Saturday, January 18, 2014

The Best on the LPGA: 3-to-6-Time Winners, January 2014 Edition

The last time I tried to predict who was most likely to win among the LPGA's 3-to-6-time winners was last July.  As part of my 2014 preview series, here are my best guesses for the new season!

[Note: The numbers in parentheses following each player's name represent LPGA wins and majors.]

Most Likely to Win in 2014

1. Shanshan Feng (3/1):  With 2 wins in her last 4 LPGA starts of 2013 and a 5-event (and counting) streak inside the top 11, she's 1 of the hottest golfers on the planet, not to mention the only dual LPGA-JLPGA member in 2014.  She's decided to start 2014 in Thailand, but I don't think that'll put a damper on her chances for 2014, where I expect her to contend for all end-of-season honors on the LPGA if she can keep her starts on the JLPGA to a minimum.  She's ranked #3 in her class and #6 in her generation and rising fast in both lists, but catching Na Yeon Choi and Ya Ni Tseng is one tall order.  If anyone can do it, she can!
2. Lexi Thompson (3/0):  She's won twice in her last 5 LPGA starts and has finished inside the top 22 in 10 of her last 12 starts, so she's almost as hot as Feng.  And she's ready to strike while the iron is hot, having signed up for the LPGA's 1st 4 events.  If #1 in their Class of 2012 So Yeon Ryu doesn't get it in gear, Lexi could blow by her in 2014 (and a lot of other people)!
3. Beatriz Recari (3/0):  As great as she was in the 1st half of 2013, the 2nd half was a little bit of a letdown, as she started missing cuts (3 times), finishing outside the top 30 (twice more), and even having to withdraw from Lorena's event.  And yet she still got a win, 4 other top 10s, and 5 other top 20s in that very same run.  The key for her was a red-hot putter and a killer instinct down the stretch.  If she can maintain both in 2014, she's going to have an even better season than last one.  As the #1 golfer in her LPGA rookie class and #8 in her generation, it'll be interesting to see which ranking is a better indicator of where she's headed on tour.  We'll get some early clues, as it should come as a surprise to no one that she'll be playing all 4 of the LPGA's season-opening events.

The Contenders

4. In-Kyung Kim (3/0):  She was hottest in the middle of the 2013 season, when she racked up 7 top-6 finishes in a 14-event run.  But she couldn't find win #4, as Inbee Park continued to blow by her in the Class of 2007 rankings and Shanshan Feng made up a lot of ground on her in the Tseng Dynasty rankings.  All she needs to do, though, is put it all together in a given week.  Each of her performance stats last year were among the very best on tour and I see no reason for that to change in 2014.  The only reason she's not ranked with the top 3 in this group is that they're all on great runs while she's trying to start one.  The only thing is, she's not entered in any of the 1st 4 LPGA events of 2014.  I hope she's not hurt!
5. Angela Stanford (5/0):  She was considering a North-America-only schedule in 2013, but started playing great golf, with an early bronze at the Founders Cup and another top 5 at Kingsmill, so she did everything but the fall Asian swing in the 2nd half of the season and responded with a 9-event run inside the top 21 to close out her season, highlighted by a T4 at the U.S. Women's Open, a T6 at the Evian Championship, and a near-win at the Manulife.  So she's going all in for the start of 2014, with starts in the Bahamas, Thailand, and Singapore.

The Next Best

6. Catriona Matthew (4/1):  She had a great 1st 3/4 of 2013 and hung on for a bunch of top 30s at the end of the year when she didn't have her A-game.  She's skipping the Bahamas and the LET's opening New Zealand and Australia events but playing the next 3 LPGA events over in the eastern hemisphere.  Don't be surprised if she's ready to win in February!
7. Brittany Lincicome (5/1):  I've said it before and I'll say it again:  I'm still waiting for her to go on a real run and put herself in contention over several events in a row.  At this point in her career, I'm starting to seriously doubt whether she has the desire, the temperament, and the work ethic to do any of that.  In 2013, she had 3 top 20s in the 1st half of the season and 3 top 10s in its 2nd half.  She could do that sleepwalking through 2014.  When will she wake up?

Quantum Leap Candidates

8. Seon Hwa Lee (4/0):  After a terrible 2013, she needed to go to Q-School, but she showed she still has it with a 6th-place finish.  So it's clean slate time for 2014.  Wonder what she'll fill it with?  Her only early-season start is in the Bahamas next week.
9. Candie Kung (4/0):  I wonder if she's gotten to the point in her 13th season on tour when the most we can expect from her is top 30s and the occasional better finish.  The culprit in 2013 was clearly her putting.  If she can get that back on track, we'll see her do better than break the $6M mark in career winnings on the LPGA.  But contend?  Let's hope!  She's playing in the 1st 4 LPGA events of 2014, so we'll find out soon.
10. Hee-Won Han (6/0):  Gotta ask the same question about this 14th-year LPGAer.  She's not signed up for any of the LPGA's 1st 4 events, either.
11. Maria Hjorth (5/0):  She kept her LPGA card only because of Category 5 (multiple wins between 2010 and 2013) on the 2014 LPGA Priority Status List, so let's see if she can take advantage of that and catch or pass her fellow '98er Sophie Gustafson (the 2 of them have been neck and neck their entire careers).  Her best finish of 2013 (T30) was her last one, so let's see what she's got in the Bahamas.

On the Bottom, Looking Up

12. Pat Hurst (6/1):  She used up her Category 14 exemption for being in the top 40 on the career money list, so still has a chance to become a $7M woman on the LPGA.
13. Lorie Kane (4/0):  At #154 on the priority status list she should get plenty of starts this season, which is good, because she's racing Hurst to the $7M mark in career winnings.

On the Outside, Looking In

14. Sophie Gustafson (5/0):  At #209 on the priority status list, she's in Category 18-land for retired players.  Never fear, Gustafson fans:  you can find her on the LET in 2014!
15. Wendy Ward (4/0):  She got a sponsor's exemption into the Pure Silk Bahamas LPGA Classic and at #210 on the priority status list she probably won't get too many others.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Recommended Reading: 4s Wild at LPGA.com

In case you haven't been checking out LPGA.com during this countdown period to the start of the new season in the Bahamas next Thursday, here are their twenty four-teen preview stories:

4 Rookies to Watch
4 on the Rise
4 Poised for Breakthrough Victory
4 International Crown Teams to Be Determined

Never pegged the media staff for 4chan fans!

The Best on the LPGA: 7-to-9-Time Winners, January 2014 Edition

Keeping my 2014 preview series going, it's time to update my July 2013 ranking of the active LPGAers with 7 to 9 wins on tour, arranged as usual by their likelihood of winning in this coming season.  The race to 10 wins is heating up, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if every active player on this list graduated from it by the end of 2014.

[Note:  the numbers in parentheses indicate total LPGA wins and majors, respectively.]

Most Likely to Win in 2014

1. Stacy Lewis (8/2):  The LPGA's $6M Woman is also among its very hottest players.  She finished no worse than T8 in 11 of her last 13 starts in 2013, with 3 runner-up finishes in that stretch (and another on the LET to close out the season).  Almost immediately after I predicted that her 3rd win of the season wasn't far away in my last ranking, she beat out Suzann Pettersen, Na Yeon Choi, and others to win the Women's British Open at St. Andrews.  The 2013 Vare Trophy winner has decided to strike while the iron is hot and start 2014 in the Bahamas.  At the rate she's going, she could become to 1st player in this group to join the double-digit winners on the LPGA!
2. Inbee Park (9/4):  Yes, she hit the wall, wins-wise, soon after my last ranking, but closed 2013 with 3 top 5s in her last 5 starts to hold off a charging Suzann Pettersen for Player of the Year.  I don't see any reason for her not to pick right up where she left off when she starts the 2014 season in Thailand.  As long as she keeps her putter in history-making mode (she's averaged under 1.73 putts per green in regulation each of the last 3 seasons), the wins are going to keep piling up for the world #1.

The Contender

3. Na Yeon Choi (7/1):  Her 5-year streak of million-dollar seasons ended in 2013, as did her 4-year streak of winning at least once per season, so I'm thinking she has extra motivation to make 2014 a special year.  Her 3 worse finishes of 2013 came after the Manulife, but she still finished T2 at the Women's British Open and 5th in China, so it's not like she was shut out of contention during last season's 2nd half.  That said, I'm sure she's happy it's a new year.  And she's clearly eager to get it started in the Bahamas next week.

The Next Best

4. Paula Creamer (9/1):  Her 1st win since the 2010 U.S. Women's Open will come during 2014.  I guarantee it.  How can I be so sure?  She needs to get her fiance a great wedding present!  Seriously, although she stumbled down 2013's home stretch after almost breaking through in Ohio, she's the best of anyone who joined the LPGA since 2005 at snagging top 20s and she has a proven track record of putting herself in contention in about 1 out of every 5 starts.  Clearly, she can't wait for the 2014 season to start, as she's scheduled to play in the Bahamas, Australia, and Thailand!
5. Ai Miyazato (9/0):  I maintain Ai-sama was just a little off in 2013.  She was good at getting top 30s, fine at getting top 20s, but had trouble hanging with the best players on tour because her ball-striking was off in the 1st half of the season and her putter went a little cold by her standards in the 2nd half.  I think she was playing sick or hurt during the fall Asian swing, as well, as she closed with 4 straight finishes outside the top 20, with a WD after 3 rounds in the CME Group Titleholders.  So I was a little surprised to see her name in the field list for the Bahamas.  I thought she might take a little more of a break and start 2014 in Thailand.  But she is skipping the Australian swing, at least.  I'm hoping she starts the new season with a bang!  She has a history of strong starts.

Over and Out

6. Helen Alfredsson (7/1):  She's dropped to #200 on the 2014 LPGA Priority Status List, down in Category 18, after all the retired players who have 8 or more LPGA wins in the last 20 years.  So this is the last time she'll appear in this ranking.  Congratulations on a fabulous career, Helen!

Thursday, January 16, 2014

The Best on the LPGA: Double-Digit Winners, January 2014 Edition

As part of my 2014 preview series, I'm updating my July 2013 ranking of the active golfers with 10 or more LPGA victories, arranged by their likelihood of winning this coming season.  The biggest change, of course, is Ji-Yai Shin's shocking decision to give up her LPGA membership for 2014, but Suzann Pettersen's accelerating rise and Ya Ni Tseng's continued slide are also big developments in the last 6 months.

[Note:  the numbers in parentheses indicate total LPGA wins and majors, respectively.]

Most Likely to Win in 2014

1. Suzann Pettersen (14/2):  I think 2014 will be Suzann's year.  She's come so close to so many end-of-season awards, not to mention to the #1 position in the Rolex Rankings, in recent years, that's she's both due and hot.  How hot?  She's coming off a run at the end of 2013 in which she finished inside the top 7 in 11 of her last 13 starts and notched 3 of last season's 4 victories.  This is the longest hot streak of her career and I don't see any signs of it ending.  She's 11 points away from qualifying for the LPGA Hall of Fame.  I wouldn't be surprised to see her cut that number in half by the end of 2014.  Or win in the Bahamas next week!

The Contenders

2. Karrie Webb (39/7):  I'd say it's a matter of when, not if, win #40 on the LPGA will come for this Hall of Famer.  She often plays well at the very start of the year, by the way, so don't be surprised if she's in the hunt at the ISPS Handa Women's Australian Open, an event she's won 4 times, the last time in 2008.  Consider that during her 1st 11 seasons on the LPGA, she was a consistent threat for the money-list title (which she took 3 times), Player of the Year award (twice), and Vare Trophy (3 times, the lowest scoring average of the 3 coming in 1999, at 69.43).  In her near-20-year-long LPGA career, she's never finished outside the top 30 on the money list, only once had a scoring average above 72, only twice failed to make the top 20 on the money list (once when her scoring average rose above 71.50 for only the 3rd time in her career), and only 4 times failed to enter the winner's circle (in 2 of those seasons, her best finish was 2nd; in 2012, it was 3rd; for the other, it was 4th).  I see no reason that 2014 can't be as good or even better than 2013 for her.  If it's among her best, she has a chance to break the $20M barrier in career LPGA winnings this year! [Update 1 (2/18/14, 9:22 am):  Women's Australian Open?  Check!]
3. Cristie Kerr (16/2):  The last few years have seen historical streaks end for her.  2011 was her 1st season without a win since 2003.  Her run of consecutive million-dollar-seasons ended at 8 in 2012.  She failed to break the $1M barrier in 2013, as well, but did follow up her 2012 win at the Lorena Ochoa Invitational with a win at Kingsmill and broke the $15M barrier in career LPGA winnings.  Let's see if motherhood helps her to extend her winning streak to 3 straight seasons and board the million-dollar train again.

Quantum Leap Candidates

4. Ya Ni Tseng (15/5):  For a brief time in her career, she was an Annika/Lorena-style straight-up bomber, but lately she's been much more of a Michelle Wie-style wild bomber.  Still, problems with the driver can sometimes clear up quickly, when a new club or swing thought suddenly clicks.  So as bad as things have been looking for her lately, I'm thinking a win is still possible for her in 2014.  If she can get things going, she also has a chance to break the $10M barrier in career LPGA winnings this year.  And she's still only 4 points away from entering the LPGA Hall of Fame (once she completes 10 seasons on tour, that is).
5. Se Ri Pak (25/5):  The Hall of Famer finished 2013 with 3 top 10s in her last 4 starts, but sat out the CME Group Titleholders, raising fears about the shoulder injury that's been plaguing her the last few seasons.  It's gotten to the point that it's hard to remember that from 1998-2004, she was one of the 3 best players in the world of women's golf, racking up 22 golds, 14 silvers, 6 bronzes, and 83 top 10s in all.  She won the Vare Trophy in 2003 with a 70.03 scoring average, but not in 2002 with a 69.85 one or in 2001 with a 69.69 (thanks, Annika!).  She was a 4-time silver medalist on the money list and 2-time bronze medalist during this stretch.  She hasn't been nearly that dominant since then, but she won her 5th major in dramatic fashion at the 2006 LPGA Championship, became a 5-time winner of the Farr (now Marathon) in 2007, the year she was inducted into the Hall of Fame, and got her 25th career win at the Bell Micro in 2010.  The question for 2014 is not just whether she can break through again, but how serious her shoulder injury really is and how much longer it will permit her to play on the LPGA.  She's signed up to play in the Bahamas, so we'll get an early look at the shape of her game and shoulder!

On the Bottom, Looking Up

6. Juli Inkster (31/7):  Her best event in 2013, a top-15 finish, was in NW Arkansas, but her performance stats remained fairly solid and she'll be able to play as many events as she wants to in 2014 from #70 on the priority status list.  If she has a good year, she can break the $14M barrier in career LPGA winnings.  It all starts for her in the Bahamas.
7. Laura Davies (20/4):  She gained a little distance in 2013, but continued her 4-season trend of bad putting.  Until she gets the flat stick working, those last 2 Hall of Fame points she needs are looking further and further out of reach.  She should get plenty of starts from #153 on the priority status list, so let's see what she does with them.

On the Outside, Looking In

8. Ji-Yai Shin (11/2):  Even though she's left the LPGA for 2014, she remains the 2nd-ranked player in my career evaluation system.  She'll need to win an LPGA event she happens to enter for her 2014 results to count toward her career totals.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Yueer Cindy Feng Wins on SunCoast Series

Just as I suspected, the field was much stronger for this week's SunCoast Series tournament at MetroWest than for last week's Disney event.  And we got a very intriguing winner out of the mix!

LPGA Class of 2014er Yueer Cindy Feng went 71-68-70 to hold off '13er Haley Millsap by 4 shots and last week's winner and '12er Sandra Changkija and Karlin Beck (also in the Class of '12, though without LPGA membership this season) by 6.  They were the only golfers under par for the week, as Maria Hjorth, Sue Kim, and Ginger Howard finished at E and Jenny Suh fell back to +6, Ryann O'Toole to +7, Perrine Delacour to +9, Marina Alex to +12, Pernilla Lindberg to +14, and Amelia Lewis to +15.

This is a big win for Feng, who's moved up to #160 on the 2014 LPGA Priority Status List now that Ji-Yai Shin has dropped her LPGA membership to focus exclusively on the JLPGA.  Feng's not listed among the alternates for the Pure Silk Bahamas LPGA Classic, so I doubt she'll try to Monday qualify, but the fact that she could beat handily 7 players who are in the field (Alex, Changkija, Delacour, Hjorth, Kim, Lindberg, O'Toole) bodes well for her once she does get into an LPGA event.  She's going to need to take advantage of every early start, as the LPGA reshuffles its priority status list after the 10th event of the year.  If she wants to be a factor in the Rookie of the Year race, she needs to move to the top of that list.