Thursday, May 7, 2009

The Best of the Young Guns: Super Soph Edition, April 2009

Better late than never: here's my updated ranking of last year's LPGA rookie class, just in time for the Michelob Ultra. No desire to throw cold water on Ron Sirak's expertly-done hyping of the Solheim Cup-inspired American surge on the LPGA, but I have to doubt he'd sound so optimistic if the winners of the U.S.-Europe team showdown had to face the winners of a Team Korea vs. Team Japan Kyoraku/Pinx Cup competition. (Yeah, yeah, it got snowed out last year, but that just bolsters my case that the JLPGA and KLPGA should rethink the event.) (And, yes, even following up on my idea would not be inclusive enough, but gotta start somewhere and I can see the U.S. team becoming a Team Americas, Europe teaming up with Africa, Korea teaming up with mainland Asia, and Japan teaming up with the Asian-Pacific.) Sorry for the double digression there: my point is that the Class of 2008 is not the place to look for American dominance!

Simply the Best

1. Ya Ni Tseng. Already recognized as one of the top players in the world, she hasn't finished worse than 17th in 7 starts this season. But when will she finally get her 2nd win?
2. Na Yeon Choi. Still pitching a perfect game when it comes to making cuts, she's fallen further behind her Rookie of the Year rival in every major stat. But with Tseng's difficulty in notching win #2, it wouldn't take much for Choi to make up a lot of ground in a little time.

The Contenders
3. Momoko Ueda. For someone who just had her wisdom teeth removed, she's been playing all right, but unless she picks up her game, she's going to fall further down the world rankings. She's in little danger of falling down these rankings, though, as most of her peers are mired in sophomore slumps that make hers look miniscule in comparison.
4. Hee Young Park. Except for 2 fantastic rounds, she doesn't have much to speak of this season, but they certainly show what kind of talent she has.
5. Shanshan Feng. At least her bad start to this season isn't as horrific as her terrible start to her rookie season, but that's not much of a silver lining....
6. Amy Yang. Still nt playing close to her potential on the LPGA, but at least she's making cuts at a rate that suggests she can hang with the best once she starts playing like she's capable of.

Quantum Leap Candidates
7. Louise Friberg. She's going through what Meaghan Francella did after getting her 1st career LPGA win--suffering through a major slump. Francella seems to be coming out of hers, so give Friberg time....
8. Sandra Gal. Her stats are way off from last year
9. Anja Monke. She hasn't been able to maintain the level of play that brought her a pair of wins late in the LET '08 season, despite some solid winter golf, but once she starts putting better, look for some top 20s at least from her--that GIR rate it pretty impressive!

On the Bottom, Looking Up
10. Jimin Jeong. One of the few players in her class to show serious improvement from her rookie season, she's leapfrogged a lot of people and moved up to #158 on the current LPGA priority list. Her made cut rate suggests she has the potential to move up a rank next time I do this ranking.
11. Eunjung Yi. At #152 on the priority list, she should have many opportunities to play her way out of her bad start to the season.
12. Carolina Llano. At #130 on the priority list, she has a great chance to make the top 80 on the money list this season, if she can just start playing better.
13. Taylor Leon. At #156 on the priority list, she'll have her chances this season to make the top 80, but like Yi and Llano, she'll have to take better advantage of them when they come.
14. Sarah Kemp. At #162 on the priority list, she'll need a little more help to get into enough events to have a shot at the top 80....
15. Anna Grzebien. At #119 on the priority list, she's in the best shape of anyone at this level in her class, but she'll need to make more birdies to take advantage of that status.
16. Leah Wigger. At #147 on the priority list, she can't drop much further down it, so she should get into enough events to play her way out of her slump.
17. Ashleigh Simon. On the comeback trail from back injuries that sidelined her for most of the season, we'll see what shape her game is in this week. At #141 on the priority list, we should be seeing a lot more of her in the coming months.
18. Anna Rawson. Yikes! She seemed to have built up great momentum from Q-School and a solid Australian swing, but she's missed the cut in all 4 LPGA events she's gotten into. At #134 on the priority list, she'll have plenty of opportunities to stage a comeback, though.

On the Outside, Looking In (Futures Tour or worse in '09)
19. Onnarin Sattayabanphot. At #19 on the Futures Tour money list, she's played well below my expectations thus far.
20. Hannah Jun. Ditto, except she's at #26 on the FT money list.
21. Liz Janangelo. Ditto, except she's at #24 on the FT money list.
22. Sarah Oh. Played well in Australia this winter, including a win against a pretty strong field, so I'm not sure why she hasn't started playing on the FT yet....
23. Nicole Hage. At #14 on the FT money list, she's far exceeding my expectations.
24. Hwanhee Lee. At #56 on the FT money list, she's exceeding my expectations.
25. Sofie Andersson. At #68 on the FT money list, she's playing below my expectations.
26. Violeta Retamoza. At #95 on the FT money list, she's playing well below my expectations.
27. Chris Brady. At #104 on the FT money list, she's also playing far below my expectations.
28. Emma Cabrera-Bello. 2 missed cuts on the LET's Australian swing get her off to a slow start in '09, but she'll have plenty of chances to improve there.
29. Amie Hartje. Not yet listed as a FT member in 2009, I believe she's eligible for membership.
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff. I can't find any evidence that she's playing professional golf anywhere.

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the April ranking.

2009 LPGA Money List (rank), stroke average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone is playing this season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, and how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are the most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future.

1. Ya Ni Tseng, $366.4K (#5), 70.31 (#2), 4.27 (#1), 70.2% (#16)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $263.2K (#10), 71.27 (#7), 3.38 (#6), 68.2% (#22)
3. Hee Young Park, $181.0K (#17), 72.76 (#30), 2.48 (#41), 58.1% (#93)
4. Momoko Ueda, $52.3K (#46), 72.85 (#34), 2.54 (#85), 64.8% (#39)
5. Shanshan Feng, $41.3K (#54), 73.53 (#57), 2.63 (#48), 61.1% (#65)
6. Sandra Gal, $31.1K (#63), 73.82 (#64), 2.82 (#54), 56.5% (#102)
7. Jimin Jeong, $30.5K (#65), 73.46 (#55), 2.92 (#74), 60.2% (#74)
8. Taylor Leon, $20.9K (#78), 74.22 (#81), 2.67 (#103), 55.6% (#106)
9. Eunjung Yi, $20.0K (#79), 74.45 (#93), 2.73 (#92), 43.1% (#140)
10. Anna Grzebien, $17.8K (#86), 73.92 (#70), 2.17 (#99), 62.2% (#55)
11. Anja Monke, $17.1K (#87), 73.36 (#51), 2.43 (#81), 75.6% (#2)
12. Amy Yang, $16.0K (#90), 73.24 (#48), 2.53 (#62), 60.2% (#74)
13. Louise Friberg, $13.4K (#92), 75.72 (#122), 2.56 (#57), 52.8% (#117)
14. Carolina Llano, $13.1K (#95), 74.40 (#89), 2.30 (#109), 62.2% (#55)
15. Leah Wigger, $10.4K (#106), 74.64 (#98), 1.91 (#117), 58.3% (#89)
16. Sarah Kemp, $7.3K (#118), 73.57 (n.r.), ?, ?
17. Anna Rawson, $0 (n.r.), 75.63 (#119), 1.63 (#135), 55.6% (#106)
18. Ashleigh Simon, $0 (n.r.), 76.50, ?, ?


Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events entered/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/cuts made (made cut rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the Super Sophs haven't been at this all too long, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who have not been exempt both years. What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now--although Thomas Atkins has posted an inflation-adjusted LPGA Career Top 50 as of the end of the 2008 season over at Hound Dog's place and just come out with a Top 50 ranking. In any case, I include these other ways of seeing how the Super Sophs finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. Many thanks to the LPGA for updating their 2009 Performance Chart after every event!

1. Ya Ni Tseng, $2.12M (#87), 34/1/1/9/15/25/33 (.971)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $1.36M (#128), 34/0/0/5/12/23/34 (1.000)
3. Hee Young Park, $655.7K (#230), 34/0/0/1/5/8/27 (.794)
4. Shanshan Feng, $514.1K (#257), 32/0/0/1/5/7/19 (.594)
5. Momoko Ueda, $465.8K (#263), 23/0/0/0/3/7/19 (.826)
6. Louise Friberg, $408.4K (#285), 31/0/1/1/3/4/18 (.581)
7. Sandra Gal, $212.3K (#371), 28/0/0/0/0/4/20 (.714)
8. Eunjung Yi, $115.2K (#437), 17/0/0/0/0/1/10 (.588)
9. Jimin Jeong, $112.4K (#441), 17/0/0/0/1/2/12 (.706)
10. Taylor Leon, $106.5K (#451), 20/0/0/0/2/4/9 (.450)
11. Carolina Llano, $101.0K (#456), 27/0/0/0/1/1/13 (.481)
12. Sarah Kemp, $80.7K (#485), 22/0/0/0/0/2/11 (.500)
13. Amy Yang, $76.8K (#490), 12/0/0/0/1/3/9 (.750)
14. Anna Rawson, $62.8K (#509), 17/0/0/0/1/2/5 (.294)
15. Anna Grzebien, $56.9K (#521), 19/0/0/0/0/1/8 (.421)
16. Anja Monke, $53.1K (#530), 9/0/0/0/0/0/7 (.778)
17. Liz Janangelo, $34.0K (#567), 22/0/0/0/0/0/9 (.409)
18. Hannah Jun, $32.0K (#572), 9/0/0/0/0/0/5 (.556)
19. Leah Wigger, $24.5K (#587), 10/0/0/0/0/0/5 (.500)
20. Ashleigh Simon, $24.5K (#589), 16/0/0/0/0/0/7 (.438)
21. Amie Cochran, $17.2K (#616), 5/0/0/0/0/1/1 (.200)
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, $8.6K (#664), 8/0/0/0/0/0/2 (.250)
23. Nicole Hage, $8.4K (#665), 7/0/0/0/0/0/2 (.286)
24. Chris Brady, $6.1K (#682), 4/0/0/0/0/0/2 (.500)
25. Violeta Retamoza, $2.5K (#715), 19/0/0/0/0/0/1 (.053)
26. Emma Cabrera-Bello, $0K (n.r.), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
27. Sarah Oh, $0K (n.r.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
28. Hwanhee Lee, $0K (n.r.), 5/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
29. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
30. Sofie Andersson, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)


Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 5/4/09) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 5/3/09) and rank, International and Non-Member LPGA Wins (as of the end of the 2008 season): This is a way of seeing how those Junior Mints who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Ya Ni Tseng, 8.77 (#2), 69.66 (#6); 0
2. Na Yeon Choi, 3.67 (#12), 69.92 (#8); 4
3. Momoko Ueda, 3.05 (#24), 70.79 (#22); 7
4. Hee Young Park, 2.19 (#45), 71.44 (#47); 4
5. Shanshan Feng, 1.95 (#50), 72.03 (#72); 0
6. Amy Yang, 1.21 (#75), 72.04 (#73); 3
7. Louise Friberg, 1.04 (#86), 73.07 (#123); 0
8. Sandra Gal, .80 (#107); 71.96 (#69); 0
9. Anja Monke, .61 (#127), 73.03 (#122); 2
10. Jimin Jeong, .51 (#148), 72.96 (#116); 0
11. Sarah Kemp, .46 (#160), 74.27 (#225); 0
12. Eunjung Yi, .46 (#163), 72.57 (#94); 0
13. Anna Rawson, .38 (#191), 73.40 (#141); 0
14. Taylor Leon, .35 (#201), 74.39 (#236); 0
15. Anna Grzebien, .20 (#259), 73.51 (#150); 0
16. Ashleigh Simon, .20 (#260), 74.41 (#240); 1
17. Carolina Llano, .20 (#266), 74.08 (#206); 0
18. Sarah Oh, .20 (#268), 74.27 (n.r.); 0
19. Leah Wigger, .11 (#341), 74.15 (#210); 0
20. Emma Cabrera-Bello, .05 (#430), 75.22 (#303); 0
21. Liz Janangelo, .05 (#433), 74.83 (#278); 0
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, .05 (#446), 74.31 (#230); 0
23. Nicole Hage, .04 (#465), 75.71 (#332); 0
24. Amie Cochran, .03 (#520), 78.25 (n.r.); 0
25. Hannah Jun, .02 (#579), 74.21 (#218); 0
26. Violeta Retamoza, .01 (#639), 78.16 (#491); 0
27. Sofie Andersson, .01 (#719), 77.49 (#453); 0
28. Hwanhee Lee, n.r., 75.95 (#351); 0
29. Chris Brady, n.r., 77.48 (#451); 0
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, n.r., n.r.; 0


Here's my schedule for the rest of the season:

May: Young Guns (post-Corning)
June: Class of 2006 (post-Wegmans)
July: Class of 2007 (pre-WBO)
August: Class of 2008 (post-Safeway)
September: Young Guns (post-Longs Drugs)
October: Class of 2006 (post-Korea)
November: Class of 2007 (post-Stanford)
December: Class of 2008 (post-Q School)
January '10: Young Guns; Class of 2009 (final 2009 ranking)

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