Michelob Ultra Preview/Predictions: This Is What Parity Looks Like

OK, so Lorena Ochoa ($1.5M) is in a class of her own on the LPGA money list, followed by Annika Sorenstam ($914K) and Paula Creamer ($828K), then by Yani Tseng ($445K), and then by Suzann Pettersen ($390K), Jeong Jang ($348K), and Angela Stanford ($325K). But just under $70K separates #8 Jee Young Lee ($257K) from #26 Karen Stupples ($189K). And roughly $100K separates #27 Candie Kung ($166K) and #65 Moira Dunn ($62K). So there are 7 tiers in the LPGA among the top 65 on the money list. The lack of separation among those on the bottom two and their relative closeness to the next two helps explain why Mulligan Stu, Hound Dog, and I are having so much trouble in the Pakpickers competition so far this year. Maybe this week at the Michelob Ultra will be different. I doubt it.

But let's look at some other stats to see if there are any indications of who belongs in the top 12 this week. There already are 56 players with at least 1 top 10 this season, on pace to smash last season's mark of 79, 2005's 84, 2006's 91, and even 2004's 97. Last season only 10 players made the top 10 in a third or better of their starts--we'll have to wait and see if as many players can do that this season as the high-water mark of 19 in 2005 (so far 13 have maintained that pace). But what goes into getting top 10s? Let's look at birdie rate, scoring average, and percentage of rounds under par. Ochoa (4.85, 68.44, 85.2%) and Sorenstam (3.92, 69.62, 84.6%) lead by far in these categories, of course. How about some other highly-ranked (and other) players who have been playing pretty well this season?

#12 Ya Ni Tseng: 3.80, 70.44, 64.0%
#4 Suzann Pettersen: 3.81, 70.69, 61.5%
n.r. Song-Hee Kim: 3.72, 71.22, 61.1%
#17 Lindsey Wright: 3.58, 70.69, 57.7%
#14 Hee-Won Han: 3.59, 70.93, 58.6%
#3 Paula Creamer: 3.63, 70.63, 53.3%
#26 Na Yeon Choi: 3.70, 71.30, 50.0%
#29 Karen Stupples: 3.54, 71.31, 53.8%
#7 Karrie Webb: 2.78, 71.11, 50.0%
#11 Angela Stanford: 3.47, 71.25, 46.9%
#5 Jeong Jang: 3.23, 71.32, 45.2%
#9 Seon Hwa Lee: 2.84, 71.55, 48.4%
#8 Cristie Kerr: 3.45, 71.66, 41.4%
n.r. Sun Young Yoo: 3.50, 72.08, 42.3%
#18 Maria Hjorth: 3.36, 72.04, 46.4%
#28 Inbee Park: 3.31, 71.81, 37.5%
#6 Jee Young Lee: 3.21, 72.06, 33.3%

So, taking into account momentum and past performances, here's who I think will break from the field at Kingsmill.

1. Ochoa
2. Creamer
3. Sorenstam
4. Pettersen
5. Tseng Ya Ni
6. Han Hee-Won
7. Lee Jee Young
8. Choi Na Yeon (she made it through Monday qualifying!)
9. Jang Jeong
10. Wright
11. Lee Seon Hwa
12. Kim Song-Hee

Alts: Kerr, Stanford, Webb