Mostly Harmless: January 2012

Monday, January 30, 2012

10 Questions for 2012

Now that all my ten questions for 2011 have been answered, it is time that I ask the ten questions that I am hoping will be answered during the 2012 season.

1- We all know that Yani Tseng is the real thing, no question about that. The question here is can she be as dominant in 2012 as she was in 2011, or will someone step up and challenge her for her crown?

2- Lexi Thompson will be 17 years old on February 10th. We all expect her to be an elite golfer soon. The question here is, is it expecting too much for us to think that she could be a top ten golfer this year?

3- No American player has won the player of the year award in 18 years. The last player to do so was Beth Daniel in 1994. Will someone rise to the occasion in 2012?

4- Can Stacy Lewis and Sandra Gal, the golfers who in my opinion improved the most in 2011, continue thier rise in 2012?

5- Who will win the 2012 Rookie of the Year Award? Will it be one of the favorites (Lexi Thompson & So Yeon Ryu), or will someone else sneak up ( Junthima Gulyanamitta, Kathleen Ekey, Sydney Michaels), and pull off an upset?

6- Is Ryann O'Toole the real thing, or just a "flash in the pan"?

7- Who is the real Song-Hee Kim? Is it the golfer that had 15 top ten finishes in 2010, or the golfer who had only two in 2011?

8- Can Michelle Wie, who graduates from Stanford University early this year, now focus only on golf and move to elite status?

9- Can Amy Yang and Brittany Lang, two golfers with so much talent, finally break through and get their first LPGA victory?

10- Can Michael Whan, who has done a great job so far, continue adding tournaments and get the number up to 30 by 2013?

I have other questions, but these are the ones I would like answered most.

Feel free to give me your answers or add your own questions.

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Way to Go, Lydia Ko!

Lots going on here at the Constructivist household: not long after the Full Metal Archivist and I got back to work (the FMA for the 1st time in quite a while), she had to go to the ER to be treated for vertigo last Saturday! She's already walking unaided just 2 mornings after that visit, but nowhere near where she was 3 mornings ago. Before we head out to our doctor's office, though, I just had to take a minute to offer my congratulations to 14-year-old Lydia Ko, who won decisively on the ALPG yesterday. Not only did she get to -14 in the 54-hole tournament to beat Becky Morgan by 4 shots, Lindsey Wright and Kristie Smith by 5, and Katherine Hull by 6, she took down the likes of Gwladys Nocera by 7, Marianne Skarpnord by 12, Melissa Reid by 13, Laura Davies and Jessica Korda by 14, Ashleigh Simon by 16, and Lorie Kane by 17!

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

My Top 30 Predictions for 2012

We are two weeks away from the first LPGA tournament of the year.
Here are my top 30 picks for the 2012 Player of the Year.

1- Yani Tseng
2- Suzanne Petterson
3- Paula Creamer
4- Stacy Lewis
5- Na Yeon Choi
6- Cristie Kerr
7- Brittany Lincicome
8- I.K. Kim
9- Ai Miyazato
10- Jiyai Shin
11- Angela Stanford
12- Morgan Pressel
13- Lexi Thompson
14- So Yeon Ryu
15- Amy Yang
16- Michelle Wie
17- Mika Miyazato
18- Brittany Lang
19- Maria Hjorth
20- Catriona Matthew
21- Anna Nordqvist
22- Karrie Webb
23- Sun Young Yoo
24- Sandra Gal
25- Hee Kyeong Seo
26- Azahara Munoz
27- Caroline Hedwall
28- Junthima Gulyanamitta
29- Inbee Park
30- Song-Hee Kim

This was the toughest time I ever had narrowing this down to just 30 players.
I have included 3 rookies (Thompson, Ryu, and Gulyanamitta), which resulted in me leaving off some pretty good players.
Among the players I left off that I think I could regret, include: Se Ri Pak, Katie Futcher, Hee Young Park, Momoko Ueda, Sophie Gustufson, Christel Boeljon, Ryann O'Toole, and Shanshan Feng.

Feel free to post your own top 30, or comment on any player you think should be on my list.

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Sunday, January 22, 2012

Come One, Come All: Now Accepting Entries for the 2012 LPGA Prognostication Derby

A growing group of us have been playing a little game over here at Mostly Harmless for each of the last several years, a contest to see who's best at predicting the top 30 golfers on the LPGA at the end of each season, christened by Hound Dog the LPGA Prognostication Derby. Check out the links in the previous sentence for rules and results from 2008, 2009, and 2010, which Mulligan Stu, Hound Dog, and rjay won, respectively. I was hoping to have the 2011 results ready to announce today, but what with the start of my spring 2012 semester coming up tomorrow, my hoping against hope that Hound Dog will release his final 2011 LPGA rankings soon, and my kids discovering Power Pack (a comic I collected for about 30 issues in the mid-'80s) this weekend, I'm not going to be ready tonight.

So while you wait (hold that bated breath thing--this may take awhile!), I'm thinking that it's about time I put out a 1st call for entries for 2012. All you have to do is compile a list of the 30 LPGA members you think have the best chance of garnering Player of the Year honors this season, ranked from most likely at #1 to least likely at #30 (least likely among your very elite group of picks, that is). Then submit your list by posting it on your own blog, or as a comment to this post, or as a fan post at Hound Dog LPGA, or simply by sending it in an email to me (see my blogger profile for my coordinates).

Good luck to all of last year's and this year's participants!

Friday, January 20, 2012

Thursday, January 19, 2012

So Who Did Well at LET Q-School?

A few days ago, I listed the players North American fans of women's golf might be familiar with who were trying their luck across the pond in the LET's Final Qualifying Tournament. Let's run down how they did.

The following players got full status on the LET:

Esther Choe (Group A medallist): T26 at +6
Carlota Ciganda (#257 on LPGA Priority Status List): 3rd at -4
Valentine Derrey (#158 on LPGA Priority Status List): T26 at +6
Kendall Dye: T9 at +2
Jodi Ewart (#101 on LPGA Priority Status List): medallist at -11
Meaghan Francella (#98 on LPGA Priority Status List): T19 at +4
Jennie Lee (#95 on LPGA Priority Status List): T9 at +2
Amelia Lewis (#139 on LPGA Priority Status List): T16 at +3
Stephanie Na: T22 at +5
Dawn Shockley: T26 at +6
Jessica Yadloczky: T7 at +1
Heather Bowie Young (#70 on LPGA Priority Status List): T16 at +3

The following player got partial status on the LET:

Alison Whitaker: T48 at +12

The following players got very low status on the LET (I believe):

Dori Carter (#97 on LPGA Priority Status List): MC
Benedikte Grotvedt: MC
Stefanie Kenoyer: MC
Caroline Larsson: MC
Camila Lennarth: MC
Whitney Neuhauser: MC
Garrett Phillips: MC
Karin Sjodin (#114 on LPGA Priority Status List): MC

The only player I'm unsure about was in a big playoff for the 29th and 30th spots:

Miriam Nagl: T29 at +7

Will update when I find out what happened!

[Update 1 (10:54 am): Just noticed that Americans Ashley Knoll (T35 at +8), Cara Freeman (T43 at +11), and Mary Mattson (T48 at +12) also got partial status for 2012 on the LET. Congratulations to them and their families!]

[Update 2 (10:57 am): Turns out I should have checked twitter 1st: Nagl will have to settle for partial status in 2012.]

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Ranking the LPGA's Rookie Class of 2010

Azahara Munoz was Rookie of the Year in the Class of 2010, the 2nd of 3 classes in what I'm calling the "New Blood" generation on the LPGA. Could anybody pass her by the end of the 2011 season? Or begin approaching the feats of the best in the Class of 2009? Or stay ahead of last year's rookies? So far, this class has a lot of survivors, which is another way of saying that there are a lot in it who have been hanging onto their cards by the skin of their teeth. How many of them will retain or regain their membership in 2013? Read on!

Simply the Best

1. Azahara Munoz: She's really the only player in her class whose recent and career performance stats and results stack up fairly well with the best in previous rookie classes. The big questions for her in 2012 are, can she start to contend more often? how long will it take before she's ready to win on the LPGA? The key to both questions is her putting.

The Contenders

2. Beatriz Recari: She's made a fairly successful transition to the LPGA from the LET, in that she's the 1st and only player in her rookie class to get a win, she's making a decent number of cuts, and she's outperformed everyone besides Munoz in her class thus far. But compared to those in other rookie classes, she has a long way to go, needing work in almost every aspect of her game. Can she step it up in 2012?
3. Gwladys Nocera: She sacrificed distance for accuracy in 2011, but her irons and putter let her down big-time. In fact, a T14 at the Navistar--her last event and only top 20 of the year--was the only thing that kept her in the top 100 on the LPGA money list, plus she couldn't even crack the top 40 of the LET money list in 13 starts over there. At #102 on the LPGA Priority Status List, she'll be able to play all she wants over here this coming season, but the big question is whether she'll decide to continue to challenge herself against the best female golfers on the planet or will be tempted to return to the LET, where she would have a better chance to fight her way back among that tour's elite. Her current struggles make me wonder how her LPGA career would have gone had she been the one who had won the CVS instead of Recari in their rookie season....
4. Amanda Blumenherst: She's tied with Recari for the 2nd-most top 20s in her class and has the 2nd-best made cut rate, as well, so she's shown some pretty decent consistency thus far in her career. But compared to the best rookies in other classes, she still has miles to go.

Quantum Leap Candidates

5. Mina Harigae: She actually had the highest birdie rate in her class in 2011 (3.14 birdies per round, just ahead of Cindy LaCrosse and Pernilla Lindberg) and the second-lowest scoring average (behind only Munoz), so if she can improve her ball-striking, especially when it comes to hitting greens, she can keep steadily improving in 2012.
6. Dewi Claire Schreefel: In only 15 career starts on the LPGA, she's set a solid pace. If she could finish #38 on the LET money list in only 10 starts there in 2011, I'm sure she can do better than she has so far on the LPGA in 2012. Let's see if she can keep improving her game and pick up that pace this coming season.
7. Gerina Mendoza Piller: She only has 14 career LPGA starts, and like Schreefel she needs to take advantage of her full schedule in 2012. If she can capitalize on her length and ability to hit greens, she can really take off this coming season; if not, she'll struggle to keep her card.
8. Cindy LaCrosse: She showed she can play with the big girls in 2011, so if she can draw on the positives from her top 20s, like when she played her way into the final group with Ya Ni Tseng on Sunday at the Wegmans LPGA Championship, she'll have a leg up in 2012 on those with less LPGA experience.
9. Mariajo Uribe: After dropping out of the top 100 on the money list in 2011, she really needs a big bounceback in 2012. Fortunately for her, at #134 on the priority status list, she'll get into every regular event she wants to play in and should have every opportunity to play her way into the limited-field events.
10. Alison Walshe: She played just well enough to make the top 80 on the money list in 2011 and has shown flashes of brilliance in her 20 career LPGA starts. But she's going to have to make more cuts to stay in this category next ranking. The interesting thing is that at #52 on the LET money list in only 9 starts there in 2011, she'll have plenty of chances to supplement her LPGA schedule with some trips across the pond. How extensive a dual LPGA-LET membership she wants to explore in 2012 is a big question facing her this coming season.

On the Bottom, Looking Up

11. Ilhee Lee: She hit her share of greens in 2011, but just couldn't get the ball to fall in the hole, so she's back in the #110 spot on the priority status list. Let's see if she can bounce back in 2012.
12. Maria Hernandez: She had to cut her 2011 season short due to injury, so she comes back in 2012 at #75a on priority status list, thanks to a medical exemption. If she's recovered, she's in a great position to join her fellow Spaniards at the top of this class. Plus, if she also got a medical exemption from the LET, she'll have a chance to take advantage of a dual LPGA-LET membership this coming season.
13. Pernilla Lindberg: To me, she's the biggest disappointment in her class, bar none, despite finishing #18 on the 2011 LET money list in only 13 starts. I still think she has the talent and potential to be among the best in her class, and from #108 on the priority status list, she'll have plenty of chances to prove it. The key for her is hitting more greens!
14. Yoo Kyeong Kim: At #140 on the priority status list, she's going to get into all the full-field events she wants to, but she's really got to upgrade every aspect of her game if she wants to stay on the LPGA long-term (or even short-term!).
15. Paola Moreno: At #154 on the priority status list, she's going to have to hope a large number of players skip a large number of events. I think if she's smart she'll make the Symetra Tour her home in 2012 and supplement her income from it with the odd LPGA start. If she can squeak into the top 100 of the LPGA money list or better, great. If not, she definitely has the potential to be a top 5er on the Symetra Tour.
16. Christine Song: At #93 on the priority status list, let's see how she handles her 1st full LPGA season. She hasn't done much of anything in her 1st 12 starts on tour, but knowing where you're going to be playing from week to week can make a huge difference.
17. Tanya Dergal: She played her way via Q-School into the #123 spot on the priority status list, so should get into the full complement of full-field events. Let's see how her 9th career LPGA start and up go this coming season.
18. Nannette Hill: She got back to #153a on the priority status list thanks to a medical exemption. Like Moreno, I think she'd be better off treating the Symetra Tour as her home tour in 2012.

On the Outside, Looking In

19. Adrienne White: She's made 6 cuts in her 10 career LPGA starts, so has shown she can compete on the big tour. Looks like she'll need to make it back via the Symetra Tour in 2012.
20. Lisa Meldrum: She's gotten into many more LPGA events than her fellow Canadian, but doesn't have nearly as good a made-cut rate as White. Hopefully she'll regroup on the Symetra Tour this coming season.
21. Marianne Skarpnord: She fell to #78 on the LET money list in 2011 in only 13 starts. I assume she'll be back there full-time in 2012.
22. Misun Cho: This 2-time winner on the Futures Tour took a step back in 2011, finishing 39th on their money list and failing to return to the LPGA via Q-School. Let's see if she can turn it around in 2012 on the Symetra Tour.
23. Jean Reynolds: Another 2-time winner on the Futures Tour, she'll be looking to start her comeback on the Symetra Tour in 2012.
24. Katie Kempter: She was #51 on the Futures Tour money list and couldn't get back to the LPGA via Q-School in 2011, so it's another year in the minor leagues for her in 2012.
25. Whitney Wade: Although she has a Futures Tour win, she could finish only in 66th place on their 2011 money list and couldn't advance to the LPGA via Q-School. Let's see if she can improve in 2012.
26. Mallory Blackwelder: She was #27 on the 2011 Futures Tour money list, so is in good position to improve on it in 2012.
27. Cathryn Bristow: She got her 1st Futures Tour win in 2011 and finished 19th on their money list, so she is also in good shape to contend for the top 5 on the Symetra Tour in 2012.

Missing in Action

28. Jane Chin: Didn't play on the LPGA or Futures Tour in 2011 and hasn't updated her twitter account since last February. Anybody know what she's up to?

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the January 2012 ranking.

2011 LPGA Money List (rank), scoring average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone was playing last season--how much money they made, how they scored, how many birdies they averaged per round, and how many greens they hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are the most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future (although with so many events out of the country, it would be nice for the LPGA to collect performance stats there, too!).

NAME/$$/SCORING AVE./BIRDIES PER ROUND/GREENS IN REGULATION
1. Azahara Munoz, $520.3K (#24), 72.11 (#30), 2.81 (#25), 69.3% (#20)
2. Beatriz Recari $223.1K (#43), 72.58 (#44), 2.89 (#29), 63.8% (#93)
3. Mina Harigae, $178.7K (#49), 72.54 (#41), 3.14 (#48), 64.6% (#75)
4. Amanda Blumenherst, $164.9K (#52), 73.12 (#67), 2.91 (#39), 66.9% (#41)
5. Dewi Claire Schreefel, $136.1K (#62), 72.83 (#53), 2.77 (#64), 60.4% (#121)
6. Cindy LaCrosse, $114.8K (#65), 72.85 (#55), 3.13 (#60), 65.3% (#66)
7. Gerina Mendoza Piller, $103.3K (#68), 72.95 (#60), 3.02 (#67), 68.5% (#25)
8. Alison Walshe, $90.1K (#73), 73.89 (#103), 2.75 (#83), 61.6% (#108)
9. Gwladys Nocera, $57.6K (#86), 74.37 (#121), 2.42 (#81), 65.6% (#63)
10. Pernilla Lindberg, $53.4K (#90), 73.33 (#79), 3.10 (#89), 62.6% (#102)
11. Ilhee Lee, $52.9K (#91), 73.67 (#91), 2.50 (#105), 67.7% (#35)
12. Mariajo Uribe, $34.3K (#103), 73.87 (#101), 2.64 (#82), 62.9% (#99)
13. Yoo Kyeong Kim, $28.2K (#110), 73.46 (#83), 2.58 (#118), 63.0% (#97)
14. Christine Song, $16.0K (#126), 74.71 (#131), 2.25 (#125), 57.6% (#133)
15. Maria Hernandez, $15.4K (#127), 73.50 (n.r.), 2.92 (n.r.), 60.6% (n.r.)
16. Lisa Meldrum, $12.9K (#130), 74.38 (#122), 2.65 (#110), 61.5% (#110)
17. Jean Reynolds, $12.4K (#131), 75.26 (#136), 2.47 (#136), 55.0% (#138)
18. Paola Moreno, $11.6K (#136), 74.78 (#133), 2.13 (#131), 64.3% (#84)
19. Adrienne White, $6.9K (#144), 73.36 (n.r.), 2.91 (n.r.), 72.2% (n.r.)
20. Nannette Hill, $2.2K (#151), 76.00 (n.r.), 2.43 (n.r.), 51.6% (n.r.)
21. Mallory Blackwelder, $0K (n.r.), 77.50 (n.r.), 1.50 (n.r.), 50.0% (n.r.)
22. Whitney Wade, $0K (n.r.), 79.00 (n.r.), .50 (n.r.), 41.7% (n.r.)

Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events started/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/withdrawals/disqualifications/missed cuts/finished events (rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the '10ers all started at the same time, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to players who have not been exempt every season (although that in itself is an indication of how someone's career has been going!). What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now--although Thomas Atkins posted an inflation-adjusted LPGA Career Top 50 as of the end of the 2008 season and a Best of All Time ranking over at Hound Dog LPGA). In any case, I include the other ways of seeing how the '10ers finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. Many thanks to the LPGA for updating their 2011 Performance Chart after every event (although it would be nice for them to include the CME Titleholders in it)!

NAME/$$/STARTS/MAJORS/WINS/TOP3/TOP10/TOP20/WD/DQ/MC/FIN (RATE)
1. Azahara Munoz, $.92M (#205), 44/0/0/2/6/17/0/0/6/38 (.864)
2. Beatriz Recari, $.49M (#288), 41/0/1/1/5/9/0/0/14/27 (.659)
3. Gwladys Nocera, $.48M (#290), 36/0/0/1/2/4/0/0/15/21 (.583)
4. Amanda Blumenherst, $.42M (#302), 43/0/0/0/3/9/0/0/12/31 (.721)
5. Mina Harigae, $.27M (#364), 31/0/0/0/2/4/0/0/9/22 (.710)
6. Mariajo Uribe, $.17M (#429), 29/0/0/0/1/2/0/0/13/16 (.552)
7. Dewi Claire Schreefel, $.14M (#466), 15/0/0/0/0/2/0/0/5/10 (.667)
8. Cindy LaCrosse, $.14M (#469), 22/0/0/0/0/2/0/0/8/14 (.636)
9. Alison Walshe, $.13M (#476), 20/0/0/0/1/4/0/0/11/9 (.450)
10. Ilhee Lee, $.12M (#484), 24/0/0/0/1/2/0/0/13/11 (.458)
11. Maria Hernandez, $.11M (#502), 20/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/12/8 (.400)
12. Gerina Mendoza Piller, $.10M (#510), 14/0/0/0/1/3/0/0/5/9 (.643)
13. Pernilla Lindberg, $.09M (#515), 26/0/0/0/0/0/0/1/13/12 (.462)
14. Lisa Meldrum, $.05M (#590), 24/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/13/11 (.458)
15. Yoo Kyeong Kim, $.05M (#591), 22/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/16/6 (.273)
16. Paola Moreno, $.04M (#632), 18/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/11/7 (.389)
17. Jean Reynolds, $.03M (#651), 23/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/18/5 (.217)
18. Misun Cho, $.02M (#694), 14/0/0/0/0/0/1/0/11/2 (.143)
19. Marianne Skarpnord, $.02M (#696), 16/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/12/4 (.250)
20. Adrienne White, $.02M (#707), 10/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/6 (.600)
21. Christine Song, $.02M (#743), 12/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/9/3 (.250)
22. Katie Kempter, $7.3K (#830), 13/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/11/2 (.154)
23. Tanya Dergal, $5.4K (#863), 8/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/2 (.250)
24. Nannette Hill, $2.2K (#929), 4/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/3/1 (.250)
25. Whitney Wade, $0K (n.r.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/3/0 (.000)
26. Mallory Blackwelder, $0K (n.r.), 4/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/0 (.000)
27. Cathryn Bristow, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
28. Jane Chin, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)

Other Career Measures: Rolex Rankings (as of 1/16/12) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 1/15/12) and rank; International Wins (as of the end of the 2011 season): This is a way of seeing how those '09ers who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Azahara Munoz, 3.22 (#40), 70.96 (#27); 1
2. Beatriz Recari, 1.97 (#72), 72.19 (#74); 1
3. Mina Harigae, 1.34 (#115), 72.49 (#89); 0
4. Amanda Blumenherst, 1.24 (#128), 72.48 (#88); 0
5. Pernilla Lindberg, 1.14 (#134), 73.11 (#120); 0
6. Alison Walshe, 1.10 (#139), 73.84 (#174); 0
7. Gwladys Nocera, 1.09 (#143), 74.18 (#204); 10
8. Cindy LaCrosse, .89 (#169), 72.67 (#95); 0
9. Dewi Claire Schreefel, .81 (#178), 73.11 (#119); 0
10. Ilhee Lee, .79 (#181), 73.87 (#176); 0
11. Maria Hernandez, .64 (#213), 73.75 (n.r. [too few starts]); 1
12. Gerina Mendoza Piller, .63 (#218), 73.41 (#146); 0
13. Mariajo Uribe, .61 (#223), 73.54 (#152); 0
14. Marianne Skarpnord, .51 (#248), 73.96 (#184); 2
15. Yoo Kyeong Kim, .24 (#345), 74.21 (n.r. [too few starts]); 0
16. Christine Song, .19 (#380), 75.12 (#272); 0
17. Paola Moreno, .15 (#408), 75.81 (#330); 0
18. Lisa Meldrum, .11 (#452), 74.48 (#230); 0
19. Jean Reynolds, .10 (#460), 76.48 (#374); 0
20. Misun Cho, .07 (#504), 74.24 (#210); 0
21. Katie Kempter, 06 (#528), 75.73 (#322); 0
22. Mallory Blackwelder, .06 (#534), 74.79 (#253); 0
23. Cathryn Bristow, .03 (#617), 76.40 (#371); 0
24. Nannette Hill, .03 (#618), 73.92 (n.r. [too few starts]); 0
25. Adrienne White, .03 (#619), 74.88 (#260); 0
26. Whitney Wade, .01 (#727), 75.76 (#325); 0
27. Tanya Dergal, n.r., 77.37 (#414); 0

Monday, January 16, 2012

The Best in the Tseng Dynasty: January 2012 Edition

Since last April's ranking of the Best of the Young Guns generation on the LPGA, a lot has changed, most notably Ya Ni Tseng's achieving escape velocity relative to her peers in the rookie classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008, so much so that it's no exaggeration to speak of this as her generation, the Tseng Dynasty, a la Annika, Se Ri, and Lorena's. Let's take a look at who has the best shot of overthrowing--or at least keeping pace with--Tseng in 2012!

In a Class of Her Own

1. Ya Ni Tseng: Since I last did this ranking, Tseng has added 2 majors, 6 wins, 8 top 3s, 10 top 10s, and 14 top 20s to her already-best-in-class career totals. That's more majors than anyone else in her generation, more wins than anyone except Ai Miyazato, and more top 3s than most in her generation will garner in their entire careers--all in only 17 starts!

Simply the Best

2. Na Yeon Choi: She did her best to keep up with Tseng, with a win, 6 top 3s, 11 top 10s, and 13 top 20s in her 17 starts since the last ranking. Even though she has the most top 10s in her generation, she needs to contend and win more often to even start thinking about catching her Class of '08 rival!
3. Ai Miyazato: She lost a good deal of ground on Tseng and Choi since last April, despite getting career win #7 and adding another top 3, 6 top 10s, and 10 top 20s in her 15 starts.
4. In-Kyung Kim: She matched Miyazato in top 3s and top 10s and actually had 1 more top 20 than her in her 17 starts since the last ranking, but she needs to go off in her next 12 starts, with 4 wins and $1M in winnings, to get to where Miyazato is now.
5. Morgan Pressel: She has the most top 20s in her generation, but her lead on Choi has shrunk to 1 in this category, and Choi has 46 fewer starts as an LPGA member than she does. She's consolidated her position ahead of the players in the next rank since the last ranking, but she's falling behind the best in her generation.

The Contenders

6. Seon Hwa Lee: She's in a real career nosedive, tailspin, free fall--whatever you want to call it. She's young enough to bounce back, but at this point the question is not when but if.
7. Song-Hee Kim: Compared to others in this category, her slump in 2011 was relatively mild. She still made a bunch of cuts and added a lot of top 20s to her career totals, but the clearest indication she's no longer among the game's elite is in how few top 10s and better finishes she could garner since last April.
8. Amy Yang: She's now the best on the LPGA without a win, in my books, but more on that later. It's not just that she's set a good pace early in her career, it's that she's poised to really take off in 2012, whereas most in this category have been struggling of late or just starting to get out from under pretty big slumps.
9. Eun-Hee Ji: Speaking of which, Ji is still not out from under her U.S. Women's Open jinx. I'd say she's stabilized her fall, but she hasn't completely pulled out of it, as I expected her to last season. Maybe this one?
10. Inbee Park: I want to rank her higher than this based on her strong performances on the JLPGA over the last 2 seasons, but the fact is that she just hasn't been as good on the LPGA as she's been in Japan.
11. Jee Young Lee: Something is definitely wrong with her, as she's made only 2 cuts since last April.
12. Hee Young Park: The Rocket finally got her 1st LPGA win, and what a win it was! Let's see if she uses it to really blast off in 2012.
13. Brittany Lang: She played great since the last ranking and her 2nd major career slump is now a distant memory I'd love to see her break through for her 1st LPGA win in 2012!

Quantum Leap Candidates

14. Momoko Ueda: Her strategy of dividing her time almost equally between the LPGA and JLPGA has been netting her diminishing returns the last 2 seasons--but she did win the Mizuno in 2011, which salvaged her year on both tours. If she can get her putter going in 2012, watch out for her!
15. Sun Young Yoo: She's plateaued and will need to get it going to jump another level in 2012.
16. Kristy McPherson: Her recovery from surgery was on the slow side in 2011, but she's too tough a competitor to let missing out on the Solheim Cup get her down for too long. I expect to see her bounce back in 2012.
17. Sandra Gal. I'm still giving the nod to her over Shanshan Feng, even though Feng outplayed her a bit since the last ranking--her win over Ji-Yai Shin at the Kia and better made-cut rate continue to carry the day for her.
18. Shanshan Feng: She's started playing very good golf again and has put her 2nd career slump behind her, but she's another dual LPGA-JLPGA member who's been playing even better in Japan than she has anywhere else in the world.

On the Bottom, Looking Up
If you're struggling to keep your card, you're not going to be moving up this ranking any time soon. The players in this category may be millionaires, but getting to that 2nd million (or, in Granada's case, 3rd) will be difficult for them as the best players from the New Blood and Generation Prodigy rookie classes come more and more into their own.

19. Julieta Granada.
20. Ji Young Oh.
21. Jane Park.
22. Kyeong Bae.
23. Meaghan Francella.
24. Katie Futcher.

On the Outside, Looking In

25. Teresa Lu: A full-time JLPGAer now.

Over and Out

26. Angela Park.

***

For your reference, here's how the millionaires in the Tseng Dynasty stack up, stats-wise, at the end of the 2011 season.

STARTS/MAJORS/WINS/TOP 3/TOP 10/TOP 20/WD/DQ/MC/FINISHES (RATE)
[Note: *=non-member win (not counted toward other stats).]

1. Ya Ni Tseng (2008), $7.54M (#15), 95/5/12/29/46/68/0/0/4/91 (.958)
2. Ai Miyazato (2006), $5.73M (#31), 131/0/7/16/45/67/1/0/18/112 (.855)
3. Na Yeon Choi (2008), $5.67M (#32), 97/0/5/22/48/70/0/0/2/95 (.979)
4. In-Kyung Kim (2007), $4.56M (#40), 119/0/3/15/44/63/0/0/16/103 (.866)
5. Morgan Pressel (2006), $4.39M (#44), 143/1/2/12/42/71/0/0/15/128 (.895)
6. Seon Hwa Lee (2006), $4.01M (#49), 150/0/4/11/30/61/2/0/19/129 (.860)
7. Song-Hee Kim (2007), $3.65M (#54), 111/0/0/11/36/54/0/0/18/94 (.849)
8. Jee Young Lee (2006), $3.31M (#62), 139/0/1*/9/35/65/5/0/20/114 (.820)
9. Brittany Lang (2006), $3.12M (#67), 151/0/0/7/34/59/0/0/30/121 (.801)
10. Inbee Park (2007), $2.99M (#72), 111/1/1/5/25/37/1/1/20/89 (.802)
11. Sun Young Yoo (2006), $2.80M (#76), 147/0/1/4/22/48/1/0/29/117 (.796)
12. Eun-Hee Ji (2007), $2.45M (#87), 96/1/2/5/15/26/0/3/14/79 (.823)
13. Julieta Granada (2006), $2.40M (#90), 144/0/1/5/12/24/0/1/55/78 (.542)
14. Hee Young Park (2008), $2.32M (#96), 96/0/1/4/19/32/0/0/18/78 (.813)
15. Angela Park (2007), $2.12M (#103), 84/0/0/8/18/25/5/0/18/61 (.726)
16. Amy Yang (2008), $2.04M (#108), 74/0/0/4/16/30/0/0/8/66 (.892)
17. Kristy McPherson (2007), $1.88M (#117), 111/0/0/4/16/30/0/0/25/86 (.775)
18. Ji Young Oh (2007), $1.49M (#131), 106/0/2/2/8/18/1/0/39/66 (.623)
19. Momoko Ueda (2008), $1.40M (#141), 70/0/2*/2/8/21/0/0/12/58 (.829)
20. Kyeong Bae, $1.40M (#142), 134/0/0/2/10/22/5/0/39/90 (.672)
21. Shanshan Feng (2008), $1.24M (#160), 82/0/0/2/12/19/1/0/24/57 (.695)
22. Sandra Gal (2008), $1.21M (#163), 86/0/1/2/7/22/2/0/19/65 (.756)
23. Meaghan Francella (2006), $1.16M (#169), 111/0/1/1/7/15/0/0/38/73 (.658)
24. Teresa Lu (2006), $1.13M (#173), 107/0/0/1/8/23/2/0/25/80 (.748)
25. Jane Park (2007), $1.01M (#191), 85/0/0/3/6/11/4/1/22/58 (.682)
26. Katie Futcher (2006), $1.00M (#192), 120/0/0/1/7/16/0/1/36/83 (.692)

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Ranking the LPGA's Rookie Class of 2009

Now that I've finished ranking the rookie classes from the LPGA that I group under the moniker "Tseng Dynasty," it's time to turn my attention to the next generation, which I've been calling New Blood.

Simply the Best

1. Ji-Yai Shin. 2011 was a down year for her, as she had trouble adjusting to a new swing, new coach, and new caddy, but when you consider that she was able to gain distance off the tee without sacrificing accuracy, hit more greens than the previous season, and remain among the best putters on the LPGA, you'll understand that a down year for her is a career year for most golfers. Still, she barely held onto her JLPGA card with a blah 48th-place finish on their money list in 6 starts, so it'll be interesting to see how she responds and what kind of schedule she puts together in 2012.
2. Michelle Wie. Chapter 4 of her golfing career is ready to start once she finishes up her last classes at Stanford this spring, so we'll see what she's able to do when the LPGA is her full-time job. After a roller-coaster 1st 3 chapters (I: Young Phenom; II: Troubled Teen; III. Student-Athlete), she'll probably be looking for some more stability and consistent excellence in 2012. Although she has a decent share of wins (2) and a good share of top 3s (10) over her 1st 3 seasons as an LPGA member, she doesn't get nearly the number of top 10s and top 20s that she should. Maybe being able to practice more will help straighten out her driver and get her more confidence on the greens.
3. Stacy Lewis. She's improved each year she's been out on tour and matured into one of the top players on the planet in 2011. Soon we'll see whether she will sustain this upward trajectory, level off, or struggle in 2012. I'm betting on the 1st.
4. Anna Nordqvist. She has the 2nd-highest number of top 20s in her class (well behind Shin but 4 ahead of Wie in the same number of starts), but hasn't been able to keep up the torrid pace of wins and tournaments in contention from her rookie season over the past 2 seasons. Even though she gained distance and accuracy off the tee in 2011, her putter held her back for most of the season. If she can improve her touch around and on the greens, watch out for her in 2012.

The Contenders

5. Mika Miyazato. She dramatically improved her driving accuracy in 2011 and enjoyed a lot more made cuts and top 20s than in her previous 2 seasons, but her biggest achievement was finishing in the top 10 in 3 of 4 majors (her worst finish was T14 at the Women's British Open), thereby maximizing her donation to Japan relief that season. I'm thinking she's ready to contend a lot more often in 2012.
6. Vicky Hurst. She lead the tour in driving distance in 2009 and was 2nd in 2010, but lost a lot of distance and couldn't hit 60% of her fairways for the 2nd-straight season, which put a lot of pressure on her rather average skills with her irons, wedges, and putter. She needs to become a more complete player to compete successfully with the best on the LPGA.

Quantum Leap Candidates

7. M.J. Hur. She's been going in the wrong direction with her game over the last 3 seasons, but despite having trouble with almost every aspect of her game in 2011, she's firmly in Category 1 on the 2012 Priority Status List, so she'll have every opportunity to reverse these trends this coming season.
8. Chella Choi. Very quietly had the best year of her career in 2011, despite worse-than-average putting for most of it. A classic precision player, she needs to improve her hybrid and iron play so that she can give herself more and better birdie chances in 2012.
9. Mindy Kim. Got off to a hot start in 2010 but couldn't sustain it into the last 2/3rds of the season. Basically, her worse-than-average ball-striking caught up with her once her putter cooled off--and her putting got worse as her ball-striking regressed to mean as the season wore on.
10. Haeji Kang. Another player whose weaknesses with her ball-striking contributed to her problems with her putting in 2011. Whereas the season before she averaged 1.77 putts per green in regulation, last season she ballooned to 1.87 PPGIR. If she doesn't turn this trend around soon, her 3rd full season on tour (after having made the leap from the Futures Tour mid-way through her rookie year) threatens to be her last.
11. Pornanong Phatlum. After grinding it out on the Futures Tour in 2010, she made the most of her opportunities on the LPGA in 2011, making the cut in 15 of 17 starts. Next step for her is to keep improving her overall game so that she can start competing for top 20s and better finishes.

On the Bottom, Looking Up

12. Samantha Richdale. At #143 on the priority status list, she should get more than the 10 starts she got in 2011 and hopefully will be able to build up more of a playing rhythm. The key is to get out to a fast start, something many golfers from the northern states and the Great White North often find difficult to do.
13. Jessica Shepley. At #141 on the priority status list, she should get plenty of opportunities to play in 2012 and is looking to build on streak of 4 made cuts in a row to close out last season.
14. Angela Oh. At #115 on the priority status list, she'll finally get a chance to put together a full season on the LPGA. She made the 1st and only cut of her career last season and simply can't afford to have another such year. This is a make-or-break year for her.

On the Outside, Looking In

15. Shiho Oyama. Finally returned to the winner's circle in Japan after suffering through 2 years of elbow problems (tendinitis and a long recovery from surgery) most likely brought on by her intense preparations for her rookie season on the LPGA. Although she finished #124 on the 2011 LPGA money list, she turned down membership for 2012. But I wouldn't be surprised to see her try again for the LPGA if she returns to the elite of the JLPGA this coming season. I'm sure she wants to improve on her #12 standing from last year's money list over there.
16. Tania Elosegui. Having dropped to #33 on the 2011 LET money list, a return engagement on the LPGA is looking increasingly unlikely.
17. Kim Welch. Tried out the LET for awhile but didn't find much success on it. I'm assuming she'll be on the Symetra Tour full-time in 2012. Probably a make-or-break year for her, as well.
18. Nontaya Srisawang. She was #60 on the LET money list last season in only 13 starts, so it's looking like she'll divide her time between Europe and Asian tours in 2012. It would be great to see her back on the LPGA soon as part of a wave of young Thai golfers seeking success outside the LAGT.
19. Song Yi Choi. She never made a cut in her 17 career starts on the LPGA and now I'm not sure whether she's seeking her fortune on the KLPGA or has already retired from competitive golf.

Over and Out

20. Jeehae Lee. Well, she gave the LPGA and the LET the ol' college try, but wasn't seeing the results she needed to keep her professional golf experiment alive any longer.
21. Sunny Oh. Working as a teaching professional at the Lakes at El Segundo while hoping her slowly-healing elbow injury sustained at the U.S. Women's Open during her rookie season allows her to return to competitive golf.

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the January 2012 ranking.

2011 LPGA Money List (rank), scoring average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone was playing last season--how much money they made, how they scored, how many birdies they averaged per round, and how many greens they hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are the most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future (although with so many events out of the country, it would be nice for the LPGA to collect performance stats there, too!).

NAME/$$/SCORING AVE./BIRDIES PER ROUND/GREENS IN REGULATION
1. Stacy Lewis, $1.36M (#4), 70.98 (#7), 3.70 (#2), 70.6% (#11)
2. Ji-Yai Shin, $720.7K (#15), 70.81 (#4), 3.59 (#24), 70.9% (#9)
3. Michelle Wie, $627.9K (#18), 71.94 (#24), 3.39 (#23), 69.7% (#19)
4. Mika Miyazato, $591.7K (#22), 71.17 (#12), 3.31 (#19), 68.5% (#23)
5. Anna Nordqvist, $589.8K (#23), 71.22 (#13), 3.41 (#19), 70.4% (#12)
6. Chella Choi, $325.3K (#35), 71.96 (#25), 2.96 (#34), 70.1% (#14)
7. Mindy Kim, $262.1K (#38), 72.44 (#38), 3.11 (#40), 65.8% (#53)
8. Vicky Hurst, $201.4K (#45), 72.99 (#62), 3.00 (#33), 64.1% (#87)
9. Pornanong Phatlum, $149.7K (#57), 72.55 (#43), 2.92 (#49), 64.8% (#70)
10. M.J. Hur, $87.2K (#74), 73.88 (#102), 2.69 (#65), 59.4% (#126)
11. Haeji Kang, $81.7K (#77), 73.50 (#85), 2.54 (#73), 62.4% (#104)
12. Jessica Shepley, $23.7K (#113), 73.24 (#75), 2.80 (#109), 58.0% (#132)
13. Samantha Richdale, $22.7K (#115), 74.19 (#115), 2.63 (#108), 62.6% (#103)
14. Jeehae Lee, $18.0K (#123), 74.42 (#125), 2.65 (#110), 61.3% (#111)
15. Shiho Oyama, $17.8K (#124), 73.23 (n.r.), 2.31 (n.r.), 65.6% (n.r.)
16. Angela Oh, $4.5K (#149), 74.77 (#132), 2.23 (#121), 61.6% (#109)

Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events started/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/withdrawals/disqualifications/missed cuts/finished events (rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the '09ers all started at the same time, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to players who have not been exempt every season (although that in itself is an indication of how someone's career has been going!). What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now--although Thomas Atkins posted an inflation-adjusted LPGA Career Top 50 as of the end of the 2008 season and a Best of All Time ranking over at Hound Dog LPGA). In any case, I include the other ways of seeing how the '09ers finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. Many thanks to the LPGA for updating their 2011 Performance Chart after every event (although it would be nice for them to include the CME Titleholders in it)!

NAME/$$/STARTS/MAJORS/WINS/TOP3/TOP10/TOP20/WD/DQ/MC/FIN (RATE)
1. Ji-Yai Shin, $4.31M (#46), 61/1*/8**/16/33/45/1/0/1/59 (.967)
2. Michelle Wie, $2.43M (#89), 58/0/2/10/20/28/2/0/5/51 (.879)
3. Stacy Lewis, $2.22M (#99), 70/1/1/5/18/30/0/0/13/57 (.814)
4. Anna Nordqvist, $1.90M (#115), 58/1/2/4/14/32/0/0/4/54 (.931)
5. Mika Miyazato, $1.49M (#133), 65/0/0/2/12/28/0/0/11/54 (.831)
6. Vicky Hurst, $.92M (#208), 67/0/0/1/6/15/0/0/14/53 (.791)
7. M.J. Hur, $.90M (#213), 64/0/1/2/5/12/2/0/21/41 (.640)
8. Chella Choi, $.53M (#274), 53/0/0/0/2/10/0/0/15/38 (.717)
9. Mindy Kim, $.42M ($301), 50/0/0/0/5/8/1/0/21/28 (.560)
10. Haeji Kang, $.39M (#310), 51/0/0/0/2/4/0/0/17/34 (.667)
11. Pornanong Phatlum, $.17M (#436), 23/0/0/0/0/5/0/0/4/19 (.826)
12. Shiho Oyama, $.14M (#459), 20/0/0/0/1/1/0/0/10/10 (.500)
13. Samantha Richdale, $.06M (#569), 28/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/17/11 (.393)
14. Tania Elosegui, $.03M (#645), 15/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/12/3 (.200)
15. Jeehae Lee, $.03M (#663), 28/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/22/6 (.214)
16. Jessica Shepley, $.03M (#674), 15/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/9/6 (.400)
17. Angela Oh, $4.5K (#874), 11/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/10/1 (.091)
18. Kim Welch, $2.2K (#932), 5/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/1 (.200)
19. Sunny Oh, $0K (n.r.), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/0 (.000)
20. Nontaya Srisawang, $0K (n.r.), 4/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/0 (.000)
21. Song Yi Choi, $0K (n.r.), 17/0/0/0/0/0/1/0/16/0 (.000)

Other Career Measures: Rolex Rankings (as of 1/9/12) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 1/8/12) and rank; International Wins (as of the end of the 2011 season): This is a way of seeing how those '09ers who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Ji-Yai Shin, 7.30 (#7), 69.75 (#5); 28
2. Stacy Lewis, 6.50 (#9), 69.86 (#7); 0
3. Michelle Wie, 5.00 (#17), 71.24 (#32); 0
4. Mika Miyazato, 4.29 (#24), 70.37 (#15); 1
5. Anna Nordqvist, 3.83 (#31), 70.24 (#10); 0
6. Shiho Oyama, 3.55 (#35), 71.63 (#48); 12
7. Chella Choi, 2.05 (#70), 71.58 (#44); 0
8. Mindy Kim, 1.69 (#86), 72.41 (#84); 0
9. Vicky Hurst, 1.62 (#92), 72.72 (#99); 0
10. Pornanong Phatlum, 1.53 (#99), 71.73 (#52); 0
11. M.J. Hur, 1.20 (#130), 74.12 (#195); 0
12. Haeji Kang, 1.16 (#133), 73.39 (#143); 0
13. Tania Elosegui, .57 (#233), 74.68 (#245); 1
14. Nontaya Srisawang, .48 (#257), 73.74 (#165); 0
15. Jessica Shepley, .27 (#328), 73.50 (#149); 0
16. Jeehae Lee, .27 (#332), 75.64 (#311); 0
17. Samantha Richdale, .18 (#388), 75.09 (#271); 0
18. Kim Welch, .11 (#451), 76.05 (#348); 0
19. Angela Oh, .11 (#457), 75.80 (#329); 0
20. Song Yi Choi, n.r., 78.26 (n.r. [too few events]); 0

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Ranking the LPGA's Rookie Class of 2008

I used to group together the LPGA's rookie classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008 into a generation I called "Young Guns," in honor of the noise so many of them were making in the upper echelons of women's professional golf so soon after they joined the top tour in the world. Then Ya Ni Tseng exploded in 2011 and even I had to admit that this generation should be known as the "Tseng Dynasty," as bangkokbobby so memorably coined it.

The Class of 2008 will probably go down in history as Tseng's, but I wouldn't be surprised if her rival for Rookie of the Year in 2008 and for Player of the Year in 2010, Na Yeon Choi, plays Karrie Webb to Tseng's Sorenstam. Plus, 2011 witnessed some serious stirrings from the next tier of players in the class, as most of them emerged briefly from Tseng's and Choi's shadows to claim a victory. As opposed to the '06ers and '07ers, then, who mostly struggled last season, the top '08ers took center stage on the LPGA. Let's review how they all did.

Simply the Best

1. Ya Ni Tseng. She had a season for the record books. More on that soon!
2. Na Yeon Choi. She continued to play at a very high level--remaining among the very best female golfers on the planet--but got lapped by her ROY rival anyway. To put this in perspective, Choi has only 1 fewer career top 20 than Morgan Pressel, but she has 46 fewer starts than the '06er. She has more top 10s than anyone else in her generation and has way more top 3s than anyone except Tseng. Her 5 career LPGA wins put her behind only Tseng (12) and Miyazato (7). She's only missed 2 cuts as an LPGA member in her 97 starts. She's broken the $1M barrier in season winnings 4 years in a row. But she's going to have to do even better to make up ground on Tseng!

The Contenders

3. Amy Yang. Well, she couldn't break through for her 1st career LPGA victory and she just missed breaking the $1M barrier in season winnings, but she did play very good golf pretty much all year and captured a KLPGA major late in the season. If she can continue to improve her putting in 2012, she can have a monster year.
4. Hee Young Park. A moving win over Sandra Gal at the CME Titleholders capped off a much-improved 2nd half of the season in 2011, but her iron play and putting need to improve in 2012 if she's going to build on it.
5. Momoko Ueda. A win at the Mizuno salvaged both her LPGA and JLPGA seasons, but overall, the frustration continued for her in 2011. Even though her ball-striking was much improved, her putting was truly horrific no matter where she played. At least she knows what she needs to be working on for 2012!
6. Sandra Gal. She bounced back from her worst LPGA season in 2010 with her best in 2011, kick-started by a fantastic win at the Kia over "Final-Round Queen" Ji-Yai Shin when she stuck her wedge on 18 inside Shin's own stuck wedge. That one has my vote for shot of the year!
7. Shanshan Feng. She won twice on the JLPGA, finished 7th on their money list on a limited schedule there, and played solid golf on the LPGA, with her best performance coming at the Mizuno, where she finished runner-up to Ueda, but she'll have to build on her momentum from last season's late Asian swing to start moving back up this list in 2012. Good news is she's a good straight shooter in the Kerr-Stanford-Kim-Yoo mold and was #4 in greens in regulation in 2011. Bad news is the birdies weren't falling for her as often as for most everyone ahead of her on this list! If she can get the putts to drop in the States like they were dropping for her in Japan, watch out for her this coming season.

Quantum Leap Candidate

8. Eunjung Yi. She'll be back on tour on a medical exemption after playing in only 6 events in 2011.

On the Bottom, Looking Up

9. Taylor Leon. Last year was nothing to write home about, but at #128 on the priority status list, she has a good chance to bounce back this year. Of course, that's exactly what I wrote at the end of the 2010 season, as well.
10. Anna Grzebien. Her comeback in 2011 on a medical exemption wasn't all that impressive, but she managed to snag position #138 on the priority status list for 2012, so she lives to fight another day.
11. Sarah Kemp. At #100 on the LPGA's 2012 Priority Status List, will this finally be the season that she figures out how to translate her successes Down Under to the big tour? She was #63 on the LET's 2011 money list in only 9 starts over there, so she certainly has the talent to do better on the LPGA than she has so far.
12. Nicole Hage. She dropped from #115 on last year's priority status list to #146 on this one, but odds are she'll get in her share of events in 2012. She just has to take better advantage of her opportunities!

On the Outside, Looking In

13. Jimin Jeong. She finished outside the top 125 on the LPGA money list in 2011 and missed the 72-hole cut at LPGA Q-School, so I assume that means she's headed to either the Symetra Tour or the KLPGA in 2012.
14. Anja Monke. Just as I predicted, she made the LET her primary tour last season, where she dropped from #11 on their money list in 2010 to #58 in 2011.
15. Hannah Jun. She ended 2011 at #40 on the LET money list, so she'll be spending most of her time there in 2012, although her T38 at LPGA Q-School gives her very high status on the Symetra Tour, if she does decide to try for more than her 4 starts last season on the Futures Tour.
16. Ashleigh Simon. She's developed into one of the better players on the LET (#17 on their money list in 2010, #15 in 2011), so it's no surprise she's staying there in 2012.
17. Leah Wigger. She finished #15 on the Futures Tour money list in 2011, but she didn't do well in LPGA Q-School, so it's on to the Symetra Tour for her in 2012.
18. Onnarin Sattayabanphot. A full-time JLPGA member for the 1st time in 2011, she didn't do anything all that special, but she did secure a full-status card for 2012 at their Q-School. Let's see if she can do better there this year!
19. Sofie Andersson. She had hand surgery in fall 2011 and wasn't recovered enough to advance out of the pre-qualifying tournament for LET Q-School earlier this week, so I'm assuming she'll be on the Symetra Tour in 2012 by virtue of her #68 standing on their 2011 money list.
20. Sarah Oh. She finished 10th on the ALPG Order of Merit in 2011 and is 17th so far this year, but she just can't seem to ever get any status on another tour.
21. Violeta Retamoza. She didn't make it out of pre-qualifying for LET Q-School last week, but since I thought she was retired from competitive golf, I was surprised to see that she even tried.
22. Emma Cabrera-Bello. She finished #101 on the 2011 LET money list, but isn't in the field for their Final Qualifying Tournament. Is her competitive career over?

Over and Out

23. Louise Friberg. After missing every single cut in 2011, she pulled the plug on her competitive career and is pursuing a teaching/writing career in the golf industry.
24. Anna Rawson. I'm assuming the "sabbatical" from professional golf that she announced awhile back is now permanent, but I haven't really dug into her web site to check.
25. Carolina Llano. She only played 3 times on the Futures Tour in 2011, none since mid-July, and didn't enter LPGA or LET Q-School, so I'm assuming she's calling it quits, competitive golf-wise.
26. Liz Janangelo. A local paper reported she's going to continue competing professionally here and there, but will primarily focus on a career as a teaching pro.
27. Chris Brady. Have to assume her competitive career is over..
28. Amie Cochran. Ditto.
29. Hwanhee Lee. Ditto. Perhaps she's continuing to focus on her fashion design career in 2012?
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff. Ditto.

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the January 2012 ranking.

2011 LPGA Money List (rank), scoring average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone is playing this young season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, and how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are the most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future. Of course, because the LPGA doesn't keep performance stats for international events, the GIR rates are a little skewed for the top players in the class. Maybe Tseng would have been #1 in yet another category if the LPGA kept better stats!

NAME/$$/SCORING AVE./BIRDIES PER ROUND/GREENS IN REGULATION
1. Ya Ni Tseng, $2.92M (#1), 69.66 (#1), 4.65 (#1), 74.3% (#2)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $1.36M (#3), 70.53 (#2), 3.93 (#4), 70.0% (#15)
3. Amy Yang, $912.2K (#10), 71.12 (#10), 3.53 (#8), 70.1% (#13)
4. Hee Young Park, $851.8K (#12), 72.42 (#37), 3.00 (#28), 67.8% (#33)
5. Sandra Gal, $623.5K (#20), 71.64 (#19), 3.51 (#14), 65.7% (#58)
6. Shanshan Feng, $362.1K (#32), 71.72 (#20), 3.33 (#40), 73.8% (#4)
7. Momoko Ueda, $333.5K (#34), 72.19 (#31), 2.94 (#55), 70.8% (#10)
8. Sarah Kemp, $58.5K (#85), 74.35 (#119), 2.62 (#85), 65.0% (#67)
9. Taylor Leon, $40.6K (#100), 73.29 (#77), 3.18 (#94), 63.9% (#88)
10. Anna Grzebien, $29.4K (#108), 73.69 (#92), 2.41 (#103), 65.5% (#64)
11. Nicole Hage, $18.7K (#121), 74.17 (#112), 2.93 (#98), 63.2% (#95)
12. Jimin Jeong, $12.4K (#132), 74.50 (#126), 2.31 (#145), 57.3% (#136)
13. Eunjung Yi, $6.2K (#146), 77.53 (n.r.), 1.47 (n.r.), 54.1% (n.r.)
14. Louise Friberg, $0 (n.r.), 75.68 (#139), 2.18 (n.r.), 57.3% (n.r.)
14. Hannah Jun, $0 (n.r.), 76.83 (n.r.), 2.17 (n.r.), 58.3% (n.r.)
14. Anja Monke, $0 (n.r.), 76.00 (n.r.), 3.00 (n.r.), 69.4% (n.r.)

Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events started/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/withdrawals/disqualifications/missed cuts/finished events (rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the Class of 2008 hasn't been at this all too long, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who have not been exempt every season (although that in itself is an indication of how someone's career has been going!). What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now--although Thomas Atkins has posted an inflation-adjusted LPGA Career Top 50 as of the end of the 2008 season and a Best of All Time ranking over at Hound Dog LPGA). In any case, I include the other ways of seeing how the '08ers finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. Many thanks to the LPGA for updating their 2011 Performance Chart after every event (well, except the last one). [Note: *=non-member win.]

NAME/$$/STARTS/MAJORS/WINS/TOP3/TOP10/TOP20/WD/DQ/MC/FIN (RATE)
1. Ya Ni Tseng, $7.54M (#15), 95/5/12/29/46/68/0/0/4/91 (.958)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $5.67M (#32), 97/0/5/22/48/70/0/0/2/95 (.979)
3. Hee Young Park, $2.32M (#96), 96/0/1/4/19/32/0/0/18/78 (.813)
4. Amy Yang, $2.04M (#108), 74/0/0/4/16/30/0/0/8/66 (.892)
5. Momoko Ueda, $1.40M (#141), 70/0/2*/2/8/21/0/0/12/58 (.829)
6. Shanshan Feng, $1.24M (#160), 82/0/0/2/12/19/1/0/24/57 (.695)
7. Sandra Gal, $1.21M (#163), 86/0/1/2/7/22/2/0/19/65 (.756)
8. Louise Friberg, $476.6K (#292), 72/0/1/1/3/4/0/0/47/25 (.347)
9. Eunjung Yi, $475.7K (#293), 59/0/1/1/1/2/1/0/25/33 (.559)
10. Taylor Leon, $289.7K (#350), 56/0/0/0/3/6/0/0/31/25 (.446)
11. Sarah Kemp, $286.0K (#352), 64/0/0/0/2/7/0/1/31/32 (.500)
12. Anna Grzebien, $243.3K (#378), 54/0/0/0/0/5/3/0/24/27 (.500)
13. Jimin Jeong, $198.8K (#407), 51/0/0/0/2/3/2/0/26/23 (.451)
14. Anna Rawson, $166.9K (#434), 46/0/0/0/1/4/1/0/29/16 (.348)
15. Carolina Llano, $111.3K (#495), 40/0/0/0/1/1/0/0/25/15 (.375)
16. Anja Monke, $109.3K (#500), 22/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/10/12 (.545)
17. Ashleigh Simon, $72.9K (#544), 30/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/17/13 (.433)
18. Leah Wigger, $58.8K (#575), 36/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/24/12 (.333)
19. Nicole Hage, $43.0K (#622), 33/0/0/0/0/1/1/0/25/7 (.212)
20. Liz Janangelo, $38.1K (#638), 35/0/0/0/0/0/1/0/24/10 (.286)
21. Hannah Jun, $32.0K (#656), 12/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/7/5 (.417)
22. Amie Cochran, $17.2K (#735), 5/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/4/1 (.200)
23. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, $8.6K (#818), 8/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/2 (.250)
24. Chris Brady, $6.1K (#855), 4/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/2 (.500)
25. Violeta Retamoza, $2.2K (#933), 19/0/0/0/0/0/1/0/17/1 (.053)
26. Emma Cabrera-Bello, $0K (n.r.), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/0 (.000)
27. Sarah Oh, $0K (n.r.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/3/0 (.000)
28. Hwanhee Lee, $0K (n.r.), 5/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/5/0 (.000)
29. Sofie Andersson, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)

Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 1/9/12) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 1/8/12) and rank, International Wins (as of today): This is a way of seeing how those '08ers who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Ya Ni Tseng, 17.23 (#1), 68.77 (#1); 8
2. Na Yeon Choi, 9.70 (#3), 69.57 (#3); 5
3. Amy Yang, 5.67 (#12), 70.49 (#19); 4
4. Shanshan Feng, 5.51 (#13), 70.61 (#21); 2
5. Hee Young Park, 3.35 (#38), 71.36 (#36); 4
6. Sandra Gal, 3.23 (#41); 71.15 (#29); 0
7. Momoko Ueda, 2.61 (#50), 72.10 (#69); 9
8. Ashleigh Simon, 1.26 (#127), 73.61 (#157); 2
9. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, 1.00 (#157), 73.15 (#125); 0
10. Sarah Kemp, .79 (#183), 74.12 (#196); 0
11. Anja Monke, .70 (#198), 74.70 (#247); 3
12. Hannah Jun, .59 (#228), 74.88 (#262); 0
13. Taylor Leon, .31 (#155), 73.68 (#162); 0
14. Louise Friberg, .27 (#327), 76.35 (#367); 0
15. Sarah Oh, .23 (#352), 74.98 (n.r. [too few events]); 0
16. Eunjung Yi, .17 (#393), n.r.; 0
17. Emma Cabrera-Bello, .14 (#415), 76.19 (#356); 0
18. Anna Grzebien, .13 (#433), 73.41 (#145); 0
19. Jimin Jeong, .12 (#439), 75.34 (n.r. [too few events]); 0
20. Leah Wigger, .12 (#446), 73.98 (#187); 0
21. Nicole Hage, .11 (#454), 74.60 (#238); 0
22. Anna Rawson, .05 (#569), n.r.; 0
23. Sofie Andersson, n.r., 75.66 (#314); 0
24. Carolina Llano, n.r., 75.25 (n.r. [too few events]); 0

Friday, January 13, 2012

Check Out Who's Playing in the LET's Final Qualifying Tournament

The LET's Q-School enters its final stage this coming Sunday and a host of former or current LPGAers, along with many Futures Tour, SunCoast Series, and Cactus Tour regulars, are entered in the Final Qualifying Tournament, which also includes those who made it into the top 35 (and ties) from Group A and Group B in the Pre-Qualifying Tournament that concluded earlier this week.

Here's an alphabetical list:

Dori Carter (#97 on LPGA Priority Status List)
Esther Choe (Group A medallist)
Carlota Ciganda (#257 on LPGA Priority Status List)
Valentine Derrey (#158 on LPGA Priority Status List)
Kendall Dye
Jodi Ewart (#101 on LPGA Priority Status List)
Meaghan Francella (#98 on LPGA Priority Status List)
Benedikte Grotvedt
Stefanie Kenoyer
Caroline Larsson
Jennie Lee (#95 on LPGA Priority Status List)
Camila Lennarth
Amelia Lewis (#139 on LPGA Priority Status List)
Miriam Nagl
Whitney Neuhauser
Garrett Phillips
Dawn Shockley
Karin Sjodin (#114 on LPGA Priority Status List)
Alison Whitaker
Jessica Yadloczky
Heather Bowie Young (#70 on LPGA Priority Status List)

Looks like the youngsters are looking to pursue the Caroline Hedwall track, Francella and Sjodin the Julieta Granada track, and Young the rare veteran game-revival track via dual LPGA-LET membership! Let's see who gets full membership, who gets partial membership, and who gets nothing....

Thursday, January 12, 2012

A Hitchhiker's Guide to the 2012 LPGA Priority Status List

Just as the LPGA announced their 2012 schedule, they also released the new priority status list that establishes members' access to regular, full-field events. Actually, last December, Seoul Sisters.com com regular IceCat noticed that the new list went live early on LPGA.com, and produced his own analysis of it, from which I'm drawing to do mine. Here's his take in its entirety:

There are five medical exemptions (including JJ) within Category 1, meaning that there are 85 players instead of 80 in the coveted position. Laura Davies is the lone player in Category 2 (Career Top 20), while Helen Alfredsson and Ji Young Oh are in Category 4 (Multiple Wins In The Past 2 Years). Next on the list is Eunjung Yi, who holds a medical exemption in Category 6 (One Win In The Past 2 Years), followed by the two Category 7s (2011 non-member winners So Yeon Ryu and Alexis Thompson) and the Top Five from the 2011 Futures Tour Money List (Category 9 - Kathleen Ekey, Lisa Ferrero, Mo Martin, Sydnee Michaels and Jane Rah).

Grace holds position #92 in Category 11, but as sort of revenge for the 2004 Kraft Nabisco Championship (or more likely just a coincidence) Aree Song was shoehorned in between her and #91 Junthima Gulyanamitta, who was the Q-school medalist, by way of a medical exemption. Grace's true Priority List position thus becomes #99, while Jin Young Pak, who finished #82 on the 2011 Money List, becomes listed #94/actual #101, just ahead of another medical exemption Irene Cho. There's a third medical further down in Category 11.

Jelly is the lone player in Category 12 (Top 40 Two Years Prior), putting her at listed #130/actual #139. The next player on the list is the lone occupant of Category 14 (Career Top 40), Laura Diaz. Anyone in Category 15 and below probably can't count on more than a handful of starts in 2012, and at listed #148/actual #159 Jeehae Lee decided to rejoin the real world and put away her clubs.

Let's slow down and unpack IceCat's take by reviewing the key categories of membership on the LPGA. Category 1, for the top 80 on the money list from 2011, includes 85 golfers. Who are the lucky additions (or unlucky, if you consider that while some of them got medical exemptions for happy reasons like a maternity leave, others are coming back from injuries or worse)?

(25a) Karine Icher
(41a) Jeong Jang
(52a) Nicole Castrale
(74a) Janice Moodie
(75a) Maria Hernandez

Next on the list is the lone Category 2 player, a player in the top 20 on career money list who decided to exercise one of her 2-time exemptions into this category, someone following in the footsteps of Meg Mallon, Lorie Kane, and Liselotte Neumann, among others:

(81) Laura Davies

Category 3 includes major winners in the past 5 years who have played at least 10 tournaments in the last 2, which includes exactly...nobody in 2012 (nobody not already in Category 1, that is).

Category 4 is made up of players who have won at least twice in the past 4 seasons and played at least 10 events in the past 2 without getting into a higher priority status category. That would include, um, 2 players:

(82) Helen Alfredsson

(83) Ji Young Oh

Alfredsson was focusing on her television career in 2011; I wonder how many times she'll tee it up in 2012?

Then we skip a couple of categories (no new winners in 2010 yet or 3-time winners in a single season who aren't already in a higher priority status category) down to #6, which includes players who have won once in the last 2 seasons:

(83a) Eunjung Yi

Hmm, another medical exemption. Her last (and only) win came in 2009 at the now-returning Farr event, so it's fitting she's also returning in 2012!

We actually have 2 exciting non-member winners from 2011 in Category 7, who will probably be the top 2 rivals for Rookie of the Year in 2012:

(84) So Yeon Ryu
(85) Lexi Thompson

Skipping again (since no events have been played in 2010, it's impossible for anyone from a lower category to jump into Category 8 via getting into the top 40 of the 2012 money list in 2011) down to Category 9, here are the proud top 5 from the 2011 Futures Tour money list:

(86) Kathleen Ekey

(87) Lisa Ferrero

(88) Mo Martin

(89) Sydnee Michaels

(90) Jane Rah

I'd really like to see this list expanded to 10 to give more opportunities to young players.

There's nobody in Category 10, as no non-members would have made the top 80 on the money list in 2011 who didn't already secure a higher status by winning, but we do get a neat clarification of what winnings are eligible for being counted towards this threshold: those that come in "official LPGA co-sponsored domestic tournaments with field[s] of seventy-five (75) or more." Sorry, couldn't resist correcting that grammar there (although it might make more sense to turn it singular: "any official LPGA co-sponsored domestic tournament with a field of seventy-five [75] or more.")

In any case, we then approach the last of the categories that will guarantee you entry into just about any full-field event you want, Category 11, which is made up of players who finished from #81 to #100 on the 2011 LPGA money list and from #1 to #20 in the 2011 LPGA Q-School. Here's where things get interesting, for two reasons.

First, the LPGA apparently took Hound Dog's and my critiques of the way they handled membership in this category for the 2009 season and have offered a clarification of what happens when someone gets higher priority status with her Q-School finish than her money list finish (unfortunately failing to cut that 1st comma from previous priority lists in the process).

However, if a player No. 81-100 on the LPGA Official Money List at the end of the last official LPGA tournament of the previous year, improves her status within this category by way of her finish in the LPGA Final Qualifying Tournament, she will assume the higher priority status. Her lower priority status will be assumed by the next available player within this category from the LPGA Official Money List of the previous year who has also not improved her status via the LPGA Final Qualifying Tournament.

Their clarifying example is indeed illuminating (although unfortunately they fix only one of the 3 typos I've previously noted):

Example: A player finishes 95th on the LPGA Official Money List at the end of the last official LPGA tournament of the previous year. She competes in the LPGA Final Qualifying Tournament and finishes 1st. She assumes the higher priority status within this category and vacates her lower priority status position, which is then assumed by the player who finishes 96th on the LPGA Money List of the previous year. If the player who finishes 96th on the LPGA Official Money List also improves her position within this category via the LPGA Final Qualifying Tournament, the player who finished 97th on the LPGA Official Money List will assume the vacated priority status by the [player] who finished 95th and the player who finished 98th will assume the priority status vacated by the player who finished 96th[,] etc.

As it turns out, there were no players already in Category 11 in this season's Q-School, so they didn't need to use this clarification this time around. But it's good to have it.

So here's how Category 11 looks for 2012:

(91) Junthima Gulyanmitta

(91a) Aree Song

(92) Grace Park

(93) Christine Song

(94) Jin Young Pak

(94a) Irene Cho

(95) Jennie Lee

(96) Marcy Hart

(97) Dori Carter

(98) Meaghan Francella

(98a) Wendy Doolan

(99) Karlin Beck

(100) Sarah Kemp

(101) Jodi Ewart

(102) Gwladys Nocera

(103) Sandra Changkija

(104) Lorie Kane

(105) Maude-Aimee Leblanc

(106) Sarah Jane Smith

(107) Rebecca Lee-Bentham

(108) Pernilla Lindberg

(109) Meredith Duncan

(110) Ilhee Lee

(111) Minea Blomqvist

(112) Jessica Korda

(113) Cydney Clanton

(114) Karin Sjodin

(115) Angela Oh

(116) Haru Nomura

(117) Stephanie Kono

(118) Giulia Sergas

(119) Victoria Tanco

(120) Silvia Cavalleri

(121) Ayaka Kaneko

(122) Shi Hyun Ahn

(123) Tanya Dergal

(124) Jane Park

(125) Hannah Yun

(126) Na On Min

(127) Elisa Serramia

(128) Taylor Leon

(129) Lizette Salas

Since there are 9 medical exemptions, Salas is really at #138, which means that (and this is my 2nd interesting thing about this category) she may have trouble getting into a full-field event that's smaller than the standard 144-player field.

As opposed to previous years, though, the lone Category 12er, Jee Young Lee, and the lone Category 14er, Laura Diaz, don't find themselves as close to the edge of that magic number as those in previous years, as they're listed at #130 and #131 but actually are at #139 and #140. While it's possible they'll have trouble getting into a few events, the real bubble girls are the Category 15ers, who finished #101 through #125 on the '11 LPGA money list:

(132) Stephanie Sherlock

(132a) Diana D'Alessio

(133) Michele Redman

(134) Mariajo Uribe

(135) Stephanie Louden

(136) Moira Dunn

(136a) Michelle Ellis
(137) Ashli Bunch

(138) Anna Grzebien

(139) Amelia Lewis

(140) Yoo Kyeong Kim

(141) Jessica Shepley

(142) Danah Bordner

(143) Samantha Richdale

(143a) Jill McGill

(144) Beth Bader

(145) Jenny Suh

(146) Nicole Hage

(147) Louise Stahle

(147a) Mikaela Parmlid

(148) Jeehae Lee [retired]

(149) Jennifer Rosales

This is a good mix of veterans and newbies. While most of them will have to get lucky to get into an event, there are always some players who skip a tournament they're eligible for, so it'll be interesting to see how far down this list the LPGA goes in 2012. Rosales is actually #162, so it's hard to imagine she'll get into all that many, short of Monday qualifying.

Category 16 includes those who finished #21 to #30 at LPGA Q-School in 2011:

(150) Veronica Felibert

(151) Lacey Agnew

(152) Sophia Sheridan

(153) Min Seo Kwak

(153a) Nannette Hill

(154) Paola Moreno

(155) Jacqui Concolino

(156) Mi Hyang Lee

(157) Patcharajutar Kongkraphan

Kongkraphan at actual #171 will be spending the vast majority of her time on the Symetra Tour in 2012, as will the players in Category 17 who finished #6 to #10 on the Futures Tour money list in 2011:

(158) Valentine Derrey

(159) Hanna Kang

(160) Jenny Gleason

(161) Tze-Chi Lin

I still believe that the gap in status between #5 and #6 on the Futures Tour is too large. If the LPGA doesn't want to expand Category 9 to 10 spots, why not give these players Category 15 status and turn the current Categories 15, 16, and 20 into a mirror image of Category 11? That way, those finishing between #21 and #45 at Q-School could be shuffled among those who finished between #101 and #125 on the money list. Right now, because the current Category 20ers (#31 through #40 and ties at Q-School) are stuck behind mostly-firmly-retired past champions, including Lorena Ochoa in Category 18 (made up of anyone in the top 80 of the money list in the last 3 years who also has a win in that span) and Dorothy Delasin, Kris Tschetter, Jackie Gallagher-Smith, and Birdie Kim in Category 19 (the only ones in it to have played on tour in the last 2 years), their status looks much worse than it really is:

(255) Mitsuki Katahira

(256) Thidapa Suwannapura
(257) Carlota Ciganda
(258) Izzy Beisiegel
(259) Kirby Dreher
(260) Juliana Murcia Ortiz
(261) Katy Harris
(262) Danielle Kang

If my proposed change had been put into effect for this year, then several additional players from Q-School would have been the last players to be shuffled into that new Category 16 I'm proposing. Since many players who finished between #21 and #45 in Q-School also finished between #101 and #125 on the money list, the shuffling would be a little complicated. But in any case they all would be behind the new Category 15ers, those who finished #6 through #10 on the Futures Tour money list in 2011, who would have become the new bubble girls of 2012.

I guess it comes down to whether you think finishing just outside the top 100 of the LPGA money list, just outside the top 5 of the Futures Tour money list, or just outside the top 20 of the Final Qualifying Tournament is a bigger achievement. Personally, I think that in 2012 there should be more of a reward for doing well on the Symetra Tour, more of a penalty for falling outside the top 100 of the LPGA money list, and more of a premium put on improving your status via Q-School. In fact, building on a post from December 2010, here's the full range of changes I'd like to see in the next priority status list:

Reduce Category 1 from the top 80 on the previous season's money list to the top 70.
Change Category 7 so that any non-member who wins--amateur or pro, older or younger than 18--is eligible for full membership immediately or in the following season.
Expand Category 8 from the top 40 on the current season's money list to the top 50--as calculated after every 7 events rather than using the current reshuffles for those in Category 15 and lower after the 8th and 14th events on the 2012 schedule.
Expand Category 9 from the top 5 on the previous season's Symetra Tour money list to the top 10.
Change Category 10 from non-members who would have made the top 80 on the previous season's money list via their maximum 6 sponsor exemptions into domestic full-field non-major events into non-members who would have made the top 70 on the previous season's money list in their maximum 4 sponsor exemptions into domestic full-field non-major events and maximum 2 sponsor exemptions into international limited-field non-major events. Any non-member who qualifies via this category is waived from having to meet the LPGA's minimum age requirement for membership.
Expand Category 11 to players ranked between #71 and #100 on the previous season's money list and the top 30 players from the previous season's Q-School using the same shuffling system as already exists.
Change Category 15 to include those who finished between #11 and #15 on the previous season's Symetra Tour money list.
Use the same system as exists in Category 11 for the new Category 16, which would shuffle those who finished between #101 and #130 on the money list in with those who finished between #31 and #60 from the previous season's Final Qualifying Tournament.
Put all the various veterans' allowances after Category 16.

In my system, assuming nobody takes advantage of any medical, non-member, career, or recent wins or winnings exemptions, you'd have 70 players in Category 1, 10 in Category 9, and 60 in Category 11, for a total of 140 players with a good shot at getting into any regular event. But you'd put a much higher premium on doing well on the Symetra Tour and only then increase opportunities for those in Q-School to skip ahead of those who couldn't make the top 70 on the LPGA money list. In effect, you'd be giving more incentives for low-priority-status LPGAers to focus on the Symetra Tour rather than ditching the LPGA/Symetra system and trying their luck on the JLPGA, KLPGA, or LET. You'd also be encouraging those who finished closer to #100 than #71 on the LPGA money list to improve their status by playing in Q-School. The increased competitiveness at Q-School, then, would help justify expanding access to higher-priority status to 10 more players than under the current system. And it gives a bigger margin for error for both struggling LPGAers and hot shots from the NCAA and from other tours (while ratcheting up the pressure on them). Plus, given that higher-status players skip LPGA events for all sorts of reasons, there still would be a premium on, and a reward for, getting close to those magic numbers of #100 and #30 on the money list and at Q-School, respectively.

Yes, doing all this wouldn't have saved the big names in this year's Category 20 like Kang, Ciganda, and Katahira, but who knows if they wouldn't have played just a little bit better at Q-School if they had been fighting to make the top 30 instead of the top 20? Even if they hadn't, wouldn't they be better off in the high 100s rather than the high 200s on the priority status list? Wouldn't it send a signal to young players around the world that the LPGA is lowering barriers to membership and giving them every chance to play their way in? If the tour has truly turned a corner in 2012 and can be expected to be in expansion mode in the next several years, now is the time to increase the odds that even more of the best female golfers on the planet want to make it their home.