Friday, January 3, 2014

The Best in the Tseng Dynasty, January 2014 Edition

We've had half a year to get used to the ongoing shake-ups in the Tseng Dynasty, that is, among the best golfers in the LPGA rookie classes of 20062007, and 2008.  In that time, we've witnessed the continuing struggles of Empress Ya Ni, the rise and plateau of the Queen Bee, and, most recently, the charge by Princess Shanshan and advance by Lady Amy....

Last July, I debuted my formula for comparing performances within and across LPGA generations and shared it in a spreadsheet.  Before going over the updated ranking, let's take a look at the key factors in it and see who's doing the best in each category.  (Long-time readers will notice I decided to include Angela Park in these rankings!)

Career Majors
1. Ya Ni Tseng (5)
2. Inbee Park (4)
T3. Morgan Pressel, Na Yeon Choi, Shanshan Feng, Sun Young Yoo, Eun-Hee Ji (1)
T8. [everyone else in the generation] (0)

Career Victories
1. Ya Ni Tseng (15)
T2. Inbee Park, Ai Miyazato (9)
4. Na Yeon Choi (7)
5. Seon Hwa Lee (4)
6. In-Kyung Kim, Shanshan Feng (3)
T7. Morgan Pressel, Sun Young Yoo, Eun-Hee Ji, Ji Young Oh, Momoko Ueda, Hee Young Park (2)

Victory Rate
1. Ya Ni Tseng (10.56%)
2. Inbee Park (5.70%)
3. Ai Miyazato (5.14%)
4. Na Yeon Choi (4.86%)
5. Shanshan Feng (2.52%)
6. Seon Hwa Lee (2.31%)
7. Momoko Ueda (1.85%)
8. In-Kyung Kim (1.84%)
9. Ji Young Oh (1.44%)
10. Eun-Hee Ji (1.35%)
11. Hee Young Park (1.35%)
12. Morgan Pressel (1.05%)

Top-3 Finish Rate
1. Ya Ni Tseng (26.06%)
2. Na Yeon Choi (20.83%)
3. Inbee Park (13.29%)
4. Ai Miyazato (12.00%)
5. In-Kyung Kim (11.04%)
6. Angela Park (9.52%)
7. Song-Hee Kim (8.21%)
8. Shanshan Feng (7.56%)
9. Morgan Pressel (6.84%)
10. Seon Hwa Lee (6.36%)
11. Hee Young Park (5.41%)
12. Jee Young Lee (5.20%)
13. Amy Yang (5.04%)

Top-10 Finish Rate
1. Na Yeon Choi (45.83%)
2. Ya Ni Tseng (42.96%)
3. In-Kyung Kim (35.58%)
4. Ai Miyazato (34.14%)
5. Inbee Park (30.38%)
6. Song-Hee Kim (26.87%)
7. Shanshan Feng (25.21%)
8. Morgan Pressel (23.68%)
9. Amy Yang (23.53%)
10. Angela Park (21.43%)
11. Jee Young Lee (20.81%)
12. Hee Young Park (20.27%)

Think of this stat like batting averages in baseball!

Top-20 Finish Rate
1. Na Yeon Choi (71.53%)
2. Ya Ni Tseng (60.56%)
3. In-Kyung Kim (52.76%)
4. Ai Miyazato (52.57%)
5. Inbee Park (44.30%)
6. Amy Yang (42.86%)
7. Morgan Pressel (41.05%)
8. Song-Hee Kim (40.30%)
9. Jee Young Lee (38.73%)
10. Brittany Lang (36.76%)
11. Shanshan Feng (36.13%)
12. Seon Hwa Lee (35.26%)

Total Finish Rate (no MC, WD, or DQ)
1. Na Yeon Choi (97.92%)
2. Ya Ni Tseng (90.14%)
3. Amy Yang (89.08%)
4. In-Kyung Kim (87.73%)
5. Ai Miyazato (85.14%)
6. Inbee Park (84.81%)
7. Morgan Pressel (84.74%)
8. Hee Young Park (83.78%)
9. Brittany Lang (81.86%)
10. Sun Young Yoo (81.54%)
11. Eun-Hee Ji (81.08%)

Think of this stat like free-throw shooting in basketball!

Winnings per Start
1. Ya Ni Tseng ($66.0K)
2. Na Yeon Choi ($59.6K)
3. Inbee Park ($48.9K)
4. Ai Miyazato ($43.3K)
5. In-Kyung Kim ($38.3K)
6. Shanshan Feng ($34.1K)
7. Amy Yang ($30.3K)
8. Song-Hee Kim ($27.4K)
9. Morgan Pressel ($27.2K)
10. Angela Park ($25.2K)
11. Hee Young Park ($24.3K)
12. Seon Hwa Lee ($23.5K)

Winnings per Finish
1. Ya Ni Tseng ($73.3K)
2. Na Yeon Choi ($60.8K)
3. Inbee Park ($57.6K)
4. Ai Miyazato ($50.8K)
5. In-Kyung Kim ($43.7K)
6. Shanshan Feng ($43.6K)
7. Song-Hee Kim ($37.1K)
8. Angela Park ($34.7K)
9. Amy Yang ($34.0K)
10. Morgan Pressel ($32.1K)

Some patterns emerge among the top 5 players in the generation:
  • Ya Ni is 1st in 6 of the 9 categories and 2nd in the other 3;
  • NYC is 1st in those 3, 2nd in 3 others, and 4th in 3;
  • Inbee is 2nd or T2 in 3, 3rd in 3, 5th in 2, and 6th in 1;
  • Ai-sama is T2 in 1, 3rd in 1, 4th in 5, 5th in 1, and T8 in 1;
  • Inky is 3rd in 2, 4th in 1, 5th in 3, 6th in 1, and 8th or T8 in 2.
As I pointed out last July, though, what we really need is a formula we can use to rank all the top players in the generation, whether or not they appear in the above lists or not.  The problem is, counting by rank in each statistical category evens out what can be extreme distances between the players within them.  Better to develop a point system that tracks actual performances and weights them according to their relative significance.  So I came up with the following formula:  100 points per major, 40 points per win, 32 points per victory rate percentage point, 16 points per top-3 rate percentage point, 8 points per top-10 rate percentage point, 4 points per top-20 rate percentage point, 1 point per total finish rate percentage point, and 1 point per $100 in winnings per start and per finish.  Using it, we arrive at the following ranking:

Simply the Best
1. Ya Ni Tseng (3924) [-129]

The Contenders
2. Na Yeon Choi (2824) [-66]
3. Inbee Park (2725) [-24]

The Next Best
4. Ai Miyazato (2218) [-60]
5. In-Kyung Kim (1759) [-41]
6. Shanshan Feng (1623) [+405]

Quantum Leap Candidates
7. Morgan Pressel (1355) [-22]
8. Amy Yang (1239) [+126]
9. Song-Hee Kim (1226) [-15]
10. Seon Hwa Lee (1224) [-14]
11. Hee Young Park (1127) [+28]
12. Angela Park (1114) [n/a]
13. Sun Young Yoo (1065) [+5]
14. Eun-Hee Ji (1047) [-17]
15. Jee Young Lee (1008) [-40]
16. Brittany Lang (937) [-24]

The Best of the Rest
17. Momoko Ueda (765) [-28]
18. Julieta Granada (754) [-27]
19. Sandra Gal (730) [+32]
20. Ji Young Oh (612) [-15]
21. Kristy McPherson (604) [-19]
22. Teresa Lu (537) [n/a]
23. Jane Park (475) [n/a]

Those who have been following the way I ranked players within each of the 3 classes in this generation will note that this list differs from my actual rankings.  The difference is, in my posts of the last few days, I decided to take into account recent trajectories and future membership statuses (so that, for instance, slumping players like Momoko Ueda, Song-Hee Kim, Angela Park, and Seon Hwa Lee are ranked lower there than here within their respective classes).  But to avoid overvaluing those recent trends here and keep this post as objective a career comparison as possible, I decided to stick with the results from the formula and not to reshuffle players within each category myself.  I'll leave that to you!

I'll close by reiterating my point from last July:  we're still in the Tseng Dynasty.  And it may well take longer to topple it than many might believe.  Think of golf careers like the tides.  Once you've set a high-water mark or established a long-term pattern of higher water marks than most, the usual ebbs and flows in the shorter term matter less.  Yes, the tide is rising fast for Shanshan Feng and Amy Yang in particular, but they'll need to keep winning, preferably in bunches, to catch up to those in their generation who have already done that.  And nobody's done it better or longer than Ya Ni.  Yet.

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