Saturday, December 5, 2009

LPGA Q-School Friday: Yes, Virginia, Mother Nature Hates the LPGA

Those predicted rains I talked about in my overview of the 2nd round of LPGA Q-School? Yeah, they came down harder than I expected and play was suspended yesterday, not to begin again until 11 am today. And with the Weather Channel predicting another half-inch to fall between midnight and the late morning, when the storms are expected to move out of the area, I'm guessing it'll actually be the afternoon when the LPGA International courses drain enough for play to resume. When it does, it'll be cold and windy, so don't expect the players to take advantage of the soft conditions. What's unclear, because the LPGA isn't providing true live-scoring this week, is how many holes the early groups were able to get in before the decision was made to suspend play. All we know is that Erica Blasberg and Aree Song withdrew from the tournament, so my guess is that the LPGA kept them playing long enough for other players to blow up, as well. Could be ugly when the 3rd round is finally completed. We'll have to wait and see.

[Update 1 (4:28 am): May as well link to Beth Ann Baldry. Good thing the leaders only got 4 holes in yesterday, but what about the rest of the field?

In answer to her question--"where are the Koreans?"--I think it's safe to say that many new pros are getting their feet wet on the KLPGA or decided to play on the other side of the world this week in JLPGA Q-School. Former LPGA member Na Ri Kim was in Japan instead of in Florida and she'll be a JLPGA member in 2010. But except for Sun Ju Ahn and Jae Bae, it's not like there were all that many non-LPGA Koreans who met with a lot of success over there, either. I don't think it's just a matter of economics, either. I think it's safe to say that Hee Kyung Seo, So Yeon Ryu, and maybe Ha Neul Kim and He Yong Choi are the only KLPGA players really ready for prime time right now. But if they have decided the time is not yet ripe to try out the JLPGA or LPGA, then the bar on both tours is already very high.

Those who project the last decade's amazing growth of Korean players into the next decade haven't been paying all that much attention to what's actually happening in Asia.]

[Update 2 (4:37 am): Man, I am way too tired to be blogging. The LPGA.com leaderboard doesn't give you hole-by-hole results, but it does tell us how many holes each golfer has played and their cumulative score on the day.

Malinda Johnson is -4 through 8 and Beatriz Recari is -4 through 7. Sarah Wikstrom, Leah Wigger, Kris Tschetter, and Marianne Skarpnord are -2 through 5, while Nicole Hage is -2 through 9. So it's not all bad out there.

On the other hand, Dorothy Delasin's agonies continue. Yuko Mitsuka, Christine Song, and Jeehae Lee are all +3 as they approach the turn. There are an amazing number of big-name players (for Q-School) already +2 on their day. And 2 players I'm really rooting for, Tiffany Joh and Mariajo Uribe, are +1 with about a third of their rounds completed. Here's hoping they're all able to turn it around today.]

Friday, December 4, 2009

Kyoraku Cup Friday: Itai! Itai! Itai!

The 1st day of the Kyoraku Cup is complete and here are the results, along with my predictions:

So Yeon Ryu (72) v. Yuri Fudoh (74) [adv. Korea] Korea 2-Japan 0
Jeoung-Eun Lee (73) v. Akiko Fukushima (74) [adv. Japan] Korea 4-Japan 0
Bo-Bae Song (66) v. Miho Koga (72) [toss-up] Korea 6-Japan 0
Mi-Jeong Jeon (72) v. Erina Hara (74) [adv. Korea] Korea 8-Japan 0
Ji-Hee Lee (68) v. Momoko Ueda (71) [toss-up] Korea 10-Japan 0
Eun-A Lim (74) v. Miki Saiki (71) [toss-up] Korea 10-Japan 2
Eun-Hee Ji (70) v. Ai Miyazato (72) [adv. Japan] Korea 12-Japan 2
Hee Kyung Seo (68) v. Sakura Yokomine (70) [toss-up] Korea 14-Japan 2
Na Yeon Choi (69) v. Yukari Baba (73) [adv. Korea] Korea 16-Japan 2
Ji-Yai Shin (71) v. Ayako Uehara (72) [adv. Korea] Korea 18-Japan 2
In-Kyung Kim (70) v. Chie Arimura (72) [toss-up] Korea 20-Japan 2
Bo Mi Lee (71) v. Shinobu Moromizato (67) [adv. Japan] Korea 20-Japan 4

As you can see, I predicted a slight edge for Team Korea, not a rout. But that's what we got.

Team Japan will need a huge comeback tomorrow. Here's how I think it'll go:

Jeoung-Eun Lee v. Yuri Fudoh [adv. Japan] Korea 20-Japan 6
In-Kyung Kim v. Akiko Fukushima [adv. Korea] Korea 22-Japan 6
Bo Mi Lee v. Yuko Saitoh [adv. Japan] Korea 22-Japan 8
So Yeon Ryu v. Yukari Baba [adv. Korea] Korea 24-Japan 8
Bo-Bae Song v. Miho Koga [revenge Japan] Korea 24-Japan 10
Sun Young Yoo v. Momoko Ueda [adv. Japan] Korea 24-Japan 12
Eun-A Lim v. Ai Miyazato [adv. Japan] Korea 24-Japan 14
Mi-Jeong Jeon v. Sakura Yokomine [adv. Japan] Korea 24-Japan 16
Hee Kyung Seo v. Chie Arimura (72) [adv. Korea] Korea 26-Japan 16
Eun-Hee Ji v. Miki Saiki [adv. Korea] Korea 28-Japan 16
Na Yeon Choi v. Ayako Uehara [adv. Korea] Korea 30-Japan 16
Ji-Yai Shin v. Shinobu Moromizato [adv. Korea] Korea 32-Japan 16

In short, I don't see how Team Japan can win this thing.

[Update 1 (6:00 am): Fun to follow the reactions at Seoul Sisters.com!]

[Update 2 (6:13 am): I don't see why someone like Hee Kyung Seo, who has expressed interest in playing on the JLPGA in 2011, should be forced to choose between the Kyoraku Cup and JLPGA Q-School, as all the top Korean golfers were last year. Here's hoping the JLPGA's Final Qualifying Tournament is scheduled to end at least a few days before the Kyoraku Cup in 2010. It's not like Team Korea is missing Sun Ju Ahn, who finished in 2nd, 2 shots behind medalist Young Kim, at Q-School today. But wouldn't it have been cool for her to be competing this week?]

JLPGA Q-School Final Qualifying Tournament Friday: It All Comes Down to This

Let's get right down to brass tacks and summarize briefly how the players I've been following throughout the 72-hole Final Qualifying Tournament to determine membership status on the JLPGA for 2010 ended up. I'll list them in the order I predicted they'd finish in:

1. Seon Hwa Lee: 70-70-73-71 (-4, 3rd)
2. Sun Ju Ahn: 71-73-70-70 (-4, 2nd)
3. Inbee Park: 73-65-74-72 (-4, 4th)
4. Candie Kung: 70-72-73-79 (+6, 24th)
5. Teresa Lu: 73-75-72-69 (+1, 7th)
6. Young Kim: 74-68-69-71 (-6, 1st)
7. Onnarin Sattayabanphot: 72-79-75-80 (+18, 85th)
8. Na Ri Kim: 72-69-76-69 (-2, 6th)
9. Kumiko Kaneda: 77-77-75-78 (+19, 88th)
10. Ritsuko Ryu: 75-79-73-72 (+11, 39th)
11. Jae Bae: 71-70-76-72 (+1, 9th)
12. Yuki Sakurai: 72-74-78-84 (+20, 89th)
13. Sakurako Mori: 76-77-80-72 (+17, 77th)
14. Bong Su Tseng: 73-74-71-81 (+11, 44th)
15. Kaori Higo: 73-73-67-77 (+2, 11th)
16. Michiko Hattori: 75-73-78-75 (+13, 53rd)
17. Eun Hye Lee: 73-75-72-74 (+6, 23rd)

As you can see, there were a bunch of shocking final-round collapses from those who had been playing decently and far too many bad rounds from players I expected to play solidly this week. But there were some nice charges, as well. Teresa Lu shot a bogey-free 31 on the back to notch a top 10

Others who I could have included in my top 20 but didn't (in part because 3 of my picks didn't compete this week) ended up outplaying many of my picks:

Ikue Asama: 77-69-69-70 (-3, 5th)
Esther Lee: 69-72-76-75 (+4, 16th)
Chieko Amanuma: 70-72-77-74 (+5, 19th)
Toshimi Kimura: 75-76-74-69 (+6, 22nd)
Orie Fujino: 73-75-74-75 (+9, 35th)
Ya-Huei Lu: 72-75-74-77 (+10, 37th)
Mayumi Shimomura: 75-77-73-75 (+12, 46th)
Woo-Soon Ko: 80-76-76-75 (+18, 85th)

Going by the 2008 Final Qualifying Tournament results, it appears to me that everyone who completes all 4 rounds gets some sort of status on tour in the following year. Ritsuko Ryu finished 93rd at +21 last year, but got into 7 Step-Up Tour and 8 JLPGA events this year, finishing #100 on the money list. So even players like Ko, Sattayabanphot, Kaneda, and Sakurai should have decent odds of playing their way into the top 50 on the JLPGA in 2010, despite their disastrous play this week, if they can avoid missing as many cuts as Ryu ended up doing. Someone like Yumiko Baba, who finished in the mid-50s in Q-School last year, got into 15 JLPGA events this year, but finished #104 on the money list, despite making only 4 cuts. Meanwhile, Maria Iida finished in the high-30s in last year's Q-School, but still played in 30 JLPGA events this year, finishing 46th on the money list and securing full membership for 2010.

So my guess is anyone in the top 50 of this year's Q-School should be able to get into just about any JLPGA event she'll want to next one. It'll be interesting to see just how many events that turns out to be for the big-name LPGAers who have secured dual membership: Candie Kung, Seon Hwa Lee, Inbee Park, Young Kim, and Teresa Lu. By my count, Kung and Lu will bring the total of Taiwanese players with full JLPGA membership next season to 6. When you take into account the 18+ Korean players who will be joining them, it looks like Japan's former colonies are getting some concrete benefits from globalization.

LPGA Q-School Thursday: Chin Chases Down Garrett

Jane Chin took advantage of the more forgiving Champions course with a 65, the low round of LPGA Q-School's Final Qualifying Tournament thus far. Despite making her 2nd bogey of the day on her final hole, Chin caught 1st-round leader Nikki Garrett, who shot a solid 71 on the more challenging Legends course yesterday. They'll get to size each other up on the Legends course today, as they go off the 1st with Katie Kempter, who's only 1 shot behind them after a 69 on the Champions course, around 9:30 this morning.

While scoring wasn't nearly as low as I anticipated, perhaps because winds gusted a little higher than predicted around mid-day at Daytona Beach, Garrett's LET peer Marianne Skarpnord, who won twice on tour this season, did fire a 66 on the Champions course. Still, only 4 other players broke 70 (including Julieta Granada, who did it on the Legends course), so you know there were a lot of disappointed players last night. Still, you have to be at par or better to be in the top 20 right now, so it's not like the field is playing badly. Here's how the top 10 and notables stand:

T1/-6 Jane Chin (73L-65C), Nikki Garrett (67C-71L)
3rd/-5 Katie Kempter (70L-69C)
4th/-4 Nicole Jeray (70C-70L)
T5/-3 Julieta Granada (72C-69L), Lisa Meldrum (71C-70L), Azahara Munoz (69C-72L)
T8/-2 Marianne Skarpnord (76L-66C), Carolina Llano (72L-70C), Sung Ah Yim (71C-71L), Leah Wigger (69C-73L), Gwladys Nocera (68C-74L)

Some pretty solid golf here so far, but there are real opportunities for anyone who can break 70 more than a couple of times this week to take medalist honors.

T13/-1 Young-A Yang (75L-68C), Maria Hernandez (73L-70C), Amanda Blumenherst (72L-71C), Emma Cabrera-Bello (71C-72L)
T20/E Liz Janangelo (74L-70C), Meredith Duncan (72C-72L), Christine Song (71C-73L), Dewi Claire Schreefel (71C-73L), Iben Tinning (70C-74L), Yuko Mitsuka (69C-75L)

It was great to see Yang make the move she did on the Champions course, but surprising to see Mitsuka and Tinning struggle so much on the Legends.

T28/+1 Tamie Durdin (75L-70C), Virada Nirapathpongporn (74L-71C), Jeehae Lee (74L-71C), Lisa Ferrero (74C-71L), Diana D'Alessio (73L-72C), Sarah-Jane Smith (73C-72L), Paola Moreno (72L-73C), Il Hee Lee (69C-76L)

Lots of hanging around among these players, which is not a bad thing to do over the 1st 36 holes of Q-School.

T39/+2 Tania Elosegui (76C-70L), Mariajo Uribe (75C-71L), Pornanong Phatlum (75L-71C), Mallory Blackwelder (74L-72C), Pernilla Lindberg (73C-73L), Nontaya Srisawang (72L-74C), Lisa Strom (71C-75L)

T48/+3 Alison Walshe (74L-73C), Kitty Hwang (73L-74C), Esther Choe (71L-76C)
T56/+4 Ashleigh Simon (75C-73L), Stephanie Connelly (73C-75L)
T58/+5 Miriam Nagl (77C-72L), Sophia Sheridan (77C-72L), Sofie Andersson (77C-72L), Kris Tschetter (77L-72C), Gerina Mendoza (77L-72C), Stephanie Na (72L-77C)
T70/+6 Beatriz Recari (79L-71C), Angela Oh (79L-71C), Lauren Doughtie (77C-73L), Ayaka Kaneko (77C-73L), Erica Blasberg (72C-78L)

Huge wasted opportunities for Choe and Na on the Champions course yesterday, while Elosegui made a nice move on the Legends. But these players will need to get it closer to E over the next few rounds to put themselves in position for a top-20 charge in the final round.

T80/+7 Charlotte Mayorkas (77L-74C), Cindy LaCrosse (77L-74C), Nanette Hill (73C-78L)
T85/+8 Mollie Fankhauser (76L-76C)
T89/+9 Briana Vega (80L-73C), Tiffany Joh (78L-75C)
T99/+11 Hannah Jun (82L-73C)
101st/+12 Aree Song (80L-76C)
103rd/+14 Maru Martinez (79C-79L)

No time to panic yet, but these players will need 2 solid rounds to make the 72-hole cut. Let's get it going, T-Joh! However, it's looking like a cold and rainy day today, so it may be a long, hard slog, provided they're even able to finish the round. It all depends on how much water LPGA International can take.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Kyoraku Cup 2009: Team Korea vs. Team Japan

The Kyoraku Cup starts tomorrow in Okinawa, Japan. Many top Korean players from around the world have elected to play in this team competition rather than go for JLPGA membership in their Final Qualifying Tournament this week, including the LPGA's Na Yeon Choi and Eun-Hee Ji and the KLPGA's Hee Kyung Seo and So Yeon Ryu. But Sun Ju Ahn of the KLPGA has been playing solidly in the JLPGA Q-School (along with the LPGA's Candie Kung, Seon Hwa Lee, Inbee Park, Teresa Lu, Young Kim, Onnarin Sattayabanphot, and Na Ri Kim) while Yuko Mitsuka of the JLPGA has been playing in LPGA Q-School.

Here's how the teams stack up for the 9th playing of the event that started in 1999 (it was cancelled in 2001 due to 9/11 and in 2008 due to snow); I list their position in the current Rolex Ranking and Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index:

TEAM KOREA
Ji-Yai Shin (LPGA): #2 RR, #6 GSPI
Na Yeon Choi (LPGA): #10 RR, #3 GSPI
Hee Kyung Seo (KLPGA): #47 RR, n.r. GSPI
In-Kyung Kim (LPGA): #13 RR, #18 GSPI
Mi-Jeong Jeon (JLPGA): #22 RR, #19 GSPI
Eun-Hee Ji (LPGA): #19 RR, #35 GSPI
Ji-Hee Lee (Captain, JLPGA): #29 RR, #22 GSPI
Bo-Bae Song (JLPGA): #34 RR, #43 GSPI
Sun Young Yoo (LPGA): #35 RR, #16 GSPI
Eun-A Lim (JLPGA): #57 RR, #80 GSPI
So Yeon Ryu (KLPGA): #76 RR, n.r. GSPI
Jeoung-Eun Lee (KLPGA): #93 RR, n.r. GSPI
Bo Mi Lee (KLPGA): #98 RR, n.r. GSPI

TEAM JAPAN
Ai Miyazato (LPGA): #9 RR, #8 GSPI
Sakura Yokomine (JLPGA): #15 RR, #14 GSPI
Shinobu Moromizato (JLPGA): #17 RR, #27 GSPI
Chie Arimura (JLPGA): #21 RR, #28 GSPI
Momoko Ueda (LPGA): #25 RR, #24 GSPI
Miho Koga (JLPGA): #40 RR, #32 GSPI
Yuri Fudoh (JLPGA): #33 RR, #34 GSPI
Akiko Fukushima (JLPGA): #52 RR, #67 GSPI
Yukari Baba (JLPGA): #60 RR, #49 GSPI
Miki Saiki (JLPGA): #65 RR, #81 GSPI
Ayako Uehara (JLPGA): #69 RR, #93 GSPI
Erina Hara (JLPGA): #94 RR, #150 GSPI
Yuko Saitoh (Captain, JLPGA): #107 RR, #122 GSPI

Note that the GSPI doesn't include KLPGA results, so a good part of Team Korea isn't their system. Player of the Year Hee Kyung Seo, for instance, would be ranked in the top 30 if she had played more than 4 events off the KLPGA in the last 52 weeks. And rival So Yeon Ryu would be just outside it if she had played more than 3.

It's also worth noting that almost half of Team Japan is coming off terrible outings last week in the Ricoh Cup. And that Yokomine might be a little let-down after winning her 1st-ever money title after coming just short each of the previous 4 seasons, while money-list leader heading into the JLPGA's final major Moromizato may just be down, period. Oh, and Ai-sama is coming off 2 consecutive finishes in the last events of the LPGA and JLPGA season in which she butchered her final 3 holes of each tournament.

Given all that, I'd say it's advantage Team Korea. True, the Korean Times is right to fret about their lack of experience and the lack of distinction among those who have participated in the past--they could certainly have used the match-play dynamos Seon Hwa Lee and Jee Young Lee, for instance. But with the way the JLPGA's vets have been playing lately, I don't see Fukushima staying undefeated in her career in this event at the end of this year's playing. Of course, a lot depends on who's matched up against who. If they keep the same format as in previous years, they'll be playing 2 sets of 12 18-hole stroke-play 1-on-1 matches on December 4th and 5th. There's a 7-page .pdf file on the event available at the bottom of the JLPGA site that I can neither link directly to nor use google translator on, but it has information on the course at the end that needs no translation.

I have been able to locate the 1st-round matchups:

Ryu v. Fudoh [adv. Korea]
Jeoung-Eun Lee v. Fukushima [adv. Japan]
Song v. Koga [toss-up]
Jeon v. Hara [adv. Korea]
Ji-Hee Lee v. Ueda [toss-up]
Lim v. Saiki [toss-up]
Ji v. Miyazato [adv. Japan]
Seo v. Yokomine [toss-up]
Shin v. Uehara [adv. Korea]
Choi v. Baba [adv. Korea]
Kim v. Arimura [toss-up]
Bo Mi Lee v. Moromizato [adv. Japan]

So Team Korea may have a very slight edge going into play tomorrow. But with 5 toss-up matches and upset opportunities galore, anything can happen.

Here's hoping LPGA Commissioner-to-be Michael Whan is paying attention this week and thinking of how to negotiate an agreement with the LET, JLPGA, and KLPGA to improve the Solheim Cup by synchronizing the formats and timing of their big international team matches and having the winners and losers face off in alternate years. It's great that the LPGA is experimenting with a new limited-field tournament format during their April drought (in Jamaica!), but they need to think much bigger and nail down their August with events that will have a global impact.

[Update 1 (12/4/09, 6:03 am): Great preview from Happy Fan over at tthe Seoul Sisters blog! Funny how fans of opposite teams look at the same players and come to the conclusion the other side has the advantage!]