Wednesday, November 19, 2008

ADT Championship Preview/Predictions/Pairings

The ADT Championship is finally here! Be sure to check out the Hound Dog preview and the Average Golfer preview, along with the LPGA preview. And don't miss the pre-tournament interviews, where Morgan Pressel and Cristie Kerr give very detailed answers to a lot of tough questions.

The field, the format, the course, and especially the winner's share of the purse make this a very different tournament than any other. As I mentioned a few days ago, half the field is playing better than the other half heading into this week. But as Golf Observer's historical results make crystal clear, very few of the players who qualified this season have much experience with the format and even fewer have experienced much success in it, either in 2006 or 2007. If you don't believe me, check out my posts from last year and overview of '07 ADT blogging.

So while Lorena Ochoa and Paula Creamer are obvious picks in this week's PakPicker, who else to go with is another story entirely. The 4 Junior Mints in the field at least have some experience with the event, while the 6 Super Sophs have less and the 3 rookies none at all. How many of them will break through this season to the final 8? Let's just say that I'm not very optimistic for them.

1. Ochoa
2. Creamer
3. Shin
4. Tseng
5. Stanford
6. Hull
7. Kerr
8. Sorenstam
9. Jang
10. Lee Jee Young
11. Kim In-Kyung
12. Lee Seon-Hwa

Alts: Choi Na Yeon, Pettersen, Yoo

The pairings are kind of amazing: going off 1st are Shanshan Feng and Ji-Yai Shin, two of the hottest players in the world over the 2nd half of the season. Now, while the Sorenstam/Tseng and the Ochoa/Creamer pairings at the end of the morning are the obvious must-see players, the one that I think has the most entertainment value is the Christina Kim/Maria Hjorth pairing early in the day. Both are fearless players who are as capable of eagling as double bogeying any hole they play. Watch out for some real roller-coaster rounds from those 2 on Thursday and Friday.

Hopefully Verdant Garden's on-course reporting at Seoul Sisters.com will give us a lot of behind-the-scenes insight into the final event of the season!

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Predicting the LPGA's 2009 Schedule

Sal Johnson reports some rumors about the LPGA's 2009 schedule that should interest Hound Dog, Ryan Ballengee, Bill Jempty, key LPGA online communities, and the rest of us who follow the LPGA closely. As Ryan points out, though, Jon Show's recent piece on the '09 schedule is the place to start.

Show doesn't foresee too many changes from the current schedule in 2009. He reports that the LPGA has committed to running the ex-Safeway International event in Phoenix the week before the Kraft Nabisco, that there's hope for the ex-Semgroup Championship in Tulsa which precedes the Michelob Ultra, and that the Wegmans in Rochester is looking for an extension. This is mostly consistent with what Johnson passes along, but Hound Dog puts the Wegmans (and the Farr) in prime time between the LPGA Championship and the U.S. Women's Open, which leads me to believe that a deal is close to bring the LPGA back to western NY.

So let's review the big picture and focus on the gaps. In 2008, the LPGA started with an Asian-Pacific swing, moved to the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico in the spring, bounced all over the eastern U.S. till the beginning of summer, when it then moved to the midwest, Europe and Canada/Oregon, and back to the south, before finishing up in the fall with a limited-field Asian-Pacific swing and elite events in Guadalajara and Palm Beach. 2009 looks to be fairly similar, minus the midwestern swing--with the Farr moving earlier, the State Farm moving even earlier (to replace the Ginn tribute in preceding the LPGA Championship), and the NW Arkansas event moving back to September--and with the bouncing around the east being a little less Tigger-esque. Unless the Safeway Classic were to move after the U.S. Women's Open and before Evian, the bouncing around will move to the fall, as it would have to come between the NW AK event and the southern swing. I'm assuming the fall Asian-Pacific swing will pretty much remain as it was this season.

Unfortunately for the LPGA, this means that the beginning of the 2009 schedule has the most gaps. With the Fields gone, it's possible for a new Asian stop to follow the SBS in mid-February and precede the Thailand event in late February and another one to follow the HSBC event in early March and precede the MasterCard Classic in Mexico in late March. But if not, there are two early-season dead weeks that will make the run-up to the first major as choppy as it was this year. Other dead weeks--following the Kraft Nabisco, following the Ginn Open, and preceding the Michelob Ultra--suggest that April is indeed the cruelest month. With the Stanford International most likely moving to Houston and becoming a season-ending event to replace the ADT Championship for 2009, the LPGA must be furiously searching for southern or mid-Atlantic events for that part of the spring. At the very least, a tune-up event before the Michelob Ultra is a must.

Apparently the LPGA will announce its schedule on Wednesday. I'm hoping they'll be able to bring some new life to those early-season dead weeks, as resurrection is out of the question for the Fields, the Corona, the Ginn Tribute, and the ADT. But I'm not holding my breath.

[Update 1 (4:19 pm): More leaks coming out today. The Tulsa World reports that the Tulsa event is dead in 2009, the LPGA confirms the Michelob Ultra is back, and Geoff Shackelford suggests that Show's source is spinning like a dervish.]

[Update 2 (11/19/08, 4:44 am): Show got mentioned by the New York Times!]

Monday, November 17, 2008

Lorena Ochoa Invitational Sunday: Stanford Prevails over Sorenstam and Lang

Whether you get your news from LPGA.com, Golf Channel, the AP, Average Golfer, or, as you should, Hound Dog, you probably know that Angela Stanford is the champion of the inaugural Lorena Ochoa Invitational. Congratulations to Angela for holding off a living legend and a Junior Mint who set the tournament record, moving into everyone's top 10 list, breaking the million-dollar barrier in season winnings, and putting herself among the favorites in next week's season-ending winner-takes-a-million ADT Championship.

Congratulations, too, to Nicole Castrale (72, -4, T14) and Meena Lee (66, -8, T4), who held onto the last pair of 2nd-half spots for the ADT, and to Sun Young Yoo (70, -8, T4), who leapfrogged Christina Kim and Sophie Gustafson to snatch the 1st wild card. Despite playing terribly the last 2 weeks, Kim is also in the ADT, thanks to stumbles by Gustafson and Jane Park this weekend--not to mention the clutch play of Stanford, who denied Brittany Lang her own storybook ending just as much as Sorenstam.

In addition to Lang's and Lee's fantastic final rounds, Seon Hwa Lee fired a 67 to get to -5 for the tournament, while Jeong Jang's 68 included a 31 on the front. I saw enough from them this week to consider them among the top contenders next week. Stanford, Sorenstam, Ji-Yai Shin, Hull, Jee Young Lee, Cristie Kerr, Paula Creamer, Lorena Ochoa, Ya Ni Tseng, Seon Hwa Lee, Jeong Jang, In-Kyung Kim, Na Yeon Choi, Song-Hee Kim, Suzann Pettersen, and Sun Young Yoo are the most likely ones to make it to Saturday. Who will be the 8 players competing for that million-dollar 1st prize on Sunday? The ADT is shaping up to be quite the season finale!

[Update 1 (2:34 am): Nice piece on Rafael Alarcon that efficiently tells the story of how Lorena learned golf from him over the years--and why she's the world #1.]

[Update 2 (9:39 am): Here's Hound Dog's epilogue.]

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Ito-En Ladies Sunday: Can Anyone Catch Koga?

Miho Koga is on fire in the final round of the Ito-En Ladies. Riding a 6-hole birdie train between the 5th and the 10th, she's gotten to -14 as she heads to the 14th tee and has opened up a 4-shot lead on Ai Miyazato, Ji-Hee Lee, Yuko Mitsuka, and Bo-Bae Song. Lee and Miyazato have bogey-free rounds going and enough holes to make some more birdies, while Mitsuka has as many birdies (7) and bogeys (1) as the leader but only has the par-4 18th left to play and Song has made 5 birdies and no bogeys since the 8th hole but only has 2 holes to go. Shiho Oyama and Mayu Hattori are 5 back with about as many holes remaining, so could still put on the kind of charge that Miki Saiki made to finish at -9--a 31 on the back that featured 6 birdies in her last 8 holes.

All this will be moot, of course, if Koga keeps up her hot play. I wouldn't be sad to see her get her 3rd win of the season, but I would love to see Ai-chan chase her down. Stay tuned!

[Update 1 (1:37 am): Here's a neat little factoid on Koga's season thus far: she hasn't broken 67 all year, except for her very 1st round, a 63, and her latest one. So she's got a great chance to set a season scoring and career winning mark today: a 66 or better would pretty much assure her of her 1st 3-win season.]

[Update 2 (1:59 am): By the way, the guys are lighting up the course, too, with Ryo Ishikawka, Ryuji Imada, and Shingo Katayama, among many others, trying to chase down Shintaro Kai, who's -8 through 14 and -15 overall. Meanwhile, it's a free-for-all on the Asian Tour in the Singapore Masters, where Padraig Harrington and Jeev Milkha Singh have caught Chapchai Nirat at -8 and 7 other players are within 3 shots of the lead as they make the turn, including Ernie Els and Thomas Bjorn.]

[Update 3 (2:31 am): Still waiting for the scoreboard to update, so I'll just note that the 15th has given up an eagle already today and the 17th and 18th have seen a lot of bogeys and doubles, so anything can still happen (if it hasn't already!).]

[Update 4 (4:11 am): Koga did it! After what turned out to be her last birdie of the day on the 10th hole, she made 8 straight pars before bogeying the final hole. As Ai-chan was unable to continue her 2-hole birdie streak on the 14th and 15th that got her to -11 and Yuko Mitsuka's final-hole birdie that had earlier made her leader in the clubhouse at -11 was not enough to put all that much pressure on Koga and nobody else stepped up down the stretch, Koga was able to get her 3rd win of the season without breaking 67 for the 3rd time.

Here are the top 10 and notables:

T1/-13 Koga (70-66-67)
T2/-11 Mitsuka (72-68-65), Miyazato (70-67-68)
T4/-10 Song (69-69-68), Hattori (66-71-69), Oyama (64-72-70)
T7/-9 Saiki (72-69-66), Yuki Ichinose (72-66-69), Yun-Jye Wei (70-68-69)
T10/-8 Midori Yoneyama (75-66-67), Mie Nakata (70-69-69), Ji-Hee Lee (69-67-72)

T14/-7 Kaori Higo (69-71-69), Maiko Wakabayashi (68-72-69), Momoko Ueda (68-70-71), Yuri Fudoh (69-68-72)
T19/-6 Ayako Uehara (70-70-70), Erina Hara (68-70-72), Rui Kitada (73-64-73), Sakura Yokomine (68-69-73)
T24/-5 Akane Iijima (72-69-70), Hiroko Yamaguchi (71-68-72)
T27/-3 Ji-Woo Lee (70-72-71)
T33/-1 Hiromi Mogi (73-71-71), Esther Lee (73-70-72), Yukari Baba (72-71-72), Akiko Fukishima (69-69-77)
T37/E Mi-Jeong Jeon (74-69-73), Tamie Durdin (73-70-73), Chie Arimura (72-69-75), Eun-A Lim (71-70-75)
T41/+1 Yuki Sakurai (70-68-78)
T43/+2 Nikki Campbell (69-72-77)

Here's where the money list stands, heading into the final 2 events of the JLPGA season:

1. Ji-Hee Lee ¥114.26M
2. Miho Koga ¥95.85M
3. Akiko Fukushima ¥88.94M
4. Sakura Yokomine ¥85.50M
5. Yuri Fudoh ¥79.61M
6. Mi-Jeong Jeon ¥78.60M
7. Shiho Oyama ¥75.04M
8. Yuko Mitsuka ¥73.17M
9. Eun-A Lim ¥68.89M
10. Ji-Yai Shin ¥65.41M [should be #23, ¥44.80M--see below]
11. Erina Hara ¥64.34M
12. Hyun-Ju Shin ¥64.20M
13. Ayako Uehara ¥61.42M
14. Shinobu Moromizato ¥58.39M
15. Bo-Bae Song ¥58.31M
16. Mayu Hattori ¥57.66M
17. Esther Lee ¥53.62M
18. Hiromi Mogi ¥51.52M
19. Akane Iijima ¥49.45M
20. Miki Saiki ¥49.09M
21. Maiko Wakabayashi ¥48.81M
22. Momoko Ueda ¥47.30M
23. Chie Arimura ¥46.16M
24. Ji-Woo Lee ¥43.33M
25. Hiroko Yamaguchi ¥42.40M
26. Yukari Baba ¥42.52M
27. Midori Yoneyama ¥36.59M
28. Rui Kitada ¥35.42M
29. Saiki Fujita ¥31.27M
30. Yun-Jye Wei ¥27.87M
31. Mie Nakata ¥27.85M
32. Nikki Campbell ¥27.04M
33. Yuko Saitoh ¥25.28M
34. So-Hee Kim ¥24.89M
35. Ai Miyazato ¥21.59M

The biggest leap up the list was not Koga's but Ji-Yai Shin's--apparently the JLPGA is counting her non-member win in her season winnings--don't tell me they're nt recruiting her for 2009!]

[Update 5 (4:15 am): By the way, Katayama won on the JGTO and Singh on the Asian Tour.]

[Update 6 (4:30 am): May as well complete my early-am Asian update: Hee Kyung Seo took the KLPGA/LET win away from Sun-Ju Ahn with a closing 66. The LPGA's H.J. Choi took T13, Veronica Zorzi was the best LET finisher at T15, while Anna Rawson (T17), Johanna Head (T24), Gwladys Nocera and Amy Yang (T28) were among the relatively few foreigners to crack the top 30. Looks like it's official: ranking the strength of women's tours in 2008 results in LPGA, JLPGA, KLPGA, and LET.]

[Update 7 (11/17/08, 2:27 am): Hmmm, Shin is back to #23 on the JLPGA money list at ¥44.80M--looks like some staffer got a little imaginative over in the home office!]

Lorena Ochoa Invitational Saturday: Stanford Opens the Door

Like Shiho Oyama on the JLPGA, 2nd-round leader Angela Stanford squandered a great opportunity to run away from the field yesterday in the LPGA's penultimate tournament of 2008, the Lorena Ochoa Invitational. On a day when leading challengers were dropping like flies--Ya Ni Tseng fired a 78, Meena Lee and Seon Hwa Lee 76s, Karen Stupples a 75--Stanford had to fight back for a 72 after starting with 2 bogeys in her 1st 5 holes. In so doing, she stayed just ahead of a new chase pack, lead by Annika Sorenstam (67) 1 shot back at -9, Katherine Hull (66) at -8, and Jee Young Lee (69) at -7. But, really, she's lucky to be ahead at all.

Sorenstam was -10 through 14 and on an incredible roll, with 5 birdies and an eagle to her name against only 1 bogey, but once again, the closing holes proved to be her undoing. Although she made 1 fewer bogey than Friday's 3 in her last 4 holes and 1 more birdie--her 2nd in 3 tries on the par-5 18th--her back-to-back bogeys on the 16th and 17th were her 2nd in 3 tries on each hole. That's not the kind of recent history you want in your head as you're coming down the stretch Sunday, hopefully in contention. Hull's 66 was bogey-free, at least, but it also represented her cooling off after a sizzling 31 on the front put her right smack dab in the middle of contention. Meanwhile, Jee Young Lee has been kind of hanging around, not making nearly as many birdies on Lorena's home course as her length and career birdie rate would lead you to expect.

If Stanford and her chase pack should play indifferently or badly later today, a trio of young guns are poised to take advantage. Sun Young Yoo shot her 3rd straight 70 to get within 4 shots of the lead--thanks mostly to a hole in 1 on the 13th that offset several closing mistakes. Brittany Lang returned to her sub-70 ways in a 69 marred only by a bogey on the long par-3 17th that brought her within 5 of the lead. In-Kyung Kim got to -5 for the tournament on the 7th hole, but parred her way out for a 70 that kept her even with Lang.

And let's still not count out some big names--from Cristie Kerr (69, -4, T8) to Paula Creamer (69, -2, T13), from Jeong Jang (71, -4, T8) to Lorena Ochoa (70, -2, T13)--who could get right back in this thing with a perfect final round. And if we're giving the big names credit for being able to go below 65, why not young guns like Tseng (-2, T13), Na Yeon Choi (72, -1, T21), Eun-Hee Ji (72, -1, T21), and Seon Hwa Lee (E, 23rd)?

Whether or not this turns into the free-for-all I envisioned after the 1st round, there'll still be plenty of drama on Sunday. Meena Lee (76, -2, T13) and Nicole Castrale (72, -4, T8) have left the door open for struggling Sophie Gustafson (73, +2, T25) and sinking Christina Kim (77, +5, T35) in the race for the last 2 2nd-half spots for the ADT Championship next week. But if Brittany Lang were to win (or, for that matter, fellow Junior Mint Teresa Lu, who's T8 at -4), or if Sun Young Yoo finishes strongly, 2 of them could lose their spots: if Lang wins and Yoo wins enough to also pass Kim and Gustafson on the season money list, they'll take the wild-card spots away from them, but if Yoo passes either Lee or Castrale on the 2nd-half money list, either Kim or Gustafson will just squeak in with the last wild card, provided Lang doesn't win.

While I would love to see Annika make a statement on Sunday, I'm hoping that Jee Young Lee will get over her final-round mental block and play the way she's capable of while in contention. She's so overdue for her 1st LPGA win as an LPGA member!

[Update 1 (12:45 am): LPGA.com doesn't share my enthusiasm for Jee Young! That's ok!]

[Update 2 (12:50 am): Neither does Golf Channel. I'm used to that by now.]

[Update 3 (12:55 am): Nice job by Bobbio at Average Golfer.]

[Update 4 (2:05 am): Randall Mell offers up a fittingly South Florida-centric preview of the ADT Championship. And here are the final-round pairings. I should note that Jane Park still has a chance for a wild-card spot if she can outplay her playing partner Sophie Gustafson by enough and move high enough up the leaderboard for it to make enough of a dollar difference....]

[Update 5 (9:19 am): Here's Hound Dog's recap!]