seon Hwa Lee jumping up to #11 in the GSPI--yeah!). As you can see, your system and Sagarin both reflect rather well the fact that Ai Miyazato would probably not have made the cut at Q-School were she to have had to go back to it this year, given how badly she's been playing in the second half of 2007. But between the HSBC and her overall consistency in the first season and a half, the money list and Rolex have kept her from falling off my chart. She'll need a turnaround in 2008 to stick around, however.<BR/><BR/>What I don't like about my system is that it ranks Jee Young Lee ahead of both Pressel and Seon Hwa Lee, even though the latter have wins in 2007 and she doesn't. But Pressel slumped at the end of 2007 and paid for it in the GSPI, while Jee Young made your top 10. My Super Soph ranking is a career comparison and this one is a lot less cumulative, so that's the breaks. But it leads me to believe that Seon Hwa has the best chance of having a breakout seasn in '08. We'll see!The Constructivisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242149985581771922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1198629951037494295.post-56887060414683672992007-12-11T14:21:00.000-05:002007-12-11T14:21:00.000-05:00Good stuff! Of course I'm biased by my inclusion ...Good stuff! Of course I'm biased by my inclusion in the process!<BR/><BR/>I haven't mentioned before that one of the best things about combining these four particular rankings is that two of them (mine and the money list) are solely based on the 2007 season while the other two include 2006 data in their formulas. I choose to only figure one season at a time mainly because it's easier that way, but also because "The Season" has always been the traditional sports time-period of choice. TC's method gives "The Season" and the longer-term equal weight. But I still have to question Rolex and Sagarin - why should we care what Karrie Webb did in '06 when we are trying to determine the best players NOW?Hound Doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14551723761253381230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1198629951037494295.post-38800325713747099472007-12-11T11:54:00.000-05:002007-12-11T11:54:00.000-05:00With Sorenstam ranked #10 in my system, how do my ...With Sorenstam ranked #10 in my system, how do my early season predictions look?<BR/><BR/>"Back at the end of January, I predicted that Lorena Ochoa, Ai Miyazato, Karrie Webb, Cristie Kerr, Mi Hyun Kim, Se Ri Pak, Jeong Jang, Natalie Gulbis, and Meena Lee would have the best chance to match or surpass Annika Sorenstam this season (and at the end of February I added Seon Hwa Lee to my top 11)."<BR/><BR/>Good thing I added Seon Hwa--that brings me to 5 for 11. Will try to do better for '08!The Constructivisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242149985581771922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1198629951037494295.post-58019296960143286922007-12-11T09:56:00.000-05:002007-12-11T09:56:00.000-05:00Waggle Roomed this....<A HREF="http://www.waggleroom.com/story/2007/12/11/95521/141" REL="nofollow">Waggle Room</A>ed this....The Constructivisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07242149985581771922noreply@blogger.com