Thursday, March 29, 2012

The Best on the LPGA Without a Major: 2012 Kraft Nabisco Championship Edition

All right, it's time to update my predictions for who will break through in 2012 and snag their 1st career LPGA major. The numbers in parentheses following the players' names are for LPGA wins and international wins (but only from the other major tours: JLPGA, KLPGA, LET).

Most Likely to Break through at the KNC

1. Ai Miyazato (7/15):  She's playing great in 2012 and even after 2 missed cuts in majors last year and a history of frustration at the KNC, I'm still thinking she's due.


2. Na Yeon Choi (5/5): Last year, she suffered her 3rd-ever missed cut in a major at the USWO (to go with her MCs at the '07 USWO and '10 Wegmans LPGA Championship), slogged through her worst 2 non-MC major finishes right before that (T49 at the KNC and T43 at the Wegmans LPGA Championship). But she bounced back with a T7 at Carnoustie and hasn't looked back ever since.


3. Shanshan Feng (0/2): Yes, her best performances in LPGA majors (a T30 at last year's WBO, a T42 at last year's USWO, a T48 at the '09 USWO, a T50 and a T54 at the last two Wegmans LPGA Championships, and a T55 at last year's KNC) haven't been all that impressive. But she's a classic straight shooter who hits a lot of greens in regulation and hasn't missed the top 5 so far this year.


4. Angela Stanford (5/0): Her best chance to win a major to date was back in the 2003 U.S. Women's Open, but Hilary Lunke answered Stanford's 27-foot birdie with her own walkoff birdie to win the 18-hole playoff instead. Since then, Stanford's had 16 more top-25 finishes in majors, including 2 top 5s at the LPGA Championship (back when it was sponsored by McDonalds), a T3 at last year's KNC, and a 4th-place finish at last year's USWO. She proved she can win on a big stage in Singapore this year, but I'd be happier about her chances this week if she hadn't missed the cut right after her big playoff victory.


5. Amy Yang (0/4): She's riding a 7-major top-20 streak and is coming off a 4th-place finish at Carnoustie. I saw firsthand at the Wegmans LPGA Championship that she has a great game for majors, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her find her A-game this week. 

6. In-Kyung Kim (3/1): Talk about due: she hadn't finished worse than 12th in her last 6 majors until coming to Carnoustie, where she had her worst finish in her last 14 majors besides an exceptionally windy KNC in 2010.  Even with an uneven start to 2012, I have to rank someone with 11 top 20s in that stretch of majors, one who's had plenty of shots at the winner's circle, among the most likely to get there this week.


The Contenders


7. Caroline Hedwall (0/4): Despite her lack of experience in majors, she's got the talent to contend right off the bat.

8. Hee Kyung Seo (1/11): She turned a good rookie season very good at the Broadmoor, where she lost in a playoff to KLPGA rival and friend So Yeon Ryu (who's now an LPGA rookie and one of the favorites this week).  Seo gave herself a couple of chances to start her sophomore season on the LPGA in style, but couldn't quite close the deal Down Under.  Is this week her time?


9. Lexi Thompson (1/1): Sure, she hasn't yet followed up on her top 10 at the 2010 USWO, but cut her some slack, will ya?  She's another one with the talent to contend any time and a surprising amount of experience in majors for someone so young.

Quantum Leap Candidates

10. Hee Young Park (1/4): She's made the cut in 9 of her last 11 majors, with 4 top 15s in that stretch, including a T11 at the '09 WBO.  She's been wildly uneven this year, but that's The Rocket for ya.  If she can win the Titleholders, she can win a major!


11. Maria Hjorth (5/5): You know, she may not yet be quite back to being the kind of player again who averaged 2 top 10s in majors a year in 2007 and 2008--and I doubt she'll improve on that T2, 4th, 2nd run from the '07 WBO to the '08 LPGA Championship. But just 1 bad round at the Broadmoor interrupted a run in last year's majors that included a top 20 at the KNC, a top 10 at the Wegmans LPGA Championship, and a top 15 at Carnoustie. So even though she's had a slow start to 2012 by her standards, anyone who's won twice in the past couple of seasons is on my radar at Mission Hills.


12. Sun Young Yoo (1/0): She's made the cut in 13 of her last 15 majors, a fitting companion to her late bloom on the LPGA relative to most of her Tseng Dynasty-generation peers. With a T12 at the '09 KNC under her belt, and coming off a T7 at Carnoustie and a runner-up finish last week, this Angela Stanfordesque straight shooter should be on everyone's watch list.

13. Momoko Ueda (2/9): The WBO seems to be her best major and the Mizuno Classic her favorite LPGA event, but she's never missed the cut at Mission Hills and is capable of landing flocks of birdies and eagles seemingly at any time.


14. Brittany Lang (0/0): She's finished inside the top 40 in 10 of her last 16 majors (the only real blemishes being missed cuts at the '08 WBO and the '11 Wegmans LPGA Championship). More important, she finally improved on her T2 finish (with fellow then-amateur Morgan Pressel) in the 2005 USWO that Birdie Kim won with a walkoff slam dunk from the sand when she gutted out a runner-up finish at Carnoustie last year.  Although she hasn't played great yet in 2012, she's definitely back among the LPGA's best.


15. Michelle Wie (2/0): So far, her performance in majors as an LPGA member has been nowhere near her 7 close calls from 2003-2006, including 6 top 5s, 2 of them at Mission Hills.  And so far she's looked rusty at best in 2012.  But those Stanford finals are nothing to sneeze at.  I don't really see her contending so soon after finishing them, but she's still too good to leave off this list.


16. Azahara Munoz (0/1): Her favorite major appears to be the Wegmans LPGA Championship, but she hasn't missed the cut at any of them since joining the LPGA in 2010 and I've been impressed with how solid her start to her junior year on tour has been so far.  Keep an eye on her in majors this year!

17. Sandra Gal (1/0): Yeah, she never cracked the top 30 in a major in her 1st 11 tries, but she got a T15 at last year's KNC, so who knows whether she can turn a decent start to 2012 into a great one this week?


18. Mika Miyazato (0/1): She already has 6 top 15s to her credit in LPGA majors in her short professional career, including 3 top 10s in a row last year (a T7 at the KNC, a T8 at the Wegmans LPGA Championship, and a 5th-place finish at the USWO). Plus, she's already won a JLPGA major, getting revenge at the '10 Japan Women's Open for her final-round collapse in the '09 edition.  So never mind the fact that she recently followed up a missed cut on the JLPGA with another MC at the Kia.  I have confidence that she'll bounce right back!


Watch Lists


Most wins/longest careers without a major: Mi Hyun Kim (8), Hee-Won Han (6), Sophie Gustafson (5), Lorie Kane (4), Wendy Ward (4), Candie Kung (4)

Slumping stars: Song-Hee Kim, Seon Hwa Lee, Jee Young Lee, Christina Kim, Vicky Hurst

Rising stars: Beatriz Recari, Mina Harigae, Jennifer Song, Jessica Korda

Possible non-LPGA winners: Ji-Hee Lee, Yukari Baba, Ha-Neul Kim, Ariya Jutanugarn [a]

Monday, March 26, 2012

Kraft Nabisco Championship Preview & Pairings

After a very exciting first five tournaments, the LPGA will be staging its first Major Championship this week. Here are some details:

Course: Mission Hills Country Club, Dinah Shore Tournament Course
Location: Rancho Mirage, California
Defending Champion: Stacy Lewis
Winning Score: 66-69-71-69=275 (-13)

Final Field: 116 players
Par: 72
Yardage: 6702 Yards
Purse: $ 2.0 Million

The Kraft Nabisco Championship had the strongest field of any tournament in 2011. My strength of field rating of 73%, makes it the strongest tournament so far this year. Since it is a major championship, all player of the year points earned will be doubled.

There will be 20 hours of live television coverage. Here is the schedule:

Mar 29 12:00-3:00 PM ET GC
Mar 29 6:30-9:30 PM ET GC
Mar 30 12:00-3:00 PM ET GC
Mar 30 6:30-9:30 PM ET GC
Mar 31 4:30-8:30 PM ET GC
Apr 01 4:30-8:30 PM ET GC

Rolex Ranking Mover of the week:
Jiyai Shin moves from #8 to #6, Sun Young Yoo moves from #45 to #37. Song-Hee Kim, who began last season ranked #9 in the world, has now dropped to #42.

Titleholders Update:
Sun Young Yoo, Jodi Ewart, and Se Ri Pak become the latest to qualify.

Hard to believe stat of the week:
Ai Miyazato's 69.06 scoring average leads the LPGA so far this year. Yani Tseng's 69.15 ranks second. Yani has 3 victories, Ai has none.

Sybase Matchplay Championship Update:
The four highest ranked players on the 2012 money list, that haven't already qualified, will be added to the Sybase field. With 3 more tournaments to play, here are the leading contenders for those four spots:
1- Jenny Shin - $188,834
2- So Yeon Ryu - $174,334
3- Jessica Korda - $165,000
4- Caroline Hedwall - $122,143
5- Julieta Granada - $108,967
6- Mina Harigae - $72,711
7- Amanda Blumenherst - $66,260
8- Jodi Ewart - $65,664

In desperate need of help:
After the first five events of the season, the following four golfers have to be the most disappointing on tour.
1- Song-Hee Kim - 77.11 per round average.
2- Christina Kim - 75.71
3- Michelle Wie - 75.38
4- Tiffany Joh - 75.38

Other Tidbits:
Maria Hjorth missed the Kia Classic cut this past weekend; she had made 27 consecutive cuts. Mika Miyazato also missed the cut after making her last 18.

Shanshan Feng has played 12 rounds of golf on the LPGA this year. She has yet to shoot a round over par. She has finished in the top five in all three events she has played in.

Tony Jesselli's 2012 Player of the Year update:
1-Yani Tseng - 92.96 points
2-Ai Miyazato - 45.08
3-Jiyai Shin - 35.92
4-Shanshan Feng - 34.17
5-Caroline Hedwall - 29.25
6-Angela Stanford - 27.46
7-Jenny Shin - 27.11
8-Na Yeon Choi - 26.21
9-So Yeon Ryu - 26.10
10-Stacy Lewis - 25.34

Update: Here are Thursday's and Friday's Pairings.






Kia Classic Saturday and Sunday: Ya Ni Tseng Wins Going Away

Just like Tiger's win at Arnie's place has everyone wondering about the Masters, Ya Ni Tseng's demolition of La Costa and obliteration of the field at the Kia Classic this past weekend has everyone anticipating her 6th major victory this week at the Kraft Nabisco Championship.  And why not?  Despite being bothered by tendinitis in her right elbow all season, she's already won a shootout, won from behind, and now won by a mile, this time on a course whose tiny greens seemed to favor the LPGA's precision players. 

Even though Tseng missed a bunch of short birdie putts on moving day, she didn't make a bogey all weekend until a meaningless 3-putt on the final hole.  Contrast that with the #2 player on tour, Ai Miyazato, who snagged 5th place with 3 rounds under par and none over par, but who finished 10 shots behind Tseng.  Sure, Miyazato still has the lowest scoring average in 2012, but for how long?  A huge lead on Tseng evaporated to less than a tenth of a stroke at the Kia, thanks to 13 bogeys at La Costa, including 4 in a 9-hole stretch that erased her 4 birdies in a row to start the weekend, which relegated her to a small blip in the world #1's rear-view mirror.  And how about the final-round queen, Ji-Yai Shin, who's next on the money list after her T3 finish?  Well, she made 9 bogeys over the weekend and 6 on Sunday, this despite driving the ball the best of anyone all week, with great accuracy and longer than usual distance for her.  And sure, Sun Young Yoo hung in there despite making 5 bogeys in her final round, snagging just enough birdies to hold onto a solo 2nd-place finish, and Shanshan Feng shot a fine Sunday 67 to move into T3, but basically what they and everyone else were able to do for brief stretches, Tseng was able to do over the course of 72 holes.

So while it's great to see players like Caroline Hedwall, Mina Harigae, Chella Choi, and Jodi Ewart get off to solid starts in 2012, and flashes of brilliance from Hee Kyung Seo, So Yeon Ryu, Jessica Korda, and Jenny Shin, the big question of the year so far is:  where are the rest of Tseng's challengers?  No need to name names--they and we know who they are.  Maybe it'll take the pressure of performing in a major to bring Tseng within striking distance of them.  Maybe....

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Kia Classic Thursday and Friday: Tseng Weathers Pak Attack, Leads by 2

My apologies to the ladies of the LPGA for not blogging their exploits lately.  In fact, I still haven't even watched last Sunday's showdown between Ya Ni Tseng, Ai Miyazato, and Na Yeon Choi.  It's not like I don't know that Ya Ni stormed back on the back 9 to win, although I did try to avoid finding out the results for as long as possible in hopes I'd find time to watch the RR Donnelley's final round....

That resilience Tseng has been showing lately--her ability to slip into "world #1 gear" just when she needs it, even if she was otherwise playing pretty average golf; her ability to hold off top-notch challengers in clutch situations, no matter how well they're playing--was on display the 1st 2 days of the Kia Classic, as well.  So what if Hall of Famer Se Ri Pak dropped a 66 on the field yesterday morning, opening with 6 birdies in her 1st 8 holes?  So what if Tseng stumbled late on the back with a couple of bogeys in a row to fall one behind Pak?  All Ya Ni did was play her last 10 holes bogey-free and make 3 birdies along the way to open up a 2-shot lead on Pak and a 4-shot lead on Ji-Yai Shin, Caroline Hedwall, Alison Walshe (who matched Pak's 66 yesterday!), and Jodi Ewart....

Me, I'm glad to see Ai Miyazato in the top 10, but I'd love to see her go low this weekend and challenge Tseng for the 3rd time this year.  It's nice to see Lexi Thompson hanging in there at E on a course I didn't think would suit her game at all.  But what the heck is up with Stacy Lewis (+1), Na Yeon Choi (+2), Cristie Kerr (+2), Paula Creamer (+3), Morgan Pressel (+3), Anna Nordqvist (+4), In-Kyung Kim (+5), and So Yeon Ryu (+5)?  I would have thought they'd be eating up La Costa!  At least they made the cut, unlike my hometown hero Moira Dunn and a bunch of golfers who I had hoped were starting to struggle through some hard times on the course, from Jee Young Lee to Jane Park to Tiffany Joh to Michelle Wie to Pernilla Lindberg to Mariajo Uribe.  And what happened to Mika Miyazato and Jennifer Song this week?  Ouch!

Can't guarantee how soon I'll find the time to post again!  Sorry!

[Update 1 (7:04 am):  Here's a great long post that recaps the late-2011 and early-2012 heartbreaks for Korean golfers on the LET and LPGA from Happy Fan!]

[Update 2 (7:06 am):  How cool is it that Hannah Yun is paired with Na Yeon Choi today?!]

Monday, March 19, 2012

Kia Classic Preview

At the risk of sounding repetitious, I want to give Yani Tseng a big congratulations for her victory at the RR Donnelly Founders Cup. For most of the weekend it didn't even seem that Yani was playing up to her usual level of golf. The fact that she was still able to win, shows us how great a player she has become.

The tour moves to California this week for the playing of the Kia Classic. The last two ladies to emerge victorious in this event were first time winners. In 2010, Hee Kyeong Seo shocked us all by winning as a non LPGA winner. Last year Sandra Gal made this event her maiden victory.

Here are some details:

Course: La Costa Resort and Spa
Location: Carlsbad, California
Defending Champion: Sandra Gal
Winning Score: 67-68-70 71 +276 (-16)

Final Field: 144 players
Par 72
Yardage: Info not currently available
Purse $ 1.7 Million

This will be the strongest field of the year so far. My strength of field is 68%.
Every LPGA member ranked in the top 45 of the Rolex Rankings will be in attendance.
The only notable LPGA member missing from the field is Momoko Ueda. Returning to the field this week is Jessica Korda, who was a winner in her only start this year.
Mellissa Reid and Ha Neul Kim, have been granted sponsor exemptions.

Here is the television schedule:
March 22 6:30-9:00 PM ET GC
March 23 6:30-9:00 PM ET GC
March 24 6:30-9:00 PM ET GC
March 25 7:00-9:00 PM ET GC

Rolex Movers of the Week:
Ai Miyazato moves from #9 to #7. Caroline Hedwall moves from #32 to #24.

Titleholders Update:
So Yeon Ryu, Hee Young Park, and Caroline Hedwall become the latest to qualify.

Hard to Believe stat of the week:
You would think it impossible to have 16 birdies and only 7 bogeys in a 72 hole tournament and finish 8 over par. That is exactly what Ryann O'Toole did this past weekend. Unfortunately for her she also had 3 double bogeys, and 3 triple bogeys on her scorecard.

Other Tidbits:

Paula Creamer moves to #8 on the career money list, as she passed Beth Daniel.
Here is a look at the career top 10 of all time:

1 Annika Sorenstam $22,573,192.00
2 Karrie Webb $16,587,476.75
3 Lorena Ochoa $14,863,331.00
4 Cristie Kerr $13,607,874.75
5 Juli Inkster $13,394,109.98
6 Se Ri Pak $11,437,047.50
7 Meg Mallon $9,044,059.00
8 Paula Creamer $8,802,101.00
9 Beth Daniel $8,786,562.80
10 Laura Davies $8,737,720.50
Paula, only 25 years old, is the only player on the list under 30.

Sophomore Jinx?
Tiffany Joh who had an excellent rookie season in 2011 when she recorded a per round average of 72.75, has seen that figure balloon to 74.78 this year. Look for her to snap out of it sooner rather than later.

Consistently mediocre; Suzann Pettersen has been just that with her finishes resulting in 22nd, 21st, 25th, and 26th place this year.

Momoko Ueda withdrew after two rounds this past weekend. She was in the top 20 at the time with a 4 under par score. She has now pulled out of the Kia Classic.

Brittany Lincicome missed the cut this past weekend. She had made an LPGA leading 44 consecutive cuts. Karrie Webb now has the longest streak with 28.

Yani Tseng is the only player to finish in the top ten in all four tournaments this year. Ai Miyazato has finished in the top 10 in all three that she has played in. Honorable mention should go to Caroline Hedwall, who has not finished outside the top 12 this year.