Shanshan Feng was 4 behind Sun-Ju Ahn heading into today's final round of the Meiji Cup, but she made 5 birdies from the 5th through 11th holes and parred in for a bogey-free 67 that got her to -7 and gave her a 1-shot lead on JLPGA legend Yuri Fudoh (who made her only bogey of the day on the 364-yard par-4 16th to settle for a 67 of her own). Then she could only watch as all the other golfers that had started the day ahead of her failed to match her total--until the final group. Ahn finished with 5 straight pars after bogeying the 354-yard par-4 13th, while Shinobu Moromizato parred the entire back 9 after opening with a 33. When neither of them could birdie the 544-yard par-5 18th, we had ourselves a 3-way playoff.
And Feng won the sudden-death playoff in style. After tying Ahn for 4 straight tries on the par-5 18th (Moromizato had dropped out early in the playoff), Feng hit the green in 2 with a 237-yard 3-wood and sank an eagle putt of over 45 feet. With that putt, Feng not only gave herself a fantastic birthday present--she turns 23 today--but she also laid claim to the title of hottest golfer on the planet. With 2 wins on the JLPGA (both playoff victories!), 1 on the LET, and an LPGA major (the Wegmans LPGA Championship) to her name, Feng now has more worldwide wins than anyone else in women's golf in 2012.
More soon!
[Update 1 (10:24 am): Overshadowed by Feng's amazing victory were strong finishes by Yuki Sakurai, an amateur phenom who's been struggling as a pro, Young Kim, an LPGA transplant who was 15th on the JLPGA money list in 2010, and Na-Ri Kim, another ex-LPGAer who was 11th on the money list in 2010. Chie Arimura, Bo-Mee Lee, and Mayu Hattori all got top 10s, but given how close they were to the lead through 36 holes, they must be disappointed in their final rounds. But with Sakura Yokomine and Rikako Morita finishing T22, Ritsuko Ryu T27, Mi-Jeong Jeon T35, and Ji-Hee Lee T48, they still gained ground on their closest rivals on this year's money list.
1. Mi-Jeong Jeon ￥79.07M
2. Sun-Ju Ahn ￥58.64M
3. Mayu Hattori
￥53.34M
4. Ritsuko Ryu ￥50.90M
5. Chie Arimura ￥50.82M
6. Miki Saiki ￥49.39M
7. Ji-Hee Lee ￥45.57M
8. Shanshan Feng ￥40.48M
9. Bo-Mee Lee ￥39.38M
10. Sakura Yokomine ￥37.37M
11. Rikako Morita ￥33.40M
12. Inbee Park ￥29.62M
13. Hiromi
Mogi ￥29.05M
14. Soo-Yun Kang ￥28.10M
15. Maiko Wakabayashi ￥27.13M
16.
Mihoko Iseri ￥26.25M
17. Kaori Ohe
￥22.71M
18. Megumi Kido ￥21.97M
19. Yuri Fudoh ￥21.79M
20. Hyun-Ju Shin ￥21.12M
21. Shinobu Moromizato ￥20.35M
22. Yuki
Ichinose ￥19.85M
23. Esther Lee ￥18.36M
24. Erina Hara ￥18.30M
25. Ji-Yai Shin ￥17.78M
26. Ayako Uehara ￥17.06M
27. Airi Saitoh ￥16.37M
28. Yumiko Yoshida ￥16.34M
29. Yukari Baba ￥15.92M
30. Bo-Bae Song
￥15.63M
31. So-Hee Kim ￥15.34M
32. Akane Iijima ￥15.31M
33. Erika Kikuchi ￥14.86M
34. Teresa Lu ￥14.62M
35. Young Kim￥14.46M
36. Rui Kitada ￥14.34M
37.
Na-Ri Lee￥13.93M
38. Yeo-Jin Kang ￥13.50M
39. Miki Sakai ￥12.72M
40. Na-Ri Kim ￥12.43M
41. Yuko Fukuda
￥12.19M
42. Harukyo Nomura
￥10.80M
43. Kumiko Kaneda ￥10.57M
44. Da-Ye Na ￥10.03M
45. Eun-Bi Jang
￥9.38M
46. Asako Fujimoto￥8.81M
47. Li-Ying Ye ￥8.59M
48. Natsu Nagai ￥8.58M
49. Junko
Omote￥8.36M
50. Nikki Campbell ￥8.07M
Ahn has no time to be disappointed with her playoff loss, as she has a chance next week to match Feng's feat of defending her title when she rolls into the NEC Karuizawa 72 Ladies. With no Feng, Inbee Park, or Ji-Yai Shin visiting the JLPGA next week--dual members who have taken over 87 million yen away from tour regulars this year--it'll be interesting to see if Ahn, Arimura, and Fudoh can continue their strong play of late, if Jeon, Ryu, Lee, and Morita can bounce back, if ex-LPGAers Kang, Moromizato, Lu, Young Kim, and Na-Ri Kim can make like Feng, and if Shiho Oyama, #103 on the money list in only 2 starts since coming back from injury, can keep on moving up it.
[Update 2 (10:28 am): Pretty amazing that Feng's win here last year was only her 2nd JLPGA start and that she's now won 4 times in the past 12 months on tour!]
Sunday, August 5, 2012
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Meiji Cup Setup: Sun-Ju Ahn's Saturday 67 Gives Her Shot at 1st JLPGA Win since May
Sun-Ju Ahn fired a bogey-free 67 today to get to -6 overall and take a 2-shot lead over Chie Arimura, Shinobu Moromizato, and Young Kim heading into the final round of the Meiji Cup. Ahn is gunning for her 1st JLPGA win since the 1st week of May at the Salonpas Cup, but she's going to have to keep the pedal to the metal to get it tomorrow. Defending champion Shanshan Feng is only 4 shots back after a bogey-free 34 to close out her moving day round (as is Mayu Hattori, who's #2 on the JLPGA money list), while KLPGA star Bo-Mee Lee is 3 behind after making 4 birdies and no bogeys over her final 10 holes today. With money-list leader Mi-Jeong Jeon stuck at T30, 8 shots off Ahn's pace (along with Sakura Yokomine, Shiho Oyama, Soo-Yun Kang, and Nikki Campbell), this is a great opportunity for the JLPGA's leading money winner in the last 2 seasons to make up some serious ground on her rival.
Sunday also represents a big opportunity for a bunch of young Japanese up-and-comers, including amateur Hikari Fujita (72, -3), ex-LET member Yuki Sakurai (73, -3), 22-year-old Rikako Morita (73, -1), 22-year-old Kumiko Kaneda (74, -1), 24-year-old Maiko Wakabayashi (71, -1), and 25-year-old Yumiko Yoshida (70, -1). Moving day was harsher on other youngsters, including Ritsuko Ryu (#4 on the money list) and Harukyo Nomura, who fell 7 off the pace, but at least they'll be playing tomorrow. Megumi Kido, winner of the last JLPGA event, missed the cut, as did Akane Iijima, Teresa Lu, Yukari Baba, and Yuko Mitsuka (among many others).
But all eyes will be on the last 3 threesomes tomorrow. Ahn is paired with Moromizato and Kim, while Arimura, Bo-Mee Lee, and Esther Lee will be right ahead of them and Feng, Sakurai, and Fujita will precede them. Should be an exciting finish!
Sunday also represents a big opportunity for a bunch of young Japanese up-and-comers, including amateur Hikari Fujita (72, -3), ex-LET member Yuki Sakurai (73, -3), 22-year-old Rikako Morita (73, -1), 22-year-old Kumiko Kaneda (74, -1), 24-year-old Maiko Wakabayashi (71, -1), and 25-year-old Yumiko Yoshida (70, -1). Moving day was harsher on other youngsters, including Ritsuko Ryu (#4 on the money list) and Harukyo Nomura, who fell 7 off the pace, but at least they'll be playing tomorrow. Megumi Kido, winner of the last JLPGA event, missed the cut, as did Akane Iijima, Teresa Lu, Yukari Baba, and Yuko Mitsuka (among many others).
But all eyes will be on the last 3 threesomes tomorrow. Ahn is paired with Moromizato and Kim, while Arimura, Bo-Mee Lee, and Esther Lee will be right ahead of them and Feng, Sakurai, and Fujita will precede them. Should be an exciting finish!
Friday, August 3, 2012
What is going on with Yani Tseng?
It seems like just yesterday, that I was writing a post asking if anyone would step up and challenge Yani Tseng. My, how things have changed. In a few short months, Yani has gone from complete dominance to completely out of contention. Let us look at her season so far. I am going to break it down into three parts.
First 5 tournaments:
Wins: 3
Top fives: 4
Top tens: 5
Missed Cuts: 0
Broke par in: 12 of 16 rounds or 75%
Per round average: 69.15
Next 4 tournaments:
Wins: 0
Top fives: 1
Top tens: 3
Missed Cuts: 0
Broke par in: 63.6% of rounds played.
Per round average: 70.36
Last 4 tournaments:
Wins: 0
Top fives: 0
Top tens: 0
Missed cuts: 2
Broke par in: 1 of 12 rounds or 8.3%
Per round average: 74.75
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the steep drop that has occurred. The per round average is alarming. Last year she led the tour with a per round average of 69.66.
Earlier in the year it seemed to me that just about everyone, including myself, was pointing to her as the next great golfer. We had her following in the footsteps of Annika Sorenstam and Lorena Ochoa. Did we all jump the gun?
I started to wonder if Annika or Lorena had suffered through any slumps like this after becoming the best female player in the game. Here is what I found:
You have to look long and hard to find anything resembling a slump after Annika soared to the top.
The worst period I could find was back in 1999, when over a 4-tournament span, she failed to finish in the top ten and posted a per round average of 72.80. Not up to her standards, but not all that bad either.
Lorena became the top player in the world and retired without ever having a slump. Her worst period would be in 2009, when over a period of four tournaments she finished 16th, 6th, 40th, and had a rare missed cut. Her per round average over that period was still a stellar 70.9.
The above shows that neither of those superstars ever had to go through what Yani is going through now.
Some might say that while this makes for a good story, it is too early to draw any conclusions. I say that this bears watching. We have seen examples in all sports that when a player loses confidence, it sometimes takes a very long time to get it back. Sometimes it never comes back. Look at Song-Hee Kim, who in 2010 had more top-10 finishes than anyone on the tour. She now is a long shot to retain her playing card for next year.
One more thought on the subject. A few weeks back I wrote an article on the Americans underachieving, to which I got a huge response. The general consensus was that the Asian players are far outworking the Americans. That opinion seemed unanimous, coming from Asians, Americans, and some of the players themselves. Being around the game as much as I am, I can't disagree. But will they burn themselves out at an early age? Is that what is happening here?
I welcome all opinions on the subject.
Other Tidbits:
Inbee Park has five consecutive top-ten finishes.
The tour's next stop will be in Ohio for the playing of the Jamie Farr Toledo Classic, which I will be attending. An unusual amount of players will be skipping this event. They include Cristie Kerr, Suzann Pettersen, Karrie Webb, Hee Young Park, Catriona Matthew, Maria Hjorth, Sun Young Yoo, Sophie Gustafson, Karen Stupples, Shanshan Feng, Juli Inkster, Caroline Hedwall and Lexi Thompson. Incredibly, there is no television broadcast for this tournament.
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First 5 tournaments:
Wins: 3
Top fives: 4
Top tens: 5
Missed Cuts: 0
Broke par in: 12 of 16 rounds or 75%
Per round average: 69.15
Next 4 tournaments:
Wins: 0
Top fives: 1
Top tens: 3
Missed Cuts: 0
Broke par in: 63.6% of rounds played.
Per round average: 70.36
Last 4 tournaments:
Wins: 0
Top fives: 0
Top tens: 0
Missed cuts: 2
Broke par in: 1 of 12 rounds or 8.3%
Per round average: 74.75
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the steep drop that has occurred. The per round average is alarming. Last year she led the tour with a per round average of 69.66.
Earlier in the year it seemed to me that just about everyone, including myself, was pointing to her as the next great golfer. We had her following in the footsteps of Annika Sorenstam and Lorena Ochoa. Did we all jump the gun?
I started to wonder if Annika or Lorena had suffered through any slumps like this after becoming the best female player in the game. Here is what I found:
You have to look long and hard to find anything resembling a slump after Annika soared to the top.
The worst period I could find was back in 1999, when over a 4-tournament span, she failed to finish in the top ten and posted a per round average of 72.80. Not up to her standards, but not all that bad either.
Lorena became the top player in the world and retired without ever having a slump. Her worst period would be in 2009, when over a period of four tournaments she finished 16th, 6th, 40th, and had a rare missed cut. Her per round average over that period was still a stellar 70.9.
The above shows that neither of those superstars ever had to go through what Yani is going through now.
Some might say that while this makes for a good story, it is too early to draw any conclusions. I say that this bears watching. We have seen examples in all sports that when a player loses confidence, it sometimes takes a very long time to get it back. Sometimes it never comes back. Look at Song-Hee Kim, who in 2010 had more top-10 finishes than anyone on the tour. She now is a long shot to retain her playing card for next year.
One more thought on the subject. A few weeks back I wrote an article on the Americans underachieving, to which I got a huge response. The general consensus was that the Asian players are far outworking the Americans. That opinion seemed unanimous, coming from Asians, Americans, and some of the players themselves. Being around the game as much as I am, I can't disagree. But will they burn themselves out at an early age? Is that what is happening here?
I welcome all opinions on the subject.
Other Tidbits:
Inbee Park has five consecutive top-ten finishes.
The tour's next stop will be in Ohio for the playing of the Jamie Farr Toledo Classic, which I will be attending. An unusual amount of players will be skipping this event. They include Cristie Kerr, Suzann Pettersen, Karrie Webb, Hee Young Park, Catriona Matthew, Maria Hjorth, Sun Young Yoo, Sophie Gustafson, Karen Stupples, Shanshan Feng, Juli Inkster, Caroline Hedwall and Lexi Thompson. Incredibly, there is no television broadcast for this tournament.
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The Best on the LPGA: 2-Time Winners, August 2012 Edition
With Inbee Park joining the ranks of the LPGA's 2-time winners thanks to her Evian Masters win, it's high time I updated my June 2012 ranking and offer up my latest best guesses as to who's most likely to enter "Club 36" (3-to-6-time winners on tour)!
Most Likely to Win (Again) in 2012
1. Inbee Park: She's got a solid combination of distance and accuracy off the tee and can bomb it out there when she wants, but given how great a putter she's been her entire career and how well she's been rolling the ball of late, the stat I'm focusing on is her 66% greens in regulation rate. Just think if her iron play were as solid as her driving--she'd certainly be averaging more than 3.875 birdies per round (which is already 3rd on tour, behind only Ya Ni Tseng and Stacy Lewis). In other words, if she improves in just that one area, the rest of the tour had better watch out for her week in and week out!
2. Anna Nordqvist: Hound Dog claims her rookie season in 2009 was the best by anyone in LPGA history who failed to win the Rookie of the Year award and ranks it 8th overall. What really distinguished it from her last 2 seasons was her driving accuracy that year--she declined from hitting about 77% of her fairways as a rookie to under 70% of late. It's a good sign that she's hitting 73% of her fairways so far this season, but her stats on the greens show where she needs to improve, with 1.81 PPGIR and only 3.352 birdies per round. The good news is she has been putting better in June and July than earlier in the season, as her stats in these areas have improved sharply since my last ranking and she's gotten top 10s in 4 of her last 6 starts. If she continues to heat up on the greens, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her win before summer is over.
3. Sun Young Yoo: After seeming to plateau last year, something in the California air this year must have agreed with the Class of 2006's top late bloomer. After a not-even-close runner-up finish at the Kia to Ya Ni Tseng, she took advantage of In-Kyung Kim's heartbreaking final-hole miss from about a foot and beat her with a birdie in a playoff at the Kraft Nabisco Championship for the 2nd win and 1st major of her career. A straight shooter in the Cristie Kerr/Angela Stanford/Brittany Lang mold, she's doing everything well this year but getting the ball in the hole--if she can improve her 1.84 putts per green in regulation rate, she'll start averaging even more than 3.308 birdies per round and become a more regular visitor to the top of the leaderboard. Unfortunately, she's gone in the opposite direction since last ranking with these stats and her finishes have undergone a similar decline--she's gone from being a regular in the top 20 to falling outside the top 30 her last 2 starts. Still she's been playing better than almost everyone else on this list for most of the season, so I don't see any reason to put her lower in my ranking than this.
The Contenders
4. Morgan Pressel: Until the Sybase, she was on the upswing from a very flat start to 2012 and a huge falloff from her 2011 season, when she was regularly making top 20s and top 10s and had 2 top 3s in majors. Her driving had been the culprit, as one of the most accurate players on tour in a typical year was hitting the fairway off the tee only 65% of the time early in the season. Although she improved it to 71% last ranking, it's since fallen to 68%, due to a combination of emotional scars (from her semi-final match slow play penalty at the Sybase Match Play Championship) and physical ailments (stemming from her practice routine and the rough at the Wegmans LPGA Championship). More ominously, she has 2 WDs and a missed cut in her last 3 starts. I was surprised when I talked with her in Pittsford and in Waterloo in June how low her confidence level was; in retrospect, I can understand why. I'd love to see her turn her season around.
5. Eun-Hee Ji: Last ranking, I concluded, "She could be a real surprise at the Wegmans LPGA Championship." And she was, getting into the final pairing for the final round and finishing T2. Since then, though, she's fallen off a cliff, missing 3 cuts in a row. Even though her putts per green in regulation rate isn't bad at all, she's averaging just over 2.90 birdies per round, which is way below what you need to be doing if you want to be an elite player on the LPGA. Given that her greens in regulation rate has fallen below 70%, I'm guessing it's a combination of her iron play and putting that's been holding her back lately.
6. Meena Lee: She's been driving for show this year on the LPGA, hitting 77% of her fairways, but she couldn't capitalize on her exceptional play in Hawaii and her top 20 at Evian was her 1st since late April in Alabama. Clearly, her putter has cooled off this summer, but with only a 67% greens in regulation rate and declining driving accuracy since my last ranking in early June, I'm guessing that she's off in every area of her game.
7. Momoko Ueda: Her T12 at Evian was her 3rd top 20 of 2012 on the LPGA, she continues to drive the ball well, and she's hitting her irons more solidly (moving her greens in regulation rate up from 62% last ranking to 65% this one) of late, but her putting stats have declined during the same span (from averaging 1.79 PPGIR and 3.33 birdies per round to 1.84 and 3.19). The few times I followed her in Waterloo, I certainly saw her miss her share of makeable birdie chances. So if she can get the ball in the hole just a little faster, I'm thinking we should start seeing her contend more often on the LPGA. I'm hoping she's going to emphasize the LPGA more in the 2nd half of 2012 than she has in her previous 4 seasons as a dual LPGA-JLPGA major. I'm getting the feeling she's very close to putting it all together outside Japan for the 1st time in her career.
Quantum Leap Candidates
8. Katherine Hull: For someone who plays most of the winter at home in Australia, she had a very slow start to the LPGA's 2012 season, with a lone top 20 at the KNC to give some hope, and even after glimmers of brilliance in NJ (with a top 10 at the Sybase when she made the sweet 16 and a runner-up at the ShopRite), she hasn't been able to crack the top 25 ever since. All her key performance stats are just below elite levels, although her 3.22 birdies per round rate isn't half bad given her relative struggles in her other areas.
9. Jimin Kang: She got a T5 early in the season but hasn't done much of anything since she had to withdraw from the Kia Classic. Still, she managed a T21 at the U.S. Women's Open and has a history of pulling solid and even spectacular results seemingly out of nowhere (as evidenced by her top-3 finish in Korea late last season), so let's not be counting her out just yet. Given how bad the rest of her performance stats are looking right now, her averaging over 3.10 birdies per round is pretty amazing, which suggests to me she knows how to take advantage of a hot putter. Only question is whether and when it will get hot in the 2nd half of the season.
10. Michelle Wie: OK, her 1st half of 2012 was pretty nightmarish. It's gotten to the point where I'm just happy to see her playing on the weekend, no matter how early her starting times are. Feel free to throw rotten fruits and vegetables at me in comments for putting her odds of winning over the course of the season higher than the rest of the 2-time winners!
11. Jennifer Rosales: She was a top-30 caliber player from 2002-2005, when she notched her 2 wins and 17 of her 20 top 10s, but she hasn't broken into the top 10 since then. Between injuries and bad golf, she's been missing more cuts than she's made, yet still hanging onto her card. The good news is, she got her 2nd top 20 of the season at the Walmart and she's averaging over 3.31 birdies per round. The bad news is, her key ball-striking and putting stats have gone downhill since the last ranking and she didn't make it into either the USWO or the Evian fields. A lot's going to ride on how well she plays in her remaining starts. Let's see how she handles the pressure.
12. Jeong Jang: It's definitely going to take her awhile to get back in the swing of things, now that she's back from maternity leave after taking all of 2011 off. Let's see if infant Seul Samantha allows her mama enough practice time to return to the form that put her regularly in contention before wrist injuries derailed her career. I got to follow both of them for awhile at the Wegmans LPGA Championship, which turned out to be her best finish in the 1st half of the season, a T15. But she's gotta improve on her dismal greens in regulation rate (58%) to have more weeks like that one in the 2nd half of the season.
On the Bottom, Looking Up
13. Karen Stupples: She hasn't really done anything special this season on the LPGA since getting a top 10 at the Lotte in mid-April and she's riding a 3-event missed-cut streak, but she did improve on her opening score at the Evian by 12 shots on Friday and broke 70 for the 6th time this season and 1st time since the 2nd round at the Manulife in late June, so maybe there's reason for optimism in the run-up to the Women's British Open for this veteran and mother of 2.
14. Ji Young Oh: It's looking more and more like my doubts in February 2010--"Somehow I can't believe that this Junior Mint has as promising a future on the LPGA as the other Young Guns on this list...."--were right on target. She had a disastrous 2011 and even though she's straightened out her driver in 2012 and is starting to make cuts again, almost nothing else in her game is very dependable right now. She hasn't made a top 40 all year and hasn't played competitively since the Walmart a month ago, so it's hard to say where she's headed in the 2nd half of the season.
15. Laura Diaz: She'd been a regular in the top 40 and on the Solheim Cup since 2000, and even had 2 consecutive top-10 seasons early last decade, but coming back from the birth of her daughter a couple of years ago has proven quite difficult. From 2009 to 2011, she found every aspect of the game difficult and is now hanging onto her card by the tips of her fingers, at #132 on the Priority Status List thanks to a 1-time career top 40 exemption. About the only good thing you can say about her 2012 is that she's made the cut in 3 of her last 4 starts.
16. Christina Kim: A 67 on Friday at Evian broke her 4-event missed-cut streak, but even though she continues to get the ball in the fairway with great regularity (although she did drop from 78% to 76% now), she's still lost a lot of distance, and her iron play and putting continue to let her down in a big way, so it's way too soon to say she's seeing any light in the tunnel during the worst slump of her career. Regular readers of her blog know that she's been facing down much more than a terrible slump, though, including a serious back injury, depression, and thoughts of suicide the last 2 years. Here's hoping she can rediscover the fun in the game in the 2nd half of the season and use it to keep those negative thoughts in perspective on and off the course.
17. Stacy Prammanasudh: She, too, is stuck in the worst slump of her career, having made 1 cut in 8 starts so far this season, but maybe baby Ryp Walker will start giving her more practice time soon!
18. Janice Moodie: This 3-time Solheim Cupper has never lost her LPGA tour card, even when she gave birth in 2006 and played only 10 events. But she hasn't won since 2002 and has gotten only 5 of her 44 career top 10s in the last 6 seasons, so it's not like being a mom on tour hasn't taken its toll on her game. With a kindergartner and an infant, both boys, to corral, it's no wonder her putter has been suffering this season. What is surprising is that she hasn't made a cut all year since finishing near the bottom of the pack in Australia to kick off the season.
On the Outside, Looking In
19. Carin Koch: She notched 56 LPGA top 10s between 1995 and 2008, but only 2 wins--and at the Corning Classic and in Mexico (2 warning signs from my 1-time winners' ranking). But she moved back to Sweden in 2009 and has played only the 2 dual LPGA-LET events per season ever since. Don't get me wrong--she's often played well on the LET and is currently #18 on their money list--but she's not giving herself many chances to add to her LPGA win total.
20. Gloria Park: She's still playing full-time at home in Korea.
Most Likely to Win (Again) in 2012
1. Inbee Park: She's got a solid combination of distance and accuracy off the tee and can bomb it out there when she wants, but given how great a putter she's been her entire career and how well she's been rolling the ball of late, the stat I'm focusing on is her 66% greens in regulation rate. Just think if her iron play were as solid as her driving--she'd certainly be averaging more than 3.875 birdies per round (which is already 3rd on tour, behind only Ya Ni Tseng and Stacy Lewis). In other words, if she improves in just that one area, the rest of the tour had better watch out for her week in and week out!
2. Anna Nordqvist: Hound Dog claims her rookie season in 2009 was the best by anyone in LPGA history who failed to win the Rookie of the Year award and ranks it 8th overall. What really distinguished it from her last 2 seasons was her driving accuracy that year--she declined from hitting about 77% of her fairways as a rookie to under 70% of late. It's a good sign that she's hitting 73% of her fairways so far this season, but her stats on the greens show where she needs to improve, with 1.81 PPGIR and only 3.352 birdies per round. The good news is she has been putting better in June and July than earlier in the season, as her stats in these areas have improved sharply since my last ranking and she's gotten top 10s in 4 of her last 6 starts. If she continues to heat up on the greens, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her win before summer is over.
3. Sun Young Yoo: After seeming to plateau last year, something in the California air this year must have agreed with the Class of 2006's top late bloomer. After a not-even-close runner-up finish at the Kia to Ya Ni Tseng, she took advantage of In-Kyung Kim's heartbreaking final-hole miss from about a foot and beat her with a birdie in a playoff at the Kraft Nabisco Championship for the 2nd win and 1st major of her career. A straight shooter in the Cristie Kerr/Angela Stanford/Brittany Lang mold, she's doing everything well this year but getting the ball in the hole--if she can improve her 1.84 putts per green in regulation rate, she'll start averaging even more than 3.308 birdies per round and become a more regular visitor to the top of the leaderboard. Unfortunately, she's gone in the opposite direction since last ranking with these stats and her finishes have undergone a similar decline--she's gone from being a regular in the top 20 to falling outside the top 30 her last 2 starts. Still she's been playing better than almost everyone else on this list for most of the season, so I don't see any reason to put her lower in my ranking than this.
The Contenders
4. Morgan Pressel: Until the Sybase, she was on the upswing from a very flat start to 2012 and a huge falloff from her 2011 season, when she was regularly making top 20s and top 10s and had 2 top 3s in majors. Her driving had been the culprit, as one of the most accurate players on tour in a typical year was hitting the fairway off the tee only 65% of the time early in the season. Although she improved it to 71% last ranking, it's since fallen to 68%, due to a combination of emotional scars (from her semi-final match slow play penalty at the Sybase Match Play Championship) and physical ailments (stemming from her practice routine and the rough at the Wegmans LPGA Championship). More ominously, she has 2 WDs and a missed cut in her last 3 starts. I was surprised when I talked with her in Pittsford and in Waterloo in June how low her confidence level was; in retrospect, I can understand why. I'd love to see her turn her season around.
5. Eun-Hee Ji: Last ranking, I concluded, "She could be a real surprise at the Wegmans LPGA Championship." And she was, getting into the final pairing for the final round and finishing T2. Since then, though, she's fallen off a cliff, missing 3 cuts in a row. Even though her putts per green in regulation rate isn't bad at all, she's averaging just over 2.90 birdies per round, which is way below what you need to be doing if you want to be an elite player on the LPGA. Given that her greens in regulation rate has fallen below 70%, I'm guessing it's a combination of her iron play and putting that's been holding her back lately.
6. Meena Lee: She's been driving for show this year on the LPGA, hitting 77% of her fairways, but she couldn't capitalize on her exceptional play in Hawaii and her top 20 at Evian was her 1st since late April in Alabama. Clearly, her putter has cooled off this summer, but with only a 67% greens in regulation rate and declining driving accuracy since my last ranking in early June, I'm guessing that she's off in every area of her game.
7. Momoko Ueda: Her T12 at Evian was her 3rd top 20 of 2012 on the LPGA, she continues to drive the ball well, and she's hitting her irons more solidly (moving her greens in regulation rate up from 62% last ranking to 65% this one) of late, but her putting stats have declined during the same span (from averaging 1.79 PPGIR and 3.33 birdies per round to 1.84 and 3.19). The few times I followed her in Waterloo, I certainly saw her miss her share of makeable birdie chances. So if she can get the ball in the hole just a little faster, I'm thinking we should start seeing her contend more often on the LPGA. I'm hoping she's going to emphasize the LPGA more in the 2nd half of 2012 than she has in her previous 4 seasons as a dual LPGA-JLPGA major. I'm getting the feeling she's very close to putting it all together outside Japan for the 1st time in her career.
Quantum Leap Candidates
8. Katherine Hull: For someone who plays most of the winter at home in Australia, she had a very slow start to the LPGA's 2012 season, with a lone top 20 at the KNC to give some hope, and even after glimmers of brilliance in NJ (with a top 10 at the Sybase when she made the sweet 16 and a runner-up at the ShopRite), she hasn't been able to crack the top 25 ever since. All her key performance stats are just below elite levels, although her 3.22 birdies per round rate isn't half bad given her relative struggles in her other areas.
9. Jimin Kang: She got a T5 early in the season but hasn't done much of anything since she had to withdraw from the Kia Classic. Still, she managed a T21 at the U.S. Women's Open and has a history of pulling solid and even spectacular results seemingly out of nowhere (as evidenced by her top-3 finish in Korea late last season), so let's not be counting her out just yet. Given how bad the rest of her performance stats are looking right now, her averaging over 3.10 birdies per round is pretty amazing, which suggests to me she knows how to take advantage of a hot putter. Only question is whether and when it will get hot in the 2nd half of the season.
10. Michelle Wie: OK, her 1st half of 2012 was pretty nightmarish. It's gotten to the point where I'm just happy to see her playing on the weekend, no matter how early her starting times are. Feel free to throw rotten fruits and vegetables at me in comments for putting her odds of winning over the course of the season higher than the rest of the 2-time winners!
11. Jennifer Rosales: She was a top-30 caliber player from 2002-2005, when she notched her 2 wins and 17 of her 20 top 10s, but she hasn't broken into the top 10 since then. Between injuries and bad golf, she's been missing more cuts than she's made, yet still hanging onto her card. The good news is, she got her 2nd top 20 of the season at the Walmart and she's averaging over 3.31 birdies per round. The bad news is, her key ball-striking and putting stats have gone downhill since the last ranking and she didn't make it into either the USWO or the Evian fields. A lot's going to ride on how well she plays in her remaining starts. Let's see how she handles the pressure.
12. Jeong Jang: It's definitely going to take her awhile to get back in the swing of things, now that she's back from maternity leave after taking all of 2011 off. Let's see if infant Seul Samantha allows her mama enough practice time to return to the form that put her regularly in contention before wrist injuries derailed her career. I got to follow both of them for awhile at the Wegmans LPGA Championship, which turned out to be her best finish in the 1st half of the season, a T15. But she's gotta improve on her dismal greens in regulation rate (58%) to have more weeks like that one in the 2nd half of the season.
On the Bottom, Looking Up
13. Karen Stupples: She hasn't really done anything special this season on the LPGA since getting a top 10 at the Lotte in mid-April and she's riding a 3-event missed-cut streak, but she did improve on her opening score at the Evian by 12 shots on Friday and broke 70 for the 6th time this season and 1st time since the 2nd round at the Manulife in late June, so maybe there's reason for optimism in the run-up to the Women's British Open for this veteran and mother of 2.
14. Ji Young Oh: It's looking more and more like my doubts in February 2010--"Somehow I can't believe that this Junior Mint has as promising a future on the LPGA as the other Young Guns on this list...."--were right on target. She had a disastrous 2011 and even though she's straightened out her driver in 2012 and is starting to make cuts again, almost nothing else in her game is very dependable right now. She hasn't made a top 40 all year and hasn't played competitively since the Walmart a month ago, so it's hard to say where she's headed in the 2nd half of the season.
15. Laura Diaz: She'd been a regular in the top 40 and on the Solheim Cup since 2000, and even had 2 consecutive top-10 seasons early last decade, but coming back from the birth of her daughter a couple of years ago has proven quite difficult. From 2009 to 2011, she found every aspect of the game difficult and is now hanging onto her card by the tips of her fingers, at #132 on the Priority Status List thanks to a 1-time career top 40 exemption. About the only good thing you can say about her 2012 is that she's made the cut in 3 of her last 4 starts.
16. Christina Kim: A 67 on Friday at Evian broke her 4-event missed-cut streak, but even though she continues to get the ball in the fairway with great regularity (although she did drop from 78% to 76% now), she's still lost a lot of distance, and her iron play and putting continue to let her down in a big way, so it's way too soon to say she's seeing any light in the tunnel during the worst slump of her career. Regular readers of her blog know that she's been facing down much more than a terrible slump, though, including a serious back injury, depression, and thoughts of suicide the last 2 years. Here's hoping she can rediscover the fun in the game in the 2nd half of the season and use it to keep those negative thoughts in perspective on and off the course.
17. Stacy Prammanasudh: She, too, is stuck in the worst slump of her career, having made 1 cut in 8 starts so far this season, but maybe baby Ryp Walker will start giving her more practice time soon!
18. Janice Moodie: This 3-time Solheim Cupper has never lost her LPGA tour card, even when she gave birth in 2006 and played only 10 events. But she hasn't won since 2002 and has gotten only 5 of her 44 career top 10s in the last 6 seasons, so it's not like being a mom on tour hasn't taken its toll on her game. With a kindergartner and an infant, both boys, to corral, it's no wonder her putter has been suffering this season. What is surprising is that she hasn't made a cut all year since finishing near the bottom of the pack in Australia to kick off the season.
On the Outside, Looking In
19. Carin Koch: She notched 56 LPGA top 10s between 1995 and 2008, but only 2 wins--and at the Corning Classic and in Mexico (2 warning signs from my 1-time winners' ranking). But she moved back to Sweden in 2009 and has played only the 2 dual LPGA-LET events per season ever since. Don't get me wrong--she's often played well on the LET and is currently #18 on their money list--but she's not giving herself many chances to add to her LPGA win total.
20. Gloria Park: She's still playing full-time at home in Korea.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Players Battle for Solheim Cup Position
We have reached the halfway point to the next Solheim Cup, which will be held at the Colorado Club in Parker, Colorado. As you may already know, players started accumulating points the very next tournament following last year's match. I don't think it is too early to take a look at the way things are shaping up.
The United States has changed the qualifications for entry. In previous years it was the top ten players who accumulated the most points, and then two captain's picks. They have now changed that to the top eight players off the point list, the 2 highest Rolex ranked players not already in, and 2 captain's picks.
Points are accumulated the following way:
(From the first event after the previous Solheim Cup match in 2011 through the end of the 2012 season)
Winner - 40 points, 2nd - 20 points, 3rd - 18 points, 4th - 17 points, all the way down to 20th - 2 points.
(The 2013 season tournaments, leading up to the Solheim match)
Winner - 60 points, 2nd - 30 points, 3rd - 28.5 points, 4th - 27 points, 5th - 25.5 points, all the way down to a 20th place finish worth 3 points.
The reason for the increased points for the last part of the term is to give an advantage to the players who are hot going into the match.
Lets see where we stand as of today:
1- Stacy Lewis - 349 Points (current Rolex Ranking #2)
2- Cristie Kerr - 178 (current RR #8)
3- Paula Creamer - 178 (current RR #12)
4- Angela Stanford - 150 (current RR #21)
5- Brittany Lincicome - 141 (current RR #16)
6- Brittany Lang - 133 (current RR #24)
7- Morgan Pressel - 70 (current RR # 26)
8- Natalie Gulbis - 70 (Current RR # 68)
The above 8 players would all be in if the tournament was held today.
9- Lexi Thompson - 69 (Current RR #25)
10- Katie Futcher - 69 (current RR #65)
11- Vicky Hurst - 66 (current RR # 68)
12- Michelle Wie - 53 (current RR# 41)
13- Mina Harigae - 49 (current RR #80)
14- Jessica Korda - 45 (current RR #76)
The above 6 players would have failed to qualify via the point system.
Highest Rolex-ranked players that wouldn't have already qualified:
1- Lexi Thompson - Ranked # 25
2- Michelle Wie - Ranked # 41
The above 2 players would get in via the Rolex Rankings.
The ten players above, highlighted in red, would all be on the team if the tournament were held today.
Then it gets interesting, because the team captain will have to pick two more players. As of this writing, that would be a hard decision. None of the remaining players are obvious choices, as none of them are playing that well. Since we have a year to go, I think someone not on this list could get hot, and be a captain's pick. Maybe someone like Jennifer Johnson? Only time will tell.
Another point I would like to make is that the above team is not all that different from the last team. Only Lexi and Natalie would be additions, taking the spots of last year's captain's picks, Ryann O'Toole and Vicky Hurst.
I will keep an eye on this in the weeks leading up to the 2013 Solheim Cup.
Follow @tonyjesselli Tweet
The United States has changed the qualifications for entry. In previous years it was the top ten players who accumulated the most points, and then two captain's picks. They have now changed that to the top eight players off the point list, the 2 highest Rolex ranked players not already in, and 2 captain's picks.
Points are accumulated the following way:
(From the first event after the previous Solheim Cup match in 2011 through the end of the 2012 season)
Winner - 40 points, 2nd - 20 points, 3rd - 18 points, 4th - 17 points, all the way down to 20th - 2 points.
(The 2013 season tournaments, leading up to the Solheim match)
Winner - 60 points, 2nd - 30 points, 3rd - 28.5 points, 4th - 27 points, 5th - 25.5 points, all the way down to a 20th place finish worth 3 points.
The reason for the increased points for the last part of the term is to give an advantage to the players who are hot going into the match.
Lets see where we stand as of today:
1- Stacy Lewis - 349 Points (current Rolex Ranking #2)
2- Cristie Kerr - 178 (current RR #8)
3- Paula Creamer - 178 (current RR #12)
4- Angela Stanford - 150 (current RR #21)
5- Brittany Lincicome - 141 (current RR #16)
6- Brittany Lang - 133 (current RR #24)
7- Morgan Pressel - 70 (current RR # 26)
8- Natalie Gulbis - 70 (Current RR # 68)
The above 8 players would all be in if the tournament was held today.
9- Lexi Thompson - 69 (Current RR #25)
10- Katie Futcher - 69 (current RR #65)
11- Vicky Hurst - 66 (current RR # 68)
12- Michelle Wie - 53 (current RR# 41)
13- Mina Harigae - 49 (current RR #80)
14- Jessica Korda - 45 (current RR #76)
The above 6 players would have failed to qualify via the point system.
Highest Rolex-ranked players that wouldn't have already qualified:
1- Lexi Thompson - Ranked # 25
2- Michelle Wie - Ranked # 41
The above 2 players would get in via the Rolex Rankings.
The ten players above, highlighted in red, would all be on the team if the tournament were held today.
Then it gets interesting, because the team captain will have to pick two more players. As of this writing, that would be a hard decision. None of the remaining players are obvious choices, as none of them are playing that well. Since we have a year to go, I think someone not on this list could get hot, and be a captain's pick. Maybe someone like Jennifer Johnson? Only time will tell.
Another point I would like to make is that the above team is not all that different from the last team. Only Lexi and Natalie would be additions, taking the spots of last year's captain's picks, Ryann O'Toole and Vicky Hurst.
I will keep an eye on this in the weeks leading up to the 2013 Solheim Cup.
Follow @tonyjesselli Tweet
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