I would be remiss in my ongoing attempt to unite animation, sf, music, and golf otaku of all genders, ages, and nationalities were I not to pass along these gems from the 1970s:
Which is better at blowing your mind? Note how both the giant robot and Kamen Rider traditions are invoked in the latter. But the former's lyrics must not be underestimated.
Can you top these?
[Update 1 (9:57 am): I vote for the latter, on the grounds that its opening probably influenced The Tick's theme song:
But I'm willing to be persuaded.]
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Ai Miyazato's Prospects in 2009
Ben Gibson takes a look at Ai Miyazato's LPGA career for bleacher report and gets a lot wrong. It's not just basic facts like her number of wins on the JLPGA in 2005 (6, not 5), her total number of JLPGA victories (14, not 15), or which peers from the JLPGA moved or are moving to the LPGA (Momoko Ueda already joined her in 2008, and it's Shiho Oyama, not Yuri Fudoh, who's coming in 2009) that Gibson butchers, but the reasons for her struggles since leaving the JLPGA.
Where Gibson rightly praises Miyazato's putting and attributes much of her difficulties to her low greens in regulation rate the past 2 seasons, he fails to note that injuries played a major role in her ballstriking problems in the 2nd half of 2007 and the 1st half of 2008. It's not so much her ball flight that's to blame (Gibson's hypothesis) as the swing flaws and loss of confidence that contributed to her downward spiral following the leg injury she sustained while getting to the finals in the HSBC Women's World Match Play Championship (where she eventually lost to fellow '06 rookie Seon Hwa Lee). I'm still searching the JLPGA site to see if I can find stats on her driving and approach shots from 2004 to 2006 (her bio page isn't as informative as the LPGA's 2006, 2007, 2008 performance charts), but I already have good evidence to support my argument. In 2006, when she was adjusting to life on the LPGA (and winning twice in 7 events on the JLPGA) she averaged 253 yards off the tee, hit over 75% of her fairways and 69% of her greens in regulation, and averaged 3.71 birdies per round and 1.78 putts per green in regulation. Those numbers dropped to roughly 240, 62%, 57%, 2.87, and 1.82 in 2007 and only improved slightly to around 243, 67%, 62%, 2.78, and 1.83 in 2008. When you're driving the ball shorter and wilder, of course you're going to hit fewer greens and find yourself further away from the hole when you do. (Keep in mind, too, that at her lowest point in her sophomore season, she stopped using her driver altogether.) To understand the size of the cliff Miyazato fell off, particularly on her tee shots, consider that she ranked outside Hound Dog's top 100 in total driving in 2008, but if you plug her 2006 numbers into his formula, she would have placed among the top 5 this past season.
Given this context that Gibson misses, it's no surprise that Miyazato has fallen so far in the world rankings since 2006. But she's already fought her way back from the brink, having broken back into the top 50 of the Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index after nearly falling out of its top 100 at her worst. Along with her difficulties on the LPGA, her inability to add to her JLPGA victory total in 2007 and 2008 helps account for the fact thatFudoh and Ueda have remained well ahead of her on the Rolex Rankings, that she's been passed by Sakura Yokomine and Miho Koga, and that Mi-Jeong Jeon, Oyama, Ji-Hee Lee, Akiko Fukushima, Yuko Mitsuka, Hyun-Ju Shin, and Eun-A Lim from the JLPGA are all in her league. But when you consider that she made my top 10 on the JLPGA last season despite playing a limited schedule--after falling off the map the season before--I expect to see her climbing both the Sagarin and Rolex charts in 2009.
In fact, as Miyazato enters 2009 both injury-free and with plenty of time to have shaken off its after-effects, the real question is how close she can come to her peak performances from 2004 to 2006? I don't see any reason for her not to surpass her rookie season in the next few years. If she can get the driver working for her again like it was before her injury, look for that to happen sooner than later.
[Update 1 (1/18/09, 10:33 am): Check out the exchange between Gibson and me over at b/r. I certainly could have done more to highlight our areas of agreement, and for not doing that, I apologize. We both think Ai-chan is overdue for an LPGA win and that it could come sooner than many people think.]
[Update 2 (1/20/09, 10:36 pm): The JLPGA's stats don't have everything I'm looking for, at least as far as I can see, but I'm finding more indirect support for my belief that it's a combination of driving and approach shots that are most to blame for Miyazato's recent struggles. In 2005, she averaged 3.70 birdies per round (tied for the best on the JLPGA), which is very close to her 2006 LPGA average, and had the lowest scoring average of her career, 70.59 (over a half-stroke better than her 2006 LPGA average of 71.22, and even better than her 2004 JLPGA average, 70.85). In both 2004 and 2005, she averaged under 1.77 putts per green in regulation, #1 or #2 on the JLPGA, and in only 7 events in 2006, had an incandescent 1.728 PPGIR rate but "only" a 70.63 scoring average. To give herself so many good birdie chances, she had to be an excellent ballstriker. Now if only I can find direct evidence of that! More later....]
[Update 3 (1/22/09, 1:50 am): Hound Dog has more on Miyazato and total driving.]
[Update 4 (7/27/09, 4:15 am): Well, it took a bit longer than I hoped for, but Ai-chan's win at the Evian Masters was well worth the wait. The thing I find most heartening from it is that she didn't have to play out-of-this-world fantastic to win. She just put together 4 good rounds--not great ones, but good enough to pull it out. She doesn't seem to be riding a hot streak to me; she just seems to be playing very well. I don't see any reason why this can't continue for a long while.]
Where Gibson rightly praises Miyazato's putting and attributes much of her difficulties to her low greens in regulation rate the past 2 seasons, he fails to note that injuries played a major role in her ballstriking problems in the 2nd half of 2007 and the 1st half of 2008. It's not so much her ball flight that's to blame (Gibson's hypothesis) as the swing flaws and loss of confidence that contributed to her downward spiral following the leg injury she sustained while getting to the finals in the HSBC Women's World Match Play Championship (where she eventually lost to fellow '06 rookie Seon Hwa Lee). I'm still searching the JLPGA site to see if I can find stats on her driving and approach shots from 2004 to 2006 (her bio page isn't as informative as the LPGA's 2006, 2007, 2008 performance charts), but I already have good evidence to support my argument. In 2006, when she was adjusting to life on the LPGA (and winning twice in 7 events on the JLPGA) she averaged 253 yards off the tee, hit over 75% of her fairways and 69% of her greens in regulation, and averaged 3.71 birdies per round and 1.78 putts per green in regulation. Those numbers dropped to roughly 240, 62%, 57%, 2.87, and 1.82 in 2007 and only improved slightly to around 243, 67%, 62%, 2.78, and 1.83 in 2008. When you're driving the ball shorter and wilder, of course you're going to hit fewer greens and find yourself further away from the hole when you do. (Keep in mind, too, that at her lowest point in her sophomore season, she stopped using her driver altogether.) To understand the size of the cliff Miyazato fell off, particularly on her tee shots, consider that she ranked outside Hound Dog's top 100 in total driving in 2008, but if you plug her 2006 numbers into his formula, she would have placed among the top 5 this past season.
Given this context that Gibson misses, it's no surprise that Miyazato has fallen so far in the world rankings since 2006. But she's already fought her way back from the brink, having broken back into the top 50 of the Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index after nearly falling out of its top 100 at her worst. Along with her difficulties on the LPGA, her inability to add to her JLPGA victory total in 2007 and 2008 helps account for the fact thatFudoh and Ueda have remained well ahead of her on the Rolex Rankings, that she's been passed by Sakura Yokomine and Miho Koga, and that Mi-Jeong Jeon, Oyama, Ji-Hee Lee, Akiko Fukushima, Yuko Mitsuka, Hyun-Ju Shin, and Eun-A Lim from the JLPGA are all in her league. But when you consider that she made my top 10 on the JLPGA last season despite playing a limited schedule--after falling off the map the season before--I expect to see her climbing both the Sagarin and Rolex charts in 2009.
In fact, as Miyazato enters 2009 both injury-free and with plenty of time to have shaken off its after-effects, the real question is how close she can come to her peak performances from 2004 to 2006? I don't see any reason for her not to surpass her rookie season in the next few years. If she can get the driver working for her again like it was before her injury, look for that to happen sooner than later.
[Update 1 (1/18/09, 10:33 am): Check out the exchange between Gibson and me over at b/r. I certainly could have done more to highlight our areas of agreement, and for not doing that, I apologize. We both think Ai-chan is overdue for an LPGA win and that it could come sooner than many people think.]
[Update 2 (1/20/09, 10:36 pm): The JLPGA's stats don't have everything I'm looking for, at least as far as I can see, but I'm finding more indirect support for my belief that it's a combination of driving and approach shots that are most to blame for Miyazato's recent struggles. In 2005, she averaged 3.70 birdies per round (tied for the best on the JLPGA), which is very close to her 2006 LPGA average, and had the lowest scoring average of her career, 70.59 (over a half-stroke better than her 2006 LPGA average of 71.22, and even better than her 2004 JLPGA average, 70.85). In both 2004 and 2005, she averaged under 1.77 putts per green in regulation, #1 or #2 on the JLPGA, and in only 7 events in 2006, had an incandescent 1.728 PPGIR rate but "only" a 70.63 scoring average. To give herself so many good birdie chances, she had to be an excellent ballstriker. Now if only I can find direct evidence of that! More later....]
[Update 3 (1/22/09, 1:50 am): Hound Dog has more on Miyazato and total driving.]
[Update 4 (7/27/09, 4:15 am): Well, it took a bit longer than I hoped for, but Ai-chan's win at the Evian Masters was well worth the wait. The thing I find most heartening from it is that she didn't have to play out-of-this-world fantastic to win. She just put together 4 good rounds--not great ones, but good enough to pull it out. She doesn't seem to be riding a hot streak to me; she just seems to be playing very well. I don't see any reason why this can't continue for a long while.]
Friday, January 16, 2009
Rethinking the LPGA's Rookie of the Year Race
Warming up the Mostly Harmless 100-yen Nishijin crystal ball for my top 30 predictions with another look at the Class of 2009, and taking into account the fact that Wie will be spending a good part of the spring in class, Nordqvist will be spending most of the season on the LET (taking the Amy Yang route to world domination), and that Oyama will likely be spending a good part of the season on the JLPGA), here are my revised predictions in the Rookie of the Year Race.
Simply the Best
Ji-Yai Shin
Stacy Lewis
Shiho Oyama
Michelle Wie
Vicky Hurst
The Contenders
[high priority status]
Mika Miyazato
Mindy Kim
M.J. Hur
Quantum Leap Candidates
[high priority status]
Chella Choi
On the Bottom Looking Up
[high priority status but...]
Jeehae Lee
On the Outside Looking In
[low priority status]
Song Yi Choi
Haeji Kang
Anna Nordqvist
Tania Elosegui
Pornanong Phatlum
Jessica Shepley
Nontaya Srisawang
Sunny Oh
Angela Oh
Samantha Richdale
Kim Welch
Two questions: does anyone have a chance to outdo Shin in '09? and how would you rank the rookies?
[Update 1 (1/20/09, 8:52 pm): Here are Hound Dog's thoughts on the Class of 2009.]
Simply the Best
Ji-Yai Shin
Stacy Lewis
Shiho Oyama
Michelle Wie
Vicky Hurst
The Contenders
[high priority status]
Mika Miyazato
Mindy Kim
M.J. Hur
Quantum Leap Candidates
[high priority status]
Chella Choi
On the Bottom Looking Up
[high priority status but...]
Jeehae Lee
On the Outside Looking In
[low priority status]
Song Yi Choi
Haeji Kang
Anna Nordqvist
Tania Elosegui
Pornanong Phatlum
Jessica Shepley
Nontaya Srisawang
Sunny Oh
Angela Oh
Samantha Richdale
Kim Welch
Two questions: does anyone have a chance to outdo Shin in '09? and how would you rank the rookies?
[Update 1 (1/20/09, 8:52 pm): Here are Hound Dog's thoughts on the Class of 2009.]
Nordqvist Wins LET Q-School
2008 Women's British Amateur champion Anna Nordqvist bounced back from her disappointment at the LPGA's Q-School last December in a big way: she fired her 3rd straight sub-70 round to win the LET's Q-School. How did the players on the Mostly Harmless watch list finish? 6 of the 7 got virtually full playing privileges for 2009:
1st/-13 Nordqvist 75-69-67-68
4th/-6 Christel Boeljon 72-75-69-70
6th/-4 Beth Allen 70-71-72-75
10th/-2 Julieta Granada 72-72-72-74
19th/+2 Smriti Mehra 74-70-73-77
25th/+3 Jessica Ji 69-78-72-76
40th/+8 Stephanie Na 75-78-72-75
It'll be very interesting to see what kind of schedules dual LPGA/LET members Nordqvist and Granada decide on this season. If Nordqvist is as successful on the LET in '09 as Amy Yang was in '08, don't look for her to play many events on the LPGA outside of Europe. She's already stated she wants to qualify for the European team in the 2009 Solheim Cup (more good news for the Americans in the LPGA's Class of 2009!), so LET Rookie of the year has to be in her sights, as well. On the other hand, I expect Granada to focus on the LPGA at the start of the season after testing LET waters in Australia. It all depends on how she plays, then. If her futility on the LPGA continues, look for her to jump ship reasonably early. Similarly, if she can get comfortably in the LPGA's top 80 early in the season, look for her to play more on the LET, so she can maintain dual membership in '10. The only scenario I can imagine where she plays fewer than 10 events on the LET is if she's having a great LPGA season.
1st/-13 Nordqvist 75-69-67-68
4th/-6 Christel Boeljon 72-75-69-70
6th/-4 Beth Allen 70-71-72-75
10th/-2 Julieta Granada 72-72-72-74
19th/+2 Smriti Mehra 74-70-73-77
25th/+3 Jessica Ji 69-78-72-76
40th/+8 Stephanie Na 75-78-72-75
It'll be very interesting to see what kind of schedules dual LPGA/LET members Nordqvist and Granada decide on this season. If Nordqvist is as successful on the LET in '09 as Amy Yang was in '08, don't look for her to play many events on the LPGA outside of Europe. She's already stated she wants to qualify for the European team in the 2009 Solheim Cup (more good news for the Americans in the LPGA's Class of 2009!), so LET Rookie of the year has to be in her sights, as well. On the other hand, I expect Granada to focus on the LPGA at the start of the season after testing LET waters in Australia. It all depends on how she plays, then. If her futility on the LPGA continues, look for her to jump ship reasonably early. Similarly, if she can get comfortably in the LPGA's top 80 early in the season, look for her to play more on the LET, so she can maintain dual membership in '10. The only scenario I can imagine where she plays fewer than 10 events on the LET is if she's having a great LPGA season.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Best Blogs on Women's Golf: Hound Dog LPGA
On Monday I surveyed my goals in my golf writing at Mostly Harmless and promised I'd address "what I value from the best golf bloggers I've come across." The obvious place to begin fulfilling that promise is Hound Dog LPGA, Ken Hartis's golf blog.
Ken may be nothin' but a Hound Dog, but I'll take his incessant barking over anything the AP dishes out. Not only does he manage to survey who played well on any given Thursday, Friday, or Saturday every week the LPGA is playing in an elegant, inclusive, and unbiased fashion, his Sunday recaps, with their focus on what the players in contention actually did, are works of art. For someone like me, who's only paying for a high-speed internet connection and not for cable, his Sunday stories are just what I need to flesh out the drama I'm often tracking on LPGA.com's live leaderboard or catch me up if I've been doing family stuff rather than not-quite-live-blogging the LPGA. I really like the balance he has struck between identifying who's played the best in a given week, in a given stretch, over the course of a season, and over several seasons. Unlike too many golf writers who are paid to cover the LPGA, he doesn't focus exclusively on how the most dominant players in the field did (Sorenstam, Ochoa) or go on and on about media favorites who haven't been playing well (Wie for most of the past 2 seasons, but also Lincicome [who wilted in the spotlight soon after getting her 2nd career win], Gulbis, Rawson, and, to a lesser extent, Pressel and Castrale [who haven't actually played all that badly, just not as well as, say, Angela Stanford, Katherine Hull, Brittany Lang, or Jee Young Lee, to pick some names from the end of the '08 season]) or ignore anyone with an Asian-sounding last name (as Golf Channel highlights are wont to do). What he does focus on, as his end-of-season profiles each year make clear, is the players who have performed the best over the course of a season. But he also pays attention to those struggling with their games and trying to kick-start (or restart) their careers. He started looking at the race to keep your card back in September and October 2006 and has done it every season since.
Still, Hound Dog's game stories, player profiles, and features are only a small part of why his blog is the 1st--and best--source for all things LPGA. As I said before, he's the top dog when it comes to golf stats. It's not just that he has a nose for combining the most relevant existing stats to develop a better ranking system than Rolex or Sagarin, testing it out on the KLPGA, JLPGA (twice), Futures Tour, pushing it back over time to help him develop a list of the top 50 LPGA greats ever, and using it to help him make his preseason top 30 picks the last 2 seasons. And it's not just his deftness at explaining his statistical reasoning in standalone posts and responses to commenters. It's the fact that he has developed great new stats, like total driving, total putting, and strength of field, that allow him and us to put the accomplishments of the LPGA's best in context and to better appreciate them. Plus, he throws a statistical curveball here or there, such as in his round of the day, most average player, fluke victory lists.
Is it any surprise, then, that he was the 1st in the world of golf writing to project how soon Lorena Ochoa would qualify for the LPGA Hall of Fame?
I've learned a lot from Hound Dog's non-statistical research, as well. His focus on the fluctuations of the LPGA schedule from season to season is the most informative and balanced treatment I've seen on the web--and that's including pros like Jon Show who actually do a great job. His analysis of the LPGA's new eligibility and priority standards and the controversies they have generated at Q-School can't be beat. Speaking of controversies, he's one of the most level-headed and fair-minded bloggers in the middle of one that you're likely to come across.
It's no surprise, then, that in 2008 Hound Dog moved from blogger to join Rayn Ballengee of Waggle Room at SBNation, which has features that allow his readers to add supplemental posts and links to his main page, or that he's started co-hosting Inside the LPGA, one of the podcasts at Prime Sports Network. It's no wonder that other golf bloggers like Bill Jempty at The Florida Masochist and Jamie R. Saengsawang at Crosscourt Birdies are regulars at Hound Dog LPGA or that he has the best-informed commentariat of all the LPGA bloggers. One thing you can count on is that Ken's blog will remain LPGA Central in 2009.
[Update 1 (11:40 am): Looks like it's Hound Dog Day on teh internets.]
[Update 2 (1/16/09, 2:12 am): The good Dr. Frankenstat has struck again.]
Ken may be nothin' but a Hound Dog, but I'll take his incessant barking over anything the AP dishes out. Not only does he manage to survey who played well on any given Thursday, Friday, or Saturday every week the LPGA is playing in an elegant, inclusive, and unbiased fashion, his Sunday recaps, with their focus on what the players in contention actually did, are works of art. For someone like me, who's only paying for a high-speed internet connection and not for cable, his Sunday stories are just what I need to flesh out the drama I'm often tracking on LPGA.com's live leaderboard or catch me up if I've been doing family stuff rather than not-quite-live-blogging the LPGA. I really like the balance he has struck between identifying who's played the best in a given week, in a given stretch, over the course of a season, and over several seasons. Unlike too many golf writers who are paid to cover the LPGA, he doesn't focus exclusively on how the most dominant players in the field did (Sorenstam, Ochoa) or go on and on about media favorites who haven't been playing well (Wie for most of the past 2 seasons, but also Lincicome [who wilted in the spotlight soon after getting her 2nd career win], Gulbis, Rawson, and, to a lesser extent, Pressel and Castrale [who haven't actually played all that badly, just not as well as, say, Angela Stanford, Katherine Hull, Brittany Lang, or Jee Young Lee, to pick some names from the end of the '08 season]) or ignore anyone with an Asian-sounding last name (as Golf Channel highlights are wont to do). What he does focus on, as his end-of-season profiles each year make clear, is the players who have performed the best over the course of a season. But he also pays attention to those struggling with their games and trying to kick-start (or restart) their careers. He started looking at the race to keep your card back in September and October 2006 and has done it every season since.
Still, Hound Dog's game stories, player profiles, and features are only a small part of why his blog is the 1st--and best--source for all things LPGA. As I said before, he's the top dog when it comes to golf stats. It's not just that he has a nose for combining the most relevant existing stats to develop a better ranking system than Rolex or Sagarin, testing it out on the KLPGA, JLPGA (twice), Futures Tour, pushing it back over time to help him develop a list of the top 50 LPGA greats ever, and using it to help him make his preseason top 30 picks the last 2 seasons. And it's not just his deftness at explaining his statistical reasoning in standalone posts and responses to commenters. It's the fact that he has developed great new stats, like total driving, total putting, and strength of field, that allow him and us to put the accomplishments of the LPGA's best in context and to better appreciate them. Plus, he throws a statistical curveball here or there, such as in his round of the day, most average player, fluke victory lists.
Is it any surprise, then, that he was the 1st in the world of golf writing to project how soon Lorena Ochoa would qualify for the LPGA Hall of Fame?
I've learned a lot from Hound Dog's non-statistical research, as well. His focus on the fluctuations of the LPGA schedule from season to season is the most informative and balanced treatment I've seen on the web--and that's including pros like Jon Show who actually do a great job. His analysis of the LPGA's new eligibility and priority standards and the controversies they have generated at Q-School can't be beat. Speaking of controversies, he's one of the most level-headed and fair-minded bloggers in the middle of one that you're likely to come across.
It's no surprise, then, that in 2008 Hound Dog moved from blogger to join Rayn Ballengee of Waggle Room at SBNation, which has features that allow his readers to add supplemental posts and links to his main page, or that he's started co-hosting Inside the LPGA, one of the podcasts at Prime Sports Network. It's no wonder that other golf bloggers like Bill Jempty at The Florida Masochist and Jamie R. Saengsawang at Crosscourt Birdies are regulars at Hound Dog LPGA or that he has the best-informed commentariat of all the LPGA bloggers. One thing you can count on is that Ken's blog will remain LPGA Central in 2009.
[Update 1 (11:40 am): Looks like it's Hound Dog Day on teh internets.]
[Update 2 (1/16/09, 2:12 am): The good Dr. Frankenstat has struck again.]
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)