Monday, January 5, 2009

The LPGA's Top Rivalries: Prime Time

It's time to continue this look at the LPGA's top rivalries by focusing on players in their prime: those who started their LPGA careers between 2000 and 2005. The name of the younger 3-year-cohort is obvious: with all due respect to Paula Creamer, the Classes of 2003-2005 are most definitely the Ochoa Generation. But I've called the Classes of 2000-2002 Seoul Sisters because their top 3 players are so closely matched. Let's work our way up to the top rivalries in these generations.

Meena Lee-Shi Hyun Ahn-Young Kim: The first cohort of Seoul Sisters to underachieve on the LPGA still has a lot of life left in them, despite being overshadowed by the trailblazers ahead of them and outpaced by the top Young Guns. Lee quietly broke the $500K barrier for the 3rd time in her 4 years on tour, but even though she posted the 2nd-best scoring average of her career she couldn't break into the top 30 on the money list in '08. Ahn was limited by injuries to only 18 LPGA events, even fewer than the 19 she played the previous 2 seasons, but whereas she had been able to be a pretty consistent top 30 player even on a very limited LPGA schedule by Korean standards in her 1st 4 seasons, she dropped all the way to #55 in '08. (I had made the mistake of predicting a #27 finish for her.) Kim, by contrast, played the most LPGA events in '08 of any year in her career (24), but only had 2 really good weeks all season and only squeaked into the top 50 by the thinnest of margins. Still, less than $200K in career winnings separate these 3 players, so perhaps they'll push each other to improve on their 6-7-8 standing in The Ochoa Generation.

Candie Kung-Angela Stanford-Natalie Gulbis: I'd like to say I had a feeling around this time last season that Kung was due for a breakout year, but actually it was more of a vague sense that 2007 was an anomaly for someone who had been a consistent top 30 player her entire career. It wasn't a strong enough feeling for me to put her in my preseason top 30 last January. For that matter, I was nervous putting Angela Stanford as high as #25--I doubted she'd be able to follow up on what had been her best-ever season. No, the player I had the most confidence in back then was Natalie Gulbis. Shows what I know! Now Kung is the most likely to be the 1st among these players to cross the $4M mark in career winnings and Stanford has the best odds among them of making the top 10 on the '09 money list, while Gulbis's future is dependent on the health of her back. Still, she's less than a half-million dollars behind Kung in career winnings and is coming off a long late-season rest, so as long as she stays healthy there's no reason this trio can't keep playing leapfrog for years to come and challenge Suzann Pettersen in the race to chase down Grace Park on the career money list in the process.

Christina Kim-Stacy Prammanasudh: Kim is the iron woman among the Americans on tour; 2008 was her 3rd 30-start season in her 6-year career (her lowest number of events ever was 28). This past year was her best in terms of top 10s and winnings, but that 3rd win still eluded her grasp and she barely made the top 30 on the money list. Still, '09 is a Solheim Cup year and she's motivated to improve on her 4th-place standing on the qualifying list for the U.S. team. Look for her to extend her lead on the career money list on Prammanasudh even further next season. Although Stacy P kept her scoring average below 72 for the 5th time in 6 LPGA seasons, she could barely manage a top 40 on the money list, breaking a streak of 2 straight top 20s. As a result, she was one of my big disappointments in '08 (she was my preseason pick for #12). Hopefully the pressure of fighting for one of those last Solheim Cup spots will help focus her game in '09. I'd love to see her bounce back in a big way.

Jeong Jang-Hee-Won Han-Grace Park: Jang moved to the head of her generation in 2008 on the strength of her 4th straight million-dollar season, but it was a year of mightabeens, as all 8 of her top 10s could easily have become her 3rd career win. She still trails Han and Park in that category by a significant margin, despite the former's pregnancy and new motherhood the last 2 seasons and the latter's back problems since mid-2004; with Jang's bad wrists, she, too, may face similar struggles in years to come. So it's still a toss-up who will define their generation, although the clock may be running out on Park's career, as 2009 is the last season her Kraft Nabisco Championship victory grants her entry into any tournament she wants to play as a Category 3 LPGA member.

Lorena Ochoa-Paula Creamer-Suzann Pettersen: It's not so much their position on the career money list as their ability to win in bunches that sets this trio apart from the rest of their generation. Death in the family limited Ochoa to 22 events and broke her $2M+/20+ top 10s/sub-70 scoring average streak at 2 (she "only" got 17 top 10s in '08), but she successfully defended her #1 status from a healthy Annika Sorenstam and was the most dominant player on the planet from March to May. Creamer and Pettersen are on the short list of players looking to unseat Ochoa in '09--along with veteran Cristie Kerr, Young Gun Ya Ni Tseng, and New Blood Ji-Yai Shin--but, man, even though this lead chase pack made up some ground on Ochoa in the summer and fall of '08, it would be an understatement to call what lies between her and them a gap. More like a chasm. Creamer would need a great season just to end up with half of Ochoa's career wins as of 2008, so imagine how fantastic her 2009 would have to be to get halfway to Ochoa's total at the end of it!

Sunday, January 4, 2009

The LPGA's Top Rivalries: Battles of the Veteran Stars

Things have changed a lot since I last checked in on the LPGA's Battles of the Veteran Stars. Injuries and pregnancy have helped open up some significant gaps in the longest-standing rivalries on tour.

Cristie Kerr-Mi Hyun Kim: Kim's recovery from off-season knee surgery took much longer than expected, limiting her to the fewest starts in her 10-year career on the LPGA in '08 (21 events, when her previous low had been 27) and causing her to withdraw from 3 events. As a result, she failed to break the $500K barrier for the 1st time in her career, missing the top 10 on the money list for only the 3rd time and the top 25 for the 1st. Meanwhile, Kerr rode a late-season charge, capped off by her 11th career victory, to her 5th straight million-dollar season, 5th straight appearance on the top 10 of the money list, and 4th double-digit top 10 total in the past 5 seasons. Is it any surprise, then, that Kerr's lead on the career money list ballooned from less than $50K at mid-season to around $650K right now? The real question is whether Kim's recent wedding means that 2009 will be her last childless season or that her husband's reported plans to try for the '12 Olympics (he got a gold in judo in Athens in '04) mean they both plan to focus on sports for the next 4 years. Kerr is almost certainly going to break the $9M barrier in career winnings before Kim, but what about the $10M mark?

Sophie Gustafson-Maria Hjorth: Gustafson made the top 30 on the money list for the 4th straight time and the 7th time in the last 9 years, but despite being the 2nd-most lucrative of her career this past season was bittersweet, at best. She came into the Ginn Tribute one of the hottest players on tour and got to -20 through 57 holes, but completely imploded over her last 11 (Seon Hwa Lee, who beat Karrie Webb in a playoff thanks to a missed tap-in by the Hall of Famer, beat Gustafson by 12 strokes that Sunday). It would be unfair to say she never recovered from that late spring meltdown, as she got 2 top 3s in her last 7 events, but as she had no other top 10s the rest of the season, it would be unrealistic to say she just shrugged it off. Still, she's opened up one of her biggest leads in career winnings on Hjorth in recent memory (just over $200K), thanks in part to the fact that her rival was playing while pregnant for a good part of the '08 season, but mostly to the fact that she, too, got beat out by a Young Gun on a Sunday (Ya Ni Tseng in the LPGA Championship). If Gustafson maintains her top-30 pace in '09, she'll be the 1st to break the $5M barrier in career winnings....

Lorie Kane-Pat Hurst: Kane must have used up her Category 2 exemption, as her name still appears on LPGA.com's list of players, but unless she makes a run at breaking the $7M mark in career winnings, 2009 will be her last season on tour (I can't see her going to Q-School, can you?). Hurst, meanwhile, had the highest scoring average of her career since her rookie season, but still broke the $250K barrier for the 8th time in her last 9 seasons. She may not have any more top 10 seasons left in her, but she's practically a lock for the top 40 in '09, so expect her to keep chipping away at Kane's lead in career winnings. She's got the game to be playing for several more years.

Catriona Matthew-Rachel Hetherington-Laura Diaz: Hetherington is the clear leader with 8 career wins, but the race to the $6M mark in career winnings is on, as Matthew has already caught her and Diaz is closing fast. The way Hetherington's career has been going, she may have trouble making the top 80 in '09, while Matthew and Diaz remain legitimate top 30 threats.

Next in our series: a look at players in their prime years, productivity-wise.

[Update 1 (1/7/09, 2:02 pm): Hound Dog has found the official priority list for the upcoming season, and as I predicted, Lorie Kane exercised her only Category 2 exemption, so 2009 2010 will be her last stand (as well as Kelly Robbins, Beth Daniel, Betsy King, and Liselotte Neumann). Good luck to them!]

Saturday, January 3, 2009

The LPGA's Top Rivalries: Clashes of the Titans

Let's continue this Mostly Harmless series by turning to another facet of the LPGA's top rivalries: how the active Hall of Famers' careers match up. Here's the capsule summary:

Karrie Webb (1996): 35 career LPGA wins (including 1 non-member win), 7 majors, 9 international wins, $14.31M in career LPGA winnings (#2), $.85M in 2008 in 20 LPGA events (#18)
Lorena Ochoa (2003): 24 career LPGA wins, 2 majors, $13.20M in career LPGA winnings (#3), $2.76M in 2008 in 22 LPGA events (#1)
Juli Inkster (1983): 31 career LPGA wins, 7 majors, 1 international win, $12.45M in career LPGA winnings (#4), $.44M in 2008 in 18 LPGA events (#38)
Se Ri Pak (1998): 24 career LPGA wins, 5 majors, 6 international wins, $10.15M in career LPGA winnings (#5), $.37M in 2008 in 17 LPGA events (#52)

With Annika Sorenstam not playing on the LPGA for at least the next season or two, this foursome stands alone. Not only are they the only players in LPGA history besides Sorenstam to have broken the $10M barrier in career winnings, they also notched the most victories during the Sorenstam Era. The only active player in their league is Laura Davies--she has only 1 fewer win in the Sorenstam Era than Inkster, 4 fewer career wins than Ochoa and Pak, and 2 more majors than Ochoa. Cristie Kerr is on track to join them in the 10 Million Dollar Club sometime in 2009, but she would need to double her career win total to even get close to them. And nobody else on the LPGA has gotten to double digits in the win column. (Paula Creamer should be the next one.)

Even though Ochoa zoomed past Pak on the money list in 2007, beating her to the $10M mark, and passed Inkster in 2008 with relative ease, I'm not so sure she'll have such an easy time beating Webb to the $15M mark or passing her in career winnings in 2009. True, since 2002 Webb hasn't been the same player who never finished outside the top 5 on the money list or had fewer than 2 wins and 12 top 10s per season. Even though she hasn't won or cracked the top 15 on the money list the past 2 seasons and can no longer be counted upon for consistent excellence, there's no reason she couldn't have another 2006 in '09. I'm sure she'd love to close out her LPGA career in Babe Zaharias-land, with 40+ wins and 10+ majors. It's not quite now or never for her, but she'll need a special season to make it possible.

While post-Solheim Cup retirement is looming for Inkster and time is running out for her to catch Patty Sheehan (35 wins, 6 majors) and Betsy King (34/6) in total victories, she still has the game to match Betsy Rawls's 8 majors. But it seems likely that Ochoa will pass her in career victories in 2010 if not in the upcoming season.

Pak, meanwhile, is coming off only the 2nd season in her career that she finished outside the top 16 on the money list. Her 2008 wasn't nearly as bad as her meltdown of 2005, but it marks the 5th in a row that she couldn't crack the top 10 on the money list or get double digits of top 10s, raising doubts that she'll ever again be the dominant player she was between 1998 and 2003. But Ochoa still trails her by 3 majors, so it's unlikely she'll be able to pass her in 2009. If maintaining or padding her lead on Ochoa in majors isn't enough motivation for Pak in 2009, she should take note that Cristie Kerr and Mi Hyun Kim are closing in on her on the career money list.

Ochoa, by contrast, is at the peak of her career. The only question is how many more seasons she can extend her reign as the Queen of the Hill in the world of women's golf. With a host of talented Young Guns and the Class of 2009--most notably Ya Ni Tseng, Ji-Yai Shin, Amy Yang, and Michelle Wie--looking to join Creamer, Suzann Pettersen, and Kerr in the lead chase pack, 2009 is likely to be her biggest challenge yet. Until 2010.

[Update 1 (1/22/09, 12:50 pm): Thomas Atkins, a regular commenter at Hound Dog's place, has put together an inflation-adjusted LPGA career winnings top 50. Ochoa still has a ways to go to get to #3 on that.]

Friday, January 2, 2009

The LPGA's Top Rivalries: Generation Gaps

All right, let's get the new year started right, golf-wise, by taking another look at the LPGA's top rivalries. We'll start this series of posts with an overview of the top money winners among the 5 LPGA generations that began their careers during the Sorenstam Era (1994-2008), plus the 1st new one that's looking to cut the Ochoa Era (2003-) short. In addition to career winnings and rank on the career money list, I also list these players' totals in wins and majors. I know--56 players are a lot to keep track of--but there are probably about 80 in all who could win any given week on the LPGA. Putting together my top 30 predictions is going to be even tougher this season than last!

1994-1996: The Sorenstam Generation

[1. Annika Sorenstam (1994) $22.57M (#1), 72/10]
2. Karrie Webb (1996) $14.31M (#2), 35/7
3. Lorie Kane (1996) $6.70M (#14), 4/0
4. Pat Hurst (1995) $6.16M (#15), 5/1
5. Catriona Matthew (1995) $5.49M (#25), 2/0
6. Carin Koch (1995) $4.36M (#33), 2/0
7. Wendy Ward (1996) $4.16M (#35), 4/0

1997-1999: The Pak Generation

1. Se Ri Pak (1998) $10.15M (#5), 24/5
2. Cristie Kerr (1997) $8.94M (#7), 11/1
3. Mi Hyun Kim (1999) $8.29M (#11), 8/0
4. Rachel Hetherington (1997) $5.59M (#23), 8/0
5. Laura Diaz (1999) $4.91M (#30), 2/0
6. Sophie Gustafson (1998) $4.55M (#31), 4/0
7. Maria Hjorth (1998) $4.33M (#34), 3/0
8. Karen Stupples (1999) $3.06M (#55), 2/1

2000-2002: Seoul Sisters

1. Jeong Jang (2000) $6.11M (#16), 2/1
2. Hee-Won Han (2001) $5.64M (#22), 6/0
3. Grace Park (2000) $5.28M (#27), 6/1
4. Candie Kung (2002) $3.95M (#37), 4/0
5. Angela Stanford (2001) $3.82M (#39), 3/0
6. Natalie Gulbis (2002) $3.64M (#42), 1/0
7. Gloria Park (2000) $3.24M (#51), 2/0

2003-2005: The Ochoa Generation

1. Lorena Ochoa (2003) $13.20M (#3), 24/2
2. Paula Creamer (2005) $5.82M (#19), 8/0
3. Suzann Pettersen (2003) $3.94M (#38), 5/1
4. Christina Kim (2003) $3.13M (#54), 2/0
5. Stacy Prammanasudh (2003) $2.74M (#64), 2/0
6. Meena Lee (2005) $2.35M (#73), 2/0
7. Shi Hyun Ahn (2004) $2.25M (#78), 1*/0 [non-member win]
8. Young Kim (2003) $2.18M (#81), 1/0
9. Brittany Lincicome (2005) $1.97M (#88), 2/0
10. Katherine Hull (2004) $1.61M (#106), 1/0

2006-2008: The Young Guns
[I include this generation's numbers of events, majors, wins, top 3s, top 10s, top 20s, and made cuts (along with made cut rate); *=non-member win.]

1. Seon Hwa Lee (2006) $3.18M (#52), 88/0/4/10/23/46/83 (.943)
2. Jee Young Lee (2006) $2.34M (#75), 78/0/1*/6/24/45/73 (.936)
3. Morgan Pressel (2006) $2.15M (#83), 75/1/2/6/22/38/65 (.867)
4. Julieta Granada (2006) $2.15M (#84), 83/0/1/5/10/21/56 (.675)
5. Angela Park (2007) $1.85M (#96), 55/0/0/6/15/22/50 (.910)
6. Ya Ni Tseng (2008) $1.75M (#100), 27/1/1/8/10/18/26 (.963)
7. Ai Miyazato (2006) $1.73M (#102), 69/0/0/4/17/26/56 (.812)
8. Inbee Park (2007) $1.52M (#111), 47/1/1/3/9/15/33 (.702)
9. Brittany Lang (2006) $1.52M (#112), 83/0/0/4/17/32/60 (.723)
10. In-Kyung Kim (2007) $1.23M (#136), 51/0/1/3/12/20/43 (.843)
11. Eun-Hee Ji (2007) $1.16M (#148), 32/0/1/4/10/13/27 (.844)
12. Na Yeon Choi (2008) $1.10M (#158), 27/0/0/3/9/18/27 (1.000)
13. Song-Hee Kim (2007) $1.06M (#160), 51/0/0/4/9/17/37 (.725)
14. Sun Young Yoo (2006) $1.05M (#165), 81/0/0/1/9/21/61 (.753)

2009-2011: New Blood

1. Ji-Yai Shin
2. Shiho Oyama
3. Stacy Lewis
4. Michelle Wie
5. Vicky Hurst
6. Mika Miyazato
7. Anna Nordqvist
8. Mindy Kim
9. M.J. Hur
10. Chella Choi

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Happy New Year from Mostly Harmless

Going old school this year. Here's a little Heckyl and Jeckyl:



And Ojamajo Doremi welcoming in 2000:



Oh, and in case you haven't heard, there's going to be a new season of Full Metal Alchemist on Japanese TV:



So 2009 can't be all bad, right?