Ranking the LPGA's Rookie Class of 2012, January 2014 Edition

This is the 1st time I'm ranking the Class of 2012, the 1st of 3 classes in what I'm calling the LPGA's "Generation Prodigy."  We've got at least 2 of 'em here--and potentially more.  But the vast majority of the '12ers have also been struggling a lot during their 1st 2 years on tour--and, frankly, even among the top players, probably only Lizette Salas has overachieved and Mo Martin, Jacqui Concolino, and Thidapa Suwannapura have exceeded expectations.  Even so, 20 out of the class's 33 members will have some kind of status on the LPGA next season.  (Compare that to 17 from the Class of 2011, 13 from the Class of 2010, 12 from the Class of 2009, and 10 from the classes of 2008, 2007, and 2006.)  Is that evidence that attrition is inevitable in the next few years or a sign that the talent in this class really runs deep?  Only time will tell!

Simply the Best

1. So Yeon Ryu:  In the last few years, she's proven she's one of the best golfers in the world (she's in the top 7 on most every performance stat I track on my career ranking spreadsheet--and tops in top-10 rate!), but she's been snakebit when it comes to winning lately, getting beaten by 2 eagles in 10 holes on a September Sunday on the KLPGA last season and just missing the cigar multiple times as an LPGA member.  I think 2014 is the year she jumps out of that particular rut.  It's just a matter of getting the key putts to drop.

The Contender

2. Lexi Thompson:  Those 2 wins late in 2013 have gotten everyone excited she's going to go on a tear in 2014.  Count me in.  As her short game continues to mature, look for her birdie rate to skyrocket and her putts per green in regulation rate to plunge--and her victory total to increase!

The Next Best

3. Lizette Salas:  She had a hot putter in 2013 and rode it across the $1M mark in career winnings in only her 2nd season on tour.  If she can keep improving her ball-striking, watch out for her in 2014!
4. Carlota Ciganda:  Even without really hitting her stride as a professional, she's racked up 3 wins on the LET.  I'd like to see her play less over there in 2014, however, as it's not a Solheim Cup year and she can do more to secure a spot on the 2015 European team by gaining experience against the best in the world and moving up the Rolex Rankings.  Her 2013 performance stats on the LPGA were kind of blah, but she showed what she's capable of with her silver in Texas, bounceback in the Solheim Cup, and 5-event top-25 run at the end of the season (broken by a disappointing Titleholders).

Quantum Leap Candidates

5. Danielle Kang:  It's been a real struggle for the 2-time U.S. Women's Amateur champion on the LPGA, but she's never lost her confidence or sense of humor.  In the wake of her father's recent passing, 2014 is going to be a really emotional year for her and her many fans.  I wish her the best!  (And a hot putter!) 
6. Mo Martin:  She's a classic precision player who's gotten more attention for her awesome grandfather and skill with the long putter than her unexpectedly strong start out of the gates on the LPGA after years toiling away on the Symetra Tour (where she's won 3 times and is 6th on their career money list).  2014 is going to be a key season for her, as she can either keep improving all aspects of her game and establish herself as a bona fide LPGA regular or raise doubts about her future on tour....
7. Sydnee Michaels:  I've been really high on her from the get-go, but she has yet to really click on the LPGA.  Hopefully she got that mid-season sophomore slump out of her system and will be ready for 2014!

On the Bottom, Looking Up

8. Jacqui Concolino:  Her performance stats were really unimpressive last season, but I see signs that her top 5 in Ohio was not a fluke.  Let's see if I'm right!
9. Thidapa Suwannapura:  Another player whose performance stats make her achievements as an LPGA member rather surprising.  Whereas Michaels and Concolino have had more high finishes than her, Suwannapura has a made-cut rate that suggests she has a real future on the LPGA.  Only time will tell!
10. Rebecca Lee-Bentham:  That T11 at the Evian is intriguing, but her overall performance stats raise plenty of red flags.  Let's see what she brings to the table in season 3.
11. Mi Hyang Lee:  Her top 20 at the Evian last season has been the only real bright spot in her LPGA career thus far, but it kept her in the top 100 on the 2013 money list, so she'll have a full schedule in 2014.
12. Maude-Aimee Leblanc:  Although she was unable to improve on her #148 position on the 2014 LPGA Priority Status List at Q-School (where she finished T32), she should get plenty of starts.
13. Kathleen Ekey:  Her T7 finish at Q-School jumped her about 20 spots up the priority list, which means she has a chance to build on her surprising ability to make birdies despite having a cold putter last season.  Points to a pretty accurate iron game!
14. Sandra Changkija:  Her dominating victory in the SunCoast Series kickoff event for 2014 is a good sign, but even more impressive is that she managed to break 70 twice on a par 73 in very cold conditions.  It's a good sign for someone like Ekey who averaged over 3 birdies for round despite taking over 1.86 putts per green in regulation.  
15. Cydney Clanton:  She finished 5th on the 2013 Symetra Tour money list so will have a full dance card in 2014 for the 1st time as an LPGA member.  Let's see what she does with the opportunity.
16. Victoria Tanco:  At #173 on the priority status list, her ability to get LPGA starts is dependent on (many) others ahead of her on the list deciding not to start.  Most likely she'll be trying to regain her confidence on the Symetra Tour in 2014 after a bruisingly bad 2013 on the LPGA.
17. P.K. Kongkraphan:  She finished 1st on the Symetra Tour money list last season, so like Clanton has a great chance to show what she's capable of on the LPGA this season.
18. Katy Harris:  At #181 on the priority status list, this mother of 2 is basically in the same boat as Tanco, just a bit further from the exit.
19. Veronica Felibert:  She's another one who makes more birdies than you'd expect from her other performance stats.  And at #153 on the priority status list, she's a lot closer to the exit than Tanco or Harris.
20. Jane Rah:  At #158...well, you get the picture.
21. Hanna Kang:  At #152...you know the drill.  It's a pity that she hasn't gotten more starts on the LPGA or done more with the ones she's had, as her performance stats last season were much better than many of her peers in this category and the next.

On the Outside, Looking In

22. Numa Gulyanamitta:  I thought from the quality of her collegiate record that she'd make a smooth transition to the professional ranks.  But after badly missing the 72-hole cut at the final stage of Q-School, she's heading to the Symetra Tour this coming season.
23. Min Seo Kwak:  She finished T65 at Q-School, which means she has great status on the Symetra Tour for 2013.
24. Mitsuki Katahira:  She finished T60 at Q-School, so ditto.
25. Hannah Yun:  She finished 64th at Q-School, so ditto again.
26. Karlin Beck:  She finished T49 at Q-School (1 shot out of Category 17--ouch!), so ditto her up, too.
27. Valentine Derrey:  She played 15 times on the LET in 2013 and broke through with a bronze and 2 silvers late in the season, which bumped her up to #10 on their Order of Merit.  She didn't enter LPGA Q-School, so she'll be focusing on the LET in 2014.
28. Tzu-Chi Lin:  She just missed the 72-hole cut at the final stage of LPGA Q-School, so she'll have Symetra Tour status this coming season.
29. Elisa Serramia:  She was T136 in LPGA Q-School's 2nd stage, so will have marginal status at best on the Symetra Tour in 2014.
30. Lacey Agnew:  She missed the 72-hole cut at the final stage of LPGA Q-School, so she'll have Symetra Tour status this coming season.
31. Kirby Dreher:  She was T177 in LPGA Q-School's 2nd stage, so will have marginal status at best on the Symetra Tour in 2014.
32. Stephanie Kono:  After missing the cut in all 14 of her LPGA starts, she didn't enter Q-School.  She will have strong Symetra Tour status in 2014 based on her #55 position on their 2013 money list.

Status Unknown

33. Juliana Murcia Ortiz:  She didn't enter LPGA or LET Q-School.  Finishing #116 on the Symetra Tour's money list last year will give her some kind of status there this year, but it'll be very low on their priority list when it's released.

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the January 2014 ranking.

2013 LPGA Money List (rank), scoring average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on five key indicators of how well someone played last season--how much money they won, how they scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, how many greens they hit in regulation on average per round, and how many putts per green in regulation they took on average, plus how they ranked in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are the most important I've incorporated into my career ranking (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the immediate past and future.

NAME/$$/SCORING AVE./BIRDIES PER ROUND/GIR/PPGIR (ranks)
1. So Yeon Ryu, $1.28M (#5), 70.294 (#4), 3.99 (#6), 73.3% (#2), 1.788 (#20)
2. Lexi Thompson, $1.21M (#6), 70.881 (#18), 3.68 (#15), 73.9% (#8), 1.825 (#55)
3. Lizette Salas, $759.3K (#15), 70.709 (#12), 3.76 (#9), 70.5% (#24), 1.759 (#3)
4. Carlota Ciganda, $355.9K (#40), 71.985 (#49), 3.15 (#58), 67.8% (#43), 1.816 (#44)
5. Mo Martin, $319.2K (#46), 71.702 (#34), 2.92 (#41), 66.0% (#67), 1.820 (#47)
6. Danielle Kang, $221.6K (#57), 72.176 (#54), 3.05 (#52), 66.7% (#57), 1.841 (#84)
7. Jacqui Concolino, $150.6K (#70), 73.449 (#114), 2.88 (#59), 62.9% (#111), 1.840 (#80)
8. Thidapa Suwannapura, $137.6K (#73), 72.969 (#93), 2.87 (#65), 64.3% (#97), 1.841 (#82)
9. Rebecca Lee-Bentham, $118.4K (#80), 72.923 (#90), 2.83 (#89), 61.4% (#121), 1.837 (#74)
10. Sydnee Michaels, $107.4K (#84), 72.879 (#88), 2.97 (#78), 64.6% (#94), 1.823 (#53)
11. Mi Hyang Lee, $69.2K (#92), 72.978 (#95), 2.82 (#95), 63.4% (#106), 1.859 (#106)
12. Sandra Changkija, $52.7K (#100), 72.583 (#72), 3.06 (#105), 65.4% (#80), 1.866 (#117)
13. Kathleen Ekey, $50.9K (#101), 73.047 (#99), 3.09 (#97), 67.4% (#47), 1.864 (#115)
14. Maude-Aimee Leblanc, $29.8K (#111), 73.281 (#107), 2.94 (#120), 62.8% (#112), 1.856 (#102)
15. Hanna Kang, $25.3K (#116), 72.438 (n.r.), 3.13 (#149), 65% (n.r.), 1.835 (n.r.)
16. Veronica Felibert, $24.6K (#118), 73.308 (#108), 3.05 (#99), 65.7% (#73), 1.876 (#133)
17. Jane Rah, $20.9K (#125),73.152 (#103), 2.67 (#121), 59.1% (#135), 1.863 (#114)
18. Min Sweo Kwak, $8.9K (#146), 72.200 (n.r.), 3.08 (#154), 69% (n.r.), 1.839 (n.r.)
19. Karlin Beck, $5.0K (#152), 75.138 (#143), 2.21 (#139), 61.9% (#117), 1.910 (#145)
20. Mitsuki Katahira, $4.7K (#153), 72.667 (n.r.), 3.08 (#155), 67% (n.r.), 1.814 (n.r.)
21. Victoria Tanco, $3.2K (#158), 75.818 (n.r.), 2.36 (#157), 51% (n.r.), 1.780 (n.r.)
22. Cydney Clanton, $3.1K (#159), 73.500 (n.r.), 2.13 (#165), 77% (n.r.), 1.973 (n.r.)
23. Hannah Yun, $0 (n.r.), 77.300 (n.r.), 1.90 (#164), 49% (n.r.), 1.921 (n.r.)
24. Numa Gulyanamitta, $0 (n.r.), 74.893 (#140), 2.96 (#130), 54.6% (#144), 1.833 (#67)

Career Ranking:  Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately, the members of the Class of 2012 started at the same time, even if some of them have not had full status every season (although that in itself is an indication of how someone's career has been going!). What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now--although Thomas Atkins posted an inflation-adjusted LPGA Career Top 50 as of the end of the 2008 season and a Best of All Time ranking over at Hound Dog LPGA. In any case, building on an old analysis of finishes, I've developed a career ranking formula (the details you can check out on my spreadsheet), but since that includes only the top 6 players in the class, I'll give the details on the lower-ranked players here.

NAME/$$/START/MAJOR/WIN/TOP3/TOP10/TOP20/WD/DQ/MC/FIN (RATE)
1. So Yeon Ryu, 2464 points.
2. Lexi Thompson, 1842.
3. Lizette Salas, 969.
4. Carlota Ciganda, 768.
5. Danielle Kang, 471.
6. Mo Martin, 432.
7. Sydnee Michaels, $.30M (#349), 40/0/0/0/2/6/0/0/17/23 (.575)
8. Jacqui Concolino, $.21M (#392), 34/0/0/0/1/4/0/0/17/17 (.500)
9. Thidapa Suwannapura, $.14M (#426), 22/0/0/0/1/3/0/0/7/15 (.682)
10. Rebecca Lee-Bentham, $.13M (#433), 32/0/0/0/0/2/0/0/20/12 (.375)
11. Veronica Felibert, $.13M (#437), 31/0/0/0/1/1/1/0/18/12 (.387)
12. Sandra Changkija, $.09M (#484), 26/0/0/0/2/2/0/0/18/8 (.308)
13. Jane Rah, $.08M (#489), 31/0/0/0/1/1/0/1/21/9 (.290)
14. Mi Hyang Lee, $.08M (#499), 22/0/0/0/0/1/1/0/10/10 (.455)
15. Maude-Aimee Leblanc, $.07M (#503), 24/0/0/0/0/0/1/1/12/10 (.417)
16. Numa Gulyanamitta, $.07M (#506), 30/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/21/9 (.300)
17. Kathleen Ekey, $.06M (#523), 31/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/20/11 (.355)
18. Victoria Tanco, $.03M (#584), 22/0/0/0/0/0/1/1/14/6 (.273)
19. Cydney Clanton, $.03M (#586), 18/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/13/5 (.278)
20. Hannah Yun, $.03M (#588), 20/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/16/4 (.200)
21. Hanna Kang, $.03M (#592), 13/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/11/2 (.154)
22. Min Seo Kwak, $.02M (#627), 12/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/10/2 (.167)
23. Karlin Beck, $.02M (#636), 28/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/23/5 (.179)
24. Mitsuki Katahira, $7.7K (#677), 9/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/7/2 (.222)
25. Elisa Serramia, $7.0K (#683), 13/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/12/1 (.077)
26. P.K. Kongkraphan, $5.2K (#696), 5/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/1 (.200)
27. Valentine Derrey, $3.1K (#717), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/1 (.333)
28. Katy Harris, $3.0K (#718), 6/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/5/1 (.167)
29. Lacey Agnew, $3.0K (#719), 7/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/1 (.143)
30. Tzu-Chi Lin, $3.0K (#723), 4/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/3/1 (.250)
31. Juliana Murcia Ortiz, $0 (n.r.), 1/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/1/0 (.000)
32. Kirby Dreher, $0 (n.r.), 5/0/0/0/0/0/1/0/4/0 (.000)
33. Stephanie Kono, $0 (n.r.), 14/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/14/0 (.000)

Other Career Measures: Rolex Rankings points (as of 1/6/14) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index score (as of 1/5/14) and rank, International Wins (on JLPGA, KLPGA, LET as of 1/11/14): This is a way of seeing how those '12ers who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, JLPGA, KLPGA, LET, ALPG, Symetra Tour, LETAS, and CLPGA; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on the LPGA, JLPGA, LET, and Symetra Tour).

1. So Yeon Ryu, 6.56 (#5), 69.55 (#7); 8 (KLPGA)
2. Lexi Thompson, 4.86 (#9), 70.43 (#22); 1 (LET)
3. Lizette Salas, 3.70 (#20), 70.08 (#14); 0
4. Carlota Ciganda, 2.51 (#39), 71.28 (#48); 3 (LET)
5. Mo Martin, 1.21 (#89), 71.67 (#66); 0
6. Danielle Kang, 1.13 (#99), 72.45 (#109); 0
7. Thidapa Suwannapura, .93 (#123), 72.73 (#125); 1 (LET)
8. Valentine Derrey, .77 (#148), 72.99 (#141); 0
9. Sydnee Michaels, .75 (#154), 73.79 (#184); 0
10. Jacqui Concolino, .74 (#156), 74.21 (#212); 0
11. Rebecca Lee-Bentham, .53 (#204), 73.89 (#191); 0
12. P.K. Kongkraphan, .39 (#238), 73.57 (#174); 0
13. Sandra Changkija, .36 (#253), 74.28 (#221); 0
14. Mi Hyang Lee, .34 (#257), 73.84 (#188); 0
15. Jane Rah, .24M (#293), 74.69 (#263); 0
16. Veronica Felibert, .23 (#300), 74.53 (#243); 0
17. Kathleen Ekey, .20 (#321), 73.99 (#200); 0
18. Maude-Aimee Leblanc, .20 (#326), 74.41 (#231); 0
19. Hanna Kang, .15 (#358), 75.41 (#315); 0
20. Hannah Yun, .13 (#388), 76.12 (#355); 0
21. Junthima Gulyanamitta, .13 (#394), 76.54 (#369); 0
22. Tzu-Chi Lin, .12 (#406), 75.56 (n.r.); 0
23. Katy Harris, .08 (#468), 76.55 (#327); 0
24. Cydney Clanton, .07 (#474), 74.71 (#267); 0
25. Min Seo Kwak, .06 (#504), 74.69 (#264); 0
26. Mitsuki Katahira, .05 (#529), 75.67 (#334); 0
27. Victoria Tanco, .04 (#586), 75.97 (n.r.); 0
28. Stephanie Kono, .02 (#694), 76.89 (#387); 0
29. Lacey Agnew, .03 (#643), 76.82 (#383); 0
30. Karlin Beck, .01 (#775), 76.48 (#367); 0
31. Juliana Murcia Ortiz, .01 (#810), 74.67 (n.r.); 0
32. Kirby Dreher, .00 (#833), 78.22 (#435); 0
33. Elisa Serramia, n.r., 76.72 (#379); 0