Tuesday, December 23, 2008

The Best of the Young Guns: Ranking the Rookies

Now that the 2008 season is behind us, we can begin to get a sense of who among the LPGA's rookies is most likely to challenge Ya Ni Tseng and Na Yeon Choi for dominance in their class--and on tour--in 2009. Next step: figuring out who among the Young Guns--the rookie classes of 2006 through 2008--have had the best careers so far.

Simply the Best
1. Ya Ni Tseng. Despite playing the entire season with an injured upper right arm, she still ended up #4 in the entire LPGA in my final ranking--and I thought seriously about making her #2. When Annika Sorenstam, Lorena Ochoa, and Paula Creamer are all naming her as one of the best in the world, the rest of us should take the hint. Maybe next year at the Wegmans the Full Metal Archivist won't mistake her for Ai Miyazato! (In my wife's defense, Tseng was riding in a cart about 50 feet away from us and we only saw her profile....)
2. Na Yeon Choi. Definitely had a Rookie of the Year quality season--and as a non-exempt player, to boot. Only problem: it happened the same year as Tseng's. That's why she's #9 on the LPGA and #2 here.

The Contenders
3. Momoko Ueda. Only had a so-so year on the LPGA in a mere 19 starts; nothing really stands out, either stats-wise or results-wise. But that was still good enough for a #28 position in my Best of the LPGA ranking. Not as good as her #6 ranking on the JLPGA, but still not bad. How much will she play on the LPGA in 2009? Hopefully her friendship with Tseng and double the number of Japanese players on tour in '09 than '08 will mean more LPGA starts for her next season than this one. Only time--and how good a start she gets off to--will tell.
4. Hee Young Park. Hound Dog ranks her #3 on tour in total driving; she's also #4 in her class in scoring average and #3 in birdie rate. If she can improve her approach shots and putting, 2009 will be a breakout year for her. Certainly I expect her to do better next season than this season's #42 in my Best of the LPGA ranking.
5. Shanshan Feng. Hound Dog ranks her in the top 10 on tour in total driving, despite a horrific start this season where she missed 9 of her 1st 10 cuts and withdrew from the very next tournament. In fact, she bounced back so well she ended up #45 in my Best of the LPGA ranking--the last of the rookies to make my top 51. Anyone who qualifies for the ADT Championship in their rookie year is worth a second look, so watch for her in '09.
6. Louise Friberg. She blitzed the field on a Sunday this March in Mexico for her 1st win--and not only the 1st of her class, but first by a rookie since Seon Hwa Lee and Morgan Pressel did it for the Class of '06. She struggled a bit the rest of the season, but Hound Dog gets her prospects for 2009 just about right, in my book: the key is improving her approach shots and making more birdie putts.
7. Amy Yang. Won twice on the LET and finished 4th in their New Star money list in 2008. With her 2nd-place finish at Q-School, she's poised to become one of the top players on the LPGA in 2009. Can't wait to read the update to her bio on Seoul Sisters.com.

Quantum Leap Candidates
8. Sandra Gal. Has proven she can make cuts on tour; now can she start finishing as high as her impressive all-around stats suggest she should?
9. Anja Monke. 2 late-season LET wins vaulted her to #5 on their money list in '08. Can she keep her momentum going in '09? After a T15 finish at LPGA's Q-School where she bounced back from an opening-round 75, why not?
10. Anna Rawson. A smooth, solid T12 at Q-School--with all 5 rounds under par--ensured her full-time status on the LPGA in '09. If she can capitalize on her ability to hit greens and putt just a little bit better next season, she won't be going back to Q-School.
11. Carolina Llano. Successfully improved her status at Q-School with an impressive T10 finish. I have a good feeling for her in '09.
12. Anna Grzebien. Was her 3rd-place finish at Q-School--capped off with a sizzling final-round 65--a harbinger of better things to come? For her sake, let's hope so. For some reason, I have less confidence in her than in Llano--maybe it's that missed-cut rate?
13. Ashleigh Simon. A great 68 in the final round of Q-School vaulted her to T17 and gave her a shot at fulfilling the promise so many have seen in her. The jury's still out in my book, to mix metaphors.
14. Leah Wigger. Snuck into Category 11 status with a clutch performance in a Q-School playoff that probably shouldn't have happened. Can she take advantage in '09? Let's see.

On the Bottom, Looking Up (low priority status in '09)
15. Eunjung Yi. Had the best LPGA stats of this group, but a final-round 74 at Q-School dropped her to T44, ensuring that she wouldn't improve on her (high) Category 15 status. Hound Dog ranks her right next to Paula Creamer in total driving, so if she can improve on her approach shots and putting, watch out for her in '09. Check out her Seoul Sisters.com profile for a career overview.
16. Jimin Jeong. Had the 2nd-best LPGA stats of this group, but failed to improve upon her Category 15 status at Q-School, badly missing the 72-hole cut there. Check out her Seoul Sisters.com profile for a career overview.
17. Taylor Leon. A T40 at Q-School failed to improve her Category 15 status for '09. Will need to make the most of her starts next season.
18. Sarah Kemp. Couldn't improve on her Category 15 standing at Q-School, despite a nice comeback from a 2nd-round 77 that brought her all the way up to T25. Will have to make the most of her starts in '09.

On the Outside, Looking In (Futures Tour or worse in '09)
19. Hannah Jun. The medalist at the Futures Tour Q-School couldn't improve on her status at the LPGA's, finishing T54. Check out her Seoul Sisters.com profile for a career overview--this one's a survivor, literally.
20. Onnarin Sattayabanphot. Only made a couple of cuts on the LPGA, but missed the key one--the 72-hole cut at Q-School--by 2 shots. She's Futures Tour-bound in 2009, looking to improve on her #34 standing there (in only 5 starts) this season.
21. Liz Janangelo. Between her T21 at the Futures Tour Q-School and T60 at the LPGA's Q-School, she'll be a FT fixture in '09.
22. Chris Brady. Earned herself a return ticket to the Futures Tour with her T60 finish at the LPGA's Q-School. It's a good thing she did it that way, as she couldn't crack the top 100 in 12 events there this season.
23. Nicole Hage. Only made a couple of cuts on the LPGA in '08, but got herself Category 20 status at Q-School, so I assume she'll be trying to improve upon her #57 standing from this season on the Futures Tour next one.
24. Amie Cochran. Her only made cut on the LPGA was a top 20, but as she didn't play on the Futures Tour or enter their Q-School, much less the LPGA's, in 2008, she may have called her professional golf career quits. That would be too bad--for her and the LPGA--as Beth Ann Baldry's profile of her from last September shows. [Update: Baldry reports that she got married changed her name. She's now Amie Hartje. Having lost 4 family members in 2008, she wasn't ready for Q-School and missed the 72-hole cut badly.]
25. Violeta Retamoza. Barely avoided an 0-for-20 run on the LPGA in '08, but as she did just as badly in both the LPGA's and Futures Tour's Q-Schools, she may be headed for the LET's in January to seek some kind of professional affiliation in 2009. [Update (1/8/09, 2:35 am): Apparently her playing the Futures Tour Q-School was just an pre-LPGA Q-School attempted confidence boost. Lisa Mickey lists her among the players to watch on the '09 FT.]
26. Sarah Oh. Didn't make a cut on the LPGA in '08 but finished T40 at Q-School; depending on how the LPGA resolves its Q-School playoff problem, she may have Category 20 status in 2009, so I assume she'll be focusing on the Futures Tour. Check out her Seoul Sisters.com profile for a career overview.
27. Emma Cabrera-Bello. Didn't make a cut on the LPGA, but finished 42nd on the LET's money list, so she'll be back there next season.
28. Sofie Andersson. Didn't get into a single event in 2008. Badly missed the 72-hole cut at Q-School. Should have some Futures Tour status next season, as she finished 59th on their money list in '08.
29. Hwanhee Lee. Didn't make a cut on the LPGA and missed the 72-hole cut at the LPGA's Q-School by 4 shots. Her future is murky--she only played 6 Futures Tour events this season, couldn't crack the top 100 on the money list, and didn't enter their Q-School--so I guess she has to choose between the LET's and KLPGA's Q-Schools if she wants a professional affiliation in '09. Check out her Seoul Sisters.com profile for a career overview. [Update (1/8/09, 1:11 am): Uh oh, she's listed as a WD from the LET's Q-School.]
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff. Didn't get into a single event in 2008. Missed the 72-hole cut at 2008 Q-School by 1 shot. Don't know what her future as a professional holds. Check her profile at Seoul Sisters.com for updates.

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the 2008 ranking.

2008 LPGA Money List (rank), stroke average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone played this season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, and how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future.

1. Ya Ni Tseng, $1.75M (#3), 70.77 (#4), 3.96 (#1), 68.3% (#7)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $1.10M (#11), 71.10 (#8), 3.58 (#8), 68.5% (#6)
3. Hee Young Park, $474.7K (#34), 71.78 (#27), 3.43 (#15), 65.7% (#43)
4. Shanshan Feng, $472.8K (#35), 72.45 (#57), 3.17 (#49), 67.2% (#20)
5. Momoko Ueda, $413.6K (#45), 71.74 (#23), 3.17 (#70), 63.6% (#73)
6. Louise Friberg, $395.1K (#48), 72.49 (#59), 2.93 (#59), 65.1% (#54)
7. Sandra Gal, $181.2K (#68), 72.03 (#40), 3.13 (#54), 67.2% (#21)
8. Eunjung Yi, $95.2K (#104), 72.57 (#61), 3.19 (#136), 66.1% (#37)
9. Carolina Llano, $88.0K (#108), 73.69 (#128), 2.89 (#90), 61.4% (#106)
10. Taylor Leon, $85.6K (#111), 73.64 (#127), 2.76 (#133), 63.0% (#88)
11. Jimin Jeong, $81.9K (#115), 73.12 (#98), 2.91 (#131), 63.9% (#67)
12. Sarah Kemp, $73.4K (#122), 73.59 (#123), 2.71 (#102), 60.3% (#126)
13. Anna Rawson, $62.8K (#127), 73.54 (#121), 2.66 (#146), 67.9% (#14)
14. Amy Yang, $60.8K (#129), 72.45 (?), ?, ?
15. Anna Grzebien, $39.1K (#142), 73.51 (#119), 2.90 (#140), 65.7% (#45)
16. Anja Monke, $35.9K (#145), 72.13 (?), ?, ?
17. Liz Janangelo, $34.0K (#147), 74.20 (#142), 2.66 (#102), 59.8% (#151)
18. Hannah Jun, $32.0K (#150), 73.56 (?), ?, ?
19. Ashleigh Simon, $20.3K (#157), 74.27 (#144), 2.51 (#146), 59.9% (#130)
20. Amie Cochran, $17.2K (#158), 75.42 (?), ?, ?
21. Leah Wigger, $14.1K (#162), 74.24 (?), ?, ?
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, $8.6K (#169), 75.05 (?), ?, ?
23. Nicole Hage, $8.4K (#171), 74.50 (?), ?, ?
24. Chris Brady, $6.1K (#177), 74.45 (?), ?, ?
25. Violeta Retamoza, $2.5K (#188), 79.44 (#161), 1.62 (#155), 41.9% (#161)
26. Sarah Oh, $0K (n.a.), 76.17 (?), ?, ?
27. Hwanhee Lee, $0K (n.a.), 76.60 (?), ?, ?
28. Emma Cabrera-Bello, $0K (n.a.), 78.00 (?), ?, ?


Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events entered/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/cuts made (made cut rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the rookies haven't been at this long at all, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who were not exempt this year. What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now. I include these other ways of seeing how the rookies finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. So here's how they stand at the end of '08.

1. Ya Ni Tseng, $1.75M (#100), 27/1/1/8/10/18/26 (.963)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $1.10M (#158), 27/0/0/3/9/18/27 (1.000)
3. Hee Young Park, $474.7K (#267), 28/0/0/0/4/7/22 (.786)
4. Shanshan Feng, $472.8K (#269), 26/0/0/1/5/7/15 (.577)
5. Momoko Ueda, $413.6K (#281), 19/0/0/0/3/5/16 (.842)
6. Louise Friberg, $395.1K (#285), 24/0/1/1/3/4/16 (.667)
7. Sandra Gal, $181.2K (#388), 22/0/0/0/0/3/17 (.773)
8. Eunjung Yi, $95.2K (#455), 13/0/0/0/0/1/8 (.615)
9. Carolina Llano, $88.0K (#471), 23/0/0/0/1/1/11 (.478)
10. Taylor Leon, $85.6K (#475), 16/0/0/0/1/3/8 (.500)
11. Jimin Jeong, $81.9K (#480), 13/0/0/0/1/1/9 (.692)
12. Sarah Kemp, $73.4K (#487), 20/0/0/0/0/2/9 (.450)
13. Anna Rawson, $62.8K (#509), 13/0/0/0/1/2/5 (.385)
14. Amy Yang, $60.8K (#512), 7/0/0/0/1/2/5 (.714)
15. Anna Grzebien, $39.1K (#557), 15/0/0/0/0/1/5 (.333)
16. Anja Monke, $35.9K (#561), 4/0/0/0/0/0/4 (1.000)
17. Liz Janangelo, $34.0K (#563), 22/0/0/0/0/0/9 (.409)
18. Hannah Jun, $32.0K (#568), 9/0/0/0/0/0/5 (.556)
19. Ashleigh Simon, $20.3K (#599), 14/0/0/0/0/0/5 (.357)
20. Amie Cochran, $17.2K (#609), 5/0/0/0/0/1/1 (.200)
21. Leah Wigger, $14.1K (#628), 6/0/0/0/0/0/3 (.500)
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, $8.6K (#656), 8/0/0/0/0/0/2 (.250)
23. Nicole Hage, $8.4K (#657), 7/0/0/0/0/0/2 (.286)
24. Chris Brady, $6.1K (#673), 4/0/0/0/0/0/2 (.500)
25. Violeta Retamoza, $2.5K (#704), 19/0/0/0/0/0/1 (.053)
26. Emma Cabrera-Bello, $0K (n.a.), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
27. Sarah Oh, $0K (n.a.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
28. Hwanhee Lee, $0K (n.a.), 5/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
29. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
30. Sofie Andersson, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)


Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 12/22/08) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 12/21/08) and rank, International and Non-Member LPGA Wins (as of the end of the 2008 season): This is a way of seeing how those rookies who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Ya Ni Tseng, 9.41 (#2), 69.83 (#8); 0
2. Momoko Ueda, 4.13 (#14), 70.80 (#26); 7
3. Na Yeon Choi, 3.37 (#28), 69.92 (#9); 4
4. Shanshan Feng, 2.14 (#48), 72.69 (#104); 0
5. Hee Young Park, 1.87 (#58), 71.35 (#46); 4
6. Louise Friberg, 1.44 (#72), 72.21 (#82); 0
7. Amy Yang, 1.22 (#87), 71.80 (#64); 3
8. Sandra Gal, .77 (#124); 71.69 (#58); 0
9. Anja Monke, .59 (#155), 73.45 (#157); 2
10. Sarah Kemp, .45 (#196), 73.82 (#184); 0
11. Anna Rawson, .44 (#198), 73.57 (#166); 0
12. Jimin Jeong, .41 (#208), 73.20 (#134); 0
13. Eunjung Yi, .41 (#210), 72.73 (#108); 0
14. Ashleigh Simon, .33 (#236), 74.38 (#238); 1
15. Taylor Leon, .27 (#261), 73.76 (#177); 0
16. Carolina Llano, .17 (#325), 73.78 (#180); 0
17. Anna Grzebien, .12 (#361), 74.27 (#225); 0
18. Liz Janangelo, .07 (#434), 74.30 (#227); 0
19. Emma Cabrera-Bello, .07 (#439), 74.96 (#284); 0
20. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, .06 (#451), 74.31 (#230); 0
21. Sarah Oh, .05 (#472), 77.19 (n.r.); 0
22. Amie Cochran, .04 (#498), 75.66 (n.r.); 0
23. Nicole Hage, .04 (#509), 76.05 (#356); 0
24. Leah Wigger, .04 (#536), 73.87 (#191); 0
25. Violeta Retamoza, .03 (#586), 78.16 (#484); 0
26. Hannah Jun, .03 (#591), 73.79 (n.r.); 0
27. Sofie Andersson, .01 (#667), 77.20 (#432); 0
28. Hwanhee Lee, n.r., 76.90 (#415); 0
29. Chris Brady, n.r., 76.91 (#416); 0
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, n.r., 76.27 (n.r.); 0

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