So how does the new world #1 stack up against the LPGA's other double-digit winners? In terms of who's most likely to get their next win, that is....
[Note: the numbers in parentheses indicate total LPGA wins and majors, respectively.]
Most Likely to Win (Again) in 2014
1. Stacy Lewis (10/2): Now that's Stacy's gotten out of that close-but-no-cigar rut with 2 wins in her last 4 starts, the only question remaining is whether she can go on the same kind of run Inbee Park went on when she got out of a similar rut a few years back.
2. Suzann Pettersen (14/2): Despite her injuries and slower comeback than hoped for thus far, I still think 2014 will be Suzann's year. True, her run at the end of 2013 in which she finished inside the top 7 in 11 of her last 13 starts and notched 3 of last season's 4 victories is only a memory now. Even that pair of top 10s in her 1st 3 starts this season is pre-injury. And yet, it's worth repeating that Pettersen is only "11 points away from qualifying for the LPGA Hall of Fame" (as I pointed out at the start of the year)--I stand by what I wrote in March: "I still wouldn't be surprised to see her cut that number in half by the end of 2014."
3. Karrie Webb (41/7): In January, I wrote, "I'd say it's a matter of when, not if, win #40 on the LPGA will come for this Hall of Famer. She often plays well at the very start of the year, by the way, so don't be surprised if she's in the hunt at the ISPS Handa Women's Australian Open, an event she's won 4 times, the last time in 2008." And lo and behold, she won it! In March, I wrote, "I stand by my other prediction from January: 'I see no reason that 2014 can't be as good or even better than 2013 for her. If it's among her best, she has a chance to break the $20M barrier in career LPGA winnings this year!'" And lo and behold, she won the JTBC Founders Cup! So who's to say what she'll end up accomplishing this season? It's still worth keeping in mind that during her 1st 11 seasons on the LPGA, Webb was a consistent threat for the money-list title (which she took 3 times), Player of the Year award (twice), and Vare Trophy (3 times, the lowest scoring average of the 3 coming in 1999, at 69.43). In her near-20-year-long LPGA career, she's never finished outside the top 30 on the money list, only once had a scoring average above 72, only twice failed to make the top 20 on the money list (once when her scoring average rose above 71.50 for only the 3rd time in her career), and only 4 times failed to enter the winner's circle (in 2 of those seasons, her best finish was 2nd; in 2012, it was 3rd; for the other, it was 4th). Now, it's certainly worth noting that Webb's top-10 finish yesterday was her 1st since she started the season with 2 golds and a bronze sandwiched in between them. But all that means to me is that she's due for bigger and better finishes in the coming weeks and months.
4. Paula Creamer (10/1): In January, I wrote, "Her 1st win since the 2010 U.S. Women's Open will come during 2014. I guarantee it. How can I be so sure? She needs to get her fiance a great wedding present!" In March, I wrote, "Now that she has it, the sky's the limit!" I don't think ending her massive made-cut streak and only getting 4 top 25s in her last 8 starts is what I had in mind--much less what Paula did. Still the last 27 holes or so she remembered how to make birdies in bunches, so let's not count win #11 out just yet!
5. Cristie Kerr (16/2): The last few years have seen historical streaks end for her. 2011 was her 1st season without a win since 2003. Her run of consecutive million-dollar-seasons ended at 8 in 2012. She failed to break the $1M barrier in 2013, as well, but did follow up her 2012 win at the Lorena Ochoa Invitational with a win at Kingsmill and broke the $15M barrier in career LPGA winnings. Let's see if motherhood helps her to extend her current winning streak to 3 straight seasons and board the million-dollar train again. Her 6-event top-10 streak that came to an end in Alabama is a good sign, but she's going to need to get her putts per green in regulation rate down to where it usually is for her if she's going to start a new one.
Quantum Leap Candidates
6. Ya Ni Tseng (15/5): For a brief time in her career, she was an Annika/Lorena-style straight-up bomber, but lately she's been much more of a pre-2014 Michelle Wie-style wild bomber. Still, problems with the driver can sometimes clear up quickly, when a new club or swing thought suddenly clicks. So as bad as things have been looking for her lately, I'm still thinking a win is possible for her in 2014. If she can get things going, she also has a chance to break the $10M barrier in career LPGA winnings this year. And she's still only 4 points away from entering the LPGA Hall of Fame (once she completes 10 seasons on tour, that is). Those 2 top 5s out of the blue this season show what she's capable of, so let's see if she can keep turning things around.
7. Se Ri Pak (25/5): The Hall of Famer finished 2013 with 3 top 10s in her last 4 starts, but sat out the CME Group Titleholders, raising fears about the shoulder injury that's been plaguing her the last few seasons. It's gotten to the point where it's hard to remember that from 1998-2004, she was one of the 3 best players in the world of women's golf, racking up 22 golds, 14 silvers, 6 bronzes, and 83 top 10s in all. She won the Vare Trophy in 2003 with a 70.03 scoring average, but not in 2002 with a 69.85 one or in 2001 with a 69.69 (thanks, Annika!). She was a 4-time silver medalist on the money list and 2-time bronze medalist during this stretch. She hasn't been nearly that dominant since then, but she won her 5th major in dramatic fashion at the 2006 LPGA Championship, became a 5-time winner of the Farr (now Marathon) in 2007, the year she was inducted into the Hall of Fame, and got her 25th career win at the Bell Micro in 2010. The question for 2014 is not just whether she can break through again, but how serious her shoulder injury really is and how much longer it will permit her to play on the LPGA. The evidence so far is mixed: she already has 3 top 10s and 6 top 20s, but she's also missed the cut in 3 of her last 4 starts.
On the Bottom, Looking Up
8. Juli Inkster (31/7): Her best event in 2013, a top-15 finish, was in NW Arkansas, but her performance stats remained fairly solid and she'll be able to play as many events as she wants to in 2014 from #70 on the priority status list. If she has a good year, she can break the $14M barrier in career LPGA winnings. With 4 missed cuts and no finishes in the top 30 just yet, she's not on pace to do that.
9. Laura Davies (20/4): She gained a little distance in 2013, but continued her 4-season trend of bad putting. Until she gets the flat stick working, those last 2 Hall of Fame points she needs are looking further and further out of reach. She should get plenty of starts from #143 on the priority status list, so let's see if she can build on her lone T15 and stop missing cuts, as she's done in her other 5 starts this season, including the last 2 weeks.
On the Outside, Looking In
10. Ji-Yai Shin (11/2): Even though she's left the LPGA for 2014, she remains the 2nd-ranked player in my career evaluation system. She'll need to win an LPGA event she happens to enter for any 2014 results to count toward her career totals. It didn't happen at the Showdown in Singapore or at the Kraft Nabisco Championship. Meanwhile, she's been struggling a bit on the JLPGA, currently at #20 on their money list, so much so that she chose not to exercise her exemption into the U.S. Women's Open. So probably the next time we'll see her on the LPGA will be in the Ricoh Women's British Open, which she's won twice.