Monday, June 2, 2008

The LPGA's Top Rivalries

Enough has changed since last November when I tracked the career winnings of several generations of current LPGA stars and tallied up victory totals that it's worth updating and reframing that data. With Lorena Ochoa dealing with the loss of her uncle, I hope the golfy media gives her a break and turns their attention to other players while she's grieving. Plus, with Annika Sorenstam's retirement looming at the end of the season, it's never too early to start feeding them some story lines for a post-world-#1/#1A-duel LPGA.

The Clashes of the Titans

Last season, Lorena Ochoa beat Se Ri Pak to the $10M mark in career winnings; this season, she's on pace to pass her in total victories. She's already passed Juli Inkster on the career money list and has an outside chance to catch her in career victories by the end of this year (she zoomed by her last season in Sorenstam Era victories). More immediately in her sights is Karrie Webb's #2 spot on the career money list--and thanks to Webb's missed 3-footer in the playoff Sunday that lost her the playoff to Seon Hwa Lee (on whom more in a sec), she'll be that much easier for Ochoa to catch. Ochoa still won't have a chance to surpass Webb's 7 majors during the Sorenstam Era, but if she somehow keeps her winning streak in them going next week, she can catch Inkster at 4 and even Pak at 5--unless both their strong play from this past week carries over to some more major magic for the Hall of Famers.

Yup, Ochoa has transcended her generation and deserves to be considered in relation to her fellow active Hall of Famers. But perhaps the clash that matters the most to her is the one I already alluded to with Annika for wins, majors, winnings, Player of the Year, and Vare Trophy this season. What a great way to cap off the Sorenstam Era (1994-2008) and mark the transition fully into the Ochoa Era (2003-).

But perhaps the most important message to take from the repeatedly postponed Lorena-Annika showdown is the way life and family overshadow the game and help keep its significance in perspective.

Battles of the Veteran Stars

With Sorenstam out of the picture in 2009, many of her contemporaries who have lived in her shadow will have a chance to enter the limelight and be recognized for the fantastic golfers they are.

None of them are very likely to catch Se Ri Pak or Laura Davies in career victories or majors, but 2 of them have a chance to catch up to them in career winnings. Cristie Kerr beat Mi Hyun Kim to the $8M mark at the Sybase, but Kim passed her at Corning, so of course Kerr had to pull ahead by a few hundred dollars at the Ginn Tribute. Separated by less than $20K on this season's money list, Kerr and Kim might just play that "anything you can do I can do better" game right past Davies on the career money list this season and start seriously thinking about surmounting the bar set by Pak's once unsurmountable but now still-shy-of-$10M career winnings. (Pak might have something to say about that, however, now that she got her 2nd top 10 of the season in convincing fashion.)

Similarly, Lorie Kane's lead in career winnings over Pat Hurst, Rachel Hetherington, and Catriona Matthew seemed safe at the start of the season, but she's stalled well shy of the $7M mark while Matthew makes a charge, Hurst makes a comeback, and Hetherington shows signs of one.

Speaking of Hetherington, she has as many career wins as Kim (8) and they both trail Kerr only by 2. Plus, they trail her only by 1 major (and Sherri Steinhauer by 2).

With Carin Koch on the comeback trail, perhaps she too can rejoin the battle between Matthew and Hurst for best of the Class of '95, although she'll have as much trouble cutting into Matthew's $1M lead on her as Matthew will have in closing a similar gap on Hurst, who became the first in their class to cross the $6M barrier this season.

Much closer is the ongoing duel between Class of '98ers Sophie Gustafson and Maria Hjorth--Gustafson recently beat Hjorth to the $4M mark, but Hjorth still has a chance to beat her to $5M and 5 wins now (thanks to Gustafson's Sunday collapse).

Who Will Be the Karrie Webb of the Ochoa Era?

I think it's safe to say that the Classes of 2000-2005 will be known as the Ochoa Generation. Just as Annika zoomed by established and young stars in her time, Lorena has outdistanced Jeong Jang, Grace Park, Hee-Won Han, Natalie Gulbis, Candie Kung, Gloria Park, and Angela Stanford. Unlike Annika, Lorena has some classmates who look to compete with them for the #2 spot, most notably Suzann Pettersen, Christina Kim, and Stacy Prammanasudh. And where Annika had Karrie Webb, Se Ri Pak, and Mi Hyun Kim come right out and challenge her when they entered the LPGA, Lorena is really being pushed only by Paula Creamer among those in the rookie classes immediately following hers. So that's 11 players vying to be the Lorena's Karrie Webb, so to speak.

In terms of career earnings, Jang ($5.67M) was the first to pass a struggling Grace Park ($5.27M), while Han ($5.08M) and Creamer ($4.88M) are hot on her heels. Meanwhile, Kung, Pettersen, and Stanford are making strong runs at Gulbis ($3.52M), who's gotten off to a terrible start to 2008 but leads the next tier, while Gloria Park still has a chance to get back in this race. Christina Kim ($2.81M) has opened up a larger lead on Prammanasudh at the head of the next tier, and few others in their tier seem to be able to keep pace with them.

In terms of career victories, Grace Park still leads with 1 major among her 6 victories, but Han and Creamer have a great chance to pass her in total wins and match her in majors before the end of this season. And Pettersen may pass them both, if her win two weeks ago on the LET is any indication. If Jang had any luck this season, she, too, would be near the head of the chase pack in wins. But if we're counting mightabeens, everyone ahead of her would also have higher totals in that column.

So of the 11 candidates for the Karrie Webb position, I think it's fair to say that Creamer, Pettersen, Han, and Jang are the leaders. Fortunately we'll have a long time to see whether any one of them is able to break from Ochoa's chase pack.

Which of the Young Guns Will Step Up?

With Ochoa hinting that her retirement could come as early as 2012-2014, it stands to reason that the next #1 will come from the Young Guns. Bill Jempty has made great use of his forum guestblogging at Newsweek to comment on this generation's rapid success--here's hoping others in the golfy media follow his lead. Jason Sobel is off to a good start this week!

There are already 7 players with less than 3 years of experience on the LPGA who have broken the $1M barrier, all but one of them Junior Mints: Seon Hwa Lee ($2.67M), Julieta Granada, Jee Young Lee, Morgan Pressel, Ai Miyazato, Brittany Lang, and Angela Park ($1.17M). Rookies Ya Ni Tseng ($.54M) and Na Yeon Choi ($.44M) are already on pace to get there as quickly, while it's too soon to tell who among Inbee Park, Sun Young Yoo, Kyeong Bae, In-Kyung Kim, Song-Hee Kim, Teresa Lu, Meaghan Francella, Minea Blomqvist, Eun-Hee Ji, Jane Park, Na On Min, H.J. Choi, Karin Sjodin, Ji Young Oh, Linda Wessberg, Momoko Ueda, Hee Young Park, Louise Friberg, this week's LET champion and money list leader Amy Yang, Sandra Gal, and Ashleigh Simon will keep pace with them over the next 5 years. Given the way golf and life can be, though, pretty much anyone from the Classes of 2006-2008 could step up and challenge their generation's Big 7 over the long haul.

Looking ahead even further, the Class of 2009 could include players of the caliber of Ji-Yai Shin, Sakura Yokomine, Miki Saiki, Miho Koga, Stacy Lewis, Tiffany Joh, Vicky Hurst, Mi Jung Hur, 2-time Futures Tour winner and current money leader Mindy Kim, and Michelle Wie. Plus there are impressive young guns on the KLPGA and JLPGA who just might join Amanda Blumenherst and other top worldwide amateurs in the Class of 2010, such as 2-time KLPGA winner and last year's rookie of the year Ha Neul Kim and this year's top contenders for ROY, So Yeon Ryu and He Yong Choi. You never know how heralded teenagers like Esther Choe, Hannah Yun, Kimberly Kim, and Mina Harigae will develop as young women, but certainly the early success of the under-25 crowd on the LPGA must be encouraging to them.

Ranking the Rivalries

By Rookie Class

1. The Gustafson-Hjorth race for leader of the Class of 1998 is closest in both wins (4-3) and winnings ($4.25M-$3.98M)--and the former's catastrophic finish yesterday ensured that it will remain close.

2. Gulbis and Kung (2002): $3.52M-#3.33M in Gulbis's favor, thanks in part to her near-top 10 this past week, but Kung is playing well this season--27th on the money list to Gulbis's 46th.

3. Choi and Tseng (2008): Looks like we have a real battle for ROY in '08! (And don't count out Momoko Ueda and Hee Young Park just yet. It's too bad Amy Yang wil be spending most of her time in Europe this season, but look for her to join the "Big 5" of her class next year.)

4. Seon Hwa Lee, Jee Young Lee, and Pressel (2006). Lee made a major statement this week in knocking off a Hall of Famer in what had been her worst season as a pro up till then. But Pressel ($1.67M) was 1st to win a major and Jee Young Lee ($1.90M) is her equal or superior in all the major stats. (And don't count out the resurgent Brittany Lang or the comeback-trailing-it Ai Miyazato just yet--the Junior Mint "Big 5" can still teach this year's rookies a thing or three.)

5. Jang and Park (2000): Jang has a clear and growing lead in winnings, Park in wins, but only the former has been playing at an elite level lately.

By Generation

1. Kim and Kerr for #2 in the Pak Generation (1997-1999): A decade into it, this one's still too close to call!

2. Creamer and Pettersen for #2 in the Ochoa Generation (2003-2005): Will this one turn into a race to supplant Ochoa as #1?

3. Jang, Park, and Han for the 2000-2002 generation lead: Grace Park was among the best in the world earlier this decade; Jang has been the past few years; and Han may have the most potential of the 3!

4. Seon Hwa Lee, Granada, Jee Young Lee, Pressel, Miyazato, Lang, Park, Tseng, Choi and many more for the 2006-2008 generation lead: With 2 of the 5 best rookie year rivalries, this one may turn out to be the most interesting, but it's also the most chaotic. Angela Park, Jee Young Lee, Morgan Pressel, Ya Ni Tseng, and Na Yeon Choi were the first among these players to get in contention this season, but Seon Hwa Lee was the first to seal the deal (it'll take more consistency from Louise Friberg to convince me her win wasn't a fluke and that she belongs in this race). Lee's the definite front-runner--for now....

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Ginn Tribute Sunday: Can Anyone Chase Down Gustafson?

The final round of the Ginn Tribute has started early in hopes of avoiding projected afternoon thunderstorms and Hound Dog is already camped out at the 14th green. To speed play, the players are going off in threesomes on both sides, as well. That means Hound Dog will get to enjoy seeing Stacy Prammanasudh, In-Kyung Kim, and Hee Young Park play together, as well as Brittay Lang and H.J. Choi, Mi Hyun Kim and Morgan Pressel, Angela Park and Candie Kung, Paula Creamer, Juli Inkster, and Sandra Gal, Jee Young Lee, Karin Sjodin, and Natalie Gulbis, Inbee Park and Ya Ni Tseng, and of course the final three groups:

Start Time: 9:05 AM
Teresa Lu
Se Ri Pak
Sun Young Yoo

Start Time: 9:16 AM
Jane Park
Song-Hee Kim
Seon Hwa Lee

Start Time: 9:27 AM
Sophie Gustafson
Na Yeon Choi
Karrie Webb


This is making me want to take the family to the Wegman's in Rochester....

So far, Futures Tour graduate and Junior Mint Allison Fouch is continuing her comeback from her 2nd-round 77 with 4 birdies in her first 6 holes; at -7, she'll need to keep it going if she wants to bag another top 10. Mhairi McKay is also off to a good start with her 4 straight birdies early on the back side. And Sophie Gustafson birdied the 1st hole for the 3rd time this week to extend her lead to 7. More later!

[Update 1 (10:06 am): How cool would it be if Se Ri Pak got into contention the first week playing her new clubs? She's now got a 53-hole bogey-free streak going and has made 2 birdies in her 1st 4 holes to get to -10!]

[Update 2 (10:18 am): Amy Yang has 1 hole left to play and a 4-shot lead on last year's LET rookie of the year Louise Stahle in the Ladies German Open. Michelle Wie birdied her last 2 holes to get to -14, good enough for T5 and 3 shots better than Anna Rawson, 4 shots better than Veronica Zorzi, and 5 shots better than Nina Reis.]

[Update 3 (10:28 am): Wonder how many people will get to double digits under par? And whether Gustafson will go lower than the -20 she's at already? Karrie Webb has also birdied 2 of the first 3 holes to keep pace with her, but the only one among the leaders making up ground on her so far is Minea Blomqvist, who shot her 3rd straight 33 on the front. Here's hoping she does better than her Saturday 40 on the back!]

[Update 4 (10:34 am): Song-Hee Kim and Jane Park are in a classic Super Soph dogfight--Kim has birdied 4 of her 1st 5 holes and like Park bogeyed the 2nd: Park has responded with 3 birdies of her own. They're both at -13, 1 shot behind Webb and 2 ahead of top Junior Mint Seon Hwa Lee, who's "only" birdied 2 of her 1st 5 holes. What a great next-to-last group!]

[Update 5 (10:38 am): It's official! Amy Yang got her 1st professional win and 2nd LET win (she won in Australia as an amateur Here's hoping she gets lot more sponsor's exemptions to play on the LPGA this season. If so, it'll give the LET money leader a tough dilemma, but a good one to have....]

[Update 6 (12:38 pm): Wow, I step out for a couple of hours to do some yard work and follow onechan around on her new bike with imoto in tow on the stroller while the Full Metal Archivist sleeps off her jet lag, and this thing turns into a tournament! Gustafson bogeyed the 4th and went bogey-bogey-double bogey as she made the turn, while Seon Hwa Lee kept making birdies and Na Yeon Choi made 3 of her own. So after 12 Gustafson has fallen to -15 and Lee and Choi are -14. Meanwhile, Jane Park and Song-Hee Kim remain at -13, now tied with Webb, and Se Ri Pak is only 4 off the lead with 4 holes left in her round.]

[Update 7 (12:57 pm): This must be my week! Ai Miyazato birdied 2 of her last 3 holes for a 69 to get to -6 for the tournament (T20 for now)--that's only her 3rd sub-70 round on the LPGA since last October's Samsung World Championship and it's her 1st tournament since last year's Corning Classic that she shot par or better in every round. It's not quite the 4 sub-70 rounds she shot then, but it's quite a big step on her comeback trail! Way to go, Ai-chan!]

[Update 8 (1:08 pm): Hound Dog has multiple reports up on action at the 14th--the last one on Inbee Park's double that dropped her back to -9. Check them out! Whoops, he just updated that last one to report that Song-Hee Kim birdied 14 to pull even with Seon Hwa Lee--and that he's following them!]

[Update 9 (1:17 pm): Hound Dog just missed Gustafson's 2nd double on the back! He's walking with a 3-some I thought would end up having a nice little match among each other maybe for 2nd, but it turns out Seon Hwa Lee is going for her 3rd LPGA win and Jane Park and Song-Hee Kim for their 1st!]

[Update 10 (1:21 pm): Well, this has to rank as a very disappointing tournament for Annika Sorenstam, Paula Creamer, Jeong Jang, and Mi Hyun Kim--all ended up T32 at -4. Or maybe the disappointment is mine, as their play is making my 2nd straight Pakpickers win look pretty doubtful, despite my lead after the second round. I'm counting on Teresa Lu and Ya Ni Tseng to finish strong to give me a chance!]

[Update 11 (1:31 pm): Onechan wanted to look at scorecards and I realized when I did that Song-Hee Kim had gotten to -14 on the front before tripling the par-3 8th. Amazing run on the back to get back there before her bogey on the 15th. Choi was also at -14 before she went bogey-double on the 13th and 14th. The pressure is getting to Jane Park, too, as she bogeyed the 15th to fall back to -12. We'll have to see if Webb and Gustafson can get their heads back on straight--they're still only 1 behind the Stone Buddha!]

[Update 12 (1:42 pm): Ouch, another bogey for the ROY leader Choi, dropping her back to -10 (tied with Se Ri Pak and Inbee Park) and giving her another painful learning experience. At least she's young--Gustafson did the same and she's too experienced to need any more of such lessons. She's now +7 for her last 12 holes.]

[Update 13 (1:44 pm): Oh no! Seon Hwa bogeyed the par-5 16th, dropping back into a tie with Webb and Kim. Park and Gustafson are now only 1 back!]

[Update 14 (2:01 pm): Hound Dog is at the 17th--says the wind is gusting to 25 mph! Whoever wins this thing is really going to have to earn it!]

[Update 15 (2:04 pm): Despite Choi's troubles, she still has the top rookie finish wrapped up--Ya Ni Tseng finished at -7. Momoko Ueda and Hee Young Park were way back at -2. Wonder if that's the order the ROY race will end in?]

[Update 16 (2:17 pm): Wow! Seon Hwa Lee birdied the 18th to get back to -14! She ended up 1 up on Kim and 3 up on Park. Webb needs a birdie and Gustafson an eagle to force a playoff....]

[Update 17 (2:21 pm): Cristie Kerr was the only other player in the field to match Lee's closing 67, which allowed her to move up to T25 (-5). Song-Hee Kim was the only other player in the top 20 to match Ai-chan and Fouch's 69s.]

[Update 18 (2:31 pm): Karrie Webb just showed why she's a Hall of Famer with a clutch birdie on the 18th to force a playoff! It's one of onechan's 3 most favorite golfers against one of my top 3!]

[Update 19 (2:55 pm): Hound Dog is the first to call the win for Seon Hwa Lee! It's her 3rd in 3 seasons on tour....]

[Update 20 (3:10 pm): So many players will be wondering why they couldn't have done what Lee did--most of whom I've already mentioned. But it's worth noting that Se Ri Pak ended her 58-hole bogey-free streak with 3 on the back to drop from -11 at the turn to -9 at the finish (T9 with Suzann Pettersen). Still, she's gotta be feeling even better than Michelle Wie--she's in next week's major's field at Bulle Rock!]

[Update 21 (3:32 pm): Here's Pete Iacobelli's AP story.]

[Update 22 (4:44 pm): How about that Amy Yang? She pulled a Mi Hyun Kim after her win, donating her entire winner's check to earthquake victims in China. Both she and Wie will now try to qualify for the U.S. Women's Open.]

[Update 23 (5:18 pm): Sounds like Seon Hwa and her coach came to the same conclusion as I did last week:

Mike my coach came here Monday through Wednesday, and we just work on lot of short game. He says short game is very important on the Tour, so I hit it straight, and I didn't miss a lot of fairways when I play out there so we work on short game and chipping and the putting, so I think that help a lot this week.]


[Update 24 (5:24 pm): Well, 7th place in the Pakpicker this week is what I get for not trusting Seon Hwa to get her short game going again as quickly as she ended up doing!]

[Update 25 (6/3/08, 3:43 pm): Great story in Hound Dog's tournament epilogue about meeting Lee's mom!]

[Update 26 (6/4/08, 11:52 am): Nice story on Lee's win by Ron Sirak, but it's the poorer for its failure to include Super Sophs Song-Hee Kim and Jane Park, Lee's playing partners who both had several chances to win.]

I May Have a New Favorite Golfer

I can't remember when I first heard of Hannah Yun, but she certainly got my attention with her announcement after the NCAA Championships that she was leaving the University of Florida...after her 1st year...at age 16. Normally I don't think such decisions are good ones, but I just discovered one reason she's put off the decision to turn pro for at least another year: according to a Futures Tour press release,

Yun has enrolled at the Academy of Art University in San Francisco where she will be pursuing a career in illustration and animation with her first class beginning next month.


How sweet is that?! The only thing that could possibly be sweeter is if Yun knows about Mostly Harmless--and is interested in becoming a co-blogger here!

(Don't worry, Moira, Ai-chan, Seon Hwa, Momo-chan, and the gang--there's room enough for another favorite golfer here.)

Kosaido Ladies Golf Cup Sunday: It's Iijima, After All

Akane Iijima jumped out to an early lead in the final round of the Kosaido Ladies Golf Cup, but Mayumi Nakajima made up 4 shots over the first 4 holes on the back and both players were tied at -12 after matching birdies on the par-3 15th. The very next hole decided the tournament, as Iijima made her 5th birdie of the day and Nakajima her 1st bogey. Both leaders ended up with strong 68s and didn't let anyone else get into contention, but in the end Iijima protected her 2-shot lead and earned her 4th career win on the JLPGA.

Here's how the rest of the leaders and notables ended up:

1st/-13 Iijima (62-73-68)
2nd/-11 Nakajima (67-70-68)
3rd/-7 Esther Lee (67-75-67)
T4/E Yasuko Satoh (73-72-67), Yui Kawahara (73-71-68)
T6/-3 Toshimi Kimura (75-71-67), Hyun-Ju Shin (69-76-68)
8th/-2 Miho Koga (72-73-69)
T9/-1 Shinobu Moromizato (71-76-68), Akiko Fukushima (70-77-68), Midori Yoneyama (72-72-71), Junko Omote (72-72-71)

T13/+1 Yuri Fudoh (73-74-69), Mie Nakata (71-75-70), Erina Hara (68-75-73)
T21/+2 Maiko Wakabayashi (68-78-72)
T25/+3 Ritsuko Ryu (70-75-74), Hiroko Yamaguchi (70-74-75)
T32/+4 Na Zhang (72-74-74)
T35/+5 Mi-Jeong Jeon (73-73-75)

Here's the updated money list:

1. Akiko Fukushima ¥45.81M
2. Miho Koga ¥40.73M
3. Ji-Hee Lee ¥37.70M
4. Sakura Yokomine ¥34.54M
5. Yukari Baba ¥33.53M
6. Eun-A Lim ¥32.28M
7. Bo-Bae Song ¥31.46M
8. Ayako Uehara ¥29.93M
9. Miki Saiki ¥28.97M
10. Hiroko Yamaguchi ¥25.44M

Iijima's win moved her up to #12 at ¥21.36M and continued the JLPGA's parity run, as everyone in the top 15 except Sakura Yokomine, Shinobu Moromizato, and Mi-Jeong Jeon have 1 win each.

Ginn Tribute Saturday: Gustafson Breaks Away

As Hound Dog and Pete Iacobelli report, the Ginn Tribute is now officially Sophie Gustafson's to lose after she posted her 3rd straight round in the mid-60s and begins Sunday's round at -18. Her moving day round was "only" a 67, thanks to a double bogey on the back, but 4 bogeys in 5 holes on the back from Karrie Webb moved her in exactly the wrong direction at exactly the wrong time and only 1 golfer who started the round at -8 did appreciably better: Na Yeon Choi, whose 68 pulled her even with Webb at -12 but actually lost her further ground on Gustafson.

The only other players to match Gustafson's score also left strokes out on the golf course. Jane Park bogeyed the 18th for the second day in a row to drop back to -11. Bogeys on the 7th and 15th held Song-Hee Kim to -10. For Karen Stupples, Diana D'Alessio, and Sandra Gal, their 67s were too late to get them a chance to get into contention, but they did move them up to T11 (-7), T15 (-6), and T20 (-5), respectively.

Some big names made some big moves, both positive and negative. Hall of Famer Se Ri Pak extended her bogey-free streak to 49 holes and leaped into at tie for 8th place at -8 with her 68, while Paula Creamer's 68 was her best round of the week thus far and got her into the top 20 at -5. Suzann Pettersen, however, had her worst round of the week, a 73, to drop out of the top 10 at -7. And so did Jeong Jang (72, -4, T26), Mi Hyun Kim (74, -4, T26), and Annika Sorenstam (75, -3, T34).

So it's possible that the streaky Gustafson could open the door for someone at -8 or better who comes up with a career round, but the biggest drama today may come from the races-within-the-race: whether Pak can make up 4 shots on Webb in the top Hall of Famer category, whether Yani Tseng can make up 5 shots on Choi in the best rookie category, whether Song-Hee Kim can make up that 1 shot on Jane Park in the top Super Soph category (or Inbee Park can come back from 2 down), whether Sun Young Yoo can make up that 1 shot on Seon Hwa Lee and Teresa Lu in the best Junior Mint category (or whether Jee Young Lee can come back from 3 down), whether Candie Kung can make up that 1 shot on Natalie Gulbis in the best among the Class of 2002 category, whether 2003 standout Stacy Prammanasudh can make up that 1 shot on her classmate Christina Kim (and whether either can catch Pettersen at -7), and whether ex-JLPGA stars Ai Miyazato or Momoko Ueda will come out on top. On the RiverTowne course, though, you never know--especially if the wind comes up!