Monday, December 10, 2012

Surprises & Disappointments 2012 - Final Look

It was back in July that I last looked at who I thought were the biggest surprises and the biggest disappointments of the 2012 season. Twelve more tournaments were played since then. Many things have changed.

The year ended with winners from eight different countries:
United States 8 - Stacy Lewis (4), Jessica Korda, Brittany Lang, Angela Stanford, Cristie Kerr
South Korea  8 - Inbee Park (2), Na Yeon Choi (2), Jiyai Shin (2), Sun Young Yoo, So Yeon Ryu
Japan 3 - Ai Miyazato (2), Mika Miyazato
Taiwan 3 - Yani Tseng (3)
Norway 2 - Suzann Pettersen (2)
Spain 1 - Azahara Munoz
China 1 - Shanshan Feng
New Zealand 1 - Lydia Ko

The year brought us six first time winners:
Jessica Korda
Azahara Munoz
Shanshan Feng
Brittany Lang
Mika Miyazato
Lydia Ko (non LPGA member)

Here are who I thought were the biggest surprises and disappointments of 2012.

Surprises:

1- So Yeon Ryu - Before the season started I picked her to win the Rookie of the Year Award, which she did quite easily. I just never thought that she would rise to elite status this quickly. Not only did she win in her first season (she had won the U.S. Open previously as a non LPGA player), but she had 12 top 5 finishes and 16 top tens. She only missed the cut one time in 24 starts.

2- Inbee Park - Coming into this season she had better results playing in Asia, than she had on the LPGA tour. Always considered a very good player, she also stepped it up to elite status this year. She started the season slowly, failing to register a top ten in her first 9 starts. She then went on a roll that few have ever seen before on any tour. She had ten consecutive finishes in the top ten. She finished the season with 2 victories, 10 top fives, and 12 top tens. Look for her to compete for the number one spot in the world next year.

3- Stacy Lewis - She was ranked number ten in the world when the year started, so her having a good year was not a big surprise. What was a surprise was just how big her year would be. Stacy became the first American player since 1994 to win the Rolex Player of the Year Award. Not only did Stacy win 4 times, but she had 12 top five finishes and 16 top tens. The Rolex Rankings are based on a rolling 2 year period, which means the 7 wins that Yani Tseng had in 2011 will be wiped off the board during the 2013 season. Look for Stacy to be the favorite to challenge for that # 1 position.

4- Shanshan Feng - Shanshan became the first player to ever win from mainland China. She tends to be a bit more streaky than the three listed ahead of her here. In her finest season to date, Shanshan had 7 top fives and 8 top tens.

5- Azahara Munoz - Azahara made her 3rd season on the LPGA, her finest season by far. The 2010 rookie of the year won the Sybase Match Play Championship, making that one of her five top fives and 9 top tens on the year.

6- Beatriz Recari - Just like Azahara above, Beatriz is also from Spain. In 2010 Beatriz finished 2nd to Azahara for the Rookie of the Year Award, and always seems to be in her shadow. In 2012 Beatriz had a fine year of her own that seemed to go unnoticed. She was one of only 5 players to make every cut (Paula Creamer, Karrie Webb, Na Yeon Choi, and Jiyai Shin were the others), in the 2012 season. She never finished out of the top 20 in her last 6 tournaments of the year.

7- Jenny Shin - Cooled off some the second half of the season, but her 2 top fives and her 5 top tens tell me she has a bright future. She missed only 2 cuts in her 25 starts.

8- Karen Sjodin - Was 2012 a fluke? In her first 6 years on the LPGA tour she was just a marginal player.
Very consistent in 2012, Karen had 9 top twenty finishes, and made 17 of 21 cuts.

Disappointments:

1- Morgan Pressel - What happened to her? Everyone seems to have their own opinion. Was it the well publicized penalty she was given at the Sybase Match Play Championship that cost her a victory? Is she playing with an injury? Is her upcoming wedding distracting her? What we do know is that Morgan, who had missed very few cuts in her entire career, missed 8 cuts in her last 11 tournaments. We also know that she didn't have another top 10 after Sybase, covering 14 tournaments.

2- Christina Kim - One of the more popular players on tour, Christina has failed to play up to her standards for 2 years now. Things have finally hit rock bottom. She teed it up 19 times this year without a top 10, or even being in contention. She failed to make the cut in eleven of those tournaments. This poor play forced her to go back to Q-School to retain her playing privileges. She was not very successful there either. Finishing out of the top twenty she will retain her card, but her priority rating will be so poor that she will be fortunate if she gets into a half dozen events.

3- Michelle Wie - She will not be on this list next year because I am now giving up on my expectations for her. Is there any part of her game that is good right now? If the holes on the greens were the size of manhole covers, she still wouldn't make a putt. In 22 starts this year she had one top ten.

4- Sophie Gustafson - What happened to the lady that won all five of her matches at the Solheim Cup Championship last year? Sophie made 22 starts this year without registering a top 20. In her last 12 starts she didn't even have a top 30.

5- Amanda Blumenherst - It just hasn't been a disappointing year for Amanda, but it is now turning into a disappointing career. Coming out of Duke University 3 years ago, she was supposed to be the greatest thing since the invention of sliced bread. Unfortunatly the only thing I see slicing are her drives. Teeing it up 23 times in 2012, Amanda had just one top 10. In her last 16 events she missed 11 cuts, with her best finish being a tie for 33.

6- Mindy Kim - Mindy had a very poor year with only one top ten and missed 11 of 22 cuts. She could not finish any higher than 25th in her last 10 events.

7- Meena Lee - Always a solid player, Mindy had only 2 top tens in 26 starts

8- Amy Yang - I know her season wasn't all that bad. She did have 5 top tens. The fact remains that she starts every year as the the best player on tour without a win. In 2012 six more players got their first wins, and Amy is still without one.

9- Ryann O'Toole - Everything seemed to go right for Ryann in 2011, she had a hot streak in the middle of the year and was picked for the Solheim Team. Things turned ugly this year. Ryann never was in contention in her 21 starts. Her best finish in stroke play was 37th. She missed her last 8 cuts, and 13 on the season. Barely finishing in a position to retain her card, Ryann better step it up or go it's back to Q-School next year.

10- Tiffany Joh - Her successful rookie season led us to expect good things from her this year. That didn't happen. She failed to have a single top ten finish in 22 starts. She finished in the dreaded 101st spot on the money list, meaning she will miss some tournaments next year.



Monday, December 3, 2012

LPGA Q-School Shocking Results

The LPGA completed its schedule a couple of weeks back, but its most important event took place this past weekend. There was not a lot of coverage, that seems to be reserved for the men, but if you're an LPGA fan this was a most interesting weekend.

There were 124 players that teed it up for this 90 hole event. They would cut the field after the 72nd hole to the top 70 players and ties. There were players entered from all over the world. There were players from the LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, Symetra Tour, and players trying to earn their card for the first time. There were players trying to win back their card after losing it this past year because of poor play. Too put it simply, players' livelihoods were at stake.

This field of of 124 players were all fighting it out to finish in the top 20. You might have read that the top 45 players would receive LPGA cards. That is quite misleading. If you finish in the top 20 you receive Category 12 Priority Status. That means that you have earned full time playing privileges in 2013. If you finish in the number 21-45 spots you receive Category 17 Priority Status.  That means you actually have an LPGA card, but the chances of you ever getting into an event are slim to none. If you happen to get into an event and play well, you can improve your status during one of the two LPGA reshuffles next year. The problem is it is hard to improve your status if you don't get to tee it up.

Now more about those 20 ladies who did earn their full time privileges.

As you could imagine, with 124 participants and only 20 full time spots available, it would be a long shot for your favorite player to get in. To make it even more difficult there were several players from other tours that were already stars, and very highly ranked, that were sure shots to be one of the 20. Or so we thought.

Who in their right mind would have thought that Melissa Reid, one of the top players on the LET, would open with a 79 and shoot herself out of it in the first round?

Who would have thought that such seasoned veterans as Reilly Rankin and Meaghan Francella would not finish in the top 45 and lose their playing cards?

Did anyone think that Solheim Cup veteran Cristina Kim would finish 39th, leaving her with little or no chance of playing on the LPGA next season?

There were pleasant surprises also.

Kathleen Ekey suffered through back problems during her rookie season in 2012, barely making a cut.
She shot a tournament low 65 in the final round and finished in 4th place.

Rebecca Lee Bentham, who had a miserable rookie year making just 4 cuts, finished the co-leader.

There was also the expected.

Moira Jutanugarn was the other co-leader.
Japanese stars Ayako Uehara and Chie Arimura breezed in with little trouble.
Caroline Masson, the German born LET star, also made it in quite easily.

Here is the complete top 20 players who earned full playing status for 2013:

T1Rebecca Lee-Bentham-13
T1Moriya Jutanugarn-13
3Ayako Uehara-12
4Kathleen Ekey-10
T5Chie Arimura-8
T5Lisa McCloskey-8
7Felicity Johnson-7
T8Karlin Beck-6
T8Laura Diaz-6
10Stephanie Sherlock-5
T11Kayla Mortellaro-4
T11Kim Welch-4
T11Brooke Pancake-4
T11Austin Ernst-4
T11Caroline Masson-4
T11Marina Stuetz (a)-4
T17Lauren Doughtie-3
T17Irene Cho-3
T17Taylore Karle-3
T17Nicole Jeray-3

The  2013 Rookie of the Year race should be very competitive next year.
Chie Arimura is already ranked #19 in the Rolex World Rankings.
Caroline Masson is ranked #50, and at 23 years old has her best years ahead of her.
Ayako Uehara is ranked #69.
These 3 players will be the favorites.
Add to that  future stars, Esther Choe and Victoria Elizabeth, who earned their cards on the Symetra Tour, and Brook Pancake who led Alabama to the 2012 NCAA Championship, and we should have one hell of a race.




Monday, November 26, 2012

How My Top 30 Predictions Turned Out.

The LPGA talent is unquestionably at its highest level ever. With so many great players, it seemed we had a different winner every week. In fact the 27 tournaments played, brought us seventeen different winners. We had winners from eight different countries. The LPGA has truly become the international tour that Commissioner Michael Whan predicted it would be when he took the commissioner's job a few years back.
The number of tournaments has grown from 23, when Mr. Whan took the reigns, to 27 this year. In about 6 weeks the 2013 schedule will be released, and rumor has it that we could have 30 tournaments. In these troubled times for our economy, the LPGA is heading in the right direction.

Back in January, I released my top 30 predictions for the 2012 Rolex Player of the Year. It was a very strange year with the "sure shot" Yani Tseng crumbling the second half of the season, and players like Inbee Park and So Yeon Ryu reaching levels we didn't think were possible. On the down side Morgan Pressel, Michelle Wie, and Song-Hee Kim, forgot what it was like to be on the leader board.

Let's take a look at how well my predictions went:

1- Yani Tseng - Everyone predicted this, and everyone was wrong. After winning 3 of the first 5 tournaments of the year, Yani failed to win again the rest of the season. With the exception of a brief period during the Asian swing, she wasn't even competitive the final two thirds of the season. Not many will be predicting her to be #1 in 2013.

2- Suzann Pettersen - After playing poorly most of the season, Suzann won twice to finish 10th and make my prediction look a little better.

3- Paula Creamer - Losing a nine hole playoff at the Kingsmill Classic was her high point of the year. Seven top tens would be a great season for most players, but not up to Paula's standards. Finishing 17th, made me look bad.

4- Stacy Lewis - I picked her higher than anyone I know. It just wasn't high enough. Four wins, 12 top fives, and 16 top tens, resulted in Stacy becoming the first American Player of the Year since 1994.

5- Na Yeon Choi - I was right on with this pick as Na Yeon finished 3rd.

6- Cristie Kerr - Even with her late win at the Lorena Ochoa Classic, she only finished 14th.

7- Brittany Lincicome - After winning twice in 2011, Brittany was shut out this year. She finished 19th.

8- I.K. Kim - If she could only have sunk that 18 inch putt, my prediction would have looked a whole lot better. As it turned out she missed it and never seemed to recover. She finished 21st in the Player of the Year race.

9- Ai Miyazato - Ai made me look good by finishing seventh.

10- Jiyai Shin - Not a bad prediction here, Jiyai finished 6th.

11- Angela Stanford - My streak continues with another good pick, Angela finished 13th.

12- Morgan Pressel - All good things must come to and end as this was amongst my worst picks. After her controversial 3rd place finish at the Sybase Match Play Championship, her year just completely fell apart. She finished 49th.

13- Lexi Thompson - Lexi had a fine rookie year, just not as good as I predicted. She finished at the #23 spot.

14- So Yeon Ryu - I knew she was good, that's why I picked this rookie this high. I just didn't think she would be this good this fast. She finished #5.

15- Amy Yang - She watched as Mika Miyazato, Jessica Korda, Lydia Ko, Brittany Lang, Shanshan Feng, and Azahara Munoz all won for the first time. Finishing in 18th place, Amy is still without a victory.

16- Michelle Wie - I have been a big defender of this girl for a long time. I now think she would lose to the thirteen year old version of herself. She finished an embarrassing 68th.

17 - Mika Miyazato - Won her first tournament, and finished 9th in Player of the Year rankings.

18- Brittany Lang - She also won her first tournament in 2012. I was pretty much on this one as she finished 22nd.

19- Maria Hjorth - Did anyone see the real Maria Hjorth in 2012? I didn't. She never earned a single player of the year point.

20- Catriana Matthew - Made me look good with her 23rd place finish.

21- Anna Nordqvist - Made me look even better with her 20th place finish.

22- Karrie Webb - I underestimate her every year. She finished 15th.

23- Sun Young Yoo - I.K's missed putt made me look bad here also. Sun Young wound up winning that major championship and finished 12th in the rankings.

24- Sandra Gal - Sandra had an up and down year, finishing 32nd.

25- Hee Kyung Seo - After a hot start she cooled off some, still finishing a solid 15th.

26- Azahara Munoz - Took it to another level in 2012 with her first victory. She finished a better than expected 11th.

27- Caroline Hedwall - After a hot start she just plain disappeared, leaving her at #47.

28- Numa Gulyanamitta - Every year I try to pick one rookie I think will be a surprise. Every year I pick the wrong rookie. I could have picked Sydnee Michaels or Lizette Salas, who scored some Player of the Year points, but of course my pick here didn't earn a single point.

29- Inbee Park - What can I say? Until this year she was just a good player. The people at the Seoul Sisters website must be laughing at me for this pick.  Did I mention she finished 2nd?

30- Song-Hee Kim - How bad was she? She will be going back to Q-School this week to try to get her playing card back.

I admit it, I am not the world's best prognosticator. But I do try to keep everyone entertained. Stay tuned, I do not give up, and will give you my 2013 picks soon.



Monday, November 19, 2012

Rating the Rookies Part 3 - Final Analysis

As we all know the 2012 LPGA season has come to its conclusion. It is time to take one final look at the 33 rookie players. These ratings are strictly based on how they fared on the LPGA tour this season. Any successes or failures on other tours are not considered here. Success in retaining their LPGA tour cards was the determining factor for my final grades.

The Best

So Yeon Ryu - The 2012 Rookie of the Year had one of the best rookie seasons of all time. She made 23 of 24 cuts, and was #6 on the money list. Winner of the Jaime Farr Toledo Classic, she had 12 top five finishes and 16 top tens. Already ranked #8 in the world, if she can turn some of those top 5's into victories she could climb all the way to the top.

Lexi Thompson - Even without a victory in 2012, Lexi had a terrific year. This seventeen year old star had 4 top 5 finishes and made 19 of 23 cuts. She finished #21 on the money list, which was better than some huge stars such as: Brittany Lincicome, Brittany Lang, Hee Kyung Seo, and I.K. Kim. She has already vaulted up the world rankings to #24.

Lizette Salas - When the season started who would have thought she would be rated this high? Who even knew who she was? We know now. She finished 9th in Malaysia and had 5 top 20 finishes. She made 16 of 18 cuts and finished # 51 on the money list.

Sydnee Michaels - Sydnee really struggled coming out of the gate missing the cut in 4 of her first 7 events. She then settled down and had a fine rookie season. Sydnee opened some eyes with her 7th place finish at the Shoprite Classic, and went on to have 5 top 20 finishes. She ultimately went on to make 13 of 19 cuts and finish #62 on the money list. The U.S. Open takes the top 70 players from the LPGA money list, so Sydnee has earned her spot for next year.

Danielle Kang - Just like Michaels above, Danielle also made 13 of 19 cuts. She was in contention on the last day of the Kingsmill Classic, and wound up finishing 3rd. She had 4 top 20 finishes and wound up #52 on the money list. This two time amateur champion is going to be a top ten player very soon.


Consider Them a Success

Mo Martin - A late bloomer at 30 years old, Mo had a very good season. Making 15 of 21 cuts enabled her to climb to #63 on the money list. Her best finish was 14th at the Walmart Classic. I'll be keeping an eye on her next year to see if she can duplicate this year's performance.

Maude-Aimee Leblanc - A serious back injury ended her season after just 8 tournaments. At the time of the injury she was in the top 60 on the money list. She made 5 of 8 cuts, and was leading the entire LPGA in driving distance when her season came to abrupt end. Because of her injury, her place on the Priority list will remain the same, so if she is healthy we will be seeing a lot of her next year. This lady is a real dark horse.

Veronica Felibert - Veronica made only 5 of 14 cuts, but her year was considered a success because of a 4th place finish at the Walmart Classic. That finish enabled her to finish #75 on the money list. Not good enough for the U.S. Open, but good enough to play most everywhere else.

Carlotta Ciganda - Already a superstar on the Ladies European Tour where she won three times this year, Carlotta only teed it up on the LPGA 3 times. She made the cut easily in all three events ( U.S. Open, Evian Masters, and British Open), and finished #85 on the LPGA money list. Already ranked #57 in the world, it remains to be seen if she will play more on the LPGA tour next year.

Just Barely Good Enough

Numa Gulyanamitta - Making 8 of 16 cuts, Numa finished #87 on the money list. Her best finish was 21st at the U.S. Open.

Jacqui Concolino - Her 11th place finish at the Jaime Farr Toledo Classic saved her season, and allowed her to retain her card. She made just 4 of 11 cuts, and finished #95 on the money list. She will still get into most full field events next year.

Jane Rah - Jane's season might have been a disaster if it wasn't for a 9th place finish at the CN Open. She missed her first 10 cuts of the season before straightening herself out and making 5 of the last 6. At #92 on the money list she will be teeing it up in most events next year.

Retaining Their Card Through the Symetra Tour

Mi Hyang Lee - Because of her low priority rating, Mi got into just 5 tournaments last year. Making just two cuts and a best finish of T53, she finished #149 on the money list. That ranking would have had her going back to qualifying schoool, if it wasn't for the fact she finished in the top ten on the Symetra tour. That Symetra Tour finish will guarantee her full time playing privileges on the LPGA next year.

Thidapa Suwannapura - Playing in only one tournament on the LPGA this year because of a bad priority ranking, she played most of the season on the Symetra tour. Finishing in the top ten on that tour enables her to retain her full playing card for next year.

They Are Going Back to Qualifying School

The following players did not play well enough this year, and have registered to go back to Qualifying School to try and get their LPGA cards for 2013. Judging by past years, most of these players will fail and we will not be seeing them again. Phase 3 of Q-School will be played from November 28th to December 2nd. 126 players will be teeing it up in that 90 hole event. Only the top 40 players will get playing cards. Of that 40, only the top 20 will have a priority rating good enough to get full time playing privileges next year.

Lacy Agnew - Made just 1 of 7 cuts. Best finish 64th. 162nd on money list.
Karlin Beck - Made just 3 of 14 cuts. Best finish 46th. 146th on money list.
Rebecca Lee-Bentham - Made only 4 of 14 cuts. Best finish 41st. 134th on money list.
Sandra Changkija - Made just 4 of 14 cuts. Best finish 10th. 112th on money list.
Cydney Clanton - Made just 4 of 15 cuts. Best finish 19th. 121st on money list.
Valentine Derrey - Made 1 of 3 cuts. Best finish 62nd. 160th on money list.
Kirby Dreher - Made 0 of 5 cuts.
Kathleen Ekey - Made just 3 of 15 cuts. Best finish 45th. 142nd on money list.
Katy Harris - Made just 1 of 6 cuts. Best finish 64th. 161st on money list.
Hanna Kang - Made just 1 of 7 cuts. Best finish 35th. 165th on money list.
Mitsuki Katahira - Made 1 of 4 cuts. Best finish 55th. 155th on money list.
P.K. Kongkraphan - Made 1 of 3 cuts. Best finish 67th. 151 on money list.
Stephanie Kono - Made 0 of 14 cuts.
Min Seo Kwak - Made just 1 of 7 cuts. Best finish 37th. 148 on money list.
Tzu-Chi Lin - Made 1 of 4 cuts. Best finish 70th. 164th on money list.
Elisa Serramina - Made just 1 of 13 cuts. Best finish 70th. 157 on money list.
Victoria Tanco - Made 5 of 15 cuts. Best finish 37th. 118th on money list.
Hannah Yun - Made just 4 of 14 cuts. Best finish 30th. 117th on money list

Juliana Murcia Ortiz - Played one tournament, missed cut, and lost playing card. Didn't register for Q-School.


Monday, November 12, 2012

CME Group Titleholders Preview & Pairings

A big congratulations goes out to Cristie Kerr for winning the Lorena Ochoa Invitational. Cristie finished one stroke ahead of Inbee Park and Angela Stanford, to win for the first time since 2010.

This week the tour moves back to the United States for the playing of the CME Titleholders Championship.
This tournament is very unique as its field is made up of the 3 highest finishers (not already qualified), from the first 26 events of the year.

This is the 27th and final tournament of the year. Here are some key details:

Course:  The Twin Eagles Club
Location:  Naples, Florida
Defending Champion:  Hee Young Park
Winning Score:  71-69-69-70 = (-9)

Final Field:    73 players
Par: 36/36=72
Yardage:  Not currently available
Purse:  $1,5000,000

Here are the first round pairings.
In spite of the limited field, this will be one of the strongest fields of the season. The top 26 players on the LPGA Priority List, and 18 of the top 20 players in the world will be teeing it up.

Here are the television times:
Nov 15 - GC 1:30 PM-4:00 PM EST
Nov 16 - GC 1:30 PM-4:00 PM EST
Nov 17 - GC 1:30 PM-4:00 PM EST
Nov 18 - GC 1:30 PM-4:00 PM EST

Other Tidbits:
Yani Tseng's lead over number two player in the world Stacy Lewis, is now just 2.92 points. It was 9.47 in April.

Titleholders Update:
Lorena Ochoa (yes she is still an LPGA member), Kristy McPherson, and Tanya Dergal are the final players to qualify. Some of the bigger named players who failed to qualify are: Sophie Gustafson, Julie Inkster, Karen Stupples, Mindy Kim, Jimin Kang, Ryann O'Toole, and Amanda Blumenherst.

Rolex Ranking Mover of the Week:
Cristie Kerr moves from #15 to #11.

Who's Hot:
Beatriz Recari has five consecutive top 20 finishes.

Who's Not:
After a fast start, Eun-Hee Ji, has failed to finish in the top 10 in fourteen consecutive tournaments.