Friday, February 4, 2011

We've Got Our 1st 2 LPGA Prognostication Derby Entries of 2011!

Thanks to Golf Girl for helping to promote the 2011 LPGA Prognostication Derby. I've moved the results from the past 3 years to the right sidebar near the bottom of the Hitchhiker's Guides section for your reference, plus I'll remind everyone of my 1st cheat sheet (more coming soon!). But really what I want to do in this post is congratulate the 1st 2 entrants in this year's competition, defending champion (and highest-ever points getter) rjay and fellow Seoul and PakPicker regular shungkim.

Here are their top 30 predictions:

1 Jiyai Shin
2 Yani Tseng
3 Ai Miyazato
4 Na Yeon Choi
5 Song-Hee Kim
6 Cristie Kerr
7 Suzann Pettersen
8 Michelle Wie
9 In-Kyung Kim
10 Mika Miyazato
11 Amy Yang
12 Inbee Park
13 Paula Creamer
14 Brittany Lincicome
15 Katherine Hull
16 Angela Stanford
17 Sun Young Yoo
18 Jee Young Lee
19 Stacy Lewis
20 Maria Hjorth
21 Brittany Lang
22 Morgan Pressel
23 Karrie Webb
24 Anna Nordqvist
25 Vicky Hurst
26 Hee Young Park
27 Seon Hwa Lee
28 Beatriz Recari
29 Kristy McPherson
30 Shanshan Feng

1 Ji Yai Shin
2 Yani Tseng
3 Na Yeon Choi
4 Cristie Kerr
5 Ai Miyazato
6 Michelle Wie
7 Song Hee Kim
8 Paula Creamer
9 In Kyung Kim
10 Suzann Pettersen
11 Katherine Hull
12 Anna Nordqvist
13 Morgan Pressel
14 Amy Yang
15 Brittany Lincicome
16 In Bee Park
17 Mika Miyazato
18 Vicky Hurst
19 MJ Hur
20 Amanda Blumenherst
21 Hee Young Park
22 Christina Kim
23 Hee Young Seo
24 Jennifer Song
25 Natalie Gulbis
26 Stacy Lewis
27 Brittany Lang
28 Beatriz Recari
29 Sun Young Yoo
30 Azahara Munoz

Remember, the point is to rank your top 30 based on your sense of who's most likely (next most likely, next next most likely, and so on) to win Player of the Year on the LPGA. The simple way to score it would be to see who ended up in the top 30 in POY points in 2011, but we eschew the simple (and sensible) here at Mostly Harmless. Instead, I average results from the top 5 ranking systems in women's golf--Hound Dog's, Rolex's, Golfweek's, the money list's, and, of course, my own--and produce a consensus top 30. Then I score each person's predictions using a modified version of the PakPicker scoring system, which gives points both for correctly picking top 30 players and for accurately predicting how high (or low) in the top 30 they end up. Now, I'm open to including other ranking systems (I'm looking at you, Ruthless Mike, but you'd have to do a season-ending ranking that included 40-70 players in it to be eligible, and at you, Thomas Atkins, but you'd have to limit yourself to a 2-year-or-under window for your number-crunching!), but I'd also want to keep my scoring system consistent to allow for comparisons of competitors' results across years (so no pressure, guys!).

Think you can beat them? Give me your ranked top 30 on your own blog, in a comment here, in the Seoul thread I started, over email (see my profile for coordinates), or via a fanpost or comment over at Hound Dog LPGA.

[Update 1 (2/5/11, 5:14 am): Make that 3!

Verdant Garden
1. Shin, Jiyai
2. Kerr, Cristie
3. Tseng, Yani
4. Miyazato, Ai
5. Choi, Na Yeon
6. Pettersen, Suzann
7. Kim, In-Kyung
8. Creamer, Paula
9. Kim, Song-Hee
10. Yang, Amy
11. Park, Inbee
12. Pressel, Morgan
13. Miyazato, Mika
14. Wie, Michelle
15. Lee, Jee Young
16. Stanford, Angela
17. Song, Jennifer
18. Pak, Se Ri
19. Kim, Christina
20. Lewis, Stacy
21. Ji, Eun-Hee
22. Munoz, Azahara
23. Nordqvist, Anna
24. Seo, Hee Kyung
25. Yoo, Sun Young
26. Hull, Katherine
27. Lincicome, Brittany
28. Park, Hee Young
29. Hjorth, Maria
30. Lee, Seon Hwa

VG even uses the Pakpicker format!]

[Update 2 (5:24 am): Make that 4--see Tony's list in comments! He makes it 3 of the 1st 4 to have picked Recari as a top 30 player in 2011. I just don't see it, but of course anything's possible!]


Tony Jesselli (Tonyj5) said...

1- Na Yeong Choi
2- Ji Yai Shin
3- Suzanne Petterson
4- Paula Creamer
5- Yani Tseng
6- Cristie Kerr
7- Song Hee Kim
8- Ai Miazato
9- In Kyung Kim
10-Michelle Wie
11-Mika Miazato
12-Morgan Pressel
13-Hee Young Seo
14-Brittany Lincicome
15-Amy Yang
16-Angela Stanford
17-Anna Nordqvist
18-Stacy Lewis
19-Brittany Lang
20-Inbee Park
21-Karrie Webb
22-Amanda Blumenherst
23-Vicky Hurst
24-Karine Icher
25-Azahara Munoz
26-Beatrice Recari
27-Natile Gulbis
28-Christina Kim
29-Hee Young Park
30-Belen Mozo

WooIsMe said...

How will Lexi Thompson be determined for money list ranking? As a non-member, all her earnings are unofficial and therefore not on the money list. Will you treat her 2011 LPGA earnings as if she a member? (She has a ranking for Rolex and Golfweek/Sagarin.)

The Constructivist said...

I explain in today's post, WM: