This is the 1st time I'm ranking the Class of 2013, the 2nd of 3 classes in what I'm calling the LPGA's "Generation Prodigy." So far nobody among the '13ers lives up to that moniker, but there are some pretty good candidates. And it's really too soon to tell, even for those who aren't among the 20 of 35 members who will have some sort of LPGA status in 2014. (Compare that to 20 from the Class of 2012, 17 from the Class of 2011, 13 from the Class of 2010, 12 from the Class of 2009, and 10 from the classes of 2008, 2007, and 2006.) So let's wait and see before we assume Rookie of the Year Moriya Jutanugarn will continue to be the standard-bearer for the '13ers or guess at how many will have productive LPGA careers. I gotta say, though, it's not looking good for most of them right now.
The Contenders
1. Caroline Masson: According to my career ranking system, she was the clear winner of the 2013 LPGA Rookie of the Year race, finishing 60 points clear of Ayako Uehara and almost 100 ahead of the actual ROY, Moriya Jutanugarn, despite playing at the end of the season with a broken thumb. This season, I'm looking for her to improve on her #48 standing on the LPGA money list (in 22 starts) and #40 position on the LET Order of Merit (in 8 starts). Her LPGA scoring average was quite high for someone who made as many birdies as she did in 2013. If she can do a better job of minimizing the big numbers and keep making incremental improvements in her game, she should benefit from--and build on--this past year's experience. Whether that'll be enough to keep her #1 in her class is another story!
2. Ayako Uehara: I was surprised when this 3-time winner on the JLPGA decided to try for the LPGA and even more surprised that the Okinawa native made a smoother transition than Chie Arimura. What kept her from doing more than making cuts consistently was a very weak iron game; between a low greens in regulation rate and non-elite putting stats, she had trouble breaking into the top 25 in 2013. But I expect her to improve in both areas in 2014.
3. Chie Arimura: This 13-time JLPGA champion had a disastrous 2014 by her standards, breaking into the top 10 only 3 times in 20 LPGA starts and not even getting into the top 25 in her 4 JLPGA starts. But she's doubling down on her LPGA quest in 2014. To make it more successful, the bottom line is that she needs to putt better and make more birdies. Forget rejoining the world's elite this season; she's only the 9th-ranked Japanese woman golfer right now. The good news is she stayed in the LPGA's ROY race almost to the bitter end despite all her struggles. If she gets to 75% of capacity in 2014, she'll be the #1 player in her class by the end of the season.
4. Moriya Jutanugarn: She showed a lot of grit at the end of the season to chase down Masson and beat her by a single point to take ROY. But like I said at the start of the season, she needs to improve her birdie rate to become a top-30 player on the LPGA. The culprit seems to be her putter, but I think improving her iron play should also be a high priority for 2014. Let's see if she can do it!
The Next Best
5. Lisa McCloskey: She's the only other player in her class making cuts at a rate that suggests she has a long-term future on the LPGA, but she'll need to drastically improve her iron play in 2014 to start breaking into the top 20 more often.
6. Austin Ernst: As badly as she putted in 2013, she showed flashes of what she's capable of with a pair of top 10s in the middle of the season.
Quantum Leap Candidates
7. Katie Burnett (#115 on 2014 LPGA Priority Status List): She barely finished in the top 100 on the LPGA money list last season, but she'll get as many starts as she wants this one. The key for her in 2014 is to give herself more and better birdie chances. Only Caroline Masson among her classmates putted better than she did in 2013.
8. Brooke Pancake (#114): She also squeaked into the top 100 on the money list, but unless she improves her ball-striking dramatically in 2014, she may find herself in Q-School come December. She showed plenty of grit by following up a 7-event missed-cut streak with a T13, so we know she has it in her!
On the Bottom, Looking Up
9. Felicity Johnson (#150): Amazingly, she averaged slightly more birdies per round than the LPGA Rookie of the Year despite taking over 1.93 putts per green in regulation. With finishes outside the top 100 on the LPGA money list in 17 starts and outside the top 70 on the LET Order of Merit in 14 starts last season, it's clear whatever the 2-time winner on the LET was doing in 2013 wasn't working. On the bright side, she should get into her share of LPGA events in 2014, if she so chooses.
10. Julia Boland (#156): After winning on the Symetra Tour in 2012 and earning her LPGA card for 2013, the Aussie had a better putting year but a horrible ball-striking year and will most likely be splitting her time between the 2 tours in 2014.
11. Sue Kim (#91): She moved from 23rd on the Symetra Tour money list in 2012 to 6th in 2013 by winning her 1st event there and making incremental improvements in every aspect of her game. She didn't see those kind of results in her 7 LPGA starts last season, but look for her to improve when she plays her 1st full season on tour.
12. Paz Echeverria (#134): The pride of Chile did everything well on the LPGA last season except putt, but she still needed to go back to Q-School, where she finished T13 and stamped her 2014 LPGA passport. If she can get her putter going this season, watch out for her.
13. Kayla Mortellaro (#133): Injuries cut short her rookie season (and probably affected her play), so she's on a medical exemption at roughly the same spot on the priority status list in 2014 as she was in 2013. Let's see what this 10-time winner from the University of Idaho does from it this time around.
14. Nicole Smith (#98): I don't understand how a medical exemption from a shoulder injury moves her into Category 11 on the 2014 priority status list when she was in Category 9 in 2013. Be that as it may, she gets a blank slate for her sophomore campaign, as well. Looking at her Symetra Tour stats from 2010-2012, I'm impressed at how she's managed to increase her length off the tee without sacrificing accuracy. If she's healthy in 2014, and can get her putter going, she could very well surprise a lot of people.
15. Victoria Elizabeth (#129): After nearly being skunked in her rookie season on the LPGA, she turned it around at the final stage of Q-School, finishing T13, so she'll be back on a full schedule on the big tour in 2014. Going from her stellar career as a junior golfer and solid performance stats in 4 seasons on the Symetra Tour (where she won once in 2012), I'd say she has a decent chance to turn things around and go back to being the "straight shooter" style of player she's been in the past.
16. Alejandra Llaneza (#162): She's a classic precision player who improved from 2012 to 2013 on the Symetra Tour while only getting 3 LPGA starts (making her only cut as a sponsor exemption at the Lorena Ochoa Invitational, so the money she won was unofficial). Look for her to continue improving, mostly in the minor leagues, in 2014.
17. Marina Alex (#88): This precision player from Vanderbilt actually lost a little distance and accuracy from 2012 to 2013 on the Symetra Tour, but moved up from 39th on the 2012 money list in 7 starts to 3rd on the 2013 money list in 14 starts because she improved her putting. If she can keep doing that on the big tour in 2014, she should be able to keep her card.
18. Perrine Delacour (#93): This French straight shooter spent 2013 on the Symetra Tour, where she finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year race and 8th on the year-end money list. If she can bring that kind of game to the LPGA in 2014, watch out for her!
19. Brianna Do (#171): The 2011 Publinx champion and UCLA grad has had a couple of seasons of seasoning on the Symetra Tour already, and will have another in 2014. The precision player will need to improve her iron play to get better status on the LPGA in 2015.
20. Haley Millsap (#165): For the 2nd year in a row, she earned a Category 17 LPGA card via Q-School, so she'll (mostly) be back on the Symetra Tour in 2014.
On the Outside, Looking In
21. Breanna Elliott: She had a bad final round at the final stage of LPGA Q-School and ended up T60. The Aussie will need to improve her iron play on the Symetra Tour in 2014 to add to her 7 LPGA starts in 2015.
22. Lauren Doughtie: This '09 NC State grad missed the 72-hole cut at the final stage of LPGA Q-School and will be back on the Symetra Tour in 2014, trying to follow up on her 2012 victory there (her 1st).
23. Sara-Maude Juneau: This 5-time winner at the University of Louisville improved her iron play from 2011 to 2012 on the Symetra Tour, squeaking into the top 10 on their money list in her sophomore campaign, but her rookie season on the LPGA was a serious step backward. The Symetra Tour precision player couldn't find the green in 2013 and will be back in the minor leagues in 2014 after finishing just outside the 72-hole cut line at the final stage of LPGA Q-School.
24. Daniela Iacobelli: This bomber broke through with a win during her 3rd season on the Symetra Tour in 2012, but finished outside the top 125 on the LPGA money list in 2013 and missed the 72-hole cut at the final stage of Q-School, so it's back to the minor leagues in 2014.
25. Inhong Lim: A world traveller who made it to the LPGA in 2013 from South Korea to New Zealand to Australia to Ohio State to the Symetra Tour, she got 2 starts last season and made 1 cut, but given her struggles to even break the top 100 on the Symetra Tour money list in her 2 seasons there or make the top 140 after 72 holes at LPGA Q-School's final stage this past December, this precision player may just not have the distance to compete successfully as a professional.
26. Kelly Jacques: Although she never played a full season on the Symetra Tour in 2009, 2011, or 2012, she made it to the LPGA in 2013, getting 5 starts and making 1 cut. After finishing well outside the 72-hole cut line at the final stage of Q-School, it'll be interesting to see if she focuses on the Symetra Tour in 2014 and keeps improving her iron play.
27. Taylore Karle: She made it to the LPGA by getting the final spot in a multi-player playoff at 2012 LPGA Q-School, but then nearly got skunked in her 14 starts in the big leagues and came DFL after 72 holes at Q-School. Will she take the opportunity to refocus on the Symetra Tour in 2014? She's only played 1 event there in her career.
28. Jiayun Li: A standout on the CLPGA (finishing 3rd on their money list in 2011 and 21st in 2012), she finished 84th in 9 starts on the LET Order of Merit in 2013 but missed the 72-hole cut at the final stage of LPGA Q-School. I wonder if she'll focus on the Symetra Tour in 2014?
29. Stephanie Na: This long-time ALPG and Symetra Tour member finished 83rd on the LET Order of Merit in 17 starts last season and just missed the 72-hole cut at LPGA Q-School, so is likely to split her time between both tours in 2014.
30. Frances Bondad: Another Aussie who's been bouncing around the ALPG, Symetra Tour, and LET the last several years, she got 6 starts on the LPGA, 5 on the LET, 8 on the ALPG, and 9 on the Symetra Tour in 2013. After missing Category 17 by a single shot at LPGA Q-School's final stage, it's looking like she'll put together a similar schedule in 2014, minus the LPGA starts.
31. Jordan Hardy: She's back on the Symetra Tour this season after missing the 72-hole cut at the final stage of LPGA Q-School. Will need to vastly improve her game to extend her professional career.
32. Garrett Phillips: This long-time Symetra Tour member missed the 72-hole cut at the final stage of LPGA Q-School, so she'll face the decision of returning for her 5th season (it looks like she sat out 2012) or looking for other work.
33. Marita Engzelius: She got 4 starts on the LPGA and 6 starts on the Symetra Tour in 2013 and after missing the 72-hole cut at the final stage of LPGA Q-School, she'll be looking to improve on the latter in 2014.
34. Esther Choe: After turning pro as a teenager, she toiled on mini-tours and the Symetra Tour for years before breaking through in 2012 with 2 victories and a #1 finish on their season-ending money list. But she went 0 for 12 on the LPGA and badly missed the 72-hole cut at Q-school's final stage. Wonder what 2014 has in store for her?
Status Unknown
35. Marina Stuetz: After going 0 for 11 on the LPGA in 2013, she didn't enter Q-School.
For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the January 2014 ranking.
2013 LPGA Money List (rank), scoring average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on five key indicators of how well someone played last season--how much money they won, how they scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, how many greens they hit in regulation on average per round, and how many putts per green in regulation they took on average, plus how they ranked in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are the most important I've incorporated into my career ranking (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the immediate past and future.
NAME/$$/SCORING AVE./BIRDIES PER ROUND/GIR/PPGIR (ranks)
1. Moriya Jutanugarn, $293.2K (#47), 72.085 (#53), 2.87 (#47), 68.2% (#40), 1.847 (#92)
2. Caroline Masson, $287.8K (#48), 72.646 (#74), 3.38 (#57), 66.5% (#61), 1.807 (#32)
3. Ayako Uehara, $212.8K (#58), 71.964 (#45), 3.02 (#82), 63.5% (#105), 1.814 (#41)
4. Chie Arimura, $202.3K (#61), 72.467 (#67), 2.97 (#74), 67.8% (#44), 1.831 (#65)
5. Austin Ernst, $142.0K (#72), 72.821 (#86), 3.38 (#55), 66.8% (#54), 1.845 (#89)
6. Lisa McCloskey, $123.9K (#78), 72.233 (#55), 3.13 (#68), 63.1% (#108), 1.814 (#39)
7. Brooke Pancake, $63.6K (#98), 72.953 (#91), 2.51 (#106), 61.6% (#120), 1.836 (#73)
8. Katie Burnett, $53.4K (#99), 71.909 (#42), 3.27 (#106), 65.3% (#82), 1.807 (#31)
9. Felicity Johnson, $27.8K (#114), 73.548 (#120), 2.88 (#101), 67.2% (#49), 1.933 (#147)
10. Julia Boland, $22.7K (#122), 74.000 (#132), 2.82 (#116), 54.9% (#142), 1.821 (#50)
11. Daniela Iacobelli, $17.3K (#130), 73.688 (#123), 2.47 (#131), 63.0% (#109), 1.909 (#144)
12. Sara-Maude Juneau, $15.8K (#131), 74.441 (#138), 2.68 (#121), 60.6 (#128), 1.881 (#135)
13. Lauren Doughtie, $14.2K (#133), 74.735 (#139), 2.59 (#125), 64.1% (#103), 1.898 (#140)
14. Paz Echeverria, $13.9K (#134), 72.300 (#57), 3.05 (#143), 70.8% (#21), 1.863 (#111)
15. Sue Kim, $11.5K (#140), 73.063 (n.r.), 2.63 (#152), 60.0% (n.r.), 1.885 (n.r.)
16. Breanna Elliott, $11.1K (#141), 74.857 (n.r.), 2.43 (#156), 52.0% (n.r.), 1.909 (n.r.)
17. Kayla Mortellaro, $9.9K (#143), 75.727 (#145), 2.18 (#150), 57.6% (#140), 1.899 (#141)
18. Nicole Smith, $5.7K (#150), 74.333 (#135), 2.83 (#138), 64.4% (#96), 1.885 (#137)
19. Victoria Elizabeth, $3.9K (#154), 75.652 (#144), 2.52 (#145), 57.7% (#139), 1.866 (#118)
20. Taylore Karle, $3.4K (#155), 76.536 (#147), 2.25 (#141), 49.8% (#146), 1.879 (#129)
21. Kelly Jacques, $3.4K (#156), 73.100 (n.r.), 2.08 (#161), 63.0% (n.r.), 1.825 (n.r.)
22. Inhong Lim, $3.4K (#156), 72.667 (n.r.), 2.17 (#169), 63.0% (n.r.), 1.853 (n.r.)
23. Brianna Do, $0 (n.r.), 72.500 (n.r.), 1.50 (#188), 64.0% (n.r.), 1.913 (n.r.)
24. Frances Bondad, $0 (n.r.), 72.900 (n.r.), 2.38 (#158), 67.0% (n.r.), 1.850 (n.r.)
25. Jiayun Li, $0 (n.r.), 73.000 (n.r.), 2.67 (#166), 59.0% (n.r.), 1.781 (n.r.)
26. Marina Alex, $0 (n.r.), 73.333 (n.r.), 2.50 (#168), 72.0% (n.r.), 1.910 (n.r.)
27. Alejandra Llaneza, $0 (n.r.), 73.500 (n.r.), 2.56 (#162), 67.0% (n.r.), 1.806 (n.r.)
28. Garrett Phillips, $0 (n.r.), 73.500 (n.r.), 2.00 (#182), 69.0% (n.r.), 1.920 (n.r.)
29. Stephanie Na, $0 (n.r.), 74.750 (n.r.), 2.00 (#175), 42.0% (n.r.), 1.900 (n.r.)
30. Jordan Hardy, $0 (n.r.), 75.000 (n.r.), 2.50 (#181), 83.0% (n.r.), 2.200 (n.r.)
31. Marina Stuetz, $0 (n.r.), 75.111 (#142), 3.22 (#145), 59.0% (#136), 1.838 (#76)
32. Perrine Delacour, $0 (n.r.), 75.500 (n.r.), 2.00 (#182), 69.0% (n.r.), 2.000 (n.r.)
33. Marita Engzelius, $0 (n.r.), 76.167 (n.r.), 2.17 (#169), 55.0% (n.r.), 1.949 (n.r.)
34. Esther Choe, $0 (n.r.), 76.368 (#146), 2.20 (#151), 39.8% (#147), 1.809 (#35)
35. Haley Millsap, $0 (n.r.), 76.500 (n.r.), 2.29 (#166), 53.0% (n.r.), 1.842 (n.r.)
Career Ranking: Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately, the members of the Class of 2013 started at the same time, even if some of them have not had full status last season or this one (although that in itself is an indication of how someone's career has been going!). What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now--although Thomas Atkins posted an inflation-adjusted LPGA Career Top 50 as of the end of the 2008 season and a Best of All Time ranking over at Hound Dog LPGA. In any case, building on an old analysis of finishes, I've developed a career ranking formula (the details you can check out on my spreadsheet), but since that includes only the top 4 players in the class, I'll give the details on the lower-ranked players here.
NAME/$$/START/MAJOR/WIN/TOP3/TOP10/TOP20/WD/DQ/MC/FIN (RATE)
1. Caroline Masson, 582 points.
2. Ayako Uehara, 522.
3. Chie Arimura, 502.
4. Moriya Jutanugarn, 489.
5. Austin Ernst, $.14M (#424), 23/0/0/0/2/2/0/0/10/13 (.565)
6. Lisa McCloskey, $.12M (#443), 20/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/5/15 (.750)
7. Brooke Pancake, $.06M (#521), 17/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/11/6 (.353)
8. Katie Burnett, $.05M (#534), 11/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/5/6 (.545)
9. Felicity Johnson, $.03M (#591), 17/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/11/6 (.353)
10. Julia Boland, $.02M (#603), 15/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/11/4 (.267)
11. Daniela Iacobelli, $.02M (#624), 15/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/13/2 (.133)
12. Sara-Maude Juneau, $.02M (#631), 15/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/11/4 (.267)
13. Lauren Doughtie, $.01M (#642), 15/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/12/3 (.200)
14. Paz Echeverria, $.01M (#644), 9/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/7/2 (.222)
15. Sue Kim, $.01M (#657), 7/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/5/2 (.286)
16. Breanna Elliott, $.01M (#658), 7/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/5/2 (.286)
17. Kayla Mortellaro, $9.9K (#666), 11/0/0/0/0/0/1/0/7/3 (.273)
18. Nicole Smith, $5.7K (#693), 11/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/9/2 (.182)
19. Victoria Elizabeth, $3.9K (#705), 12/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/11/1 (.083)
20. Taylore Karle, $3.4K (#709), 14/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/13/1 (.071)
21. Kelly Jacques, $3.4K (#710), 5/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/1 (.200)
22. Inhong Lim, $3.4K (#710), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/1/1 (.500)
23. Jiayun Li, $0 (n.r.), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/1/1 (.500)
24. Alejandra Llaneza, $0 (n.r.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/1 (.333)
25. Perrine Delacour, $0 (n.r.), 1/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/1/0 (.000)
26. Brianna Do, $0 (n.r.), 1/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/1/0 (.000)
27. Garrett Phillips, $0 (n.r.), 1/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/1/0 (.000)
28. Jordan Hardy, $0 (n.r.), 1/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/1/0 (.000)
29. Stephanie Na, $0 (n.r.), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/0 (.000)
30. Marina Alex, $0 (n.r.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/3/0 (.000)
31. Haley Millsap, $0 (n.r.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/3/0 (.000)
32. Marita Engzelius, $0 (n.r.), 4/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/0 (.000)
33. Frances Bondad, $0 (n.r.), 6/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/0 (.000)
34. Marina Stuetz, $0 (n.r.), 11/0/0/0/0/0/2/0/9/0 (.000)
35. Esther Choe, $0 (n.r.), 12/0/0/0/0/0/3/0/9/0 (.000)
Other Career Measures: Rolex Rankings points (as of 1/13/14) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index score (as of 1/12/14) and rank, International Wins (on JLPGA, KLPGA, LET as of 1/13/14): This is a way of seeing how those '13ers who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, JLPGA, KLPGA, LET, ALPG, Symetra Tour, LETAS, and CLPGA; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on the LPGA, JLPGA, LET, and Symetra Tour).
1. Caroline Masson, 1.79 (#60), 72.70 (#122); 1 (LET)
2. Chie Arimura, 1.61 (#66), 72.91 (#135); 13 (JLPGA)
3. Ayako Uehara, 1.25 (#84), 71.08 (#41); 3 (JLPGA)
4. Moriya Jutanugarn, 1.24 (#85), 71.82 (#77); 0
5. Austin Ernst, .70 (#162), 73.35 (#164); 0
6. Lisa McCloskey, .54 (#194), 72.61 (#118); 0
7. Katie Burnett, .49 (#209), 73.20 (#150); 0
8. Brooke Pancake, .29 (#271), 74.37 (#227); 0
9. Felicity Johnson, .24 (#291), 74.62 (#254); 2 (LET)
10. Jiayun Li, .21 (#313), n.r.; 0
11. Stephanie Na, .19 (#331), 76.12 (#354); 0
12. Daniela Iacobelli, .16 (#350), 75.67 (#332); 0
13. Alejandra Llaneza, .16 (#333), 73.96 (#198); 0
14. Sue Kim, .14 (#372), 73.95 (#197); 0
15. Esther Choe, .13 (#384), 77.42 (#405); 0
16. Julia Boland, .13 (#386), 75.14 (#306); 0
17. Marina Alex, .11 (#412), 73.60 (#176); 0
18. Frances Bondad, .11 (#415), 76.08 (#351); 1 (LET)
19. Perrine Delacour, .11 (#419), 74.78 (#273); 0
20. Paz Echeverria, .07 (#473), 74.62 (#253); 0
21. Breanna Elliott, .07 (#486), 76.33 (#362); 0
22. Sara-Maude Juneau, .09 (#439), 75.31 (#312); 0
23. Lauren Doughtie, .07 (#496), 75.88 (#339); 0
24. Victoria Elizabeth, .05 (#532), 76.95 (#394); 0
25. Nicole Smith, .04 (#575), 75.53 (#352); 0
26. Kayla Mortellaro, .02 (#659), 75.69 (n.r.); 0
27. Garrett Phillips, .02 (#714), 75.48 (#319); 0
28. Inhong Lim, .01 (#734), 76.50 (#368); 0
29. Brianna Do, .01 (#744), 75.73 (#336); 0
30. Marita Engzelius, .01 (#766), 76.86 (n.r.); 0
31. Kelly Jacques, n.r., 74.72 (#268); 0
32. Haley Millsap, n.r., 76.18 (#358); 0
33. Taylore Karle, n.r., 76.94 (#393); 0
34. Jordan Hardy, n.r., 78.31 (#438); 0
35. Marina Stuetz, n.r., 76.17 (n.r.); 0
No comments:
Post a Comment