I'm using the final 2009 rankings from the LPGA money list, Rolex Rankings, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index, Hound Dog Top 70, and my own Best of the LPGA list to generate a top 30 list based on average ranking, which I'm then using to generate points for each predictor, based on the following formula from when I did this last winter break:
First, we get points for each of our picks who finished in the top 30 (including ties), on the following scale: 30 for 1st, 29 for 2nd, 28 for 3rd, and so on, down to 1 for 30th. Next, we get bonus points for the accuracy of our picks: 20 points for nailing a pick and a point off for every spot we're off (up to 19, to avoid turning the bonus into a penalty). The maximum number of points you can get for a single player, then, is 50 (picking as our top player the actual #1).
You'll no doubt recall last year's results, but just in case, here they are again.
1st Mulligan Stu (646)
2nd Hound Dog (604)
3rd The Constructivist (569)
4th Bill Jempty (529)
5th Ron Sirak (518)
Would Mulligan Stu be able to defend his title? Just who were the LPGA's top 30 in 2009, anyway?
1. Lorena Ochoa (#4 money, #1 HD, #1 RR, #1 GSPI, #1 BOTL: 1.6)
2. Ji-Yai Shin (#1 money, #2 HD, #2 RR, #6 GSPI, #2 BOTL: 2.6)
3. Cristie Kerr (#2 money, #4 HD, #4 RR, #2 GSPI, #3 BOTL: 3)
4. Suzann Pettersen (#5 money, #6 HD, #3 RR, #5 GSPI, #5 BOTL: 4.8)
5. Ai Miyazato (#3 money, #3 HD, #8 RR, #8 GSPI, #4 BOTL: 5.2)
6. Na Yeon Choi (#6 money, #5 HD, #12 RR, #3 GSPI, #6 BOTL: 6.4)
7. Ya Ni Tseng (#7 money, #8 HD, #5 RR, #7 GSPI, #7 BOTL: 6.8)
8. Paula Creamer (#9 money, #11 HD, #6 RR, #4 GSPI, #8 BOTL: 7.6)
9. Angela Stanford (#10 money, #9 HD, #9 RR, #10 GSPI, #9 BOTL: 9.4)
10. Anna Nordqvist (#15 money, #7 HD, #7 RR, #12 GSPI, #11 BOTL: 10.4)
11. Michelle Wie (#14 money, #10 HD, #10 RR, #9 GSPI, #10 BOTL: 10.6)
12. In-Kyung Kim (#8 money, #12 HD, #11 RR, #15 GSPI, #12 BOTL: 11.6)
13. Song-Hee Kim (#11 money, #13 HD, #14 RR, #11 GSPI, #13 BOTL: 12.4)
14. Karrie Webb (#12 money, #14 HD, #13 RR, #17 GSPI, #14 BOTL: 14)
15. Kristy McPherson (#16 money, #18 HD, #21 RR, #18 GSPI, #16 BOTL: 17.8)
16. Brittany Lang (#19 money, #17 HD, #26 RR, #13 GSPI, #17 BOTL: 18.4)
17. Eun-Hee Ji (#13 money, #16 HD, #19 RR, #35 GSPI, #15 BOTL: 19.6)
18. Catriona Matthew (#26 money, #15 HD, #26 RR, #20 GSPI, #19 BOTL: 21.2)
19. Sophie Gustafson (#17 money, #19 HD, #18 RR, #37 GSPI, #18 BOTL: 21.8)
20. Morgan Pressel (#22 money, #22 HD, #23 RR, #23 GSPI, #21 BOTL: 22.2)
21. Lindsey Wright (#18 money, #20 HD, #28 RR, #26 GSPI, #20 BOTL: 22.4)
22. Sun Young Yoo (#23 money, #21 HD, #34 RR, #16 GSPI, #22 BOTL: 23.2)
23. Maria Hjorth (#32 money, #23 HD, #24 RR, #29 GSPI, #24 BOTL: 25.4)
24. Seon Hwa Lee (#28 money, #27 HD, #31 RR, #25 GSPI, #23 BOTL: 26.8)
25. Momoko Ueda (#33 money, #29 HD, #27 RR, #24 GSPI, #25 BOTL: 27.6)
26. Hee Young Park (#20 money, #26 HD, #36 RR, #46 GSPI, #26 BOTL: 30.8)
27. Katherine Hull (#27 money, #30 HD, #35 RR, #38 GSPI, #27 BOTL: 31.4)
28. Helen Alfredsson (#35 money, #31 HD, #25 RR, #39 GSPI, #31 BOTL: 32.2)
29. Brittany Lincicome (#21 money, #24 HD, #30 RR, #59 GSPI, #28 BOTL: 32.4)
30. Ji Young Oh (#24 money, #28 HD, #41 RR, #47 GSPI, #29 BOTL: 33.8)
Here's how we did this past season:
1st: Hound Dog (621)
2nd: Ron Sirak (613)
3rd: Ryan Ballengee (609)
4th: The Constructivist (596)
5th: Mulligan Stu (533)
6th: Bill Jempty (516)
7th: Jamie Saengsawang (489)
If Sirak hadn't whiffed on his #13 pick, he would have gone from the cellar in 2008 to the penthouse in 2009--provided, that is, he had picked Anna Nordqvist, Michelle Wie, Kristy McPherson, Catriona Matthew, Eun-Hee Ji, Ai Miyazato, Lindsey Wright, Sun Young Yoo, or Hee Young Park. If that had happened, he would have had the fewest picks outside the top 10, as well; as it was, he tied Hound Dog and Ryan Ballengee with 11, while I had 12, Mulligan Stu and Bill had 14, and Jamie had 15. Sirak had his 1st 13 picks in the top 30 (Jeong Jang was the 1st to break his streak); Hound Dog had his 1st 10 (Jee Young Lee was the one who ended his run, just as she ended Ryan's at 8 and mine at 7); everyone else had 2 of their top 10 picks not even make the top 30 (Amy Yang hurt Bill, Jamie and me; Angela Park hurt Mulligan Stu and Ryan).
What ended up making the biggest difference for Hound Dog was his picking Hee Young Park to finish #29, which netted him 22 points; he and Jamie were the only 2 to pick Yoo in their top 30, as well (worth 23 points for HD and 24 for Jamie). Whereas Ryan had 5 of his top 15 earn him 22 points, HD's lowest 5 point-getters in his top 15 earned him 41 points.
To see how easily this could have gone another way, here are the next 20:
31. Natalie Gulbis (#40 money, #25 HD, #58 RR, #21 GSPI, #30 BOTL: 34.8) [picked by Sirak to finish #30 and Ryan to finish #23]
32. Hee-Won Han (#29 money, #33 HD, #40 RR, #41 GSPI, #32 BOTL: 35) [picked by all of us]
33. Jee Young Lee (#37 money, #35 HD, #46 RR, #33 GSPI, #33 BOTL: 36.8) [picked by all of us]
34. Se Ri Pak (#30 money, #38 HD, #43 RR, #42 GSPI, #34 BOTL: 37.4) [picked by Sirak to finish #29, MS #28, and Bill #24]
35. Juli Inkster (#51 money, #36 HD, #50 RR, #31 GSPI, #36 BOTL: 40.8) [picked by Sirak to finish #25]
36. Amy Yang (#45 money, #34 HD, #52 RR, #36 GSPI, #38 BOTL: 41) [see above]
37. Vicky Hurst (#44 money, #32 HD, #62 RR, #40 GSPI, #39 BOTL: 43.4) [picked by Bill to finish #8, Jamie #20, and Ryan #29]
38. Christina Kim (#38 money, #44 HD, #49 RR, #55 GSPI, #40 BOTL: 45.2) [picked by all of us except Sirak]
39. Candie Kung (#25 money, #54 HD, #37 RR, #78 GSPI, #35 BOTL: 45.8) [picked by HD and Jamie to finish #22 and by me to finish #29]
40. Wendy Ward (#39 money, #37 HD, #68 RR, #45 GSPI, #41 BOTL: 46)
41. Michele Redman (#42 money, #45 HD, #51 RR, #50 GSPI, #44 BOTL: 46.4)
42. Pat Hurst (#36 money, #39 HD, #64 RR, #54 GSPI, #42 BOTL: 47)
43. Stacy Lewis (#47 money, #46 HD, #47 RR, #53 GSPI, #45 BOTL: 47.6) [picked by all of us except Sirak]
44. M.J. Hur (#31 money, #40 HD, #45 RR, #89 GSPI, #37 BOTL: 48.4)
45. Meena Lee (#34 money, #42 HD, #67 RR, #57 GSPI, #46 BOTL: 49.2) [picked by Jamie to finish #16 and HD to finish #30]
46. Sandra Gal (#46 money, #43 HD, #73 RR, #43 GSPI, #43 BOTL: 49.6) [picked by MS to finish #30]
47. Kyeong Bae (#41 money, #47 HD, #71 RR, #70 GSPI, #47 BOTL: 54)
48. Teresa Lu (#54 money, #50 HD, #76 RR, #48 GSPI, #48 BOTL: 55.2)
49. Inbee Park (#50 money, #59 HD, #42 RR, #74 GSPI, #52 BOTL: 55.4) [picked by Sirak to finish #15]
50. Janice Moodie (#58 money, #41 HD, #84 RR, #52 GSPI, #49 BOTL: 56.8)
Yup, if Gulbis, Pak, or Inkster had made the top 30, Sirak would have come in 1st even while skipping a pick, but if Vicky Hurst had done it instead, Ryan would have been the 2nd winner of the coveted Mostly Harmless Best LPGA Predictor in 2009 award. As it is, though, the honor is all Hound Dog's!
The 2010 LPGA Prognostication Derby should be another photo finish. All you need to do to enter is post your predicted top 30 on your own blog, as a fan post at Hound Dog LPGA, in comments on this post (or my 1/28/10 predictions post), or to me directly via email (see my profile for my coordinates). Good luck!
[Update 1 (5:16 am): I'd be remiss were I to fail to note that in the weekly PakPickers competition at Seoul Sisters.com, rjay had a truly dominant season, beating bangkokbobby by a whopping 38 points. I came in 5th, but only finished ahead of Hound Dog because he sat out the last third of the season while on his bloggy leave. Welcome back, HD!]
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