Yonex Ladies Sunday: Kitada Does It!

Rui Kitada got her 5th career JLPGA win today at the Yonex Ladies, extending her lead to 3 shots on Erina Hara at the turn with a bogey-free 34 and cruising her way on the back to a 69 while the field was collapsing around the leaders. Only Ya-Huei Lu went lower than Kitada (and she needed to birdie 3 of her final 4 holes to post her 68) and only Sakura Yokomine could match her (she carded 4 birdies and a bogey in her final 5 holes to do so). Yup, only 3 players broke 70 this Sunday--tough conditions, even tougher win.

Here are the results:

1st/-9 Kitada (70-68-69)
2nd/-6 Hara (71-69-70)
3rd/-5 Yokomine (70-72-69)
4th/-4 Lu (73-71-68)
T5/-3 Hiromi Takesue (73-70-70), Momoyo Kawakubo (73-70-70), Yuri Fudoh (70-72-71), Jae-Hee Bae (72-70-71)
9th/-2 Maiko Wakabayashi (71-70-73)
T10/-1 Saiki Fujita (69-74-72), Yun-Joo Jeong (73-69-73), Keiko Sasaki (74-67-74), Mie Nakata (70-71-74)

Bae was -4 at the turn after making 3 birdies in a row in the middle of the front side, but lost her momentum at exactly the wrong time. Still, it's a great top 5 for her, Takesue, and Kawakubo--and nice top 10s for Jeong and Sasaki.

T14/E Shinobu Moromizato (71-72-73), Tamie Durdin (71-72-73)
T20/+1 Nikki Campbell (71-74-72), Akiko Fukushima (73-71-73)
T27/+2 Yuki Sakurai (75-71-72), Midori Yoneyama (73-73-72), Eun-A Lim (69-76-73)
T33/+3 Chie Arimura (74-71-74), Mayu Hattori (71-73-75)

This was the week where the JLPGA's B-list struck back. Sure puts things up in the air with the next major only weeks away.

Check out the new money list:

1. Akiko Fukushima ￥81.24M
2. Mi-Jeong Jeon ￥68.91M
3. Ji-Hee Lee ￥68.28M
4. Miho Koga ￥67.99M
5. Sakura Yokomine ￥56.88M
6. Erina Hara ￥50.92M
7. Ayako Uehara ￥49.52M
8. Yuko Mitsuka ￥48.88M
9. Eun-A Lim ￥45.00M
10. Hyun-Ju Shin ￥43.70M
11. Shiho Oyama ￥41.12M
12. Shinobu Moromizato ￥40.86M
13. Bo-Bae Song ￥40.26M
14. Chie Arimura ￥39.47M
15. Yukari Baba ￥38.80M
16. Yuri Fudoh ￥38.70M
17. Akane Iijima ￥37.41M
18. Hiromi Mogi ￥37.39M
19. Hiroko Yamaguchi ￥34.63M
20. Miki Saiki ￥34.14M
21. Ji-Woo Lee ￥30.73M
22. Rui Kitada ￥27.31M
23. Esther Lee ￥24.27M
24. Midori Yoneyama ￥22.64M
25. Momoko Ueda ￥19.17M
26. Mie Nakata ￥18.85M
27. Maiko Wakabayashi ￥18.64M
28. Na Zhang ￥18.06M
29. Mayu Hattori ￥17.77M
30. Yun-Jye Wei ￥17.42M

The KLPGA Is Back!

Check out Eric's report at Seoul Sisters.com on the SBS Ladies Open. Hee Kyung Seo (-8) not only beat Ji-Yai Shin (-2) soundly, but also Inbee Park (-6), So Yeon Ryu (-4), Ha Neul Kim (-4), Birdie Kim (-3), Song-Hee Kim (-3), Gloria Park (-2), Hee Young Park (E), Eun-Hee Ji (+3), and In-Kyung Kim (+3), among other KLPGA and LPGA stars who figured a 2-week layoff was just too long.

Which raises 2 thoughts. First, how can anyone look at the photos Eric posted and think, "these girls have no personality"? Second, where are the Americans taking advantage of the layoff to increase their global exposure? Paula Creamer and Natalie Gulbis usually play a couple of extra times a year on the JLPGA, but besides them off the top of my head I can only think of Aussie Anna Rawson who's gone East (she got a top 10 at a KLPGA event earlier this year).

Yonex Ladies Saturday: Is Rui Kitada Back?

Rui Kitada fired a 68 to take a 2-shot lead on Erina Hara into the final round of the Yonex Ladies. Kitada, who won 3 times and ended up 3rd on the money list in 2004, hasn't played to that level since, although she did win again in 2007. She got off to a slow start this season, and despite garnering 6 top 20s in her last 9 starts, including 3 of her 4 top 10s, is languishing in 32nd place on the money list. Hara, meanwhile, is looking for her 2nd win in 3 weeks--and to get back on track after a T40 last week broke her 5-tournament top 10 streak. She birdied 5 of her last 10 holes to pull into solo 2nd. With first-round leaders Yasuko Satoh and Woo-Soon Ko both shooting 74s today to fall 4 shots off the pace, however, this is by no means destined to be a Kitada-Hara shootout. Check out the top 10:

1st/-6 Kitada (70-68)
2nd/-4 Hara (71-69)
T3/-3 Keiko Sasaki (74-67), Maiko Wakabayashi (71-70), Mie Nakata (70-71)
T6/-2 Yun-Joo Jeong (73-69), Tomomi Hirose (72-70), Jae-Hee Bae (72-70), Sakura Yokomine (70-72), Yuri Fudoh (70-72), Kayo Yamada (70-72), Junko Omote (70-72), Satoh (68-74), Ko (68-74)

Wakabayashi came back from a double bogey on the 383-yard par-4 5th with 3 birdies in her last 5 holes to close with a 33. Sasaki's 67 is the best round of the week. Nakata won twice in 2006 and is a seasoned veteran. Jeong's closing 32 ties Hara's for the lowest 9 of the week. Meanwhile, Yokomine and Fudoh are lurking. 4 shots is not much of a lead on them, particularly when you take into account how difficult the course has been playing for most of the field:

T15/-1 Shinobu Moromizato (71-72), Tamie Durdin (71-72), Saiki Fujita (69-74)
T24/E Akiko Fukushima (73-71), Mayu Hattori (71-73)
T31/+1 Chie Arimura (74-71), Nikki Campbell (71-74), Eun-A Lim (69-76)
T42/+2 Yuki Sakurai (75-71), Midori Yoneyama (73-73)

Fukushima made 5 birdies but 4 bogeys in her stalled bid to get into contention, while Arimura made 3 birdies in her 1st 6 holes before stumbling over her last 10. The LET's Sakurai did well to make the cut under these conditions, when such a surprising number of top players and promising young guns missed it:

T52/+3 Ritsuko Ryu (74-73), Ayako Uehara (72-75)
T58/+4 Hiroko Yamaguchi (75-73), Miki Saiki (75-73)

Uehara and Saiki doubled the 17th, a long par 4, while Ryu made 2 birdies down the stretch, but needed 3 to offset her double on the short par-4 12th, and Yamaguchi closed with 8 straight pars after her last birdie of the day on the long par-4 10th. When Noriko Aso can go 77-68 and Yoko Maeda 76-69 to make the cut, these results are bitterly disappointing.

Should be interesting to see if Kitada can return to her winning ways, Hara can become the JLPGA's 4th repeat winner of the season, a young gun like Sasaki or Wakabayashi can step up, or a big name like Yokomine, Fudoh, or Fukushima can make a charge from way back.

Yonex Ladies Friday: Will This Finally Be Yokomine's Week?

With many top players on the JLPGA either taking the week off, injured, withdrawn, or struggling, the Yonex Ladies may well represent Sakura Yokomine's best chance for redemption this season. Despite being 1 of only 3 players in the top 15 to fail to birdie the 478-yard par-5 18th, Yokomine is only 2 shots behind dark-horse leaders Yasuko Satoh and Woo-Soon Ko and only 1 shot behind Eun-A Lim and Saiki Fujita heading into the weekend after her bogey-free 70. But Yuri Fudoh, already a 2-time winner this season, birdied her last 2 holes to pull even with Yokomine, while several other highly-ranked players are breathing down their necks. Here are the top 10 and notables:

T1/-4 Satoh, Ko (68)
T3/-3 Lim, Fujita (69)
T5/-2 Yokomine, Fudoh, Mie Nakata, and 8 others (70)

T16/-1 Erina Hara, Shinobu Moromizato, Maiko Wakabayashi, Mayu Hattori, Tamie Durdin, Nikki Campbell (71)
T27/E Ayako Uehara (72)
T38/+1 Akiko Fukushima, Midori Yoneyama (73)

T51/+2 Chie Arimura, Ritsuko Ryu (74)
T67/+3 Hiroko Yamaguchi, Miki Saiki, Yuki Sakurai (75)

Still, this represents Yokomine's best chance for her 1st win of the season since she faded in Kobe. With the 44-year-old Ko looking simply to earn a paycheck (she's only cracked the top 20 once in her 8 made cuts in 2008), the 29-year-old Satoh coming off only her 2nd top 5 of the season, the 25-year-old Lim only garnering 2 top 10s in her last 8 events since her win, and the 22-year-old Fujita coming off a final round 81 that dropped her from 2nd to 23rd last week, this could be Yokomine's week.

The Best of the LPGA: August 2008 Edition

This is my 4th ranking of the LPGA's top players this season. With international dominance all the rage this week, let's see what the numbers say.

June: 8 in top 10, 16 in top 20, 22 in top 30, 24 in top 35.
April: 8 in top 10, 14 in top 20, 20 in top 30, 23 in top 33.
February: 8 in top 10, 12 in top 20, 18 in top 30, 19 in top 31.

The number of ranked players who grew up in non-English-dominant countries grew from 14 to 16 to 19, or 45% to 48% to 54% of the LPGA's best.

And now? 8 of the top 10, 17 of the top 20, 22 of the top 30, and 32 of the top 45 were not born in the U.S.A. Of the ranked players, 26--almost 58%--grew up in non-English-dominant countries. So, yeah, Americans continue to lose ground on the LPGA. Except for 2.

The chase pack is closing on the world #1, but she's not going down without a fight:

1. Lorena Ochoa: #1 money ($2.38M), #1 RR (18.60), #1 GSPI (67.70), #1 HD. Only a player of Ochoa's stature could be said to be "struggling" since my last ranking, but that's what happens when you go from winnng almost every tournament you enter to having trouble contending. Still, she dominates almost every major statistical category, often by a wide margin, and has made enough since June alone to rank just outside the top 50 on the money list, which is to say that in less than 2 months she's done better than 130 of her competitors have done all season. She is so due that I predict multiple wins for her down the stretch.

Even as the chase pack is closing, it's also fragmenting. There are only 2 other players in the top 5 in all 4 systems and only 4 in the top 10:

2. Annika Sorenstam: #2 money ($1.59M), #2 RR (10.79), #4 GSPI (69.05), #2 HD. Like Hound Dog, I can't picture her getting LPGA victory #73. I'll go further and worry publicly that my prediction that she'd end the season at #5 may have been a bit too generous. Does she have anything left in the tank for the home stretch? She skipped the Midwest swing to prepare for the European swing. Will she even play September's Southern swing? And would even that much rest help her all that much in October and November?
3. Paula Creamer: #3 money ($1.48M), #5 RR (8.62), #2 GSPI (68.85), #3 HD. I'll tell you, I was tempted to put Creamer ahead of Sorenstam. She's already ahead in top 10 percentage and greens in regulation rate--and right behind in scoring average, birdies per round rate, and rounds under par percentage. Do you realize she's had only 4 finishes outside the top 16 all season? (Sorenstam's had 7.)
4. Ya Ni Tseng: #4 money ($1.41M), #3 RR (8.79), #8 GSPI (69.53), #4 HD. At the same time, if Tseng had turned any of her 4 silvers and 1 bronze this season into just 1 gold, I would have strongly considered making her my #2. Her disappointing missed cut at the Safeway Classic is only her 6th finish outside the top 16. With her nagging triceps problem, the LPGA's late-summer vacation couldn't have come at a better time for her physically. She still could end the season at #2. As great as Creamer's been playing this season, I think Tseng is the only 1 on tour who has a real chance at taking Player of the Year away from Ochoa. She's the only other player on tour averaging above 4 birdies per round, so she has the gunslinger's mentality--and talent to back it up--that's needed to take on the challenge. And she's recently joined the elite group of players that Lorena mentions by name, following a similar compliment from Annika.
5. Cristie Kerr: #9 money ($882.3K), #6 RR (6.42), #6 GSPI (69.22), #5 HD. Amazing what a win will do for your year, isn't it? With it, she jumped back to where she started the season after dropping to #9 in June. But with 10 straight finishes of 21st or better (and only 8 worse than 16th all season), she's punched her ticket for the ADT Championship, given herself a great shot at her 5th straight million-dollar season, and established herself as 1 of the hottest players on tour. It'll be very interesting to see how the multiple weeks off in August and September will affect her momentum.

Don't look now, but the trio with a trio of top 10s is due to break out:

6. Suzann Pettersen: #11 money ($868.9K), #4 RR (8.78), #3 GSPI (68.94), #9 HD. You know, I'm sure she's not terribly happy with her results this season, but I have to say I've been impressed with her mental toughness. Her worst finish all season has been a T34 at the LPGA Championship--it's her only finish outside the top 30. So even when she hasn't had her A-game, she's proven that her B-game is pretty damn good. If she can get half as hot at the end of this season as she did at the end of 2007, she'll not only make it 2 years in a row that the Class of 2003 has a pair of million-dollar winners, but also give herself a chance to catch Annika.
7. Na Yeon Choi: #8 money ($1.00M), #27 RR (3.56), #7 GSPI (69.44), #6 HD. Although she recently matched her worst finish on the LPGA from the 1st event of the year at the Canadian Women's Open (T32) and hasn't medalled as often as Rookie of the Year race leader Tseng, she could still finish at the top of her class. She's got a better top 10 rate, after all, and is hanging with Tseng in just about every other category. This could be the best ROY race in LPGA history....
8. Seon Hwa Lee: #7 money ($1.06M), #10 RR (5.22), #13 GSPI (70.40), #7 HD. Talk about the Mostly Harmless reverse jinx: Lee has gotten each of her wins this season soon after I complained about her short game in April and her inconsistency in June. So it's time to complain about her hangover since that NW Arkansas victory. Time to snap out of it, Seon Hwa!

The rest of the chase pack has fallen back a bit and can be found in the top 10 in only 2 of the 4 systems (and/or in the top 20 in all):

9. Jeong Jang: #10 money ($874.3K), #11 RR (4.87), #9 GSPI (69.89), #11 HD. Ouch--her taking that break to rest her wrist that I recommended back in June hasn't helped. Expect her to have surgery in the off-season. But also look for her to break the million-dollar mark this season. That's how tough she is.
10. Inbee Park: #5 money ($1.10M), #12 RR (4.74), #33 GSPI (71.02), #8 HD. You know, it's sad to see that the U.S. Women's Open jinx is even stronger than the Mostly Harmless reverse jinx. Or is it? Only time will tell if this attempt to trigger the latter can overcome the former. And if noting that she had a worse start to the season and a similar rough patch in the middle weakens the latter too much. How about this? I think the GSPI is a more accurate indicator of her chances the rest of the season than the other systems.
11. Helen Alfredsson: #6 money ($1.10M), #9 RR (5.43), #49 GSPI (71.58), #17 HD. You know, I just love to see the Mostly Harmless reverse jinx in action. In June I wrote, "don't expect to see her back here in August." Instead, she moves from #30 almost into my top 10! Still, I'd be shocked to see her finish in my top 20. There. She'll probably win the ADT Championship now.
12. Eun-Hee Ji: #12 money ($819.8K), #15 RR (4.57), #15 GSPI (70.46), #12 HD. Had a great Midwest swing and European swing, but cooled off up north, so the LPGA's summer break is coming at a good time for her. I would not be surprised to see her win again this season, perhaps even in the Southern swing. Nor would I be surprised to see her pass fellow Super Soph Inbee Park on the money list by season's end. What can I say? She reminds me of Seon Hwa Lee.
13. Hee-Won Han: #17 money ($683.8K), #19 RR (4.21), #10 GSPI (69.95), #13 HD. Now that's more like it! If she can continue the pace she's been setting of late--4 top 10s in her last 5 events--she'll validate her pre-season ranking of #8 from me.
14. Karrie Webb: #14 money ($711.9K), #8 RR (6.05), #11 GSPI (70.01), #14 HD. Hey, I finally got a call right back in June: "Don't expect her to remain in the top 10 next ranking. There are too many hungry young guns behind her playing better and more consistent golf than she has been the past 2 years." If she doesn't turn it around soon, my pre-season #21 ranking will prove to be prescient.
15. Angela Park: #13 money ($784.9K), #13 RR (4.68), #17 GSPI (70.60), #16 HD. Movin' on up! 4 top 6s in your last 7 events will do that for you.

Surprisingly, there's only 1 player with top 20s in 3 of the 4 systems.

16. Jee Young Lee: #18 money ($561.4K), #17 RR (4.43), #18 GSPI (70.61), #21 HD. The good news: she has 8 top 20s in her last 10 events. The bad news: she's missed the cut twice and has no top 10s in that same span. Come on, Jee Young!

And there are only a couple of golfers with 2 top 20s:

17. Song-Hee Kim: #15 money ($709.6K), #44 RR (2.56), #29 GSPI (70.94), #15 HD. Has the opportunity to turn a great season into a fantastic one if she can recapture that mid-season form. Taking a rest before the European swing didn't help her, so we'll have to see how she handles these 2 weeks off after a very good and a solid finish on the Northern swing. Here's hoping the Super Soph heats up in the South.
18. Karen Stupples: #25 money ($522.7K), #33 RR (3.20), #12 GSPI (70.32), #18 HD. Cooling off fast, but less fast than those behind her.

So of course there are a lot with 1 top 20 (or 4 top 30s):

19. Maria Hjorth: #26 money ($500.9K), #14 RR (4.67), #20 GSPI (70.63), #26 HD. Hasn't played all that much or all that well lately, but see what I said about Stupples.
20. Laura Diaz: #20 money ($550.9K), #26 RR (3.58), #22 GSPI (70.71), #19 HD. She's coming off her best 4-tournament string of the season, at least since its very beginning. Still, it's hard to believe she's the 4th-ranked American (behind Anela Park) this time around.
21. Ji Young Oh: #21 money ($541.6K), #54 RR (2.02), #30 GSPI (70.95), #20 HD. If you had told me in January that she'd get her 1st win before Angela Park, In-Kyung Kim, Jane Park, and Song-Hee Kim, I would have looked at you like you were a crazy person. I still can't believe she did it. But great for her!
22. Jane Park: #19 money ($560.9K), #40 RR (2.78), #36 GSPI (71.20), #23 H.D. Now the 6th-ranked Super Soph here, I jinxed her when I wrote in June that "she's put herself in contention a few times already this season and is likely to do it several more times before the year is out." Sure, she got a T2 when Seon Hwa Lee won in Arkansas, but she hasn't come close since. Consider this complaint an attempt to activate the Mostly Harmless reverse jinx.
23. Mi Hyun Kim: #42 money ($376.5K), #23 RR (3.88), #14 GSPI (70.41), #30 HD. She's admitted her knee is bothering her. Made the right call to avoid the Northern swing after suffering in Europe. Hopefully the time off and the return to hot climates will heat up her game.
24. Katherine Hull: #16 money ($692.3K), #43 RR (2.62), #70 GSPI (72.04), #28 HD. A bigger Cinderella story than Oh, Hull followed up her CWO win with a 4th at the Safeway Classic, making it 3 top 6s in her last 6 events. If she can keep up this pace after the break, I'll be even more impressed.
25. Morgan Pressel: #29 money ($448.4K), #20 RR (4.09), #39 GSPI (71.24), n.r. HD. Not only did her extra preparation for the European swing not pay off, she had a disappointing Northern swing, as well. Gotta work on those approach shots. She's still not hitting nearly as many greens as she should for such an accurate driver of the ball, which is putting a lot of pressure on her putting.
26. Juli Inkster: #36 money ($412.0K), #21 RR (4.06), #16 GSPI (70.54), n.r. HD. Yup, I hit the nail on the head with June's "never count this Hall of Famer out!" Got a top 10 out of nowhere at Evian and followed it up with a top 15 at the Women's British Open. After another long break, she's poised to contend on the Southern swing.
27. Candie Kung: #33 money ($437.8K), #51 RR (2.17), #19 GSPI (70.62), n.r. HD. Disappointing results after a top 12 at the Evian Masters. Another player who stands to benefit from the chance to recharge her batteries.
28. Momoko Ueda: #38 money ($393.8K), #16 RR (4.44), #23 GSPI (70.71), n.r. HD. What a terrible August for Momo-chan! Not only did she play badly by her standards in the 2 JLPGA events she entered, but she also lost an entire fingernail in a gory accident at a photo shoot with a seeing eye dog on the eve of the Yonex Ladies this week. So much for charging up the JLPGA money list during their major season before rejoining the LPGA in Hawaii. She might still stick to that schedule, but how well she'll play while she's healing is another question entirely.

Right behind them is a trio with 3 top 30s:

29. Christina Kim: #24 money ($526.7K), #39 RR (2.85), #21 GSPI (70.70), #22 HD. Disappointing European and Northern swings lead me to believe that the summer break couldn't have come at a better time for her. Hopefully will get her groove back down South.
30. Stacy Prammanasudh: #31 money ($443.8K), #28 RR (3.55), #24 GSPI (70.78), #25 HD. Showed what she's capable of at the State Farm Classic, but went right back to the blahs afterward. Another American looking for the rebound in Dixie.
31. Sophie Gustafson: #22 money ($533.7K), #30 RR (3.44), #40 GSPI (71.25), #29 HD. Just got a T2 out of the blue--she took a little longer than I expected for her to bounce back from giving away the Sybase, but now that she remembers what it's like to be in the hunt, look for her to get back into it more often.

And close on their heels is a big group with 2 top 30s:

32. Angela Stanford: #27 money ($463.9K), #31 RR (3.32), #26 GSPI (70.91), n.r. HD. Hmm, back in June I wrote that she's "In a real tailspin since making Hound Dog's top 10 in May, but she's too good for it to last." Well, with 3 missed cuts to 1 top 10 after starting the season with the reverse, she's got a 50-50 chance of turning it around in the final third of the year.
33. Nicole Castrale: #28 money ($450.8K), #25 RR (3.59), #31 GSPI (71.00), n.r. HD. Cooled off fast up North, so she's yet another American looking for some heat next month in the South.
34. Sun Young Yoo: #23 money ($531.4K), #71 RR (1.62), #32 GSPI (71.01), #24 HD. A T4 at the CWO shows she can still jump into contention any given week, but her other results from the European and Northern swings suggest such leaps don't come all that often. Having skipped 3 of the 1st 7 events on the 2008 schedule and a grand total of 0 since week 7, the 2 weeks off since the Safeway will be much deserved--and appreciated. But will they be enough?
35. Catriona Matthew: #40 money ($388.0K), #24 RR (3.74), #38 GSPI (71.21), n.r. HD. Made her 1st (and only) cut of the year in a major at the WBO and celebrated with a strong Northern swing. Can she regain her momentum after taking 2 weeks off?
36. In-Kyung Kim: #30 money ($446.9K), #38 RR (2.99), #47 GSPI (71.57), n.r. HD. Inexplicably skipped the Safeway Classic after notching 3 straight top 20s for the 1st time all season. She still has a chance to turn this year around. It's go time for the former #2 in her class.
37. Se Ri Pak: #46 money ($332.8K), #22 RR (3.88), #80 GSPI (72.30), n.r. HD. Went MC-2nd-MC in her last 3 events. On the one hand, this shows what kind of talent this Hall of Famer still has. On the other, it raises questions about her focus and motivation. Maybe she can rekindle the fire in her belly in preparation for the Asian swing.
38. Lindsey Wright: #44 money ($372.7K), #45 RR (2.42), #25 GSPI (70.82), n.r. HD. Has cooled off a lot since the early spring, but still relatively close to being a top 20 player. It's a very big surprise to me that Hull got her 1st win before she did, though. Hopefully her 1st top 20 since the LPGA Championship last week at the Safeway Classic will remind her of her early-season play.

And here are the best of the rest:

39. Teresa Lu: #32 money ($441.9K), #56 RR (1.97), #34 GSPI (71.15), n.r. HD.
40. Ai Miyazato: #37 money ($393.8K), #35 RR (3.09), #87 GSPI (72.41), n.r. HD.
41. Meena Lee: #34 money ($435.2K), #65 RR (1.82), #43 GSPI (71.50), n.r. HD.
42. Natalie Gulbis: #53 money ($266.2K), #34 RR (3.12), #54 GSPI (71.64), n.r. HD.
43. Brittany Lang: #39 money ($389.0K), #55 RR (2.00), #60 GSPI (71.74), n.r. H.D.
44. Leta Lindley: #35 money ($415.3K), #69 RR (1.66), #59 GSPI (71.73), n.r. HD.
45. Shi Hyun Ahn: #52 money ($289.9K), #37 RR (3.03), #77 GSPI (72.24), n.r. HD.

As always, I get these figures by combining the most recent results from the Rolex Rankings, the Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index, the LPGA Official Money List, and Hound Dog's Top 30. We'll revisit them at the end of October.

[Update 1 (9/6/08, 6:33 pm): Hound Dog has rolled out his advanced rating system that allows him to rank the LPGA's top 70! If I can find the time, I'll update this top 45 with his new rankings!]

Abort, Retry, Fail?

Given that there's talk of legal action and boycotts in response to the LPGA's new policy making command of conversational English a condition of membership, the tour's options are increasingly limited. It's down to Abort, Retry, Fail?

Hit "A" to abort the operation: Don't expect a commissioner known for sticking to her guns to back down. The push for international players to learn more English will continue. But the fact that the policy was floated before being fully formulated suggests that the LPGA brass is open to revising it and to tweaking its implementation.

Hit "R" to try reading the data again: What the LPGA ought to do is discuss the policy with all its players (yes, with translators), analyze the data they're getting, along with new data from media and golfosphere responses, and decide on what needs to be changed. Here's a preliminary list:

1) Universalize the rule. If you really want to make the argument stick that communication skills are a crucial component of a golfer's overall professional development and drive home the point that the LPGA is a global tour, then require every player to demonstrate minimal conversational competence in 2 languages. And make sure that the standards players will be held to in English are the same as those for Spanish, French, Japanese, Korean, and Chinese.

2) Clarify the quiz. Let all the players know what the oral exams for demonstrating that minimal competence will consist of and how they will be evaluated. Give them opportunities to take practice tests.

3) Suspend the suspension. Most everyone agrees suspending a player's membership on the first failure is much too harsh a penalty. Anyone who fails a test should be required to hire a tutor during the next season and take mandatory classes in the off-season (either through an LPGA program or an accredited college or university). Allow each player 2 fails before membership is suspended.

Hit "F" to attempt to proceed without the necessary data: Go ahead and don't hit "R." Just don't be surprised if you get taken to court, lose players to the JLPGA, KLPGA, and LET, lose sponsorships from international, multinational, and transnational corporations, and lose fans from all over the world (including the U.S.).

Better to listen to the wiki gods: "The only option that offered any hope of a solution was Retry."

[Update 1 (11:12 pm): Bivens is reportedly on vacation, so she has plenty of time to digest Golfweek's coverage: Baldry, Rothman, Martin, Ferguson.]

[Update 2 (8/29/08, 5:33 am): Daniel Wexler asks the Commissioner, "Why risk the monopoly?" Good question.]

[Update 3 (12:16 pm): Golf.com has codified this into a pro/con debate format, but what gets lost in the shuffle is whether it's good business or not, on the one hand, and whether there's a moral justification or not, on the other.]

[Update 4 (12:38 pm): Perhaps the Commissioner should wonder whether she needs any enemies, what with friends like these.]

[Update 5 (12:41 pm): Not much insight or analysis from the Sports Law Blog, either.]

[Update 6 (12:48 pm): Eric Baković at Language Log is barely better. But Ted Lieu is a little funny--for a politician.]

[Update 7 (12:52 pm): Bill Imada at Advertising Age calls for the "A" option. Come on, academic bloggers! Can't you be as coherent as a PR analyst?]

[Update 8 (12:58 pm): Lisa Mickey pens another thoughtful and well-reasoned essay from her Futures Tour office. Required reading for anyone who thinks "A" is the right button to hit--the best case I've yet seen for "F".]

[Update 9 (9/1/08, 3:48 am): I was remiss in not linking to this Jason Wulterkens piece earlier.]

[Update 10 (9/4/08, 2:40 am): Here's some free advice I emailed Lisa Mickey. What do you all think of it?

Bottom line: it's the suspension that worries me. Na Yeon Choi's only rookie blog was translated, I just noticed. So there's a possibility the LPGA's 2008 ROY could get suspended at the end of the 2009 season. That would be a fine mess for the LPGA and for Choi. I hope someone's already made that clear to Choi and the Commissioner. Will there be extra efforts on behalf of those on the "watch list" before the exam? Will they even know they're "on the clock," so to speak? How soon?

A suspension after 2 years seems too soon and too harsh to me.

Many fewer international players are going to find themselves in the top 20 in their first 2 years on tour than will be struggling to stay in the the top 80 or 100. For those in the latter group, fines should be enough of an added incentive to keep them working on their English after their second season. I find it hard to believe that the future of the LPGA really depends on someone who may not even stay on tour for more than a handful of years anyway. Why not craft the policy, instead, to create extra incentives for the few individuals in each rookie class who can get a win in their first 2-4 years on the LPGA--most likely 5-10 people per rookie class, if history is any guide--to get their English up to speed?

Let's take the Classes of 2006 and 2007 as an example. We already know Eun-Hee Ji is on the clock. But what about Jee Young Lee, Ai Miyazato, In-Kyung Kim, Song-Hee Kim, Sun Young Yoo, Kyeong Bae, H.J. Choi, Jin Joo Hong, and Na On Min? It's all very murky for them now. (I assume the other international players are fine.) That's at most 10 players in 2 rookie classes who might need work.

If the policy were formulated in the following way, the expectations and timetable would be a lot clearer for all LPGA members, but particularly for those with the potential to become the face of the tour:

You go on the clock after your 3rd top 10 or your 1st win, whichever comes 1st. You then have, say, 30 events to get your English to a certain very minimal standard or face fines, 60 events to get it to a more adequate standard or face probation, and 90 events to get it to where it ought to be or face suspension.

With clear criteria and clear benchmarks, the players could craft their own timetables for learning English and adjust their playing schedules in light of their actual progress.

I also think there are lessons to be learned from the Patti Rizzo story.]

Babelfish Poetry: For Momo-chan

Just want to make a small point about the beauty that can come from non-standard English--in this case, the babelfish translation of a Japanese news report of Momoko Ueda's painful fingernail accident. I've just removed some words and punctuation marks, inserted some line and stanza breaks, changed some capitalizations, and voila: a pretty damn good imagist poem.

The seeing eye dog surprised
the flash of the cameraman of the multitude produced
to run, suddenly.

Being flurried, tries probably to grasp the lanyard
“the painful [tsu]!” with voice was increased
being caught to the cord which was pulled

It peeled the nail of the left hand middle finger
the nail which peels off even cruelly fell to the land
the blood dripped from the finger

For a while holding down the finger
at that place
which it cannot move

It is painful
the face was twisted with pain
the tear floated in the eye

News Flash! Momoko Ueda Injury

The Full Metal Archivist called me over my lunch break to tell me about a grotesque accident that befell Momoko Ueda recently. Apparently something happened in a photo shoot that ripped the fingernails completely off at least one hand. I'll try to get confirmation on this and details when I get home. I haven't seen this story hit the English-language media or golfosphere. Anyone read/hear anything about it?

[Update 1 (7:13 pm): All right, this is the basic story coming out of the Kyodo News Service. Ueda was in a photo shoot for the Yonex Ladies event this week on the JLPGA when a flash startled the service dog (seeing-eye dog?), causing it to lunge away. Ueda reached out with her left hand to grab the dog's leash, but lost at least a few fingernails when she couldn't stop the dog. (Itai!!--now I know why those extra-long fingernails of hers have always worried me.) She's withdrawn from the tournament. More later when I can get a working translation of Ueda's latest blog post from the Full Metal Archivist.]

[Update 2 (7:47 pm): Ah, nothing special, just a quick note to her fans saying she hopes nobody gets the wrong impression about service dogs from her accident. Gotta keep those sponsors happy (according to the FMA)....]

[Update 3 (8:02 pm): From what I can understand of the babelfish translation of a Japanese web site that Go-Kimmie-Go provided at Seoul Sisters.com, Ueda only lost 1 nail, on the middle finger of her left hand. BTW, do you think babelfish could pass the Bivens test?]

No, Tell Us What You Really Think

I'll be the first to admit I was dodging some key issues yesterday by attempting a humorous response to the LPGA's new non-golf-based membership criterion for non-native English speakers, namely, that they must prove themselves able to hold a casual conversation with a native speaker in a pro-am or meet-and-greet and do interviews and victory speeches in English without the aid of a translator--or face suspension until they can.

Let's dispense with the obvious ironies quickly. The policy was introduced in universalist terms, at least in the way Beth Ann Baldry summarized it at the start of her Golfweek article, but its targets are only those international players deemed at risk of being incomprehensible to their pro-am playing partners. (Double the pleasure, double the fun: it's selective and arbitrary, high-stakes and nebulous....) If multilingualism is such a great thing, why not make it a requirement for all players? Next, Commissioner Bivens floated the trial balloon in a mandatory meeting with South Korean players last week at the Safeway Classic, but apparently her communication skills are so bad she left many players with the mistaken impression that they would be kicked out of the tour if they couldn't pass an oral exam. No, no: there's an extra level of tutoring during the suspension period--apparently, there will be list of Tour-approved golf cliches to be memorized. Finally, the effort to make monolingual American sponsors happy may produce a backlash among international sponsors. Apparently the LPGA values tournament hosts, sponsors, and fans from non-English-dominant countries for everything but their language(s).

There are subtler ironies to be enjoyed as well. Like confirmed Bivens-haters getting so outraged against this policy that they've helped to give the LPGA the best publicity it could possibly have hoped for at the start of its 2-week summer break (on the principle that any publicity is good publicity, at least). How often do Deadspin and ESPN (or even Golfweek) make anything LPGA-related one of their featured stories? Tenured radicals like me must be finding the spectacle of Main Street Republicans ("what's good for American business...") and Wall Street Republicans ("full speed ahead! globalize away!") duking it out, so to speak, as intensely as America Firsters ("English ONLY! English ONLY!") are duelling with Color-Blind Conservatives ("the ball knows no language! be like the ball!") intensely funny and eerily familiar. Just another practical seminar in the meaning of multiculturalism and globalization--popular culture and new media are once again the venue for individual and collective values-clarification.

But that's not all. Consider the potential impact on the Class of 2009. Women's British Open champion Ji-Yai Shin already has membership on the KLPGA, JLPGA, and LET, so she could put together whatever schedule she pleases next season. Before she won the WBO, her plans were to compete full-time on the JLPGA for a year or 2 before trying for the LPGA. How will this new requirement affect her scheduling plans for the next few seasons? If she isn't confident she could pass or pass out of the LPGA's oral exam by the end of the 2011 season, what's stopping her from playing fewer events than the number the LPGA will eventually have to specify to count as "being on tour" in 2009? Playing fewer events means fewer showdowns on American soil (and in front of American tv cameras) with Lorena Ochoa, Paula Creamer, Suzann Pettersen, Ya Ni Tseng, Seon Hwa Lee, Cristie Kerr, and the rest of the top LPGA players in the post-Sorenstam Era. It means no real Rookie of the Year race with Stacy Lewis, Vicky Hurst, Mindy Kim, and a host of other talented young guns--maybe including Michelle Wie. It means less drama, less competition, and less attention for everyone on tour.

Let's say the LPGA remains the only tour in the world with this rule instead of prompting a series of similarly protectionist measures the golf world over. Doesn't this then put the LPGA at a competitive disadvantage for attracting the world's best women golfers? With the U.S. dollar depreciating against the Japanese yen, for instance, the time may not be too far away when the JLPGA not only has more tournaments than the LPGA (that's already happening this year), but also more single-season millionaires (easier to write and understand than "100 mill-yen-aires"). You can bet that as even more Korean golfers try out the JLPGA and succeed on it, more Korean sponsorship money will flow that much shorter trip eastward than all the way to Florida.

The LPGA has had a horrible time attracting more top Japanese golfers to the U.S. more regularly. When Sakura Yokomine, Miho Koga, Erina Hara, Miki Saiki, Ayako Uehara, Yuko Mitsuka, Chie Arimura, Akane Iijima, and Yukari Baba get wind of this requirement, do you think it will make them more or less likely to try the LPGA's Q-School this year? And what about Momoko Ueda (who's having about as much success in her 1st year on tour as Ai Miyazato had in her rookie season)? Do you think she's really eager to take an oral exam at the end of the 2009 season--when she may have won less money in that time than she won in 2006 alone on the JLPGA?

China, you ask? While the opening ceremonies to the Beijing Olympics suggest that a little conversational English will be no obstacle, the new LPGA policy again tips the scales in favor of emerging Chinese stars following Na Zhang and trying the KLPGA and/or JLPGA 1st. Which means more big money the LPGA could potentially lose from new sponsors there.

Heck, if the various Asian tours ever decided to get together and model themselves after the LET rather than trying to produce smaller LPGA-style national tours, the best tour in the wide world of women's golf could end up being such a "Ladies Asian Pacific Tour." Yup, the LPGA could get LAPT.

On the bright side, though, for the time being at least, Australia and New Zealand will become the temporary homes of even more young Korean golfers, immigration to the U.S. may pick up a bit from Asia and Latin America, expensive American golf academies will have to hire more ESL teachers, U.S. colleges and universities with good golf programs will see an increase in applications, enrollments, and donations, and the international golfers who don't play well enough to keep their LPGA cards will come away from their time on tour with a foundation in English that they could develop and parlay into a post-golf career as an agent, consultant, youth golf program coordinator, translator, or caddy.

So it's all good. Right?

[Update 1 (1:20 am): Geoff Shackelford and the other golf writers he's checked out suggest not. Which makes me rethink the one analogy I could come up with that would have lead me to offer qualified support for the new policy. When I taught American Studies and American literature on a Fulbright for a year in Fukuoka, Japan, I was kind of like an honored guest, so the fact that I never quite achieved a pre-schooler's grasp of Japanese after a full semester of an intensive language course at Kyushu University (in which my reawakened student survival instincts allowed me to pass with something close to an A-) was greeted with a polite "at least he's trying." But if I were, say, to try to join the faculty of a Japanese university full-time and live in Japan for more than a couple of years, wouldn't it be fair to expect my Japanese to improve to the point where, even if I were predominantly teaching American Studies in English, I'd be able to attempt explanations and clarifications to my students in Japanese and fumble my way toward participation in department and faculty meetings? Well, sure, but those are core skills for a professor. Do LPGA sponsors and tournament organizers in places with few or poor Latin American and Asian immigrant and citizen communities really believe the LPGA can convince golf media and fans that schmoozing is a core skill for a professional golfer? Oh, sorry, was that Yiddish? But you knew what I meant, right? (Really, was it? My grandparents arrived here in the midst of the 100% American movement, so made quite sure not to pass on any language but their own acquired English to their children. People will adjust, but at what cost? I learned more Yiddish from Seinfeld than my own family.)]

[Update 2 (2:15 am): Here's Ryan Ballengee's second take--precisely the qualified support for the policy I am still struggling over internally.]

[Update 3 (4:40 pm): In comments, Jennifer from Mixed Race America offers a brilliant and wide-ranging analysis of the policy and Ryan's and my responses to it. It's virtually a post of its own--a must-read.]

[Update 4 (7:26 pm): Ryan's been thinking this through further and has withdrawn even his qualified support.]

[Update 5 (8/28/08, 9:30 am): Geoff Shackelford covers the media response so I don't have to. Actually, it's pretty thoughtful. And at times very funny.]

[Update 6 (9:48 am): OK, I will link to Ron Sirak's overview of the issues.]

[Update 7 (2:46 pm): Here's Brent Kelley's take.]

[Update 8 (8/29/08, 12:20 pm): Here's a helpful study guide from Kiel Christianson.]

Why Stop with English?

Ryan Ballengee at Waggle Room has passed along Beth Ann Baldry's Golfweek report on a new condition for LPGA membership: "beginning in 2009, all players who have been on tour for two years must pass an oral evaluation of their English skills."

Well, not all players. As Baldry puts it, "The tour will rely on its communication staff to help identify players who need to be evaluated. International players who already demonstrate English proficiency will not be approached."

And the English skills to be evaluated?

Betsy Clark, LPGA vice president of professional development, said the players will be evaluated by a core team on communication skills such as conversation, survival (i.e. “I’m going to the store.”) and “golfspeak.” Players must be able to conduct interviews and give acceptance speeches without the help of a translator.

LPGA members are encouraged to use the support systems already in place such as the Kolon-LPGA Cross-Cultural Professional Development Program and the Rosetta Stone online language program. In addition to helping players grasp the language, the Kolon program also helps bridge cultural differences and focuses on the LPGA’s Five Points of Celebrity: Appearance, Relevance, Approachability, Joy/Passion and Performance.

And the penalty for failing such a test?

Failure would result in a suspended membership.

“Hopefully what we’re talking about is something that will not happen,” said Libba Galloway, the tour’s deputy commissioner, of possible suspensions. “If it does, we wouldn’t just say, ‘Come back next year.’ What we would do is work with them on where they fell short, provide them the resources they need, the tutoring . . . and when we feel like they need to be evaluated again, we would evaluate.”

Galloway said the policy takes effect immediately, but the “measurement time will be at the end of 2009.”

I only have time to make a couple of observations today, but feel free to chime in. I hope the LPGA has explored how the JLPGA, KLPGA, and especially the LET handle related language issues. If mainly monolingual countries like Japan and Korea don't require this kind of proficiency of their international players, I wonder why a multilingual nation like the U.S. needs such a policy. Does the LET have an "official language"? Or do European education systems already do a better job of educating multilingual speakers than here, so every LET winner would be capable of passing an LPGA-style interview exam in any country that hosts an LET event?

Apparently the LPGA policy is being implemented in the name of "the sponsors."

Kate Peters, executive director of the LPGA State Farm Classic, supported the news. “This is an American tour. It is important for sponsors to be able to interact with players and have a positive experience.”

Perhaps tournament directors and the LPGA could do a better job in seeking out a more diverse array of immigrant and citizen sponsors and pro-am participants (some of whom may actually be fluent in Spanish, Korean, Japanese, etc.).

“This should be a priority in their professional development just the way working on their short game is a priority,” Galloway said. “We just wanted to be clear about our expectations.”

That makes a lot of sense to me. But hey, why stop with English? Why not require all LPGA members to be able to hold a casual conversation and give a short speech in the main language of any nation that hosts an LPGA event? (Hey, maybe there's a reason Michelle Wie is studying Japanese at Stanford!) Put that policy in place and I guarantee we'd see the end of skipping college golf. Perhaps the LPGA could help fundraise for American colleges and universities' modern language departments. (Lord knows, my colleagues could use the support!)

“The bottom line is, we don’t have a job if we don’t entertain,” Lunke said. “In my mind, that’s as big a part of the job as shooting under par.”

But entertain whom? If the goal is to entertain fans around the world, particularly those who may attend a tournament, join in a pro-am, or commit their companies to LPGA sponsorship, then the LPGA's next step is clear.

[Update 1 (2:25 pm): Brent Kelley has a much more considered and thoughtful response than my tongue-in-cheek one. But he does raise similar issues as I do.]

[Update 2 (4:27 pm): And here are Golf Girl's pointed questions. Bob Harig doesn't like the policy.]

[Update 3 (10:33 pm): Brian Hewitt ain't too enthusiastic about the new policy, neither, Huck Finn reported.]

[Update 4 (10:39 pm): Ah, and Jason Wulterkens, in the best Swiftian tradition, offers Commissioner Bivens a few modest proposals.]

[Update 5 (10:44 pm): Meanwhile, Geoff Shackelford pulls no punches (or punchlines). And the ever-polite and balanced Hound Dog argues that the LPGA is barking up the wrong tree.]

[Update 6 (11:34 pm): Michael Walker and Michael Ventre don't like it one bit. Hat tip to willyc and Dennis at the Seoul Sisters.com thread on the new policy.]

[Update 7 (8/27/08, 2:06 am): Rick Tosches is actually pretty funny this time. But this story has officially gone beyond the golfosphere. The new policy is getting even harsher reviews from Eugene Cho, Dewey Hammond, Shaw Moore, John Ochwat, L. Russell Allen.... I give up. Even just googling/blogsearching "LPGA" gives you pages of hits. These were just some of the more interesting ones. See today's post for my own post-spit-take reaction.]

Safeway Classic Sunday: Kerr Breaks Through

Hound Dog has been saying for months that Cristie Kerr is having a better season this year than last--and she got her win to prove it this week at the Safeway Classic. With Helen Alfredsson and Sophie Gustafson breaking 70 for the 3rd straight time, Kerr needed to go out and put pressure on them, and she did with the lowest round of the week. It was so good both veteran Swedes needed to birdie the 18th to force a playoff and did. I'll leave the play-by-play to Hound Dog, as I have only my mom's recap and Kerr's detailed answers to interview questions to go by. But I'll offer my congratulations to the winner!

Quick congrats as well to last week's winner Katherine Hull, Hee-Won Han, and Dorothy Delasin for their good tournaments. And to the LPGA's Big 3 who all tied for 6th. Small condolences to Inbee Park and big ones to Kelli Kuehne, but at least her good friend won. Talk about the difference 18 holes can make! Kuehne just broke the $105K barrier in season winnings, while Kerr has moved close to $900K. With Alfredsson joining the Million Dollar Club and Na Yeon Choi some spare change short, it's up to Kerr, Jeong Jang, Suzann Pettersen, Eun-Hee Ji, and Angela Park to pick up the pace. It's about time to break that 2006 record of 11 LPGA millionaires.

[Update 1 (1:22 am): Verdant Garden followed Jee Young Lee, Inbee Park, and Leta Lindley. Go-Kimmie-Go followed Seon Hwa Lee, Morgan Pressel, and Audra Burks.]

[Update 2 (12:44 pm): Heeeere's Hound Dog!]

CAT Ladies Sunday: Clash of the Titans

With the leaders still on the course, the CAT Ladies JLPGA event is coming down to the wire. Mi-Jeong Jeon and 1st-round leader Yuko Mitsuka tied 2nd-round leader Miho Koga at -9 when they birdied the par-5 13th hole. Koga bogeyed 2 of 3 holes in the middle of the front to open the door for her chase pack, but few others have made or sustained a concerted move.

Yasuko Satoh made 4 birdies on the front but only picked up 2 shots on Koga, as she went double bogey-bogey in the same stretch on which the leader struggled. She's -7 with 2 to play. Sakura Yokomine was there after a 33 on the front, but 2 bogeys on the back dropped her out of contention. And mistakes have limited the ground Ji-Hee Lee has made up on Koga, as she's all-but-offset 4 birdies with 3 bogeys and finds herself 3 back with 4 to play.

Still, they're doing better than most of the field. Playing in the final threesome, Saiki Fujita knocked herself out of contention by going +5 in her 1st 13 holes, matching the LPGA's Momoko Ueda (+5 through 16), who's going to endure her 2nd straight disappointing finish on the JLPGA to go along with Ai Miyazato's 2 straight missed cuts on the LPGA. A bitter August for 2 of Japan's finest women golfers.

The only players really happy with their rounds today thus far are Ji-Woo Lee, the leader in the clubhouse at -5 after recovering with 4 birdies in her final 7 holes to salvage a 72, and Bo-Bae Song, who fired a solid 70 to get to -2 and a tie for 14th so far.

More when the final round is complete.

[Update 1 (4:38 am): I should have mentioned that Mayu Hattori is another player who put herself in contention early, getting to -7 with a birdie on the par-3 5th hole, but she also faltered as she hit the back, making 3 straight bogeys to fall off the pace. And Ji-Hee Lee made 2 bogeys down the stretch to fall out of contention a bit later. Mitsuka's own pair came a little later, with the killer coming on the par-3 17th. So it came down to a face-off at the finish between Mi-Jeong Jeon and Miho Koga, who had been making pars since Koga's birdie on the 10th and Jeon's on the 13th. Playing in the penultimate pairing, Jeon was the 1st to close out her round, but she made her 1st bogey since the 4th hole on the par-5 18th. Koga followed up with a clutch par to secure her 2nd victory of season.

1st/-9 Koga (69-68-73)
2nd/-8 Jeon (69-71-71)
3rd/-7 Mitsuka (66-73-73)
4th/-6 Ji-Hee Lee (73-68-72), Satoh (71-70-72)
T6/-5 Ji-Woo Lee (68-74-72), Hyun-Ju Shin (72-69-73), Yuko Saitoh (72-69-73)
T9/-4 Mumi Ohkubo (72-71-72), Yokomine (71-71-73), Hattori (72-69-74)

12th/-3 Esther Lee (73-70-73)
T13/-2 Song (76-71-70), Midori Yoneyama (71-73-73), Hiromi Mogi (75-68-74)
T19/E Chie Arimura (72-69-78), Mie Nakata (69-72-78)
T23/+1 Eun-A Lim (74-72-74), Miki Saiki (73-73-74)
T29/+2 Ayako Uehara (73-74-74), Maiko Wakabayashi (73-72-76), Ueda (72-70-79)
T34/+3 Yun-Jye Wei (76-71-75), Kaori Higo (72-72-78)
T40/+4 Akane Iijima (71-76-76), Erina Hara (73-73-77)
T44/+5 Ritsuko Ryu (76-70-78)
48th/+6 Hiroko Yamaguchi (70-74-81)]

[Update 2 (8:22 am): So here's how the new money list looks:

1. Akiko Fukushima ￥80.67M
2. Mi-Jeong Jeon ￥68.91M
3. Ji-Hee Lee ￥68.28M
4. Miho Koga ￥67.99M
5. Sakura Yokomine ￥52.68M
6. Ayako Uehara ￥49.52M
7. Yuko Mitsuka ￥48.88M
8. Erina Hara ￥45.52M
9. Eun-A Lim ￥44.51M
10. Hyun-Ju Shin ￥43.70M
11. Shiho Oyama ￥41.12M
12. Bo-Bae Song ￥40.26M
13. Shinobu Moromizato ￥40.04M
14. Chie Arimura ￥39.07M
15. Yukari Baba ￥38.80M
16. Akane Iijima ￥37.41M
17. Hiromi Mogi ￥37.39M
18. Yuri Fudoh ￥36.37M
19. Hiroko Yamaguchi ￥34.63M
20. Miki Saiki ￥34.14M
21. Ji-Woo Lee ￥30.73M
22. Esther Lee ￥24.27M
23. Midori Yoneyama ￥22.15M
24. Momoko Ueda ￥19.17M
25. Na Zhang ￥18.06M

Maybe Ueda will stick around for a few more JLPGA events heading into major season. With 2 weeks off on the LPGA and 2 small-purse events in September, she wouldn't miss much if she missed both August and September in the States. But what an unproductive start for her. It's clear there's a real Big 4 in 2008 that she just can't catch. As for the rest, well, she'll need to win a few. We'll see!]

Safeway Classic Saturday: By the Numbers

There are 24 players who have strung together 2 rounds under par at Columbia Edgewater, but only 5 of them have broken 70 twice in the Safeway Classic, led by Helen Alfreddson, who shot her 2nd straight 67 but made her 1st and only bogey of the tournament on the par-5 7th to get to -10. The other 4 are Sophie Gustafson (-9), whose only 2 bogeys in the tournament came on the 16th and 17th holes to drop her from 1-up to 1-down to her counterywoman, Kelli Kuehne (-7), who's made plenty of mistakes this weekend but even more birdies, Paula Creamer (-7), whose 3rd bogey of the tournament came in the midst of a 5-birdie run in her last 12 holes, and Leta Lindley (-6), who's also only made 3 birdies all tournament.

If any of them can put together another sub-70 round Sunday, the tournament is likely to be theirs. 54 holes is a lot to play without coming closer to the tournament average in number of birdies per round, which has to be extraordinarily high this week. If none of them can overcome the law of averages, they'll get passed like, well, like Angela Park (-5), whose 66 yesterday is still has the low round at Columbia Edgewater of the week, but who dropped from 1st to T12 with her roller-coaster 73, which included 4 birdies, 3 bogeys, and a double bogey. Park's example looms before the 3 precision players and perhaps even more the 2 bombers among the top contenders. If even she can go from flawless to shaky, what of them?

So if these 5 can't warp probabilities in their favor, the winner will come from someone who's already played well this week but who gets a very hot hand tomorrow. That's potentially very good news for Karrie Webb, who's made a double bogey each round, including 1 on her final hole yesterday that dropped her to -5 for the tournament, and Lorena Ochoa, who bogeyed 2 of her last 3 holes to stall out 5 back. Maybe even a bomber like Jee Young Lee (-6), who's only made 1 bogey and 1 double the entire tournament, could step up if the 2 ahead of her fall down. Or perhaps Na Yeon Choi (-4), who's made fewer mistakes than many of the leaders but has been held to only 6 birdies in her 2 rounds thus far, could figure out how to go low at Columbia Edgewater. We'll see how she responds to the uncharacteristic absence of Rookie of the Year race leader Ya Ni Tseng, who birdied 3 holes in a row late on the front but fell 1 shot below the cut line as she couldn't find another the rest of her round.

That's the beauty of 54-hole tournament golf: there are 11 players within 4 shots of the lead, 20 players within 5 shots, and 30 within 6 on a day the leaders have no margin for error. So while the odds of a back 9 free-for-all are much higher than the final 4 pulling away from the chase pack, literally anything can happen!

Let's take a quick look at a few other numbers.

Million-Dollar Club: Alfreddson and Choi are making strong bids to join it this week. Jeong Jang (-1), Suzann Pettersen (-2), and Eun-Hee Ji (-2) will need strong moves tomorrow to get significantly closer.

ADT Championship: With 11 qualifying spots left, only #1 Angela Park (-5), #2 Cristie Kerr (-6), and #3 Hee-Won Han (-4) are consolidating their claims. #4 Ji Young Oh, #5 In-Kyung Kim, and #16 Momoko Ueda didn't enter the field (Ueda is playing right now in Japan), #10 Jin Joo Hong didn't start the tournament, #7 Meena Lee withdrew after a 1st-round 78, and #6 Nicole Castrale, #8 Ai Miyazato, #9 Se Ri Pak, #12 Giulia Sergas, #14 Stacy Prammanasudh, #17 Shi Hyun Ahn, and #18 Christina Kim all missed the cut. So Sunday represents a great opportunity for #11 Jane Park (-1), #13 Sun Young Yoo (-1), #20 Morgan Pressel (E), and especially #15 rookie Hee Young Park (-5), #21 rookie Shanshan Feng (-4), and #19 Junior Mint Kristy McPherson (-4) to make up some serious ground on those ahead of them.

Asian Swing: The top 50 on the money list will be eligible for the LPGA's second season of limited-field events in Asia this fall. Making a bid to go travelling are #60 Shanshan Feng (-4), #58 Diana D'Alessio (-4), #54 Allison Fouch (-2), and #57 Pat Hurst (-1). If Feng can put her 3rd blistering Sunday of the season together, then, this will be a fantastic week for her. To get in the top 50 this season, you'l definitely have to make more than $300K, probably more than $350K, and maybe even more than $375K. The good news for those already above these marks is that there's a huge drop-off of over $100K between #53 Natalie Gulbis and Feng. The bad news is that with 4 full-field events to go, $100K is not that much money for someone with a hot hand.

Category 1: It's the priority status everyone wants--guaranteed access to just about any event on the 2009 schedule (barring majors and limited-field ones). #80 Marisa Baena didn't help her cause when she pulled a Michelle Wie and got DQed yesterday for failing to sign her scorecard. #81 Meredith Duncan bogeyed her last hole to fall back to E, but fortunately for her her 75 was just good enough to keep her playing later today. #82 Na On Min fired a bogey-free 68 to also make the cut on the number. #87 Dorothy Delasin birdied 2 of her last 3 holes to get to -3 (T31), while #88 Eva Dahloff made 4 birdies in an 11-hole stretch in the middle of her round to do the same. But none of them are in as good shape as #86 Kelli Kuehne, who has a legitimate chance to win this thing. Everyone is looking to break that magic $150K barrier, which still looks pretty safe to me. We'll see who gets there--and whether that's good enough--soon enough.

Category 11: Finishing between #81 and #100 on the money list is roughly the equivalent of making the top 20 at Q-School, so there's little incentive for players even at the bottom of that span to move up. But what a difference between #100 and #101 (Category 15)--less so in 2009, as only those who get battlefield promotions on the Futures Tour or who choose an unattractive 1-time career exemption, than afterwards, when those who didn't make the top 80 in the previous season but did make the top 40 2 seasons before fall down the priority totem pole from Category 1A to Category 12. #106 Julieta Granada (-3) can make a nice move this week if she plays as well Sunday as she did in her bogey-free 68 Saturday. #108 Charlotte Mayorkas (-1) and #109 Kim Hall (E) are also looking to move up the money list in a week in which many near them missed the cut. The magic number here may well be $100K, although it could go as high as $125K if a lot of people get hot at the end of the season.

There are always races within races as the number of full-field events dwindles. It'll be interesting to see who best handles the pressure tomorrow and the next 2 months.

[Update 1 (5:02 am): Go-Kimmie-Go from Seoul Sisters.com followed Eun-Hee Ji and shows how much of a difference putting makes on tour, while Verdant Garden followed Jimin Kang, Jee Young Lee, and Karrie Webb before switching to Hee Young Park, Song-Hee Kim, and Kelli Kuehne. Much better reading than the AP story from both.]

[Update 2 (10:43 am): For a concise yet comprehensive overview of where things stand after 36 holes, Hound Dog's 2nd-round recap can't be beat.]

CAT Ladies Saturday: ...Other Cats Will Play

With her bogey-free 68, Miho Koga takes a 2-shot lead into the final round of the CAT Ladies over 1st-round leader Yuko Mitsuka (who could only manage an even-par 73 today) and dark horse Saiki Fujita (who matched Mitsuka's 66 from yesterday). But the trio shouldn't look over their shoulders, for close on their heels are a gaggle of great golfers, led by #3 on the money list Mi-Jeong Jeon (-6 after a solid 71) and #2 Ji-Hee Lee (-5 after a bogey-free 69, capped off by a closing 33).

1st/-9 Koga (69-68)
T2/-7 Fujita (73-66), Mitsuka (66-73)
3rd/-6 Jeon (69-71)
T5/-5 Lee (73-68), Hyun-Ju Shin (72-69), Chie Arimura (72-69), Mayu Hattori (72-69), Mie Nakata (69-72), and 3 others

Shin and Hattori both had bogey-free rounds, but it was the latter who had the 2nd-lowest front-side score, a 32, which was outdone only by Fujita's sizzling 31.

Lurking at -4 are Momoko Ueda (who shot a bogey-free 70) and Sakura Yokomine (who came back with 3 birdies in her last 6 holes for her 2nd straight 71).

T13/-4 Ueda (72-70), Yokomine (71-71), Ji-Woo Lee (67-74)
T17/-3 Hiromi Mogi (75-68), Esther Lee (73-70)
T21/-2 Kaori Higo (72-72), Midori Yoneyama (71-73), Hiroko Yamaguchi (70-74)
T27/-1 Maiko Wakabayashi (73-72)
T31/E Ritsuko Ryu (76-70), Eun-A Lim (74-72), Erina Hara (73-73), Miki Saiki (73-73)
T40/+1 Bo-Bae Song (76-71), Yun-Jye Wei (76-71), Ayako Uehara (73-74), Akane Iijima (71-76)

Lee was right in the hunt until making 3 bogeys in her closing 8 holes--she keeps having trouble completing her metamorphosis from JLPGA mouse to cat. Mogi followed up her 32 on the front more solidly to vault into the top 20. Lim, meanwhile, went out in 33, but couldn't maintain the pace. While Song and Wei both went just enough under par in their closing holes to make the cut, they couldn't match Ryu's back-9 33, which tied Ji-Hee Lee for the best score on the side. By contrast, Uehara shot a 40 on the back but just made the cut, as did Iijima, who bogeyed 2 of her last 3 holes.

Others were not so fortunate:

T51/+2 Michiko Hattori (74-74)
T58/+3 Yukari Baba (78-71)
T63/+4 Yuki Ichinose (73-77)
T89/+8 Na Zhang (78-76)

Who will be more fortunate after tomorrow's round? Will Mi-Jeong Jeon find a way to become the JLPGA's 1st 3-time winner of 2008? Will Miho Koga, Yuko Mitsuka, Ji-Hee Lee, Hyun-Ju Shin, or Chie Arimura become the 4th repeat winner on tour this season? Will Saiki Fujita, Mie Nakata, or Mayu Hattori join the JLPGA's big cats? Will Sakura Yokomine find a way to successfully defend her title? Or will Momoko Ueda get her 2nd win of the season?

Safeway Classic Friday: Survival of the Fittest Time

It's survival of the fittest time at the Safeway Classic. On a day filled with thrills and spills for most of the field, 3 players are making it look easy as they head into their final holes. Angela Park is -6 through 15 bogey-free holes, while Sophie Gustafson is -5 with 2 holes on the front left to play to extend her own bogey-free streak and Helen Alfreddson is -4 with 3 left to do the same.

But bogey-free rounds have been the definite exception today. 2 rounds in particular--one fantastic and one disappointing--exemplify the scoring trends, with their exaggerated form standing in for less dramatic swings. Co-leader in the clubhouse Kelli Kuehne started the day double bogey-par-bogey but bounced back with 8 birdies in her final 13 holes for a gritty 67. Rookie of the Year race leader Ya Ni Tseng, meanwhile, twice followed up a double bogey with a bogey, but birdied 3 of her final 7 holes to salvage a scrappy 76. With Tseng playing for nothing but pride tomorrow and Kuehne playing to advance up the money list into the top 80 that will get their pick of tournaments in 2009 (she currently sits at #86 with just over $101K in winnings to her name thus far this season), we'll definitely see what these 2 are made of.

But that's true of most everyone in the field. Whether fighting to qualify for the ADT Championship, the Asian Swing, the top 80, or the top 100 of the money list, a lot is at stake for everyone, not just those trying to catch Lorena and Annika at the top of the leaderboard or join the million-dollar club. More on the lesser-known players after I put my girls to bed.

[Update 1 (8/23/08, 6:38 am): While we're waiting for Hound Dog's 1st-round recap, I'll note that Annika's webmaster has a funny post on her -1 round yesterday, which really captures the excitement of attending your 1st professional tournament. Verdant Garden gives a veteran's insight into Jeong Jang's, Hee-Won Han's, Jane Park's, and Angela Park's rounds over at Seoul Sisters.com.]

[Update 2 (6:48 am): LPGA.com's notes and interviews are interesting, as always. Didn't know Stephanie Louden was one of the tour's new moms, for instance. Hee Young Park is excited to be going to Korea next week. Sophie Gustafson and Liz Janangelo both had bad driving range sessions but played well anyway. Paula Creamer mentions that the putting greens were much slower than the actual greens.]

[Update 3 (6:45 pm): Whoops, imoto turned off the computer just as I was finishing off a long update, so I lost it (blogger doesn't save automatically when you're just editing a post). Then we had to get ready to go to onechan's Japanese school in Buffalo. So I think I'll just link to Hound Dog and try to recapture what was lost in my Saturday post.]

Paging Sal Johnson

Via Jason Wulterkens at The Primary Cut, I came across the latest from Sal Johnson of Golf Observer on Michelle Wie. Unlike last week, when Johnson had a terrible point about the LPGA's treatment of Wie and muddled his way to a retraction of it, this week he has an eminently sensible point--Wie should submit her entry to 1 or more sectional qualifiers for the LPGA's Q-School--but managed to muddy it with errors of fact and logic, not to mention ignorance of the new criteria for entry into LPGA tournaments for 2009. In fact, Wie has more options than Johnson thinks.

But first, Johnson's gaffes:

1) "What is odd about Reno was the fact that Wie could of [sic] flown over to England instead and tried to qualify for the Ricoh Women's British Open. 18 spots were open and the way Wie was playing the odds were in her favor. But she chose not to and basically wasted a week by going off to Reno." Untrue. As Brent Kelly of About.com has documented, Wie had withdrawn from the WBO pre-qualifying tournament after she made the cut at the Jamie Farr LPGA event. Thus she wasn't eligible to play in the final qualifier the week of the Reno-Tahoe PGA event. Johnson should stop peddling misinformation.

2) "She could play in Europe, they have two dozen events over the year but in most cases the average pure [sic] is under a $1 million dollars so first place pays just around $100,000, small under LPGA standards." Heck, she could play on sponsor exemptions into the LPGA, JLPGA, KLPGA, and LET if she wanted, in the process getting a lot of appearance fees in addition to her winnings abroad, learning how to deal with global travel and different playing conditions, and building her global brand on a firmer foundation of solid golf rather than, well, human lightning rod. It would be harder than making your home on a single tour, but it could be done for a year, especially by someone her age. And if all goes well it could generate more value for Nike and Sony than her doing what U.S. fans and media want her to do. I'm not advocating this one--I'm just saying the global route is a better option than Johnson makes it out to be.

3) "Wie could play in some Future [sic] Tour events, but those are really sparse in prize money." Yeah, but with the battlefield promotion rule the LPGA has just put into place, Wie could get her 3 wins on the Futures Tour and basically be low girl on the high-priority totem pole--she'd be able to get into more events than just by sponsor exemptions and give herself more chances to win (which would give her the option of applying for immediate LPGA membership or waiting till 2010 to exercise the non-member win option should she not do well enough to end up inside the top 80 of the 2009 LPGA money list). Plus, if it takes her 6 FT tournaments to get those 3 wins, even better, as the top 5 from the FT money list are a little higher on the priority totem pole than non-member top 80 finishers.

4) "No matter what, the LPGA could really use a figure like Wie. The Tour has a lot of dark clouds in [sic] the horizon, first in tournaments not being able to get sponsors, thus some are leaving the LPGA. On top of that it's [sic] star base is also leaving...." Certainly, the LPGA would benefit from Wie being on tour as a regular member. But new sponsors and stars always turn up. And it's not like Ochoa is going away tomorrow. 5-6 years is an eternity in golf.

5) "Another problem that is hurting the LPGA is winners from Asia that don't have the appeal value that Michelle Wie has because of language barriers. Since the first of June, Asian's [sic] have won seven of the ten events and this doesn't help drive the LPGA bus in getting not only more fans interested but new sponsors and television networks." Put the adjective "American" in front of Johnson's closing nouns and you might have grounds for an argument, at least. But as it reads, his statement refutes itself. The LPGA's best TV deals are coming out of Asia. LPGA winners like Ji-Yai Shin, Inbee Park, and Eun-Hee Ji are treated like national heroes upon their return to Korea. There are rumors the communist regime in China would love to see a Chinese Se Ri Pak emerge in the next decade. Ai Miyazato is--wait for it--a "rock star" in Japan, while Yuri Fudoh may well be the most significant golfer in Japanese history. Women's golf is tied to national pride, economic development, regional rivalries, and corporate growth across Asia. What's not to like about Asian winners?

Besides, there are plenty of talented and successful young Americans on tour beyond the Blonde Brigade (and how could Johnson have forgotten Morgan Pressel?)--not just the overhyped Brittany Lincicome and Nicole Castrale, but Asian Americans like Stacy Prammanasudh, Christina Kim, and Jane Park, as well. With Stacy Lewis (yay, another blonde!) coming in 2009 and Amanda Blumenherst and Tiffany Joh among others coming in 2010, there's nothing to worry about with respect to the American pipeline to the LPGA. What Johnson should be focusing on is the LPGA's youth movement. It's hot young stars who drive more girls to the game, which is the bottom line for future American success on tour. Wie is a part of that--a big part--but not even close to the only part. And the whole is bigger than any part.

6) "We just have to hope that Wie, her parents and anyone with influence (Ms. Bivens are you reading this) will be able to bring this to light and help Michelle through this tough time. Yes Q-School is a painful moment for anyone, but in reality it's a split second in time and even a failure would not be a drastic setback for Wie who does have other options like being a student at Stanford." What's so painful about Q-School? (Besides, well, everything about it.) Seriously, Johnson shouldn't give in to the notion that it's demeaning to go through Q-School. Ai Miyazato did just fine there, setting a record matched only by Jane Park last year. If Wie were to break their record, it would put an exclamation point on her return to the top rank of the women's game.

Jason adds on his own misguided addendum to Johnson's post when he claims the LPGA is in "dire financial straits." Sure, the LPGA is having a hard time filling out its domestic schedule, not very good news when they're also trying to negotiate a new tv contract. But as Geoff Shackelford and Ryan Ballengee have both noted, following an article by Bill Huffman, the PGA is in potentially bigger trouble, given the struggles of the U.S. financials sector. And the LPGA has a better relationship with existing Asian tours than the PGA does, which gives it a leg up on becoming a truly global tour (and following the money around the globe).

But the bottom line is that Wie should think through her options--Q-School now, Futures Tour for at least part of next year, or global jetsetter in '09--and talk them out with those she trusts. And she shouldn't let anyone else--not her parents, her agent, her coach, or her sponsors--make the final decision for her. Much less Sal Johnson.

U.S. Women's Softball Feels U.S. Women Golfers' Pain

Check out the tone of the AP story on Japan's amazing upset of the U.S. Women's softball team, denying the powerhouse their 4th straight Olympic gold on the strength of pitcher Yukiko Ueno's heroics.

The U.S arrived in China determined to put on a show of power, precision and poise. And except for a tense, nine-inning 4-1 win over Ueno and Japan in the semifinals, the Americans had done just that. That game was by far their toughest test in the tournament--until they met Ueno again in the final.

"She just beat us," U.S. starter Cat Osterman said. "I'm not hanging my head too much about it."

One of the few players in the field who could win a roster spot on the U.S. squad, Ueno stopped the Americans on a cool, drizzly night. The day before, she had pitched 21 innings--the equivalent of three complete games--to get her team to the gold-medal match.

Less than 24 hours later she was back on the mound and appeared no worse for it. The 26-year-old Ueno was handed the ball again by coach Haruka Saito, who didn't have many other options against the U.S. team's relentless top-to-bottom attack.

Though it's rare for a pitcher at this level to work consecutive days, Ueno's performance can stand with any in these games. Not only was it physically demanding in China's thick air, but she couldn't afford a misstep in two matchups with the U.S. or against the free-swinging Aussies, who won bronze.

"This isn't how it was supposed to end," said one U.S. player. Maybe by the time softball returns to the Olympics, the next generation of U.S. softballers won't enter international competition with that kind of presumption of dominance. Tell Morgan Pressel about it. (Or, for that matter, tell the Brazilian women's soccer team. The U.S. upset them for the gold. Globalization makes domination all the more difficult to maintain. For anyone.)

CAT Ladies Friday: When Some Cats Are Away...

Actually, there are several big cats away from the CAT Ladies JLPGA event this week--most notably, 2008 money-list leader Akiko Fukushima and career money-list leader Yuri Fudoh. That doesn't mean that 1st-round leader Yuko Mitsuka is a mouse--she only has the 2nd-lowest winning score on the JLPGA this season, -16 at the Nichirei PGM Ladies to Erina Hara's -21 last week. What mouse could make as many eagles as bogeys (2) on its way to a 65? Mitsuka is #8 on the JLPGA money list, but #3 Mi-Jeong Jeon and #4 Miho Koga are looking for their 3rd and 2nd wins of the season, respectively, and they're only 2 back. If they're mice, they're definitely roaring this week. As is Ji-Woo Lee, who's been showing signs of wanting to morph into a cat the last month or so. They're certainly happy that Mitsuka's bogeys came on the 17th and 18th--otherwise, her lead would be almost insurmountable. Imagine how happy big cats like Momoko Ueda and Sakura Yokomine are to be only 5 and 6 back, respectively.

Let's take a look at the top 10 and notables to see who else is roaring, and why.

1st/-7 Mitsuka (66)
2nd/-5 Lee (68)
T3/-4 Jeon, Koga, Mie Nakata (69)
T6/-3 Hiroko Yamaguchi, Tomoko Kusakabe, Yoko Inoue, Kaori Aoyama (70)
T10/-2 Yokomine, Akane Iijima, Midori Yoneyama, and 4 others (71)

T17/-1 Ueda, Hyun-Ju Shin, Chie Arimura, Kaori Higo, Mayu Hattori (72)
T30/E Ji-Hee Lee, Hara, Ayako Uehara, Miki Saiki, Esther Lee, Maiko Wakabayashi, Yuki Ichinose (73)
T45/+1 Eun-A Lim (74)

T62/+2 Hiromi Mogi (75)
T65/+3 Bo-Bae Song, Yun-Jye Wei, Michiko Hattori, Ritsuko Ryu (76)
T82/+5 Na Zhang, Yukari Baba (78)

There were a lot of eagles out there today (including 1 by Yokomine) but only 1 bogey-free round (Inoue's), so there's likely to be plenty of volatility on the leaderboard this weekend. With Shiho Oyama and Shinobu Moromizato also sitting this one out, the cat-and-mouse games will be even more intense among those with a chance to win this thing on Sunday!

The LPGA's Tournament Eligibility Priority List for 2009

Thanks to recent commenter Sekar, and picking up where Hound Dog and Brent Kelley left off, I was able to track down and now share the 3 July 2008 memo laying out the priority list for entering standard eligibility LPGA tournaments in 2009.

There are 21 categories, most of which seem designed to mirror the rules and results for this season. Sure, the top 90 has been winnowed down to a top 80 who get first dibs on any non-major/non-limited-field event they want to enter in 2009. And, starting in 2010, those who finished in the top 40 2 seasons before will drop from very high on 2009 priority list (category #1a) to almost the bottom of the high-priority categories (category #12). But much remains the same. Major winners (category #3) still will get very high priority for the next 5 seasons after their wins; those who win 3 times in the same year (category #5a) still will get 5 seasons and only slightly lower priority-standing; anyone who wins even 1 event still will get high priority for the next 3 seasons (category #6--although starting in 2010 it'll go down to 2); and any member who gets a top 10 still will get into the next standard event, even if their priority-standing wouldn't otherwise have gotten them into it.

Still, there are a few innovations and reorderings apparently designed to reward members playing well in 2009 who didn't have that great a 2007 or 2008 (as well as non-members and those who weren't playing professionally in previous seasons).

1) There is now a battlefield promotion for players who get their 3rd win in the same season on the Futures Tour (category #13). I wonder if those who get priority status this way would be considered LPGA members (and potentially LPGA rookies) in that season or not? I assume not--that their rookie year would come the following year if it hadn't already come--but haven't seen anything official to that effect.

This one would have benefitted Vicky Hurst and Mindy Kim. They would still have had to watch their position on the Futures Tour money list and do their best to ensure they came in the top 5 at the end of the FT season (category #9), but they could definitely have entered more LPGA events than they actually were able to get into. And if they had done well and these rules were in place, they could have gotten even higher-priority standing--not just by finishing in the top 80 on the money list, but with an LPGA win at any time in the season.

2) Anyone who wins gets high priority for the rest of the season (category #5)--even non-members who join the LPGA will benefit from this priority-standing. Non-members who choose not to join the year of their win still get high priority in the following year (category #7). And by becoming LPGA members, they get the same category #6 bonus as everyone else gets in the following years, as I read the rules, at least.

Even this year, Ji-Yai Shin could have applied to become an LPGA member after her Women's British Open win, but under the soon-to-be-superseded rules, she would have had very low standing when it came to actually trying to get into events. If the new system had been in place this season, she'd have found it quite easy to get into just about as many events as she wanted if she joined the LPGA immmediately after her WBO win. This category would have been open to Hurst and Kim from the Futures Tour and to unaffiliated professionals like Stacy Lewis and Michelle Wie who wanted to get immediate high priority into LPGA events following a win, provided they were willing to become LPGA members.

3) Any LPGA member in the top 40 on the money list right after the 7th, 14th, and 21st events of the season gets fairly high priority (category #8) for entering any of the next 7 events on the schedule. Those in the top 40 right after the 28th event are basically guaranteed to get into all the standard events for the rest of the season from the 30th on.

What's nice about this category is that LPGA members can get into as many events as they want so long as they can get and stay in the top 40. It wouldn't have benefitted non-members like Hurst, Kim, Lewis, and Wie had it been implemented this season, but it gives anyone from the top 125 of the LPGA money list, top 10 of the Futures Tour money list, and top 40 from Q-School a fighting chance to finish in the top 80 on the 2009 money list.

4) Any LPGA member who's won at least twice in the previous 4 seasons (category #4) gets very high priority (right behind major winners and just ahead of current-year winners).

This one replaces the 4-year exemption for anyone who wins twice in a single season, so more players are eligible for it, but it ends up being a shorter time on the high-priority list, as eligibility ends 4 years after their 1st win. So Seon Hwa Lee gets 4 years of high-priority standing for her 2 wins this season. Mi Hyun Kim and Brittany Lincicome got 1 win each in 2007 and 2006, so they'll be in this high-priority category through the 2010 season--good for them, as Kim is dealing with injuries and Lincicome is mired in a terrible slump. Hee-Won Han, who won twice in 2006, also has insurance in case of a bad 2009. Stacy Prammanasudh, who won in 2005 and 2007, has the same insurance, but because of category #6. Pat Hurst and Meena Lee, who won in 2005 and 2006, are thus in for the 2009 season, no matter how badly they do in 2008 (although with over $200K in winnings already, Hurst is already a lock for the top 80, while Lee is just outside the top 30 already).

Now, if Louise Friberg, Leta Lindley, Eun-Hee Ji, Ji Young Oh, Helen Alfreddson, or Katherine Hull were to notch a 2nd win this season, she, too, would have very high-priority status, regardless of her place on the money list, over the next 4 seasons. But if Meaghan Francella, Silvia Cavalleri, Young Kim, Nicole Castrale, Natalie Gulbis, Maria Hjorth, or Momoko Ueda were to win this season, they'd only have high priority for 3 more seasons, because their first win came in 2007. And if 2006 winners Joo Mi Kim, Meena Lee, Juli Inkster, Sung Ah Yim, Jin Joo Hong, or Julieta Granada were to win in 2008, they'd really be benefitting from category #6, which gives them fairly high priority for the 3 seasons following a win. And for those whose last win came in 2005--Jennifer Rosales, Wendy Ward, Carin Koch, Jimin Kang, Marisa Baena, Heather Young, Soo-Yun Kang, Nicole Perrot, Jee Young Lee, or Christina Kim--the same holds, although everyone except Perrot is already inside the top 80 on the money list (but Young, Rosales, and Baena have their work cut out to stay there). So basically this category offers an extra benefit only to those who get their 2 wins in the same season, at least until 2013, when you could have won in 2009 and 2010 but had terrible years in 2011 and 2012 and still get into just about any standard tournament you were interested in playing.

5) Those who fall between #81 and #100 on the 2008 money list get roughly equal status with the top 20 2008 Q-School qualifiers (category #11). The Q-School winner gets top priority in this category, then #81 on the money list, then the Q-School runner-up, then #82 on the money list, and so on.

Only very rarely would those at the bottom of the ensuing priority list not get into a standard tournament from this category. You'd need 25 players to enter under categories #2 through #10 for the 40th player in this category to get knocked out of a usual 144-player field. This levels the playing field for the "bottom 20" LPGA players and "top 20" Q-School graduates.

6) Those who fall to #101 through #125 on the 2008 LPGA money list (category #15) and who get into #6 through #10 on the 2008 Futures Tour (category #17) thus have every reason to enter the 2008 Q-School. If they do decently and finish 21st through 30th (category #16), the Futures Tour players at least have moved up a category. But if they do well and finish in the top 20, they move up to category #11.

Here's why that matters a lot for these players in particular: all the players in categories #14 through #20 get their priority status reordered based on their money list position after the 7th, 14th, 21st, and 28th events of the 2009 season. But the highest they can rise is having a lower priority than those who win a Futures Tour battlefield promotion (category #13). That is, unless they get all the way into the top 40 of the current money list at these checkpoints and enter category #8 (see #3 above), they'll always have lower standing than Q-School grads, those between #81 and #100 on the previous season's money list, and even those with hot hands on the Futures Tour that season. As it should be.

7) The new rules place an incentive (category #2) and disincentive (category #14) for those players who are considering applying for a 1-time exemption based on their position on the career money list. Those in the top 20 can still get 2 years of very high-priority status, but those in the top 40 who exercise their option won't be able to use their top 20 exemption and will only get lower priority than Futures Tour players with battlefield promotions, with no chance to go higher unless they win or fight their way into the top 40 of the money list during that season and only that season to improve their standing by finishing in the top 80, top 100, or top 125 of the money list.

The effect is to give incentives to those outside the top 20 on the career money list who have hit hard times to give the Futures Tour and even Q-School a try before exercising their 1 lifetime exemption. If you see any hope at all of breaking into the top 20, you're better off saving the top 40 exemption as a last resort, to be used only after you've exhausted your FT and Q-School options.

8) Those who have won a tournament in the last 20 years will get even lower priority than those who exercise the 1-time top 40 career money list exemption (category #15a is being phased out after 2010 and will be replaced by category #19--which comes after those who finish 31st through 40th in Q-School [category #18]--and category #21, the lowest-priority one).

So besides the usual 2 spots for sponsor exemptions, the open invitation to Hall of Famers, and the chance for local qualifying, those on the downside of a long career will have little incentive or ability to get into more than a few events a year. This, too, will help open up more spots for players in the LPGA pipeline, young guns, and mid-career vets who have a legitimate chance to compete at a higher level for the first time or again.

9) There is a cool little loophole that I had speculated about in July. Tournament organizers may open their local qualifiers to non-members.

If this rule had been in place this year, I wonder if any of the closing tournaments of the year after the Canadian Women's Open would have encouraged Michelle Wie to take another shot at getting into the top 80 of the money list as a non-member (category #10). Or if Stacy Lewis would be trying Monday qualifying of the rest of the season and not hoping for more sponsor exemptions than what remains on her plate already.

So what do you all think of this priority list?

[Update 1 (8/28/08, 10:52 pm): Hound Dog likes it.]

[Update 2 (1/12/09, 3:41 pm): I'm still not convinced the tournament organizers at Q-School interpreted them correctly. I'd like to see a rewrite of certain parts of the rules.]

[Update 3 (4/11/09, 12:44 am): Since this page is still getting a lot of hits, it's worth updating it again to note that Hound Dog has recently offered a great clarification of how the priority list reordering after the 7th event of the season could play out after the Corona.]

Safeway Classic Preview/Predictions/Pairings

The LPGA takes a 2-week summer vacation after this week's Safeway Classic, but with the new criteria for membership now officially in place, even smaller tournaments like this one take on added significance, which may help explain why, as Hound Dog notes in his preview, the field is so strong for this 54-hole event. But then it has a prestigious list of past winners, from Kathy Whitworth, Amy Alcott, Nancy Lopez, Ayako Okamato, Betsy King, Patty Sheehan, and Dottie Pepper to Juli Inkster, Annika Sorenstam, Mi Hyun Kim, Hee-Won Han, and Lorena Ochoa. So Portland has always been a popular stop on tour.

If you're thinking of giving the Pakpicker a whirl this week, keep in mind that the greens should be holding nicely, the rough and trees penalizing errant drives severely, and the many tournament threads at Seoul Sisters.com giving the inside scoop regularly. I've really been enjoying the observations and photos (including a link to a separate photoblog) from those attending the event's last stand at Columbia Edgewater before it moves to Pumpkin Ridge.

Taking into account Golf Observer's historical results, then, here are my picks:

1. Creamer
2. Lee Seon Hwa
3. Ochoa
4. Han Hee-Won
5. Park Inbee
6. Choi Na Yeon
7. Jang Jeong
8. Tseng Ya Ni
9. Sorenstam
10. Pak Se Ri
11. Pressel
12. Miyazato Ai

Alts: Ji Eun-Hee, Yoo Sun Young, Kim Song-Hee

The pairings are worth attending to this week in particular, not just because of whom the organizers think are most likely to win, but also because of the races for the top 50 of the money list (who are eligible for the Asian Swing) and the top 80 (who will have the equivalent of fully exempt status next season).

The late-morning prime-time quadrant off the 1st tee is absolutely packed:

Start Time: 8:32 AM
Hee Young Park
Rachel Hetherington
Giulia Sergas

Start Time: 8:43 AM
Ai Miyazato
Candie Kung
Meaghan Francella

Start Time: 8:54 AM
Eun-Hee Ji
Jeong Jang
Katherine Hull

Start Time: 9:05 AM
Lorena Ochoa
Ya Ni Tseng
Natalie Gulbis

Start Time: 9:16 AM
Annika Sorenstam
Inbee Park
Paula Creamer

If Gulbis were playing just a little bit better a little more consistently, the penultimate pairing would be as power-packed as the last one. But I'm particularly interested in seeing how Jang handles her return to competitive golf and how Hull performs after her 1st career victory on tour (check out her thoughtful interview when you get a chance!). And of course I'm rooting for Ai-chan to get back on track after a disappointing missed cut last week.

Almost as impressive is the early-afternoon prime-time quadrant going off the 10th tee:

Start Time: 12:10 PM
Brittany Lang
Sung Ah Yim
Wendy Ward

Start Time: 12:21 PM
Na Yeon Choi
Christina Kim
Seon Hwa Lee

Start Time: 12:32 PM
Se Ri Pak
Sophie Gustafson
Stacy Prammanasudh

Start Time: 12:43 PM
Morgan Pressel
Karen Stupples
Karrie Webb

Start Time: 12:54 PM
Helen Alfredsson
Nicole Castrale
Suzann Pettersen

Except for the first group, everyone in this quadrant have been playing very well of late, even if the results haven't always been what they've wanted or expected. The Choi/Kim/Lee one is the one I'd follow, though.

Among those going off the back in the morning are a number of possible contenders:

Start Time: 8:32 AM
Song-Hee Kim
Jin Joo Hong
Catriona Matthew

Start Time: 8:43 AM
Lorie Kane
Brittany Lincicome
Angela Stanford

Start Time: 8:54 AM
Teresa Lu
Maria Hjorth
Young Kim

Start Time: 9:05 AM
Hee-Won Han
Laura Diaz
Michele Redman

Start Time: 9:16 AM
Liselotte Neumann
Sun Young Yoo
Silvia Cavalleri

If Kim, Lu, and Yoo have good driving weeks, expect them to be in the mix Sunday. Han and Diaz lead the phalanx of dangerous mid-career vets, any one of whom could win this thing.

Even some of those going off the front in the afternoon could win this week:

Start Time: 12:10 PM
Pat Hurst
Lindsey Wright
Meena Lee

Start Time: 12:21 PM
Leta Lindley
Cristie Kerr
Christa Johnson

Start Time: 12:32 PM
Julieta Granada
Louise Friberg
Minea Blomqvist

Start Time: 12:43 PM
Jee Young Lee
Brandie Burton
Hilary Lunke

Start Time: 12:54 PM
Jane Park
Angela Park
Grace Park

Even though Meena Lee is the kind of straight shooter that could excel this week and I'd love to see Jee Young Lee exceed my expectations, I'd definitely be following that Park trio.

Others who could well do very well this week include Shi Hyun Ahn (the 1st off the 10th tee), Katie Futcher (the next-to-last off the 1st tee), Jennifer Rosales (1:16 pm off #10), and even struggling NYer Danielle Downey (1:27 pm off #1). Speaking of NYers, Moira Dunn is going off #1 in a great pairing with Il Mi Chung and Allison Fouch at 7:37 am. She's coming off a great Canadian Women's Open (which vaulted her ahead of Ai Miyazato in Golfweek's Sagarin Performance Index) and I have high hopes for her to stay in the top 80 on the money list this season. It's not the end of the world if she doesn't, because basically the top 100 on the list get high priority when it comes to entering 2009 events (#80 on the money list becomes #81 on the priority list, right after the Q-School winner, #81 becomes #83, right after the Q-School runner-up, and so on down to #100, who becomes #101 after the 20th place Q-School finisher). But if Moira can reach that magic $150K mark sooner rather than later, I'll be breathing a lot easier.

V-Day: On Clubs, Grooves, and Balls

Picking up where Geoff Shackelford left off a little while ago on this new rules change for grooves in irons and wedges, I've got a tangentially-related story to tell. It involves me shooting an even-par round of 34 on the back 9 of the Easiest Course in the World for only the 10th time in my life while playing 2 very different kinds of golf balls concurrently. But it's really a personal history of golf equipment. And a meditation on the difference between competitive golf and social golf. And a report on the mental side of the game. Yeah, it's that kind of tangentially-related story. Sorry.

There is a relation, nevertheless. The revolution in golf equipment that this rules change is a very partial response to came about midway through my playing career, as I finished playing college golf. As I've been keeping my key golf stats from 1984-2004, back when I was playing regularly and, at the beginning and end of the span, regularly playing tournament golf, I have some data to back up my memories. And, I think, to support the case that the rules change won't have a big impact on scoring for anyone but the most elite amateurs and professionals.

When I first started playing golf seriously in high school, my woods were made of wood, my irons were forged, and my ball was a Titleist DT. I was a short hitter, made shorter by the fact that I didn't like the driver in my set and instead used a 2-wood off the tee. So I relied on my fairway woods, wedges, and putter to keep my scores respectable. I was the classic kind of precision/finesse player, which served me well on Hamilton College's short, par-35 9-hole course that I played most often, but didn't travel all that well all that often to Colgate University's Seven Oaks, the Robert Trent Jones-designed gem in central NY that I played with my dad and brother on the weekends. I didn't begin to experiment with metal woods until college and eventually settled on one of the original TaylorMade Burners for my driver (which looked like today's 7-woods), but it still didn't change the kind of player I was all that much. In fact, when I played shorter courses, I switched to balata Titleists, which didn't fly as far as the DTs I was used to but which gave me greater touch around the greens, helped me stop my irons sooner on approach shots, and generally allowed me to better work the ball because of their softer covers and higher spin rates. I was still such a short and low-ball hitter that I vividly recall switching to a different metal driver (a hand-me-down from my younger brother, who had moved on to a newer model years before) the week before I was to play Bethpage Black from the back tees in the ECAC Championship, in hopes of carrying the ball further off the tee. (That didn't work out so well; I couldn't reach most of the fairways, had to hack out of the heavy rough usually still short of my playing partners, and usually faced a difficult fairway wood shot to the green that would more often than not find its way back into trouble. I went 102-98 and finished dead last.)

So although I dropped my scoring average at Hamilton from just under 50 in 1984 to just under 40 in 1990 (and my personal bests each year from 43 in '83 to 35 in '90) and at Seven Oaks from around 90 in 1987 to around 83 in 1990 (and my personal bests from 84 in '87 to 77 in '90), I remained the same kind of golfer throughout the 1980s. I never averaged more than 6 greens in regulation, never came close to averaging a birdie a round, and hardly ever shot 37 or below for 9 holes. In fact, I didn't shoot an even-par 9 until 1990, when I did it twice at Hamilton (one of them coming in the best 18 holes of my life on that course, a 71 with 26 putts, many of which I still remember today).

All that changed fairly dramatically when I switched to the new, larger-headed Titleist driver. I started hitting the ball higher and carrying it much further--and the results were striking. I went from averaging 5.83 greens in regulation in 1990, the previous best summer of my golfing life, to 7.45 in 1991, from .857 birdies per round to 1.062, and from a 39.7 scoring average at Hamilton to 38.5. Most important, I went from shooting 37 or better only 6.5% of the time to 14.8% of the time. The next season, although my GIR went down and my scoring averages levelled off, I averaged 1.32 birdies per round, shot even-par on 5 9-hole rounds, and went under par for the first time with a 34 in mid-July. Even though I would focus on my graduate studies year-round from fall 1992 to spring 1998, I still spent enough time in Clinton in 1993 to lower my Hamilton scoring average another stroke, to 37.43, and shoot my first 33 there; even afterwards, I was able to keep my game respectable while going from averaging over 40 rounds per summer down to less than 7 between 1994 and 1996.

During that time away from competitive golf, 2 major changes occurred, 1 physical and the other technical. I started using Nautilus equipment regularly. As my body changed, I was forced to change my swing, which had been very lower-body, hip-turn, and timing-oriented, to take advantage of my increased upper-body strength. More important, I needed to simplify my swing into something that would be easier to repeat with fewer repetitions. Particularly late in my grad school career, when Tiger was tearing up the amateur circuit and people were beginning to show that his big shoulder turn coupled with a less pronounced hip turn helped him hit the ball so far, I was putting the finishing touches on a set-up and swing that hasn't really changed all that much since. And as I started to play again more regularly in the summer of 1998 after I finished my dissertation--coming close to 30 rounds again for the 1st time since 1993--I moved to Fredonia and discovered the Easiest Course in the World.

Don't get me wrong, Hamilton is a pretty easy course. With 3 par 4s under 325 yards, 3 longer par 4s between 385 and 425 yards (2 of them downhill), 1 short and 1 long par 3 (both uphill), and a short par 5, it has a lot of birdie holes, despite being hilly and having its fair share of trees and water in play. By contrast, the Easiest Course in the World has no water in play, no sand traps, and tree trouble on only a few holes, plus it's very flat. Although it's a couple of hundred yards longer than Hamilton, and has just as tiny greens, it's significantly, well, easier. Only 4 of its 18 holes are really difficult pars (and 3 of them come on the front, which has more birdie holes than the back), its 3 par 5s are all reachable in 2 when the course isn't soaking wet (and for longer hitters than me, even then), and its fairways are wide, rough low, and greens slow. The second I saw it, late in the summer of 1998, I knew I could break 70 there. It took me 3 years to do it--a 68 in late August 2001--and I've only done it 5 times since then, with a low of 66 the following August. But it's definitely the kind of course where I expect to have a chance to go under par almost every time I tee it up--particularly during that stretch between 1999 and 2004 when I was averaging almost 60 rounds a year.

It's no coincidence that I broke 70 for the first time in 2001, for that's the summer that I switched to the Titleist Pro V1. Not only did it go further than the DT--much further--but it was almost as soft as the balata balls I had given up playing in the early '90s. Combined with a shift to a TaylorMade driver, my switch to the Pro V1 allowed me to really attack golf courses for the first time in my life. 2001 was the 1st year my scoring average went under 80, my birdies per round went over 1.37, my GIR average went over 7.5, and I shot 37 or better more than 20% of the time. My best season came the following year, when my scoring average reached its career low of 77.23, my birdies per round a career high of 1.542, my GIR a career high of 8.14, and I shot 37 or better 36.1% of the time. I think it's fair to say that I benefitted from changes to the ball more than any other advancement in golf technology. I went from carrying my drives 200-230 yards in high school to 225-240 yards in college to 240-260 yards in this next phase of my competitive golfing career. And it's not like the changes mattered only on easy, short courses. Playing in the Utica City Amateur at Valley View 7 years between 1991 and 2000, I shot 76 or better once in 14 tries. In the next 4 years I did it 5 times out of 10, with a low of 73 in 2001. I qualified for the New York State Mid-Amateur tournament for the 1st (and only) time in 2002, by which point I had lowered my handicap to a 2.

Admittedly, my putting also improved during this period, due in no small part to my switch to an Odyssey White Hot putter that really fit my eye--and loads of off-season practice during long western NY winters and frozen and muddy springs. My total putts and putts per green in regulation reached career lows during this period. But that could also be an effect of the switch to the Pro V1, not just because I was hitting my approach shots closer to the green and to the hole, but also because I was probably rolling that ball better than others. In 2003 I got married and in 2004 onechan put a dent in my sleep schedule, so my performance dropped off a bit before I basically gave golf up between 2005 and this summer, but I can say for sure that switching from forged irons to Callaway Steelheads in an effort to get more length and accuracy out of my iron play--as well as to specialized wedges (52-degree and 58-degree Vokeys)--as I did in the middle of this stretch, did not have the desired effect. My GIR actually went down and my putting average actually went up, while my birdies per round rate once again fell below 1.35. It was frustration with this step back that made it easier for me to step away first from competitive golf, then from all golf, until this summer.

Late this May was virtually the 1st time I touched my clubs since 2005, when I played all of 4 and a half rounds, so my expectations were very low. I was shocked to find myself making solid contact from my 1st time out. By my 3rd time, I was actually 1-over in my 1st 8 holes before utterly collapsing in the wind. Which brings me to my story. The par-34 back 9 on the Easiest Course in the World has 4 fairly tricky starting holes but 5 fairly easy closing holes. It's flat and wide open, with even fewer trees than on the front, but its greens are tiny and the wind is always up. It's the closest to links golf I've ever played and it's given me fits: I've only shot 1 34 there in 2000, 6 in 2002, and 2 in 2004.

The day I shot my 10th 34 there at the end of last month was the windiest of any of the rounds I've played this year and among the windier days I've played in my life. It was the first time I decided to play by myself and to challenge myself by pitting a 4-year-old Pro V1 against a newer Callaway ball. It was a brief experiment, as I switched to a Nike distance ball that I found near where I lost the Callaway on the 4th hole. But putting my normal ball up against a rock like the Nike ball taught me a lot about my swing and short game that day. The rock definitely went longer and straighter. I actually got over the 2nd par 5 on the front with a 5-wood on my 2nd shot--a hole I rarely reached in the past unless the course was dryer than it had been that day. But I also had a lot less feel around the greens with it. I blew my chip on that hole, a simple little downhill run shot of about 40 feet, a full 15 feet by the hole and missed the birdie putt. For awhile these factors cancelled each other out. I was 3-over with the Pro V1 between the 5th and 12th holes and 1-down to the rock after a 6-foot birdie putt with it on a long par 3 actually found the bottom of the cup. But my 5th 1-putt in a row with the Pro V1 on the next hole, a long par-4 that I tripled with the rock after being right near the green in 2, turned the tide. Even though I hit the remaining 5 greens in regulation with the rock, I was 1-over during that stretch, thanks to 3-putts on a par 5 I hit in 2 and also on the very next hole, a short par 3 with a sloping green. Even though I hit 8 of 14 greens with the rock, I had 27 putts. With the Pro V1, by contrast, I only hit 5 greens in that same stretch (thanks to the wind playing havoc with my approach shots), but I only had 21 putts. I hit 3 greens in a row on the middle of the back, finally making a birdie putt on the very same par 5 I 3-putted with the rock, so I was 1-under on the back heading into the final 2 holes. And I was well aware that I had never gone under par on the back in my life.

This summer I've actually been drawing the ball off the tee, something unheard of in my early-season high school and college days, when bad timing would lead to weak fades and slices as my arms would lag behind my hip turn. But my other early-season nemesis--wedge problems on pitches between 15 and 75 yards--reared its ugly head on the 17th hole. My previous rounds had been sabotaged by fluffed, chunked, even skulled partial-swing wedges and even that day my putter had bailed my pitches out quite often. On 17, I hit my best drive of the year, a nice little draw that started out over the right rough, which the wind helped bring back to the middle of the fairway about 50 yards short of the pin. So of course I fluffed my 3-quarter-swing 52 degree wedge--I decelerated out of fear I had taken too long a backswing. But my short game was so good that day with the Pro V1 that I easily got up and down (tying the rock when I missed a short birdie putt with it).

All I needed was a par on the long 18th, a slight dogleg right with a strong left-to-right helping wind that day, to go under par on the back for the 1st time in my life. So of course I popped up my drive and then missed the green with a 5-wood that the wind pushed further right than I expected (I thought I could draw it in against the prevailing wind), leaving myself a tough chip that I couldn't get within 10 feet of the back left pin. Just like the other 2 birdie chances I couldn't convert on that side, I missed the par save for my 1st bogey with the Pro V1 since the 8th hole. I had made putts of all kinds in that stretch, including an insane 30-foot downhill-sidehiller, but couldn't get any of those 3 in my last 5 holes to fall. The 8th 33 of my life was not meant to be, I guess.

But why didn't I collapse in the wind this time like I had earlier that month? How could I have shot 1 of the best 9-hole rounds of my life in only my 4th or 5th round of the season, a season in which I played every other week rather than every other day? I have to attribute it to getting a better feel for the characteristics of the Pro V1 while playing in a match against the Nike ball. The match itself helped me keep at bay just about all the nervousness that might usually be associated with a run at a 32 or a 33. But it was really the contrast between the 2 balls themselves that helped me the most. On my full swings, I had to choose different clubs on my approach shots (the Nike ball was a half-club to a club longer than the Pro V1), align myself very differently (in anticipation of the lesser wind effect with the Nike ball), and make subtle adjustments to my swing itself. On my pitches, chips, and putts, I felt so much more comfortable with the Pro V1 in the midst of my struggles with the rock. I can't go into any more detail without getting too technical or sounding too mystical, but the bottom line is that after I played through my 2nd foursome on the 9th, I could devote my concentration entirely to the contrasting playing characteristics of the 2 balls.

To pull this tangent back to something approaching a circle, if I had to rank the most significant technological innovations in my golfing career, my list would look like this:

1) Balls
2) Drivers
3) Putters
4) Irons and Wedges

I'd probably rank hybrids #3 if I had been playing any golf the last few years. I definitely want to get a 3-hybrid and retire the Callaway 3-iron, which has been a huge disappointment, but playing as little as I have I've had little inclination to do so. So if I'm playing competitive (or any) golf 6 years from now, I'll probably take the opportunity to upgrade my entire set: move on to Mizuno irons and wedges (the brand I ended up not going with when I made my big failed iron switch earlier this decade), try to find the right mix of woods and hybrids to go with the new irons, and probably try out the new putters while I'm at it to see if I like any better than my White Hot #2. Or maybe by then I'll just be playing virtual golf on the Wii. Who knows? All I know is that if the new rules hurt the longer, wilder players in any way, shape, or form, I'm for them, but I just don't see them having much of an impact on my game.

Looking Ahead, Part 2: The Class of 2009

There are only a few ways to get into the LPGA's class of 2009. Let's review.

Win an LPGA Event
This is how such fine players as Jee Young Lee, Shi Hyun Ahn, and Momoko Ueda joined the LPGA--by winning the event in Korea (as is most often the case) or Japan during the LPGA's Asian Swing. This year, Ji-Yai Shin broke all kinds of records by winning the Women's British Open. Stacy Lewis came just shy of doing the same at the U.S. Women's Open, but she'll have a few more chances to get a win through her remaining sponsors' exemptions into LPGA events. More on Stacy in a second--let's look ahead and predict who from the JLPGA and KLPGA has the best chance to win in Japan and Korea this year.

I've been following the JLPGA pretty closely this season. My latest ranking is a little out of date, what with recent wins by Shinobu Moromizato and Erina Hara, but using it as a benchmark, here are the dozen players I feel have the best chance to win the Mizuno Classic: Mi-Jeong Jeon, Ji-Hee Lee, Akiko Fukushima, Miho Koga, Sakura Yokomine, Shiho Oyama, Yuri Fudoh, Hyun-Ju Shin, Ayako Uehara, Bo-Bae Song, Erina Hara, Shinobu Moromizato. Keep in mind, though, that Moromizato tried the LPGA and met with little success on it, Fukushima had more but gave it up, and Oyama and Fudoh have shown no interest in making the attempt. Jeon and Lee seem pretty comfortable on the JLPGA. That leaves the younger players on my list as the most likely to leave if they win. Yokomine was my pre-season pick to lead the JLPGA this season, but is only just beginning to get her game back after a strong but disappointing start when she let 2 wins slip through her fingers. Koga, Shin, and Song seem to be getting theirs back, as well, after mid-season mini-slumps. Uehara has been up-and-down all season, but has some international experience, while Hara is the hottest player on tour right now. Where they'll be in early November, along with a seriously slumping Miki Saiki, is anyone's guess. As is the question of which of Japan's young guns will try LPGA Q-School. The application deadline for sectional qualifiers is September 9th, so we'll know soon.

From the KLPGA, rookies So-Yeon Ryu, Hye-Yong Choi, and Hye-Young Kim have put themselves in contention quite often, as has last year's rookie of the year Ha-Neul Kim, so if the KLPGA's big 2 of Ji-Yai Shin and Sun-Ju Ahn don't win the Hana Bank/KOLON Championship in October, they might have the best shot for the steal. The KLPGA season resumes at the end of this month and continues through November, so a lot could change in that time. However, if the KLPGA really has a rule that a player isn't allowed to leave the tour for the LPGA until playing a certain number of years on it, the only win that might matter for LPGA fans is one by Ahn.

Finish within the Top 80 on the LPGA Money List
Michelle Wie came short this year because she forgot to sign a scorecard when she was in contention and didn't play at all well before then or well enough afterward. Stacy Lewis has a long way to go because her U.S. Women's Open winnings don't count toward her total. Because she's not going to get her full allotment of 6 sponsors' exemptions (for reasons I'm struggling to understand), she'll need to contend in the few she does get to have a chance this way.

Finish in the Top 5 10 on the Futures Tour Money List [see update below]
4-time winner Vicky Hurst and 3-time winner Mindy Kim could sit out the rest of the FT season and still get their cards--with 3 events to go, there's not enough money on the table for 5 players to leapfrog them on the money list. But the race for the last 3 spots is wide open. #3 M.J. Hur has been having trouble on Sundays all season, so less than $15K separates her from #12 Mo Martin. As #5 Leah Wigger is a member of the Class of 2008 and #8 Sarah Jane Kenyon of the Class of '06, they might have the best shot at getting 2 of the last 3 spots. Jin Young Pak and Song-Yi Choi have scoring averages under 72, which is a pretty decent indicator for some LPGA success, so they may have an advantage over Hur (particularly when you take sub-par round rate [.457 and .391 to .378] into account), but Hur is hitting a lot more greens than they are, so if she can get her putter going and play the par 5s better, she can maintain her lead.

With 2 of the last 3 the last 2 official events coming before the deadline to submit entries for the sectional qualifiers of LPGA Q-School, we'll know which players are confident they'll finish in the top 15 have finished in the top 20 on the FT money list. #6 through #15 #11 through #20 get an exemption into the 90-hole final qualifying tournament. The rest will have to apply for one or both sectional qualifiers. [see update below]

Q-School
So Michelle Wie and Stacy Lewis are most likely to headline LPGA Q-School--if, that is, Wie decides to go for it and Lewis doesn't qualify by other means 1st. From the LET, presumptive Rookie of the Year Melissa Reid has expressed interest in playing on the LPGA, as has Yuki Sakurai, who's #4 in the ROY race there this season. There are good odds that Nikki Garrett and Kiran Matharu will try again, along with others closer to the top of the Order of Merit (Garrett is #29 while Matharu is #52). From Japan, amateur star Mika Miyazato will most likely give it a try, as well. It'll be interesting to see which of this spring's top graduating seniors will stack up well against their more experienced Futures Tour competition in Q-School.

Too Soon to Tell
So it's most definitely too soon to tell who besides Ji-Yai Shin, Vicky Hurst, and Mindy Kim will be in the Class of 2009, but it's sure fun to speculate who besides Stacy Lewis and Michelle Wie are most likely to join them. Given that Shin has her pick of schedule in 2009--she's a member of the KLPGA and JLPGA already and will have LPGA and LET membership next season (technically, she could have applied for a non-exempt LPGA membership right after her WBO win, but I don't know if she has)--the Rookie of the Year race in 2009 should be fairly wide open. More on that after Q-School!

[Update 1 (8:34 pm): Just saw on LPGA.com that the LET's Becky Brewerton plans to attend Q-School.]

[Update 2 (8/20/08, 8:33 pm): The LPGA has clarified its membership criteria and announced that the top 10 from the Futures Tour money list as of the Albany event's end get LPGA cards. So everyone from #11 Sophia Sheridan to #18 Caroline Larsson within $10K of #10 Haeji Kang gets new life. This new race deserves a post of its own after the close of this week's Gettysburg event. More later!]

[Update 3 (9/7/08, 7:14 pm): Congratulations to Sarah-Jane Kenyon, M.J. Hur, and Jin Young Pak for joining Vicky Hurst and Mindy Kim as the top 5 Futures Tour graduates. All except Junior Mint Kenyon will be '09ers. Song Yi Choi, Jessica Shepley, Leah Wigger, Sophia Sheridan, and Kim Welch will have lower-priority status for 2009, with a chance to improve their status at Q-School. The next 10 on the money list (6 of whom won once each on the FT this season), from Haeji Kang to Jenny Suh, get a free pass to the LPGA's Final Qualifying School.]

[Update 4 (9/8/08, 3:10 am): Whoops, 2 mistakes to correct. Jin Young Pak is already a member of the LPGA Class of '07 (another Super Soph!) and the FT claims that only #6 through #15 on their money list go straight to Q-School's 90-hole finale. The official interpretation of the 10 cards/10 Q-School spots seems a bit cheap to me.]

Canadian Women's Open Sunday: Can Tseng Do on the LPGA What Hara Did on the JLPGA?

There are some amazing pairings for the final round of the Canadian Women's Open. Here are my top 4:

Ya Ni Tseng (-14) and Se Ri Pak (-10): Tseng came this close to matching Pak's 2 majors in her rookie season (Pak has Ji-Yai Shin to thank for that!). Tseng is going for LPGA victory #2 and Pak for #25....

Suzann Pettersen (-2) and Annika Sorenstam (-2): Annika definitely gets in Suzann's head. She's 4-0 against her when they've played together this season. I don't think it's a coincidence that Pettersen's breakout season came while Sorenstam was sidelined or that she's struggled this season with Annika back.

Jennifer Rosales (-3) and Michelle Wie (-2): 2 talented young players known as much for their DQs and WDs as for their more positive achievements--and both fighting for their 2009 cards. Rosales is #97 on the money list, having made just under $80K this season, while Wie needs at least a 4th-place finish to avoid Q-School.

Lorena Ochoa (-8) and Katherine Hull (-8): Hull has already had a career season, but she can make it a great one with a great finish today, while Ochoa will need a miracle to defend her title and get her 7th win of the season.

I'll be at the Erie Zoo most of today for the 5th birthday party of one of onechan's best friends, so I won't know for awhile whether Tseng will follow Erina Hara's lead and run away with this tournament in as dominating a fashion as Hara did on the JLPGA. Feel free to give me updates in comments!

[Update 1 (8/18/08, 6:32 am): Congratulations to Katherine Hull for turning what was already a career season into a great one by any standard. On a day when the few other players who broke 70 had nothing to lose, her 69 was the only strong round among the 4 who could have won this. Sure, Tseng had a Pettersen-like collapse (so watch out for her the rest of the season, as Pettersen won in bunches this time of year last year after missing out on good opportunities for wins earlier in the season), Ochoa couldn't get anything going for the 2nd day in a row, and Pak was all over the map. But Hull did exactly what she had to do to give herself a chance of winning--and like Seon Hwa Lee's win a little while ago, it was just good enough. And that's all that matters. She's in the ADT Championship, she'll be doing the Asian swing, she's in the top 20 of the money list, not far from Karrie Webb and way ahead of Lindsey Wright and Rachel Hetherington.... Wow! Only time will tell if Hull will handle this quantum leap better than Brittany Lincicome and Meaghan Francella have, as well as Nicole Castrale, or even better.

And what a bitter disappointment for the other 3 contenders. Not to mention for Seon Hwa Lee, Cristie Kerr, Eun-Hee Ji, Na Yeon Choi, Angela Park, Inbee Park, and In-Kyung Kim, who had to have higher expectations this week than the middle of the pack. (Certainly I did for them!)

But a good day for Pettersen, who finally beat Annika when playing in the same pairing as her. And for many lesser-known players, it was a pretty darn good tournament. Another great finish for Junior Mint Sun Young Yoo--she had the best weekend among those in the top 10. Super Soph Song-Hee Kim was the only plaer in the field to break par all 4 rounds. Jennifer Rosales and Moira Dunn picked up significant chunks of change for those fighting to get and stay inside the top 80 on the money list (#80 Marisa Baena has $112.3K now). And I would say this was actually a good tournament for Michelle Wie. She showed she can grind it out under pressure on a course that doesn't entirely suit her game (too much rough!) and get a top 15 despite 1 really bad round in the mix. Sure, she didn't play well enough to get her card, but she showed she can be a top-rank player on tour. But more on her in another post. For now, check out Hound Dog's recap and LPGA.com's notes and interviews.]

[Update 2 (3:25 pm): Ryan Ballengee gets Tseng right.]

[Update 3 (3:45 pm): And Hound Dog gets Hull right.]

NEC Karuizawa 72 Ladies Sunday: Erina Hara Shows Ya Ni Tseng How to Win Going Away

Ya Ni Tseng, please take note: Erina Hara just put on a clinic on how to run away with a tournament over at the NEC Karuizawa 72. Playing with her nearest competitors--although "nearest" is a relative term this week in particular--Hara immediately built on her 6-shot lead on Miho Koga and 7-shot lead on Akane Iijima with birdies on 4 of her 1st 6 holes, including 3 in a row from the 4th through the 6th. Hara kept the pedal to the metal over the last 12 holes even though the outcome was never in doubt. She posted a bogey-free 65 for a -21 total and a 7-shot victory.

Here are the final results for the top 10 and notables:

1st/-21 Hara (67-63-65)
2nd/-14 Ji-Hee Lee (69-69-64)
3rd/-12 Sakura Yokomine (72-67-65)
T4/-9 Hyun-Ju Shin (69-69-69), Rui Kitada (68-70-69)
T6/-8 Mi-Jeong Jeon (68-71-69), Mayu Hattori (71-68-69), Eun-A Lim (68-70-70)
T9/-7 Akiko Fukushima (69-72-68), Ji-Woo Lee (70-69-70), Chie Arimura (70-68-71), Iijima (69-68-72), Koga (67-69-73)

T19/-4 Hiromi Mogi (72-71-69), Na Zhang (72-69-71), Midori Yoneyama (74-67-71), Bo-Bae Song (69-69-74)
T23/-3 Nikki Campbell (71-72-70, Ayako Uehara (72-70-71)
T28/-2 Shinobu Moromizato (74-70-70), Michiko Hattori (73-71-70), Yuko Mitsuka (71-71-72)
T33/-1 Maiko Wakabayashi (73-70-72), Mie Nakata (73-67-75)
T40/E Kaori Higo (72-72-72)
T44/+1 Esther Lee (75-68-74)

Ji-Hee Lee tried to make things interesting when she matched Hara's outgoing 32, but could only make up 1 stroke on the winner even after shooting another 32 on the way in. Still, her solo 2nd at -14 enabled her to make up a little ground on the JLPGA's money-list-leader Akiko Fukushima (who got to -9 with an eagle on the par-5 16th but promptly gave it back with a double on the par-3 17th). Another player happy with her finish is Sakura Yokomine, who fired a bogey-free 65 of her own to take the bronze at -12. Watch out for her the rest of the season, starting with her title defense next week at the CAT Ladies.

But today is Hara's day. She is the 1st on the JLPGA to go into the minus-20s this season. (In fact, Lee's 2nd-place total would have been enough to win every other tournament this season, except for the 1st week when Bo-Bae Song matched it; few winners have even matched Yokomine's 3rd-place total.) Hara now has as many career wins as fellow JLPGA Super Sophs Miki Saiki, Yuko Mitsuka, and Bo-Bae Song, but where Saiki is slumping badly, Mitsuka has struggled in 3 of her last 4 events, and Song hasn't cracked the top 15 in a month, Hara is riding a wave of top 10s (6 in her last 7 events) and top 20s (13 of her last 17 events). She's now passed Mitsuka on the JLPGA money list:

1. Akiko Fukushima ￥80.67M
2. Ji-Hee Lee ￥64.43M
3. Mi-Jeong Jeon ￥62.75M
4. Miho Koga ￥55.39M
5. Sakura Yokomine ￥51.19M
6. Ayako Uehara ￥48.98M
7. Erina Hara ￥45.12M
8. Yuko Mitsuka ￥43.98M
9. Eun-A Lim ￥43.88M
10. Hyun-Ju Shin ￥41.25M
11. Shiho Oyama ￥41.12M
12. Shinobu Moromizato ￥40.04M
13. Bo-Bae Song ￥39.14M
14. Yukari Baba ￥38.80M
15. Chie Arimura ￥38.36M
16. Akane Iijima ￥37.01M
17. Yuri Fudoh ￥36.37M
18. Hiromi Mogi ￥36.27M
19. Hiroko Yamaguchi ￥34.32M
20. Miki Saiki ￥33.52M
21. Ji-Woo Lee ￥28.24M
22. Esther Lee ￥23.01M
23. Midori Yoneyama ￥21.03M
24. Momoko Ueda ￥18.62M
25. Na Zhang ￥18.06M

Less than a month away from the JLPGA's 2nd major, Hara definitely has to be considered one of the favorites. The next few weeks should be very interesting on the JLPGA!

So Hara has shown Tseng how to rout your opponents. Can Tseng do the same to Se Ri Pak, Lorena Ochoa, and Katherine Hull later today?

Canadian Women's Open Saturday: Who's That Girl?

Ya Ni Tseng is tearing up Ottawa Hunt and Golf Club this week at the Canadian Women's Open. When I profiled her earlier this month and picked her for the win earlier this week, I had no idea she would be -14 after 3 rounds.

Tseng's nearest pursuer is Hall of Famer Se Ri Pak, who went birdie-birdie-hole in 1 on the front but made up a grand total of 0 strokes on the leader. With a 4-shot lead on Pak and a 6-shot lead on Lorena Ochoa, who birdied the 18th to hold onto a share of 3rd place with Katherine Hull (72 today), Tseng is looking to make some history tomorrow. She has a great chance to surpass Ochoa's winning total of -16 from last season and even threaten Meg Mallon's -18 total from 2004.

There are 19 players bunched within 5 shots of Paula Creamer and Song-Hee Kim at -5 through 54 holes (among them Michelle Wie, who fired a bogey-free 69 today), so the race for the top 10 is still wide open. Annika Sorenstam (76) and Nicole Castrale (77) will have to dig deep to put today's disappointments behind them. But at least they're in better position than Christina Kim, whose 79 dropped her back to T40, and Seon Hwa Lee, who finds herself T65 after an uncharacteristic 78. When you look down the leaderboard and see how many good players are struggling to go under par more than once and avoid going over 74 more than once, the consistent excellence of Tseng and Pak and the steadfastness of Creamer and Kim are even more impressive.

Should be a fascinating final round. If Tseng has shown 1 weakness this season, it's been defending a lead. Me, in addition to rooting for Tseng to address this issue, I'll be hoping for a strong finish from Moira Dunn, who's T26 at +1.

[Update 1 (8/17/08, 4:16 am): Hound Dog calls this Tseng's tournament to lose. It's hard to dispute that assessment, but when you're being chased by the most recent inductee into the Hall of Fame and the next one to be inducted, it's just as hard for a rookie to feel like she owns the tournament. I would love to see Pak and Ochoa put some pressure on Tseng. Time to see what she's made of. We know she's light years ahead of Wie in her development since she defeated Wie in the 2004 WAPL--is she ready to be the 1st rookie since Paula Creamer to win twice in a year?]

NEC Karuizawa 72 Ladies Saturday: Erina Hara Takes Control

Erina Hara fired a bogey-free 63 in the 2nd round of the NEC Karuizawa 72 JLPGA event to open up a 6-shot lead on Miho Koga. Hara is 18 holes away from her 1st career JLPGA victory. Can she hang on? There's a strong chase pack that's unlikely to back down tomorrow, but are they too far back to put any pressure on the 20-year-old leader?

1st/-14 Hara (67-63)
2nd/-8 Koga (67-69)
3rd/-7 Akane Iijima (69-68)
T4/-6 Chie Arimura (70-68), Saiki Fujita (70-68), Bo-Bae Song (69-69), Ji-Hee Lee (69-69), Hyun-Ju Shin (69-69), Makoto Takemura (69-69), Eun-A Lim (68-70), Rui Kitada (68-70)

For the 2nd straight round, Koga carded a double bogey but still broke 70. Eun-A Lim finished birdie-eagle-par-birdie to pull within 8 of the lead.

T12/-5 Sakura Yokomine (72-67), Mayu Hattori (71-68), Ji-Woo Lee (70-69), Mi-Jeong Jeon (68-71)
T18/-4 Mie Nakata (73-67)
T23/-3 Midori Yoneyama (74-67), Na Zhang (72-69), Akiko Fukushima (69-72)
T29/-2 Ayako Uehara (72-70), Yuko Mitsuka (71-71)
T34/-1 Esther Lee (75-68), Maiko Wakabayashi (73-70), Hiromi Mogi (72-71), Nikki Campbell (71-72)
T43/E Shinobu Moromizato (74-70), Michiko Hattori (73-71), Kaori Higo (72-72)

Yokomine's bogey-free 67 was the 3rd-best round of the day, after Hara and amateur Asaka Fujimoto (who bounced back from an opening 77 with a 66 to make the cut wth 1 stroke to spare), but she still lost 4 strokes to the leader. Money-list leader Fukushima will need a good final round to keep Mi-Jeong Jeon and Ji-Hee Lee from making up ground on her.

Missing the cut by a surprisingly large margin were a surprisingly large number of JLPGA notables, including 1/4 of the JLPGA's Big 8:

T69/+3 Shiho Oyama (74-73), Miki Saiki (73-74), Ritsuko Ryu (73-74)
T79/+4 Hiroko Yamaguchi (75-73), Yukari Baba (74-74)
T92/+7 Yuki Ichinose (74-77)

Canadian Women's Open Friday: It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times

With the afternoon groups about to venture out for their 2nd round in the Canadian Women's Open, Katherine Hull and H.J. Choi are showing how to get it done. Hull has made 4 birdies on each side and with 2 holes to play is -7 on the day and -8 for the tournament, while Choi has made 5 birdies and no bogeys through her 1st 15 holes to vault to -4. With Lorena Ochoa, Nicole Castrale, and Se Ri Pak not making big moves in their opening 9s today, the door is wide open for Annika Sorenstam, Hee-Won Han, and Meena Lee to take advantage.

But it won't be easy. The other players in the morning groups with the best chance to break 70 are Christina Kim (-2 through 10 today) and Natalie Gulbis (who just shot a 33 on the back). Michelle Wie gave it the good old college try, but could only manage a 70. Still, she lives to play another day and at +1 is in much better shape than many might have expected after her 1st round. There aren't that many players from the morning under par thus far, so the course is playing as tough as ever.

With the cut line coming in anywhere between +2 and +4, Ai Miyazato is going to need to play the last 6 holes on the front very well (she's +6 for the tournament heading into them). She's in very good company, but a missed cut would be a huge setback in her recent comeback. Here's hoping she can string together a few birdies early this afternoon!

[Update 1 (4:32 pm): Holy turnaround, Batman! Ochoa strung together a flawless 32 on the front to become the leader in the clubhouse at -10, while Gulbis finished with 4 bogeys and a double to post a 41 on the front and end up 10 shots behind Ochoa! Meanwhile, Christina Kim birdied her last 2 holes in a row for a 33 on the back and a bogey-free 67 that brought her to -4 in the tournament. Michelle Wie is tied right now with the last 2 rookies of the year, Seon Hwa Lee and Angela Park, so her 70 is looking more and more impressive, particularly given the names who have missed the cut for sure: Gloria Park, Young Kim, Kristy McPherson, Becky Morgan, Rachel Hetherington, Karen Stupples, Kyeong Bae, Sherri Steinhauer, Ai Miyazato, Pat Hurst, Mhairi McKay, and Linda Wessberg. And that's just from the morning groups.]

[Update 2 (4:39 pm): And so far, it's not Meena Lee, Hee-Won Han, or Annika Sorenstam who have taken advantage of the morning groups' difficulties, but Ya Ni Tseng, who's -6 through 10 holes today and -8 overall. She's pulled ahead of Nicole Castrale, who shot a great 69 to get to -7, and Se Ri Pak who came back for a solid 70 and a -6 total through 36 holes. Castrale and Ochoa are the only 2 players in the field to shoot 2 sub-70 rounds, although Sorenstam and Han could finish strong and join them (both are E so far).]

[Update 3 (8:06 pm): LPGA.com has the lowdown on the suspension of play and its resumption tomorrow at 8 am. The third round should begin sometime around noon.]

[Update 4 (8/16/08, 5:48 pm): Wow, a 64 by Tseng pulled her even with Ochoa! And how about that 68 by Jennifer Rosales? Very strange--and good--to see her in the top 10 again. Annika's 71 kept her within shouting distance of the lead, while Han's 72 dropped her pack in the chase pack. The cut ended up being at +4, which saved such rookies as Hee Young Park, Louise Friberg, Sandra Gal, Jimin Jeong, and Liz Janangelo along with close to a dozen others with more experience. For the comprehensive round-up, check out Hound Dog's 2nd-round recap.]

NEC Karuizawa 72 Friday: Bring Your 'A' Game This Week

With the entire JLPGA top 25 except Yuri Fudoh and Yun-Jye Wei playing in the NEC Karuizawa 72 Golf Tournament, you'd expect scoring to be low and the leaders to be bunched, wouldn't you? Well, you ought to have. With 4 birdies and no bogeys through her 1st 15 holes, 20-year-old Erina Hara is riding a wave of recent top 10s and looking for her 1st career win. But Mostly Harmless #1 Mi-Jeong Jeon fired a 33 on the front and has continued her own bogey-free streak to join her at -4 with 3 holes to go. Right behind this pair are Bo-Bae Song (who has already posted a 69), Miho Koga (who has birdied 3 holes on the back to offset her double bogey on the par-3 12th), Akane Iijima and Chie Arimura (both of whom have 2 birdies on the back to go along with their 2 on the front). And only 2 back are Japan's Akiko Fukushima, along with Korea's Ji-Hee Lee, Hyun-Ju Shin, Eun-A Lim, and Ji-Woo Lee. More later when play is complete.

[Update 1 (2:38 am): Here are the top 10 and notables after the end of the 1st round:

T1/-5 Koga, Hara, Yumiko Yoshida, Hiroko Fukusima (67)
T5/-4 Jeon, Lim, Rui Kitada (68)
T8/-3 Fukushima, Ji-Hee Lee, Song, Iijima, Shin, So-Hee Kim, Kasumi Fujii, Eriko Moriyama, Makoto Takemura (69)

T17/-2 Arimura, Ji-Woo Lee (70)
T23/-1 Yuko Mitsuka, Mayu Hattori, Nikki Campbell (71)
T36/E Sakura Yokomine, Ayako Uehara, Na Zhang, Hiromi Mogi, Kaori Higo (72)
T53/+1 Miki Saiki, Mie Nakata, Maiko Wakabayashi, Ritsuko Ryu, Michiko Hattori (73)
T69/+2 Shiho Oyama, Shinobu Moromizato, Yukari Baba, Midori Yoneyama, Yuki Ichinose (74)
T84/+3 Hiroko Yamaguchi, Esther Lee (75)

So Koga, Jeon, and Fukushima definitely brought their 'A' game today among the JLPGA's Big 8, Ji-Hee Lee and Song among the next 5, and most of the rest of the top 20. It'll be interesting to see who keep up this pace and who among those who struggled today pick up their pace tomorrow.]

Canadian Women's Open Thursday: The Course Giveth, and the Course Taketh

I'll be amazed if anyone matches Meena Lee's a bogey-free round 68 today at the Canadian Women's Open. Right now there are only 3 players with a chance to do so: world #1 Lorena Ochoa, who's -4 through 14, Super Soph Song-Hee Kim, who's -4 with the 9th left to play, and much-heralded young American Nicole Castrale, who's -4 with 4 holes left to play on the front. (Oh, all right, Kirby Dreher has no bogeys heading into the back, but do you really think she can keep up that pace?)

Much more typical among those playing well is a round like, well, like the leader in the clubhouse, world #1A Annika Sorenstam, who sprinkled 3 bogeys among her 8 birdies, but followed up her back-side 31 with a front-side 36. Among those struggling, a round like Cristie Kerr's is more representative: a birdie-less 40 on the front followed by a bogey-free 34 on the back to put her in T76 (for now). But it's not like 1 side is clearly easier than the other: another good player who struggled today, Sophie Gustafson, shot a bogey-free 34 on the back and a birdie-less 39 on the front, while Hee Won Han's fine 68 began with a 33 on the front.

The bottom line is, you're going to have to be resilient if you want to win this thing.

[Update 1 (4:56 pm): Consider the following scores if you don't believe me. Suzann Pettersen's 69 came thanks to 3 consecutive closing birdies on the front (a feat matched on the back by Sorenstam), while Catriona Matthew's came with 2 in a row. Ya Ni Tseng came back from 3 bogeys in 5 holes on the back, her 1st 9, to post a 70, while Inbee Park came back from 2 in a row on the same side for hers. Shanshan Feng made 6 birdies to come back from her 1st-hole double bogey, but only shot a 72, while Laura Diaz also made 6 birdies but only managed a 70. Ai Miyazato bogeyed her last 2 holes to drop to a 74, while Moira Dunn bogeyed 2 of her last 3 for a 73, after coming back from a double bogey-bogey string late on the front. Heck, Junior Mints Brittany Lang and Linda Wessberg couldn't even break 80!]

[Update 2 (5:00 pm): Nice to see Lorena and Annika tied at the top of the leaderboard--that's been a long time coming, hasn't it? Although Lorena still has 3 holes to play. Also nice to see Se Ri Pak contending again--she's 1 back with 3 to go.]

[Update 3 (5:03 pm): Playing with Ochoa and Pak, Seon Hwa Lee had made a good comeback to get to -2 through 14, but a double on the par-3 15th erased her good work. Michelle Wie's in worse shape: after birdies on 2 of her 1st 3 holes got erased by a double on the par-5 6th, she broke a 6-hole par string on the par-4 13th with a bogey that dropped her to +1.]

[Update 4 (5:07 pm): Well, Song-Hee Kim's bogey-free bid ended on her last hole; it's still a great 69 on a day when possibly fewer than 10 players will break 70, but I'll still bet she'll be kicking herself all the way to bed tonight.]

[Update 5 (5:09 pm): Meanwhile, Dreher is still bogey-free: she doubled the 11th. It's down to Castrale and Ochoa, both -5 with 2 to go, on opposite 9s.]

[Update 6 (7:43 pm): Of course it was Lorena Ochoa who not only matched but outdid Meena Lee's bogey-free 68. Her birdie on the 18th gave her the only 66 of the day, 1 shot ahead of Annika Sorenstam. Amazing! Castrale, meanwhile, ended up with a fine 68, marred only by a bogey on her final hole, the 9th. In-Kyung Kim's birdie on that hole earned her a 69, but she was matched by rookie Eunjung Yi, who followed up her 64 in Monday qualifying with 4 consecutive birdies to begin the back. That makes only 11 players who broke 70, 34 who broke par, and 55 who avoided going over par. Michelle Wie's 75 matched Hee Young Park, Kyeong Bae, Teresa Lu, Julieta Granada, Shi Hyun Ahn, Giulia Sergas, Stacy Prammanasudh, and Karen Stupples, but T87 is most definitely not what she needed out of her 1st round.]

[Update 7 (8/15/08, 12:31 am): The Golf Channel highlights are much more interesting than the AP story. But as usual, Hound Dog and LPGA.com are the primary sources.]

On Wie, Bivens, and LPGA Membership Criteria

What Michelle Wie does over the next 4 days in the Canadian Women's Open can put all the criticism she's received over the past 2 seasons firmly behind her. I'd love to see her play the 6510-yard Ottawa Hunt and Golf Club as well as she did at Panther Creek in the State Farm Classic--and not just because I picked her in this week's Pakpicker at Seoul Sisters.com to finish 4th or because her getting into the mix this weekend would help provide more data for a little research question I'd like to see someone answer. No, I just want her to play golf the way she's capable of so she can become a member of the LPGA's Class of 2009.

For a clear summary of where Wie stands, check out the following by Brent Kelley, About.com's golf guide (who's also written the definitive pieces on the Women's British Open/Reno-Tahoe controversy and the State Farm DQ). If only Golf Observer's Sal Johnson were as sensible and level-headed as Kelley in his own Wie piece. Instead, he implies the existence of a Bivens-Wie feud:

But the mystery in all of this is still the reaction that the LPGA Tour has given her. Instead of embracing the potential and what Wie could do to grow the LPGA to new levels, she seems to get the cold shoulder of their czar Carolyn Bivens.

Johnson goes on to claim without substantiation that things were different when Laura Baugh was The Next Big Thing. And he agrees with Geoff Shackelford that Bivens showed too little sympathy for Wie's failure to sign her card after her 2nd round in the State Farm. But he also acknowledges that the LPGA was right to DQ Wie, suggests the Wie camp has been dismissive toward the LPGA, and concedes, "At this time I see no way for Biven's [sic] to give any kind of help to Michelle."

So Johnson would have been better off sticking to his conclusion that Wie holds her fate in her hands this week and that a solo 4th or better would pretty much guarantee her full LPGA membership in 2009--and leaving Bivens out of it. But since he did go there, he would have been better off suggesting what Bivens could do in the future to make it easier for Wie (and, for that matter, any other non-member) to join the LPGA. As my previous speculation on these matters didn't pan out, I'll offer a simple list this time:

1. Institute a "battlefield promotion" rule on the Futures Tour: offer immediate exempt status on the LPGA once someone wins her 4th tournament in a season there (if she wasn't already a non-exempt member of the LPGA, the following year would be her official rookie season).

2. Listen to Steve Elling: allow winnings in all events that count toward the LPGA money list for LPGA members to also count for non-members when determining membership eligibility for the following season (while reducing the maximum allowable number of sponsors' exemptions to 5 and requiring the equivalent of a top 70 finish on the money list, in order to make this enough of a challenge for non-members).

3. Open up the 36-hole "U.S. qualifier" for the Women's British Open at the Jamie Farr to everyone in the field (not just LPGA members).

4. Allow 5 exemptions each from the Korean LPGA, LPGA of Japan, and Ladies European Tour into the final qualifying tournament of the LPGA Q-School (each tour would thus get half what the Futures Tour gets).

The effect of these changes would be to level the playing field for non-members and thereby encourage the best women golfers in the world to go for LPGA membership.

Now, should Wie not play well this week, she has until September 9th to submit her entry into Q-School. I've heard that new criteria for LPGA membership are coming down the pike, but this is the first hint I've seen of what they might be:

Purpose of Competition
To determine those who will be offered Tournament Division Membership in the Ladies Professional Golf Association with priority status for the 2009 season. The top 20 qualifiers will receive priority status in Category #11. The top 20 players will alternate with players 81-90 on the 2008 LPGA Official Money List. In addition, qualifiers finishing in position #21-30 will receive priority status in category 16 and qualifiers in position 31-40 in category #20.

I haven't been able to find an explanation of categories 11, 16, or 20 (much less the other 17!). But this much is clear: Wie would have to work out with her professors what to do about her missed classes the week of the CA sectional qualifier (9/16-9/19). And since the final qualifying tournament (12/1-12/7) comes after Stanford's Thanksgiving break and during its End-Quarter Period, she'd have to manage her time well to do well in her finals the following week. (And hope that she has no exams on Monday and Tuesday, as qualifiers must attend a mandatory orientation both days.)

Much better to make like Ji-Yai Shin and win this week. Annika Sorenstam, who opened with a 31 on the back and is -4 through her 1st 11 holes, and Hee-Won Han, who birdied 5 of her 1st 10 holes and is -3 through 14, might just have something to say about that, though....

[Update 1 (8/20/08, 8:28 pm): The LPGA has clarified its membership criteria.]

[Update 2 (8/21/08, 12:31 pm): I revisited some of these issues in an August 18th post on the Class of 2009.]

[Update 3 (9/8/08, 10:24 am): Forgot to mention here that I took a stab at analyzing the new priority status categories on August 21st.]

[Update 4 (9/11/08, 3:06 pm): Here are my initial thoughts on Wie and her top competition at the Mission Hills qualifier.]

Canadian Women's Open Preview/Predictions/Pairings

The Canadian Women's Open is finally almost here. With big wins this past week by Amanda Blumenherst over Azahara Munoz in the U.S. Women's Amateur, Amy Yang over Maria Hjorth and Minea Blomqvist at Annika's LET event, and Mindy Kim over Vicky Hurst and Stacy Lewis on the Futures Tour, the stage is set for Michelle Wie's last LPGA regular-season stand of 2008. As Hound Dog has covered the bases in his tournament preview and Golf Observer has covered the angles in their historical review, I'll cut straight to my predictions:

1. Tseng Ya Ni
2. Ochoa
3. Creamer
4. Wie Michelle
5. Choi Na Yeon
6. Ji Eun-Hee
7. Lee Seon Hwa
8. Miyazato Ai
9. Kerr
10. Han Hee-Won
11. Kim In-Kyung
12. Park Jane

Alts: Park Angela, Park Inbee, Park Hee Young

Basically I'm predicting that Michelle Wie will make it a down-to-the-wire finish to see if she can end up within the top 80 on the money list this season. Last year, T4 earned just shy of $105K, so a solo 4th would put her somewhere between $125K and $135K on the season. The current #80, Moira Dunn, has already won just shy of $110K. With 6 full-field events to go, Dunn would just need to make cuts to get into that vicinity.

It's interesting to see how the tournament organizers handled the Michelle Wie question. Unlike her other events where she was 1st off the 1st tee, she's going off at 1:00 pm off the 1st with Alena Sharp and a Canadian amateur. The real prime-time pairings can be found in the morning going off the back:

Start Time: 8:30 AM
Na Yeon Choi
Silvia Cavalleri
Sung Ah Yim

Start Time: 8:40 AM
Sophie Gustafson
Jin Joo Hong
Catriona Matthew

Start Time: 8:50 AM
Meena Lee
Cristie Kerr
Paula Creamer

Start Time: 9:00 AM
Suzann Pettersen
Morgan Pressel
Meg Mallon

Start Time: 9:10 AM
Annika Sorenstam
Yani Tseng
Inbee Park

Those last 3 pairings in particular are pretty impressive: Annika with the 2 young gun major winners of 2008 (one of whom is undefeated against her in head-to-head play), a 2-time champion with 2 fiery players from Europe and the U.S., and a former champion with the 2 top Americans in the field (both of whom are playing well coming into the event) are had to beat.

But there's a lot of star power going off the front in the afternoon:

Start Time: 12:10 PM
Sherri Steinhauer
Ai Miyazato
Giulia Sergas

Start Time: 12:20 PM
Jee Young Lee
Teresa Lu
Pat Hurst

Start Time: 12:30 PM
Karrie Webb
Rachel Hetherington
Juli Inkster

Start Time: 12:40 PM
Se Ri Pak
Lorena Ochoa
Seon Hwa Lee

Start Time: 12:50 PM
Helen Alfredsson
Natalie Gulbis
Lorie Kane

There's not really a weak spot anywhere in these pairings; even veterans Pat Hurst and Sherri Steinhauer, while not playing up to their high standards this season, have some good rounds in them. And the high points are pretty darn high, particularly in that amazing next-to-last group.

The next-best prime-time quadrant goes off the back in the afternoon:

Start Time: 12:10 PM
Song-Hee Kim
Young Kim
Angela Park

Start Time: 12:20 PM
Lindsey Wright
Christa Johnson
Louise Friberg

Start Time: 12:30 PM
Liselotte Neumann
Christina Kim
Sun Young Yoo

Start Time: 12:40 PM
In-Kyung Kim
Minea Blomqvist
Karen Stupples

Start Time: 12:50 PM
Jane Park
Nicole Castrale
Eun-Hee Ji

Of the Kims in this quadrant, only In-Kyung is playing particularly well heading into this event; all the rest got off to hot starts but haven't sustained their momentum. Blomqvist is coming off a final-round 63 in the Scandinavian TPC that vaulted her into a tie for 2nd place, while Friberg and Neumann are coming off T6 finishes there, but like all the top Euros except Pettersen (who skipped Annika's event) will be dealing with jet lag. That leaves Angela Park, Eun-Hee Ji, and Jane Park as most likely to contend with In-Kyung Kim from this quadrant.

Last, and unfortunately least, is the morning prime-time quadrant going off the front:

Start Time: 8:30 AM
Candie Kung
Hee-Won Han
Brittany Lang

Start Time: 8:40 AM
Meaghan Francella
Michele Redman
Julieta Granada

Start Time: 8:50 AM
Laura Diaz
Brittany Lincicome
Grace Park

Start Time: 9:00 AM
Leta Lindley
Angela Stanford
Wendy Ward

Start Time: 9:10 AM
Hee Young Park
Brandie Burton
Stacy Prammanasudh

Between less high-profile veterans (Ward, Burton, Redman, Lindley), struggling youngsters (Lincicome, Granada, and Francella), and hot-and-cold others (Diaz, Stanford, Prammanasudh, both Parks), that leaves the early threesome of Kung, Han, and Lang as the most likely to succeed from this quadrant.

Other players with a good chance to contend include Shi Hyun Ahn (7:40 am off #10) Shanshan Feng (7:30 am off #1), Kristy McPherson (1:40 pm off #1), H.J. Choi (1:40 pm off #10), and Kyeong Bae (2:00 pm off #10). I'll be following the Moira Dunn, Carolina Llano, and Linda Wessberg pairing at 7:20 am off #1 with great interest--Dunn is an old friend, Llano is a rookie who's shown signs of life, and Wessberg is a Junior Mint with great promise.

[Update 1 (5:40 pm): Chris Stevenson of the Toronto Sun gives the exact figures for Wie's bid for the top 80. If his numbers are right, a solo 4th would get her to $141.5K for the season, which ought to be good enough. But when you look at the names just outside the top 80 right now--Erica Blasberg, Johanna Head, Kris Tamullis, Kelli Kuehne, Dorothy Delasin, Brittany Lincicome, Laura Davies, Gloria Park, Karin Sjodin, and Meg Mallon--and consider who's further down the list--Jennifer Rosales, Sherri Steinhauer, Reilley Rankin, Mhairi McKay, Julieta Granada, Amy Yang, Grace Park, Liselotte Neumann, and Lorie Kane, to name a few--Moira and everyone else hovering around $110K thus far this season can't afford to coast. Anything below 4th just isn't going to cut it for Wie.]

CVS To Buy Longs Drugs--LPGA Repercussions?

Yahoo! News is reporting that CVS will buy Longs Drugs, the CA-based chain that has sponsored an LPGA event since 1997, I believe. Wonder if this will mean the end of the tournament or the end of its piddling purses? I can't wait to see how Ryan Ballengee at the GNN Blog and Hound Dog respond to the news!

[Update 1 (5:43 pm): As promised in comments, Ryan responds.]

On International Team Golf

No, this isn't a Ryder Cup post. It's a response to Ron Sirak's reporting that the question of tweaking the Solheim Cup has shifted from "whether" to "when" and "how." Nothing has been decided, of course, but I hope the deciders are considering the answer to the last question more carefully than Sirak, who points out that the Lexus Cup complicates the process, but manages to pass over the Kyoraku Cup. Since my own preferred answer involves synchronizing the U.S. vs. Europe Solheim Cup with the Korea vs. Japan Kyoraku Cup and having the winners and losers square off in the off-year, I'm particularly disappointed at Sirak's oversight.

What about the Lexus Cup? I like both its Asia-centricity and its "Asia against the world" mode, particularly since it gives golfers who are not eligible for either the Solheim or Kyoraku Cups (such as Karrie Webb, Lorena Ochoa, Angela Park, Ya Ni Tseng, and Na Zhang) a chance to play international team golf in a more dramatic format than the Women's World Cup. So I'd recommend keeping it as a stand-alone end-of-season event.

Another topic Sirak doesn't address in his brief column is the Olympics. Let's skip straight to the "how" question, because it's the most important one: if you can come up with a good format, it makes sense to get golf in the Olympics as soon as possible. If not, forget it.

Here's what I'd like to see. The first round should be handled like a college golf tournament in the U.S., with a few small twists. That is, it should be a 36-hole stroke-play event consisting of 4-player teams from all nations that can field a pair of women and a pair of men. Give individual medals to the lowest-scoring individuals of each gender, throw out the worst male and worst female score each round to determine team totals, and use the team results as a qualifier for the second round, which will consist of team match-play between the top 8 teams. For each match, put the men and women into different foursomes, break each 18-hole contest into 3 (actually 4) 6-hole mini-matches (the 1st being alternate shot, the 2nd best ball, and the 3rd and 4th head-to-head faceoffs) with the usual scoring system (1 point for a win, .5 point for a tie, for a total of 8 points at stake between the 2 foursomes), and break ties through sudden-death stroke-play in which all 8 players play a hole and their scores are totalled up. That's 72 holes to determine who's in the gold vs. silver and bronze vs. nothing matches. With that much at stake, making them 27 holes (9-hole matches instead of 6-hole ones) gets us to the nice round number of 99 holes to determine the team medals. 99 holes over 5 days every 4 years for the top 8 teams (and 36 for the rest) isn't that much of a sacrifice, is it?

If this works as it should, we could eventually expand the team match-play portion to the top 16 teams and add another 18 holes into the mix, but let's not get ahead of ourselves, shall we?

[Update 1 (7:24 pm): Here are Hound Dog's thoughts on Olympic golf.]

[Update 2 (8/14/08, 12:30 pm): Here's Scott Michaux's Olympics suggestion--if it flies, the LPGA Championship could mirror the PGA Championship on this.]

AXA Ladies Weekend: Moromizato Joins the JLPGA Winners' Circle

I've always felt bad about ranking Shinobu Moromizato so highly this season, particularly when so many on the JLPGA have been playing better than she has. Well, the time for her to coast on her world rankings ended with her 2-shot win over Miho Koga at the AXA Ladies this past weekend.

Koga had the momentum coming into Sunday's round, having shot the only sub-70 round in the field the day before under terrible conditions, but Moromizato built a 4-shot lead over the 1st 8 holes of the final round and coasted to her 3rd career win on tour when Koga failed to mount a charge and closing 32s by Akiko Fukushima and So-Hee Kim ended up being too little, too late to worry the winner.

1st/-6 Moromizato (69-71-70)
2nd/-4 Koga (71-69-72)
3rd/-3 Fukushima (68-75-70)
T4/-2 Kim (73-73-68), Shiho Oyama (68-75-71), Hyun-Ju Shin (68-75-71), Erina Hara (71-71-72)
T8/-1 Pei-Lin Yu (73-73-69), Rui Kitada (74-71-70), Hiroko Yamaguchi (70-71-74)

T11/E Na Zhang (69-78-69), Tamie Durdin (73-71-72), Midori Yoneyama (71-72-73)
T16/+1 Ueda (68-76-73), Michiko Hattori (69-74-74)
T22/+2 Ayako Uehara (70-73-75)
T26/+3 Hiromi Mogi (71-76-72), Mayu Hattori (72-75-72)
T32/+4 Yuko Mitsuka (71-77-72)
T37/+5 Ritsuko Ryu (72-74-75), Gulbis (72-73-76), Akane Iijima (74-70-77)
T46/+6 Ji-Woo Lee (67-77-78)
T52/+7 Maiko Wakabayashi (71-77-75)

On a weekend when many top JLPGA players struggled to make the cut (or missed it, joining those who skipped the event), Moromizato's strong play has to be even sweeter than usual, as she beat last year's #1 on tour, Momoko Ueda, by 7 shots. Ueda, visiting from the LPGA, has been enjoying much more success there than Moromizato encountered in her brief sojourn in the States. I wonder if her 12-shot margin over Natalie Gulbis makes Moromizato wonder a little bit about trying the LPGA again?

I also wonder how the current state of the money list is affecting Ueda's schedule planning for the rest of the season. Will her 1st real disappointing result on the JLPGA motivate her to return more often or to focus even more on the LPGA?

1. Akiko Fukushima ￥79.48M
2. Mi-Jeong Jeon ￥60.65M
3. Ji-Hee Lee ￥59.03M
4. Miho Koga ￥54.20M
5. Ayako Uehara ￥48.43M
6. Sakura Yokomine ￥46.99M
7. Yuko Mitsuka ￥43.94M
8. Eun-A Lim ￥41.78M
9. Shiho Oyama ￥41.12M
10. Shinobu Moromizato ￥39.56M
11. Yukari Baba ￥38.80M
12. Bo-Bae Song ￥38.52M
13. Hyun-Ju Shin ￥37.95M
14. Chie Arimura ￥37.17M
15. Yuri Fudoh ￥36.37M
16. Akane Iijima ￥35.82M
17. Hiromi Mogi ￥35.66M
18. Hiroko Yamaguchi ￥34.32M
19. Erina Hara ￥34.32M
20. Miki Saiki ￥33.52M
21. Ji-Woo Lee ￥27.09M
22. Esther Lee ￥22.68M
23. Midori Yoneyama ￥20.42M
24. Momoko Ueda ￥18.62M
25. Na Zhang ￥17.45M

AXA Ladies Friday: Ji-Woo Lee Leads Ueda by 1 (and Gulbis by 5)

Momoko Ueda greeted the JLPGA's finest with a bogey-free 68 at the AXA Ladies, but she trails Ji-Woo Lee by 1, is tied with Akiko Fukushima, Shiho Oyama, and Hyun-Ju Shin, and leads Na Zhang and Shinobu Moromizato only by 1.

Here's the complete top 10 after the 1st round's action is complete:

1st/-5 Lee (67)
T2/-4 Fukushima, Oyama, Shin, Ueda, Mie Nakata, Yuka Shiroto, Momoyo Kawakubo (68)
T9/-3 Zhang, Moromizato, Michiko Hattori, Kurumi Dohi, Chiharu Yamaguchi (69)

Lee and Ueda owned the only bogey-free rounds in the bunch, while Hattori eagled the 502-yard par-5 1st hole and Oyama and Kawakubo made the most birdies in the field (6).

Right on their heels are a host of other JLPGA notables and 1 other player you may have heard of:

T14/-2 Ayako Uehara, Hiroko Yamaguchi (70)
T20/-1 Miho Koga, Yuko Mitsuka, Hiromi Mogi, Erina Hara, Midori Yoneyama, Maiko Wakabayashi (71)
T31/E Natalie Gulbis, Ritsuko Ryu, Mayu Hattori (72)

Yes, that Gulbis!

The rest will be struggling to make the cut:

T53/+2 Akane Iijima, Yun-Jye Wei (74)
T68/+3 Yukari Baba, Kaori Higo, Esther Lee, Yuki Ichinose (75)
T96/+6 Chie Arimura (78)

With #1 Mi-Jeong Jeon, #3 Sakura Yokomine, #5 Yuri Fudoh, #7 Miki Saiki, #9 Ji-Hee Lee, and #12 Bo-Bae Song sitting this one out, it's a prime opportunity for everyone within 5 shots of the lead to make their mark on the season.

News Flash: Carnage at the U.S. Women's Amateur

Yikes! Both Women's Amateur Public Links finalists are out. All but 2 of the American Curtis Cuppers are gone. Alexis Thompson, Victora Tanco, Tiffany Lua, and Ayaka Kaneko are kaput. Kimberly Kim, Marika Lendl, Jane Rah, Meghan Bolger, and Mallory Blackwelder never got in. That leaves Australian Stephanie Na, Americans Amanda Blumenherst and Allison Walshe, and Spaniards Azahara Munoz and Belen Mozo as the favorites heading into the next round....

Looking Ahead, Part 1: The End of the Season

As I mentioned before, there are only 6 full-field and 5 limited-field events on the LPGA schedule before the ADT Championship. Here are some things I'm looking forward to during that span of events.

The Million Dollar Club: There were 11 players in the million-dollar club in 2006, by far the best year in LPGA history. This year, we're probably an event or 2 away from matching or surpassing the second-best year ever, the last one, when 7 players made it and another 4 came within $50K or so of doing so. I think Na Yeon Choi will be the next to enter the club--making Ya Ni Tseng and her the 1st-ever pair of classmates to accomplish the feat in their rookie year and only the 2nd-ever to do it at all (after Lorena Ochoa and Suzann Pettersen last season)--before August is out. Helen Alfredsson may take until September. After that, we'll need Jeong Jang's wrist to hold up, Eun-Hee Ji to keep contending, and Suzann Pettersen to make a closing push somewhere close to last year's for the tie, and strong finishes from someone halfway there or better--or a surprise ADT winner--for the record. With 5 cut-less events in the last 12 and a million-dollar winner's check to go, the odds are good for the tie and decent for the win.

Personal Bests: In terms of season winnings, all the rookies plus Inbee Park, Helen Alfredsson, Eun-Hee Ji, Song-Hee Kim, Jane Park, Ji Young Oh, Teresa Lu, Sun Young Yoo, Leta Lindley, Minea Blomqvist, Jin Joo Hong, and Kristy McPherson have them already, among those in the top 50, at least. Paula Creamer and Seon Hwa Lee ought to establish theirs (they've already done so in terms of wins in a season) next, followed by Lindsey Wright, Jimin Kang, Christina Kim, and maybe even Brittany Lang (again among those in the top 50). Others will need great finishes to do it. Cristie Kerr had better get it going if she wants to extend her consecutive-$1M-season streak to 5. Can Lorena Ochoa get her 7th, 8th, and 9th wins before 2008 ends? I say yes. Can she break the $5M mark in season winnings? I don't think so. Can she finish with a sub-69 scoring average? No way.

Youth Movement: I expect to see the LPGA's youth movement continue to pick up steam. The season's home stretch favors healthier and fitter golfers, so don't be surprised if Ochoa, Creamer, Seon Hwa Lee, Tseng, or Ji gets another win or 3, Angela Park, Ai Miyazato, Na Yeon Choi, In-Kyung Kim, or Jane Park gets the 1st of her career, Jee Young Lee or Momoko Ueda follows up her non-member win with her 1st official one, and Pettersen or Pressel gets her 1st of the season. The Rookie of the Year race will go down to the wire, while Creamer, Tseng, and Lee have the best odds of pushing Ochoa for Player of the Year. I agree with Hound Dog's call in a recent podcast that Annika won't go beyond the nice round number of 72 career LPGA wins. I'm curious to hear his assessment of Michelle Wie's and Stacy Lewis's odds of avoiding Q-School, as well--but more on them and other actual and potential members of the Class of 2009 next post.

ADT Championship: So far this half-season, Eun-Hee Ji, Helen Alfredsson, and Ji-Yai Shin have qualified for the ADT Championship, joining the 15 1st-half qualifiers. That leaves 11 spots open (or 12 if someone already in wins the Canadian Women's Open), with 16 players within $100K of Giulia Sergas at #11. This race is wide open. Of those at the top of the list, only Angela Park is really safe, although Cristie Kerr and Ji Young Oh can breathe pretty easy. I'm rooting for Han, In-Kyung Kim, Miyazato, and Jane Park to stay in the top 11/12 and Stacy Prammanasudh, Momoko Ueda, Christina Kim, Mi Hyun Kim, and Morgan Pressel to join them! Of course there are 2 wild cards for the top 2 players on the pre-ADT money list who haven't already qualified and it would be totally cool if Junior Mints Teresa Lu and Sun Young Yoo got them, although it's hard to root against vets like Juli Inkster, Sophie Gustafson, Angela Stanford, and Candie Kung.

The Race for the Card: I've heard big changes in the way the LPGA handles membership and eligibility for tournaments are in the works, but haven't heard many firm details. As far as I know, members who finish in the top 90 on this year's money list get their card for next year and those who finish in the top 40 get it for the next 2 years. It's more complicated than that, though, as Hound Dog explains, so I'll let him sort the new rules out when they're announced....

Looking Back, Part 3: Top 30 Predictions

As you may have gathered by now, the week after the Women's British Open is a good time to pause, reflect on the LPGA season to date, and enjoy the U.S. Women's Amateur. But it's also a good time to look ahead to the end of the 2008 season and beyond. This post is my pivot between those 2 ways of looking at the LPGA. It's as good a time as any to revisit my top 30 predictions and see where I went wrong and what I got right so far.

So here is my predicted top 30, with each player's current place on the LPGA money list, Rolex Rankings (last week's--even Rolex is taking the week off!), Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index, and Hound Dog Top 30 listed in parentheses:

1. Lorena Ochoa (1, 1, 1, 1)
2. Paula Creamer (3, 4, 3, 3)
3. Seon Hwa Lee (6, 8, 12, 5)
4. Jee Young Lee (21, 15, 22, 18)
5. Annika Sorenstam (2, 2, 4, 2)
6. Morgan Pressel (28, 17, 37, 29)
7. Jeong Jang (9, 9, 9, 9)
8. Hee-Won Han (16, 28, 11, 13)
9. Se Ri Pak (71, 29, 79, n.r.)
10. Mi Hyun Kim (39, 20, 15, 23)
11. Angela Park (12, 14, 28, n.r.)
12. Stacy Prammanasudh (24, 21, 23, 19)
13. Cristie Kerr (14, 7, 7, 15)
14. Natalie Gulbis (52, 36, 41, n.r.)
15. Suzann Pettersen (11, 3, 2, 7)
16. Ai Miyazato (34, 37, 85, n.r.)
17. In-Kyung Kim (29, 40, 56, n.r.)
18. Momoko Ueda (35, 16, 16, n.r.)
19. Eun-Hee Ji (10, 18, 13, 11)
20. Jane Park (17, 41, 40, 20)
21. Karrie Webb (13, 6, 10, 10)
22. Brittany Lincicome (86, 44, 127, n.r.)
23. Christina Kim (19, 38, 17, 16)
24. Shi Hyun Ahn (50, 34, 51, n.r.)
25. Angela Stanford (27, 26, 27, 28)
26. Juli Inkster (33, 19, 14, n.r.)
27. Meena Lee (36, 63, 48, n.r.)
28. Laura Davies (87, 54, 82, n.r.)
29. Sophie Gustafson (32, 33, 24, n.r.)
30. Inbee Park (5, 12, 31, 6)

I'll leave it to my competition to give their own progress reports. (Mulligan Stu is welcome to guest blog here any time now that he's stepped away from running Waggle Room.)

But obviously Ya Ni Tseng, Na Yeon Choi, Inbee Park, Helen Alfredsson, Eun-Hee Ji, Karrie Webb, Song-Hee Kim, Ji Young Oh, Karen Stupples, Maria Hjorth, Laura Diaz, Teresa Lu, Sun Young Yoo, and Candie Kung are exceeding my expectations by a lot--and Annika Sorenstam, Suzann Pettersen, and Christina Kim by a little. And while Seon Hwa Lee, Jeong Jang, Hee-Won Han, Stacy Prammanasudh, Juli Inkster, and Sophie Gustafson need reasonable improvements to meet my expectations, Jee Young Lee, Morgan Pressel, Se Ri Pak, Mi Hyun Kim, Natalie Gulbis, Ai Miyazato, In-Kyung Kim, Momoko Ueda, Brittany Lincicome, Shi Hyun Ahn, Meena Lee, and Laura Davies have a much longer ways to go.

Can you believe there are only 6 more full-field events left on the LPGA schedule? And only 5 limited-field ones before the most-likely-last-ever ADT Championship? There's still a chance for the Player of the Year race to get as close as the Rookie of the Year race promises to be for the rest of the season. More on all these matters once I start looking ahead in this LPGA-less week.

[Update 1 (8/7/08, 3:36 am): Heee-ere's Hound Dog's! The interesting question now is, who among our so-far underperformers will step up at the end of the season. I have a lot of confidence in everyone except Pak, Lincicome, and Davies, although I'll admit I'm worried about Lee and Pressel right now. But when I look at the list of the players I underestimated, I don't see too many candidates for getting passed. Certainly not Tseng, Choi, Park, and Ji. Any of the others? Well, let's just say my picks had better pick up their pace! Outside the top 12, the money list is pretty bunched still, so just about anything can happen!]

News Flash: Momoko Ueda in the AXA Ladies

I've been wondering why Momoko Ueda is not listed in the field for the Canadian Women's Open next week and I just found one key piece of the puzzle that is her 2008 schedule. She's going to be playing in her 3rd JLPGA event of the season in the AXA Ladies this week. From what I can tell, this looks like a 1-shot deal, but with the LPGA's limited schedule in August and September and the JLPGA's packed one through November (including 3 of their 4 majors), and no clear heir apparent dominating the JLPGA as of yet, I wonder if she's interested in seeing how high up the money list she can climb. She's currently #24! More on the globe-trotting possibilities for many of the world's best women golfers in a few days.

Looking Back, Part 2: Women's Golf's Youth Movement

When I profiled the LPGA's Young Guns back in January, I had no idea that the year's big story would be their emergence as regular contenders, multiple winners, and major champions on tour. As I'll be writing about Women's British Open champion Ji-Yai Shin once I start looking ahead later this week, I'll focus on the biggest stories from the classes of 2006-2008. And, yes, most of them are from Asia, but I trust you're as tired as I am of them being talked about en masse, so I'll take the liberty of breaking them down here by individual player rather than nationality and focus on their performances over their ethnicity.

Ya Ni Tseng
She's the 1st rookie to win a major since Se Ri Pak did it in 1998 and the 1st to break the $1M mark in season winnings since Paula Creamer did it in her rookie season back in 2005. In fact, she's on track to score lower and make more this season than Creamer did in hers. The scary thing is, she already could have won much more (often, $$$). Take a look at the list of Rolex First-Time Winners this season--2 others, Louise Friberg and Ji Young Oh, have come from behind to deny her--plus she has 2 other runner-ups, 1 last week and the other in the Ginn Open (where she was the 36-hole leader after shooting a tournament-record 64 in the 2nd round and hung tough against Lorena Ochoa over the weekend until the tournament's last 6 holes). If she had played just a little better on a few Sundays this season, that is, we would be buzzing about how close the Player of the Year race is, not the Rookie of the Year race. When Annika Sorenstam suggests you may be the next #1 in women's golf, you know you're having an extraordinary rookie season. And Tseng has accomplished all this playing hurt pretty much all season.

Still, there's a cautionary tale in the list of 2006 Rolex First-Time Winners--of the 5 players on it, only Seon Hwa Lee has gone on to win again. And the 3 young gun 1st-time winners from last season are still in search of their 2nd win, including major winner Morgan Pressel.

But look again at the company Tseng's keeping in the above paragraphs: Pak, Creamer, Ochoa, Sorenstam, Lee, Pressel. How could I have ranked her only 3rd in her class in my pre-season post? And left her off my predicted 2008 top 30? Silly me, I thought she'd need a couple of years' worth of experience under her belt to learn how to win on tour.

Seon Hwa Lee
She's got 4 career wins and is her generation's 1st $3M woman. Although her year hasn't been as impressive as Tseng's thus far, statistically speaking ($1.04M in winnings to $1.26M, 71.15 scoring average to 70.27, 3.15 birdies per round to 4.00, 56.7% of her rounds under par to 66.7%, 8 fewer rounds in the 60s), Lee is ahead in wins this season (2 to 1) and wins per season (1.33 to 1.00). In addition to showing she knows how to win coming from behind and in the midst of a free-for-all, she's proven her consistency and durability over her nearly 3 seasons on tour and has been at the head of a very talented Junior Mint class almost since I first started ranking the '06ers. She's still criminally under the radar of most golf writers, but not for long. When you look back at her career arc--or consider that both her greens in regulation and putts per green in regulation rates this year are off from the standards she set in her 1st 2 LPGA seasons--you wouldn't be at all surprised if she were to pick up a couple more wins before 2008 is done and jump into the top 40 on the career money list.

Inbee Park
She got off to a terrible start this season, but came on strong since getting a top 10 at the Safeway International and capped off a career year with a flawless win at the U.S. Women's Open. She's succeeded at every level in the U.S., from the AJGA (where she was Junior Player of the Year in 2002 and a 5-time Junior All-American) to the USGA (where she was the U.S. Girls champion in 2002 and runner-up in 2003 and 2005, as well as a semi-finalist at the 2003 U.S. Women's Amateur) to the Futures Tour (where she was #3 on the money list in 2006). Even in a disappointing rookie season, she finished T4 at the 2007 U.S. Women's Open and made over $300K. So while I mentioned that she could have a great sophomore year ahead of her back in January, little did I suspect that she'd vault all the way to the head of her class.

And here's the coolest thing. Even though she's improved even more than Morgan Pressel did from her 2nd year to her 1st, she still has lots of room for further development in her game. Even though she's only hit about 62% of her greens in regulation this season (T91 on tour!) and isn't even all that accurate off the tee (only hitting about 67% of her fairways to rank 74th on tour), she's 10th in birdies made and making them at a rate of 3.54 per round, thanks to her tops-on-tour 1.74 putts per green in regulation rate. If her ballstriking ever were to match her short game, watch out! As it is, she still misses too many cuts (including last week at the near-defenseless Sunningdale) to be a threat to Ochoa just yet. But give her time.

Eun-Hee Ji
Right on Park's heels, however, is Ji, who made a cool quarter of a million dollars playing in only 4 events on the LPGA in her rookie season (and finished 2nd on the KLPGA money list to Ji-Yai Shin). After an uneven 1st half to this season, Ji has taken off since her surprise win at the Wegmans to become one of the hottest golfers on the planet. She had a great chance to chase down Paula Creamer at the Farr just as she did Suzann Pettersen for her 1st win, but couldn't quite do it again. Still, she's crossed the $1M mark in career winnings in only 22 LPGA events and knows how to go low on the weekend.

And, like Park, she has lots of room for improvement in her ballstriking, hitting only about 64% of her greens in regulation (63rd on tour) yet making the most of her opportunities with 1.76 putts per green in regulation (T3) and 3.31 birdies per round. She's already an pretty accurate driver of the ball, so the culprit must be her iron play. If she can find more consistency in that area of her game, she could well become the 5th repeat winner on the LPGA this season and break the $1M mark in season winnings.

Na Yeon Choi
Although she started the season as a non-exempt player on tour, she quickly established herself as one of the top players in her rookie class with her T6 finish at the Kraft Nabisco Championship sandwiched by T5 finishes at the MasterCard Classic and Corona Championship. If Tseng weren't having such an incandescent season--and if Choi could have sealed the deal at the Sybase, State Farm Classic, or Evian Masters, or avoided faltering at the Ginn Tribute--she would have already broken the $1M mark in season earnings and be talked about as if she were a lock for the Rookie of the Year. As it is, she only needs to make about $35K to make the Class of 2008 the 1st in LPGA history with 2 $1M winners in their 1st season on tour and could still win the ROY race.

Just think what she could do the rest of this season if she starts finding the fairway off the tee a little bit more often. She's already 5th on tour in greens in regulation (hitting 68% of them) and has putted well enough to be 1st in total birdies (she's making them at a rate of 3.91 per round). So it's no surprise that she's under par about 66% of the time and under 70 about 44%--both in the top 5--or that she's also in the top 5 both in scoring average and top 10 percentage. She was #4 on the KLPGA money list last season--how high can she finish on the LPGA? Consider this: her worst finish all season was in her 1st tournament of the season, a T32 in Hawaii, and her T21 at the WBO broke an 8-event top 20 streak.

Angela Park
Back in January, I thought Park would be the biggest story of the Super Sophs and the 1st to break through for a win. The runaway Rookie of the Year last season was involved in the 1st controversy of this season, bitterly protesting the slow play penalty she incurred while in contention at the SBS Open. She was MIA for a few months after that while she reportedly tinkered with her swing, looking for more length off the tee, but ever since her T3 at the U.S. Women's Open, she's been on fire, with other great chances to win in Arkansas and Evian. So it's safe to say she's back. Look for her to contend often before the year is out.

If she can improve on her greens in regulation rate (under 64%, 66th on tour), she should start making even more birdies than she has been already (3.39 per round) and finally get that 1st win. If she does, she'll break the $1M barrier in season winnings and cross the $2M mark in career winnings, joining Seon Hwa Lee and Julieta Granada as the only players in their generation to achieve the feat.

Morgan Pressel, Jee Young Lee, Ai Miyazato
Unexpectedly struggling by their high standards for most of this season, these top Junior Mints should be giving Seon Hwa Lee more of a fight at its close. They're threats to win any tournament they enter. I'd be shocked if Morgan and Ai-chan didn't join Jee Young in the $2M club in career winnings before the season is out.

In-Kyung Kim, Song-Hee Kim, Jane Park, Ji Young Oh
Who would have thought at the start of the season that Oh would have gotten her 1st win before this stellar group of her classmates? Of them, In-Kyung still has the best chance to break the $1M mark in career winnings this year, in part because of her excellent rookie season and in part because she's got a lot of momentum from the European swing. Because of all their fine play this season, the top 7 Super Sophs are outperforming the top 7 Junior Mints. With Sun Young Yoo, Teresa Lu, Minea Blomqvist, Kyeong Bae, and H.J. Choi threatening to pass the slumping Julieta Granada, however, it's fair to say that the Junior Mints are deeper than the Super Sophs.

Momoko Ueda, Hee Young Park
These celebrated LPGA rookies from the JLPGA and KLPGA have been overshadowed by the season-long Tseng-Choi showdown in the ROY race, but have been playing very well of late and could well qualify for the ADT Championship. Don't be surprised if they make up ground on them as the season ends and have fantastic sophomore seasons. And given how so many players in the previous 2 classes, both heralded and unheralded, have stepped up their games in their 2nd and 3rd seasons, there's no reason that the Class of 2008 won't match up well against them for years to come. Look for Louise Friberg, Amy Yang, Shanshan Feng, Carolina Llano, Ashleigh Simon, and others to step up.

So that's 15+ players to watch the rest of this season and in years to come. Get to know their names. They won't be going away.

Looking Back, Part 1: AnnikaWatch Update

Much has been made of Annika Sorenstam's struggles since her perfect tournament at the Michelob Ultra and subsequent announcement that she would be stepping away from competitive golf at the end of the season. Sure, she hasn't added to her total of 3 wins, has had to settle for 3rd at the LPGA Championship due to bad putting and hasn't had a top 10 since, has finished T24 in the last 2 majors of the season, and as a result is in serious danger of getting passed by a passel of young guns on the money list. So, yeah, that #1 vs. #1A showdown we were hoping to enjoy all season between Annika and Lorena hasn't been happening. She's no longer quite the dominant figure she was at the peak of her career.

But let's keep Annika's recent struggles in perspective. There's a reason, after all, why she's still #2 in the race for Player of the Year, #2 in wins, #2 in scoring average, #2 in percentage of rounds under par, #3 in top 10 percentage, #3 in greens in regulation, #6 in birdies per round, and #6 in putts per green in regulation. That she's maintained this level of excellence after going from being one of the LPGA's longest to solidly in the middle of the pack in driving distance since coming back from her back and neck injuries (she's lost 17 yards off the tee on average since her 2004 season) is a testament to just how strong her overall game still is.

Just ask her playing partners what they think of her game, if you are inclined to doubt the season-long stats. In head-to-head competition, she's only been beaten 28 times and tied 9 times, while winning 62 times. Only 6 players have beaten her twice. If you want to know why she said of Ya Ni Tseng that "I wouldn't be surprised if she was number one in four years," well, just count how many players have beaten her 3 times and are undefeated against her.

Ya Ni Tseng (3-0)
Hee-Won Han (1-0)
Catriona Matthew (1-0)
Amy Hung (1-0)
Maria Hjorth (1-0-1)
Mi Hyun Kim (1-0-1)
Juli Inkster (2-1)
Karrie Webb (2-1-1)
Jeong Jang (2-1-1)

7 have broken even:

Paula Creamer (2-2-1)
Lorena Ochoa (3-3)
Jee Young Lee (1-1)
Lindsey Wright (1-1)
Minea Blomqvist (1-1)
Helen Alfredsson (1-1)
Catrin Nilsmark (1-1)

But mostly playing against her has been an exercise in futility (more so for some than for others):

Morgan Pressel (1-2)
Sun Young Yoo (1-2)
Cristie Kerr (1-3)
Momoko Ueda (1-4-1)
Stacy Prammanasudh (0-1-1)
Lorie Kane (0-1)
Pat Hurst (0-1)
Na Yeon Choi (0-1)
In-Kyung Kim (0-1)
Teresa Lu (0-1)
Young Kim (0-1)
Il Mi Chung (0-1)
Jin Joo Hong (0-1)
Kristy McPherson (0-1)
Meaghan Francella (0-1)
Reilley Rankin (0-1)
Charlotte Mayorkas (0-1)
Erica Blasberg (0-1)
Marisa Baena (0-1)
Michelle Ellis (0-1)
Laura Davies (0-2)
Laura Diaz (0-2)
Christina Kim (0-2)
Ai Miyazato (0-2)
Diana D'Alessio (0-2)
Eva Dahllof (0-2)
Seon Hwa Lee (0-3)
Natalie Gulbis (0-4-1)
Suzann Pettersen (0-4)

If I were a tournament organizer, I'd be pairing Annika with the players in the 1st 2 categories above--especially those 6 undefeated ones. I'm sure she'd love to improve on her winning percentage and shrink the number of players with a winning or even record against her before she hangs up her hat!

Women's British Open Sunday: Complete Control

With all the leaders now on the back 9 of the Old Course in the final round of the Women's British Open, there are 14 players double digits under par and 6 within 3 shots of leader Ji-Yai Shin's -15 mark at the turn, it was still anyone's tournament an hour ago. But now that she has now opened up a 3-shot lead on Ai Miyazato, who's gotten to -15, and a 4-shot lead on Yuri Fudoh and Ya Ni Tseng, who stand at -14, the right title for this post has leaped out at me. But let's roll out a few of the contenders from The Clash's song titles to talk about the rest of the field.

Stay Free
Former KLPGA and current JLPGA stalwart Eun-A Lim was -7 through her 1st 10 holes today and held on for a 65 that vaulted her all the way into a tie for 25th at -6. LPGA Super Soph Kristy McPherson matched her total with a 33 on the front and a 32 on the back, both bogey-free, to jump all the way to T21 right now at -7. Starting before 9 am this morning, they showed the rest of the field what they had to do if they wanted to catch the lead pack.

What's My Name
And many great players responded. Angela Park (67, -5, T34), Annika Sorenstam (68, -6, T25), Jee Young Lee (66, -8, T17 right now), Paula Creamer (67, -10, T9 right now), Hee Won Han (67, -10, T9), In-Kyung Kim (67, -10, T9), and Karrie Webb (68, -10, T9) all posted great final rounds from the middle of the pack to remind everyone not to take them lightly the rest of the season.

Overpowered by Funk
Unfortunately, some of my favorite players got off to bad starts. Mi Hyun Kim started double bogey-bogey and has struggled to recover ever since. Seon Hwa Lee started par-double bogey and even an eagle on the 10th and 4 straight birdies and counting since the 12th will not be enough to get her into contention. Lorena Ochoa got off to another fast start with a 33 on the front to get to -11, but again stalled on the back and needs to par the 18th to assure a top 10.

I'm So Bored with the U.S.A.
Once again, Cristie Kerr is making a lot of birdies and a lot of bogeys. At -12, she can still move into the top 5, but a win is out of reach unless she goes off and everyone ahead of her collapses. Natalie Gulbis, meanwhile, has eagled the 1st hole on each side but has made no birdies and 2 bogeys, so she's stuck at -11. And Juli Inkster is fading.

The Right Profile
Just as I predicted last night, Shin is taking control of the tournament, Fudoh is stalling, and Tseng is charging. The biggest--and happiest--surprise for me is that Ai-chan is doing just what she needed to do to give herself a chance to win. It's going to come down to how well she can play the final 4 holes.... It would really be too bad if she were to be the only player in the field to break 70 all 4 rounds and not win, but that just shows how good Shin is.

OK, I won't be back until the evening at the earliest. Feel free to give me updates in comments!

[Update 1 (8:48 pm): Wow, I guess I ought to apologize to Ai-chan for double jinxing her--1st with the call that no one will break 70 all 4 rounds, then with the complaint that even if she were to accomplish the feat, she still wouldn't get the win. That was one costly double bogey on 18! Oh well, I still believe her 1st LPGA win isn't far away.

But how about that Shin?! Hound Dog notes that she's got at least a year exemption on the LPGA (he wonders if non-member major winners get more than the usual year). What's also worth noting is that Shin now has membership on the 4 major tours in women's professional golf for 2009. She can make up her schedule completely as she pleases. So she could, for instance, take the KLPGA's young guns on in their majors, take Fudoh and company on in the JLPGA majors, focus on the big events that don't conflict in the LPGA, and enter some big-purse LET events if she's at all hesitant about culture shock or language barriers and up to the world traveller's lifestyle. Or she could jump in feet first and join the rest of the LPGA's young guns in vying to see who among them can first chase down Lorena Ochoa.

Now it's up to Michelle Wie to step up in the Canadian Women's Open. With Shin, Vicky Hurst, and Stacy Lewis likely to be the most prominent members of the Class of 2009, Michelle had better get serious about competing with her peers, or they'll continue to leave her in the dust!]

[Update 2 (8:52 pm): Also worth wondering is whether Shin gets into the ADT Championship with her win. And the answer is...yes! Awesome!!]

[Update 3 (9:27 pm): Be sure to check out Average Golfer's brisk recap, Annika's moving reflections, and the celebrations over at Seoul Sisters.com.]

Women's British Open Saturday: Career Opportunities

There are career opportunities galore on moving day in the Women's British Open for those at the top of the leaderboard. Let's use some more song titles from The Clash to organize our consideration of them.

Rock the Casbah
This one's for the Americans. Like Juli Inkster, who's gotten her campaign for her 8th career major off to a great start with an eagle-birdie opening to take the lead at -12. Or Cristie Kerr, who's only 3 back in her quest for her 2nd major after birdies on 3 of her 1st 8 holes. And let's not forget Natalie Gulbis (-9 through 8) and Stacy Prammanasudh (-6 through 15), who would love to get their 1st major at Sunningdale.

Should I Stay or Should I Go
This one's for Lorena Ochoa, who's playing like the world #1 again after moving to -11 and a tie for 2nd after a fantastic 32 on the front. It's also for Hall of Famer Karrie Webb, who gave herself many chances to make a big move today after 6 birdies in her 1st 10 holes, but who couldn't sustain her momentum down the stretch and finished with a 69 to fall to T18 right now at -6. Major #3 for the former or #8 for the latter would taste equally sweet.

Clash City Rockers
This one's for the really young guns. Like Na Yeon Choi, who's come so close so often this season and who was -6 through 14 before bogeys at the 17th and 18th dropped her to -8, 1 shot behind fellow LPGA rookie Ya Ni Tseng, who's -4 through 13 in her attempt to capture her 2nd major of the season. Super Soph Eun-Hee Ji has been knocking at the door often following her win at the Wegmans this summer, and she's also in the mix at -9 after a bogey-free 1st 11 holes, along with the JLPGA's Bo-Bae Song, who's not only bouncing back in a big way from 2 straight missed cuts heading into the WBO, but is showing remarkable staying power.

The Magnificent Seven
That leaves the 7 players with impressive track records but not quite Hall of Fame careers to date. Head of the class is the JLPGA's leading career money winner, Yuri Fudoh (-11 through 8), who's looking for some redemption in the majors, where she's never finished in the top 10. Next up is Ji-Yai Shin (-11 through 8), who's broken almost every single KLPGA record on the books in her brief career. Mi Hyun Kim has been recovering from off-season knee surgery all season, but her 67 today has brought her into the mix at -9. Batting clean-up is 14-time winner on the JLPGA, Ai Miyazato, who fired a bogey-free 33 on the front and kept it going with a birdie on the 10th to get to -11. Next is Hee-Won Han, who's lurking at -6 with a few holes left to play, tied with Suzann Pettersen. Finally, Momoko Ueda is right in the mix at -8 through 11 today.

More later!

[Update 1 (1:59 pm): In the spirit of my 1st commenter, I offer:

I Fought the Course (and the Course Won)
Fudoh and Shin had a great chance to open up a big lead on the field, but late bogeys by each kept a lot of players who also stumbled down the stretch right in the midst of the year's last major. Fudoh bogeyed the 17th to post a 69--her 3rd sub-70 round in a row--and end the day at -13. Shin, meanwhile, made her 1st bogey of the day on the last hole to finish with a 70 and fall 1 off Fudoh's pace. That leaves Miyazato as the only other player in the field to break 70 3 times in a row, but her 68 included her only bogey of the day, at the 17th, to drop 2 behind Fudoh. Kerr had it to -11 through 14 but bogeyed the 18th for a 70 that put her in a tie for 4th at -10 with Inkster, who made hers on the 17th for a 71.

Other stumbles, though, were a little more serious. Mi Hyun Kim, who played the last 4 in -1 and the back in 33 to post her 67, found herself in a tie for 6th at -9 with several players who couldn't finish as strongly as she did--Ji made a bogey on the 16th, Tseng on the 18th, and Gulbis on both. Matching Choi's 2-over-par finish over the final 4 holes was Ochoa, whose 39 on the back dropped her into a tie at -8 with Choi and Ueda, thanks to her only bogey of the day on her final hole. Seon Hwa Lee recovered from a 3-hole bogey train on the 11th through 13th with birdies on the 14th and 16th to salvage a 70 and keep herself in contention at -7. The only player to match Kim's finish was LPGA rookie Hee Young Park, who was -4 over her final 12 holes to tie Lee at -7.

But the rest of the field didn't just stumble--they fell. Matching Webb's fall to -6 was Anja Monke, who bogeyed her last 2 holes. Even worse was Bo-Bae Song, who was -10 through the 10th but ended up tied with them at 15th. Ji Young Oh pulled even with them after a slow start, thanks to a -3 finish over the last 10 holes. Meanwhile, In-Kyung Kim got it to -8 through 10, but fell all the way to -5 at the end of the day, joining Han (+2 over her final 4 holes) and Pettersen (bogey on the 16th). Matching Pettersen's big numbers from her 1st round was Shi Hyun Ahn, who followed up an early triple bogey yesterday with a late double bogey today to drop her to -5. They all were caught by Ji-Hee Lee (68) and Paula Creamer (70), who also made a bogey each down the stretch, along with Katherine Hull (69), who didn't.

I'm Not Down
This is shaping up to be a classic free-for-all. As well as Fudoh is playing the par 4s and Miyazato the par 5s, I'm sad to say that the odds are against this pair breaking 70 for the 4th straight time. So if Shin doesn't go low again, the winning score could be as high as -13 to -15, which gives everyone I've mentioned a chance to win, provided they come as close to breaking the tournament record as they need to in order to get there.

On the other hand, Miyazato is the only one among the 5 players double digits under par who hasn't visited the mid-60s this week, so if she can join them tomorrow, the tournament--and her 1st LPGA win--could well be hers. But with Kerr, Inkster, and Kim due to break 70 again (only having done it once so far), and with Tseng, Choi, Ji, and Gulbis just as due to visit the mid-60s, she's likely to have some company even if she does go low. Not to mention the fact that Fudoh and Shin have shown few signs that Sunningdale will ambush them on Sunday....

Me, I'm rooting all-out for Ai-chan, but if I were to be happy with anyone beating her tomorrow, it would have to be Ji-Yai Shin, who's said all along she plans to join the LPGA in 2009. What better way for her to avoid trying to match Ai-chan's and Jane Park's recent dominating performances in the LPGA Q-School?]

[Update 2 (2:05 pm): Whoops! Forgot a few more collapses.

Straight to Hell
Laura Diaz (-3, T34): 38-37 75.
Candie Kung (-3, T34): a pair of consecutive bogeys on each side for a 74.
Sophie Gustafson (-4, T26): matches Kung's 37-37 74.
Stacy Prammanasudh (-4, T26): 2 double bogeys in her last 4 holes for a 72.

I wonder what Dottie Pepper would say.

And, yes, Moira Dunn shot the worst round of the day, a 77, and finds herself in a dogfight with Laura Davies to avoid last place. Golf is cruel.]

[Update 3 (3:51 pm): Ryan Ballengee hits the high points in his preview of Sunday's round, while Annika Sorenstam has been blogging the WBO.]

[Update 4 (10:58 pm): Here's Average Golfer's recap and LPGA.com's notes and interviews page. Shame on the LPGA for not mentioning the 6 runner-up finishes and 12 top 5s in majors by Ayako Okamoto.]

[Update 5 (11:20 pm): Interesting tidbit from the round 2 interviews that LPGA.com included and ASAP Sports didn't when I checked yesterday. Ji-Yai Shin mentioned that since she already had JLPGA membership due to her win there this season, she's planning to play in Japan full-time next year. My guess is those plans will change if she wins this one!]

[Update 6 (11:48 pm): Ji-Yai Shin is the only player within 5 shots of the lead to actually be under par over the final 4 holes of the Old Course this week. Distance isn't as much of a factor as I would have thought. The very long Ochoa and Tseng have played this stretch the worst of all and the very short Mi Hyun Kim would have played it by far the best if she could have bought a par in any of her 1st 3 rounds on the par-3 15th. Yet another reason to peg her as the favorite heading into Sunday's round!]

[Update 7 (11:57 pm): If you want a come-from-behind pick, I'd go with Ya Ni Tseng. She's actually scored the best among the top 12 over the last 8 holes, which is even more impressive than it sounds, given she's scored among the worst of the bunch over the final 4. So she has a great chance to go low over the 1st 14 and then finally figure out how to play those last 4. If she were to post, say, a 65, that would put her at -16 and put a lot of pressure on the final groups.... She's also in the best possible pairing for her, playing with Eun-Hee Ji, who's been playing great lately and is neither that much more experienced than Tseng nor her Rookie of the Year race rival, Na Yeon Choi, who's in the group ahead of her.]

Women's British Open Friday: London's Burning

As you can see from LPGA.com's recap of the 2nd round of the Women's British Open, the world's best women golfers are burning up Sunningdale's Old Course. The biggest fires come at the top of the leaderboard and the bottom of the cut line. There are 16 players within 5 shots of co-leaders Yuri Fudoh and Ji-Yai Shin, who tied Jeong Jang's 36-hole WBO record of -10. Meanwhile, Se Ri Pak, Morgan Pressel, Inbee Park, Song-Hee Kim, Angela Stanford, Lindsey Wright, Amy Yang, and everyone else at +2 or worse will not be playing this weekend, along with Jang herself, who withdrew from the tournament.

Although there are many experienced players at the top of the leaderboard, they are once again facing another onslaught from the world's young guns. To be sure, the Old Guard--including Fudoh, Juli Inkster (who finished strong despite heavy afternoon wind gusts with 2 birdies in her final 5 holes for a 70 that brought her to -9), Cristie Kerr (whose awesome 65 brought her to -8), Natalie Gulbis (who got to -7 early and ended up there after once again losing momentum over the final 8 holes), Lorena Ochoa (who closed with a 33 to get to -7), Laura Diaz (who stayed at -6 despite eagling 3 holes), Sophie Gustafson (who made 6 birdies but could only manage a 69 that brought her to -6), and Candie Kung (who bogeyed the last hole to turn a 66 into a 67 and fall back to -5 for the tournament)--accounted very well for themselves. In fact, 4 of them (Fudoh, Gulbis, Ochoa, and Gustafson) have broken 70 twice, outgunning the Young Guns (of whom only Shin, Bo-Bae Song, and Ai Miyazato have matched the feat).

The best of the rest of the young guns have come close to going below 70 twice. Momoko Ueda bogeyed her last 3 holes to drop like Diaz did back to a 72 and a -6 total for the tournament. Eun-Hee Ji made her 3 straight bogeys earlier on the front, sandwiched between birdies on the 10th and 14th, to end up with a 70 (-6). Jane Park bogeyed 2 in a row on the front and ran out of holes on the back, where she closed with a great 33 to shoot a 70 (-5). And Ji Young Oh had a ghost of a chance to break 70 today after eagling the 10th, but finished +2 over her last 8 holes for a 73 (-5). They got caught by In-Kyung Kim (who fired a 33 on the back on the way to her 68), Seon Hwa Lee (who birdied 2 of her last 5 holes for her 68), and Ya Ni Tseng (who birdied her 1st 5 holes in a row on the back to come back for a 69). These players had better stay hot, as vets like Suzann Pettersen, Mi Hyun Kim, Hee-Won Han, Stacy Prammanasudh, and Karen Stupples and young guns like Na Yeon Choi and Hee Young Park are lurking at -4, while Paula Creamer and Karrie Webb are at -3.

With the Olympics fast approaching, the fires of sports nationalism are also burning. There are 6 American (counting Kung, who's a U.S. citizen), 6 Korean, 3 Japanese, 2 Taiwanese (counting Kung twice here, as well), 1 Mexican, and 1 Swedish player in the top 18. While the majority of them make their home on the LPGA these days, 4 are or have been affiliated with the JLPGA, 3 that I know of who are or have been affiliated with the KLPGA, and only 1 who has been affiliated with the LET. Most of the LET's current top players faded badly today. Sure, Paula Marti (-4), Anja Monke (-4), Marianne Skarpnord (-4), Trish Johnson (-2), and Gwladys Nocera (-2) are exceeding expectations, but Johanna Head (76, -2), Becky Brewerton (73, -1), and Rebecca Hudson (76, -1) fell off even the chase pack's pace today. Even Europe's battle-tested LPGA veterans are having trouble at Sunningdale this year. Maria Hjorth (-1), Catriona Matthew (-1), Annika Sorenstam (E), Becky Morgan (E), Janice Moodie (+1), Mhairi McKay (+1), Laura Davies (+1), and Helen Alfredsson (+1) barely made the cut. And promising young European players like Karine Icher, Louise Friberg, Louise Stahle, Linda Wessberg, Sandra Gal, Melissa Reid, and Kiran Matharu joined Yang in missing it.

So much for any notion of an anti-LET bias in the Rolex Rankings or that the JLPGA is overrated. While the badly-slumping and perhaps injured Miki Saiki missed the cut, as did Yukari Baba, who really underperformed at Sunningdale, Eun-A Lim (+1) barely made it, and the normally-steady Ji-Hee Lee stumbled to a 75 today (-1), Bo-Bae Song, who had no momentum entering the WBO, having missed the cut in her Evian Masters and Stanley Ladies tune-ups, has joined Fudoh, Miyazato, and Ueda at the top of the leaderboard. We'll have to see how the weekend play influences these international and cross-tour comparisons.

Me, I'm just overjoyed that Moira Dunn (-1) battled back to make the cut and that my 2 other favorite players, Ai-chan and the Stone Buddha, are in contention, along with others I really like from Momo-chan to Inky and Jane Park to Ya Ni Tseng. It's going to be a very interesting moving day tomorrow!

[Update 1 (7:21 pm): Robert Millward does a decent job for the AP, but I appreciated most his information that the reason for Jang's WD was her wrist injury.]

[Update 2 (8/2/08, 10:01 am): Much more worth your reading time are posts by Daniel Wexler, Average Golfer, Geoff Shackelford, and Golf Girl. And please devote a visit and a note of appreciation to Mulligan Stu, who's stepping away from Waggle Room.]