Somehow the brilliance of Ji-Yai Shin, Na Yeon Choi, Ya Ni Tseng, Cristie Kerr, Ai Miyazato, Suzann Pettersen, and Song-Hee Kim this season is still overshadowed by the host of this week's LPGA event, Lorena Ochoa, and its defending champion, Michelle Wie. Lorena's coming off an exhibition win in China over a mixed field that included Greg Norman, Colin Montgomerie, Annika Sorenstam, Se Ri Pak, Laura Davies, Ya Ni Tseng, and Danny Lee, which netted her $1.28M for 2 rounds of golf--more than everyone on the LPGA money list except the top 6 players on tour. Michelle isn't even in my top 3 of 2-time winners on tour, ranked by their likelihood of winning. So which of them do you think has a better chance of winning this week?
Do you think the distraction of hosting the tournament will outweigh the fact that it's being played in Lorena's back yard? Do you think Michelle will be so happy to get out of the classroom that the altitude and elevation changes of Guadalajara Country Club won't bother her? Will these part-timers be able to bring their A-games against the LPGA's finest? And will even that be enough?
11 comments:
Lorena beat several men, including Monty (thanks to a ridiculous penalty for moving a temporary obstruction).
She still has the track record to put her well ahead of a Wie-gasm in Mexico.
Wie hasn't had any problem skipping out on classes. She's already taken at least 3 weeks off this fall - which makes me doubt her "full time student" status - but what the heck.
And neither will win - but Ochoa will finish higher.
Lorena has said she didn't retire from golf, just from the LPGA, and that she plays every day. I think we're making a mistake if we think she's just gone away; she may even return to the LPGA at some point in the future if she gets bored. (Once a competitor, always a competitor...)
But Michelle will probably do better, though not for the reason you might think. I think the taller players will have less trouble walking the course. Add that to Michelle's length, and I think she has an advantage over Lorena...
That said, I'm going for a short player. I think Kerr, Creamer, Pressel, or Tseng is likely to get the win this week. They've all played well here in both 2008 and 2009.
The taller players will have less trouble walking the course ? Hmm - notice there aren't any giraffes in the Himlayas ? :-D
Michelle Wie has the highest Rolex Rank of any player with 3 or fewer wins including anyone named Kim. She has a win and a second in her last 4 events and is defending champion this week. In addition to her win here last year she has a 10T and a 3 in Mexico(Ochoa land). A course set up that is good for Ochoa is also good for Wie.
"Highest ranking of anyone with 3 or fewer wins including anyone named Kim". (In case any of Christa's fans had any reason to talk smack.)
"Ochoa land" (Would that be Rodriguez land for followers of the PGA? No, he's from Puerto Rico. What about Trevino land? No, the Merry Mex is from Dallas, TX.) What do you call the land north of the Rio Bravo del Norte?
If you want to say that she's played well recently and that she has a good history south of the Rio Grande then say it. But check your "best 3 wins and under" smack talk at the door. The coat check girl will put it on the shelf next to the "best National League hitter with 10 or fewer homers."
My point with Ochoa land is that courses would bew set up in a way favorable to a big hitter like Ochoa. The Kim comment referred to IK Kim who was picked as the top pick to get her 3rd win in 2010 while Wie was picked 4th, and Song Hee Kim who predumeably should have been given more of a spotlight than defending champion Wie even though she is ranked lower and has never won on the LPGA.
Time will tell who'll get win #3 1st, Jim. I'm just calling it like I see it. I don't go by rankings in weighing the likelihood of how soon the next win will come, but for what it's worth, Inky is ranked slightly ahead of Wiesy in the Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index:
http://www.golfweekrankings.com/ellington/default.asp?t=lpga
Given how close they are in both ranking systems, it's basically a wash. I'm going by who's been playing better in the 2nd half of the season, and who's more tournament-golf-ready.
Here's my preview:
http://mlyhlss.blogspot.com/2010/11/lorena-ochoa-invitational-preview.html
I see Wie with a good chnace to win this week, and the best chance of anyone to get her 3rd win this year. But time will probably tell us nobody gets the 3rd win this year. In the post it sounded like you were only looking at the issue of wins in 2010, but your comment sounds like you are looking for the first to graduate even if it is not this year.
I believe that Wie has been aiming for this week. So I give her a good shot.
I'll redo all my rankings (including the forward-looking ones based on number of tour victories) at the start of next season. I expect Wie to move up a bit (if only into the "Most Likely to Win" category) because she's likely to be playing more regularly at the start of that season than she had been at the end of this one.
Just checked back in on the comments... Court, I meant that players with longer legs have less trouble handling elevation changes because they don't have to move them through such a wide range of motion. Check the finishes at Lorena's tournament the last two years -- the top 2 players (top 3 in 2008) have been relatively tall.
And you don't find much of anything in the Himalayas -- it's too cold! ;-)
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