Michelob Ultra Pairings: On Wie, TV, and the Future of the LPGA

I want to use the return of Michelle Wie to competition on the LPGA this week at the Michelob Ultra Open to revisit Mulligan Stu's instant classic from earlier this year on the LPGA's tv deals and pose a couple of questions to the golfosphere. First, has anyone read or heard anything more recent on the state of the LPGA's negotiations with U.S. tv networks than Jon Show's piece in Sports Business Journal? Second, has anyone been tracking the LPGA's ratings this season in a more systematic way than Steve DiMeglio in USAToday?

I ask because I'm wondering if there's still a Michelle Wie effect when it comes to tv ratings and whether Lorena Ochoa's quest for 5 wins in 5 straight starts has changed the kinds of equations Brandon Tucker's commentariat was making earlier this season. My position has always been that the LPGA doesn't need Michelle Wie to take off in the same way women's tennis did in the Williams sisters era, but I'm willing to follow the evidence on this.

I'm also wondering if we're in a "best of times/worst of times" moment in LPGA history. In his U.S. Women's Open preview, Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune offers some crucial historical perspective on LPGA purses, sponsorships, endorsements, and tv deals, as does Ron Sirak in this older piece. For a different kind of historical perspective, check out this golden oldie from Hound Dog! But he has also been sounding warning bells about the future of various LPGA events. Mulligan Stu has been following this, as well, in several key posts--and I've recently responded. For an optimistic take on the LPGA's future, see Ron Kroichick's piece in the San Francisco Chronicle. I've been optimistic so long, though, I'm beginning to lose patience. What say ye, golfosphere?

Well, that's a lot of links for those who haven't been following these issues as closely as MS, HD, and I have, but I'm putting them out there in hopes the golfosphere can improve on our efforts. In the mean time, I'll build upon Hound Dog's tournament preview and take a look at who the tournament organizers think have the best chance to win this week (and draw the most eyes to the screen). The strategy this week appears to be front-loading--the late morning groups going off the first tee lead up to some of the biggest names in the field:

Start Time: 8:32 AM
Stacy Prammanasudh
Maria Hjorth
Eun-Hee Ji

Start Time: 8:43 AM
Laura Diaz
Jee Young Lee
Brittany Lang

Start Time: 8:54 AM
Carin Koch
Young Kim
Lindsey Wright

Start Time: 9:05 AM
Lorena Ochoa
Annika Sorenstam
Suzann Pettersen

Start Time: 9:16 AM
Cristie Kerr
Karrie Webb
Paula Creamer

(Those last two are even more impressive than the JLPGA's first major's late morning threesomes of Ji-Yai Shin, Sakura Yokomine, and Yuri Fudoh and Se Ri Pak, Miho Koga, and Mi-Jeong Jeon!) But it's not like the early afternoon groups going off #10 in Friday's prime-time slot are chopped liver:

Start Time: 12:10 PM
Candie Kung
Mi Hyun Kim
Sophie Gustafson

Start Time: 12:21 PM
Jin Joo Hong
Inbee Park
Brittany Lincicome

Start Time: 12:32 PM
Christina Kim
Meaghan Francella
Grace Park

Start Time: 12:43 PM
Juli Inkster
Natalie Gulbis
Ya Ni Tseng

Start Time: 12:54 PM
Louise Friberg
Jeong Jang
Angela Stanford

Somewhat surprisingly, the early afternoon pairings off the front may be even better:

Start Time: 12:10 PM
Song-Hee Kim
Helen Alfredsson
Seon Hwa Lee

Start Time: 12:21 PM
Ji Young Oh
Momoko Ueda
Meg Mallon

Start Time: 12:32 PM
Hee-Won Han
Liselotte Neumann
Catriona Matthew

Start Time: 12:43 PM
Karen Stupples
Morgan Pressel
Nicole Castrale

Start Time: 12:54 PM
Julieta Granada
Angela Park
Lorie Kane

A bigger surprise to me, though, is the failure to put Michelle Wie (7:32 am off #1) and Ai Miyazato (1:05 pm off #10) into the weakest of the 4 prime-time quadrants (the late morning off the back one):

Start Time: 8:32 AM
Minea Blomqvist
Danielle Ammaccapane
Sherri Steinhauer

Start Time: 8:43 AM
Rachel Hetherington
Pat Hurst
Sung Ah Yim

Start Time: 8:54 AM
Silvia Cavalleri
Laura Davies
Teresa Lu

Start Time: 9:05 AM
Wendy Ward
Jane Park
Meena Lee

Start Time: 9:16 AM
Brandie Burton
Na Yeon Choi
Michele Redman

Nothing against Sung Ah Yim or Silvia Cavalleri, but they are neither veterans nor playing any better lately than Miyazato (much less media magnets like Wie). On the other hand, given that anything Wie does is news for the average non-LPGA fan, getting her round in early Thursday means that the journalists following her will need something else to do the rest of the day and may actually pay attention to the top players on tour. And if she has a chance to make the cut in her late afternoon start Friday, they may actually decide to come to the course early (I know, I'm dreaming, right?). Whatever the media strategy, it's certainly the right decision to make Wie earn her way into the weekend just like any other low-ranked player in the field (with apologies to Moira Dunn, who's another dewsweeper, just safely on the other side--being a veteran does have some privileges!). There's a clear case that Ai-chan deserves one of the prime-time quadrants (certainly more so than Granada, Francella, or Lincicome), but none for Wie.

[Update 1 (3:08 am): Ron Sirak made it through an entire column comparing the state of competition on the PGA and LPGA without once mentioning Michelle Wie. Nice job, Ron! Although there are plenty more likely candidates to join the LPGA's Big 3 than Pettersen and Kerr...!]

[Update 2 (1:48 pm): Hound Dog responds with recommendations to the LPGA on their tv negotiations. And courtgolf and Mulligan Stu vie for the commissioner's position in comments on the short version of this post up at Waggle Room.]

[Update 3 (5/8/08, 10:27 am): Ryan Ballengee weighs in with a well-thought-out piece on the LPGA's tv and streaming video prospects.]

[Update 4 (5/19/08, 12:25 pm): Ryan Ballengee has a sequel on the LPGA's Big 3 and its window of opportunity for a good tv deal.]

Michelob Ultra Preview/Predictions: This Is What Parity Looks Like

OK, so Lorena Ochoa ($1.5M) is in a class of her own on the LPGA money list, followed by Annika Sorenstam ($914K) and Paula Creamer ($828K), then by Yani Tseng ($445K), and then by Suzann Pettersen ($390K), Jeong Jang ($348K), and Angela Stanford ($325K). But just under $70K separates #8 Jee Young Lee ($257K) from #26 Karen Stupples ($189K). And roughly $100K separates #27 Candie Kung ($166K) and #65 Moira Dunn ($62K). So there are 7 tiers in the LPGA among the top 65 on the money list. The lack of separation among those on the bottom two and their relative closeness to the next two helps explain why Mulligan Stu, Hound Dog, and I are having so much trouble in the Pakpickers competition so far this year. Maybe this week at the Michelob Ultra will be different. I doubt it.

But let's look at some other stats to see if there are any indications of who belongs in the top 12 this week. There already are 56 players with at least 1 top 10 this season, on pace to smash last season's mark of 79, 2005's 84, 2006's 91, and even 2004's 97. Last season only 10 players made the top 10 in a third or better of their starts--we'll have to wait and see if as many players can do that this season as the high-water mark of 19 in 2005 (so far 13 have maintained that pace). But what goes into getting top 10s? Let's look at birdie rate, scoring average, and percentage of rounds under par. Ochoa (4.85, 68.44, 85.2%) and Sorenstam (3.92, 69.62, 84.6%) lead by far in these categories, of course. How about some other highly-ranked (and other) players who have been playing pretty well this season?

#12 Ya Ni Tseng: 3.80, 70.44, 64.0%
#4 Suzann Pettersen: 3.81, 70.69, 61.5%
n.r. Song-Hee Kim: 3.72, 71.22, 61.1%
#17 Lindsey Wright: 3.58, 70.69, 57.7%
#14 Hee-Won Han: 3.59, 70.93, 58.6%
#3 Paula Creamer: 3.63, 70.63, 53.3%
#26 Na Yeon Choi: 3.70, 71.30, 50.0%
#29 Karen Stupples: 3.54, 71.31, 53.8%
#7 Karrie Webb: 2.78, 71.11, 50.0%
#11 Angela Stanford: 3.47, 71.25, 46.9%
#5 Jeong Jang: 3.23, 71.32, 45.2%
#9 Seon Hwa Lee: 2.84, 71.55, 48.4%
#8 Cristie Kerr: 3.45, 71.66, 41.4%
n.r. Sun Young Yoo: 3.50, 72.08, 42.3%
#18 Maria Hjorth: 3.36, 72.04, 46.4%
#28 Inbee Park: 3.31, 71.81, 37.5%
#6 Jee Young Lee: 3.21, 72.06, 33.3%

So, taking into account momentum and past performances, here's who I think will break from the field at Kingsmill.

1. Ochoa
2. Creamer
3. Sorenstam
4. Pettersen
5. Tseng Ya Ni
6. Han Hee-Won
7. Lee Jee Young
8. Choi Na Yeon (she made it through Monday qualifying!)
9. Jang Jeong
10. Wright
11. Lee Seon Hwa
12. Kim Song-Hee

Alts: Kerr, Stanford, Webb

SemGroup Championship Sunday: The Fourth Time's the Charm for Paula Creamer

After losing a 2-shot lead on Juli Inkster on the final hole in regulation of the SemGroup Championship and facing her second playoff against a Hall of Famer in as many weeks, Paula Creamer could easily have figured she was snakebit in Tulsa. Her 3rd consecutive bogey on the 18th hole (and 4th straight over-par finish in her final 3 holes), coupled with Inkster's dropped 18-foot birdie putt, could have left her hanging her head. But this time her hands weren't shaking and she came away with the win, thanks to an 8-footer for birdie on the 2nd playoff hole.

While we wait for Hound Dog's recap and highlights, be sure to check out the LPGA.com overview and interviews, Doug Ferguson's AP story, and Mulligan Stu's reflections on Creamer's win--her 6th overall and her first without her dad in attendance.

Also finishing well were Jeong Jang (whose 68 pulled her even with Angela Stanford for 3rd place), Dorothy Delasin (whose 68 tied her with Lorena Ochoa and Brittany Lang for 5th despite a 78 on Thursday), and Jimin Kang (whose 67 was her 3rd-straight under-par round and netted her a solo 8th place despite her opening-round 82). Delasin and Kang, by the way, were the only two players in the field to break 70 at Cedar Ridge twice. I was pleased to see Jee Young Lee (71) hang in there for a top 10, Ai Miyazato (72) do the same for a top 15 (tied with New Yorker Danielle Downey!), Vicky Hurst (74) hang on for a T21, and Moira Dunn finish solidly at T35 (with the likes of Christina Kim, Minea Blomqvist, and Na On Min). New Yorker Meaghan Francella hung in there this week, too, and got a T23 for her efforts--her first good finish in a very long time (and tied with #1 New Yorker Laura Diaz). And fellow slumping Junior Mint Julieta Granada did her a couple better, tying Ai-chan for 14th place in her best finish since last year's U.S. Open and almost doubling her 2008 winnings in the process. Looks to me, though, that Jee Young Lee just jumped to the head of her class and generation on the money list this year--and into the top 10 overall.

But wins are the real currency on the LPGA and with hers Creamer has come very close to pulling even with Sorenstam as Ochoa's top competition. Meanwhile, Jang and Lee made up ground on Suzann Pettersen, while Stanford made a case to join the top 10 and Inkster the top 15 of the next Best of the LPGA ranking here. It'll be interesting to see whether those who suffered the past two weeks in a row play stronger in the Michelob Ultra Open than those who sat out this week--and how Sorenstam responds to Ochoa's struggles and Creamer's victory! Who says there's no competition on the LPGA now?

[Update 1 (8:52 am): Hound Dog's final-round play-by-play was worth the wait!]

[Update 2 (5/6/08, 3:02 am): Hound Dog's highlights and epilogue are not to be missed!]

[Update 3 (3:21 am): And be sure to check out Ryan Ballengee's reflections on what Creamer's win means for her and the LPGA.]

Crystal Geyser Ladies Golf Tournament Sunday: Koga! Koga! Koga!

Miho Koga birdied 3 of her final 4 holes to catch Maiko Wakabayashi in regulation and beat her in overtime at the Crystal Geyser Ladies Championship. Koga's 67 made up a 4-shot deficit on second-round co-leaders Wakabayashi and Ritsuko Ryu. Here's the Kyodo news service's summary:

CHIBA, Japan. Miho Koga ousted teenager Maiko Wakabayashi in a playoff to claim her first win of the season at the rain-interrupted Crystal Geyser Ladies on Sunday.

Koga watched second-round joint leader Wakabayashi bogey the third playoff hole on the 18th at Keiyo Country Club and held her nerve to calmly roll in a par putt and claim her eighth career victory.

Two cheers for the mainstream media! I didn't know the tournament was being held in the Full Metal Archivist's home town--cool deal for Koga, who had a runner-up and a couple of top 5s earlier this season, one that included an opening-round 63. With the win, Koga vaults to the top of the JLPGA money list, but don't feel too bad for Wakabayashi or Ryu--the former leaped to #17 and the latter to #28. Another big mover Sunday was Akiko Fukushima: her blistering 65 jumped her to a solo 4th place finish and to #12 on the money list.

Here's the top 10:

1st (playoff winner)/-10 Koga (71-68-67)
2nd/-10 Wakabayashi (66-69-71)
3rd/-9 Ryu (65-70-72)
4th/-8 Fukushima (72-71-65)
T5/-7 Akane Iijima (70-71-68), Midori Yoneyama (69-72-68), Shinobu Moromizato (68-72-69), Sakura Yokomine (70-69-70)
T9/-6 Hiromi Mogi (71-72-67), Mihoko Iseri (66-73-71)

Mulligan Stu figured out how to link to the real-time leaderboard in English. Nice job!

Rounding out the JLPGA money list's top 10 are Ayako Uehara, Bo-Bae Song, Hiroko Yamaguchi, Yokomine, Yukari Baba, Hyun-Ju Shin, Miki Saiki, Ji-Hee Lee, and Moromizato. Tops in scoring average thus far this season are Yokomine, Saiki, and Koga--don't be surprised to see the money list end up this way and to see 2 of the 3 head to the LPGA's Q-School. Just a feeling.

Cool Japanese Pictures

Here's a bunch of Japanese fairy tales, illustrated, of course.

And toys.

And links to lots of other pages of cool Japanese historical pictures and stuff.