I've been collecting links to bloggers' previews of the 2010 LPGA season ever since the 2009 season ended.
Here's an '09-Q-School-centric look from Dave Andrews. He's quite a bit higher on Amanda Blumenherst's prospects in her rookie season than I am. She'll have to do a lot better than Stacy Lewis did in hers to have a chance at what he projects.
Here's Andrews again, this time with a focus on the tour's prospects in 2010.
Here are those joining me (thus far) in the 2010 LPGA Prognostication Derby: Hound Dog, rjay, Verdant Garden.... There's still a little time left to join in!
Here are Jamie RS's wishes for the LPGA in 2010, Hound Dog's predictions, and Matt Cooper's questions.
Here's Stephanie Wei's latest entry in her "Know Your Asians" series, this one focusing on Hee Young Park--and it includes a video interview!
Here's Jeff Skinner's brief overview of the LPGA's youth movement and interview with Vicky Hurst.
Here's Brent Kelley's preview, focusing on the wide-open Player of the Year race. He thinks it's going to come down to Ji-Yai Shin and Michelle Wie and he has a poll where you can pick your POY.
Oh, and tune in to Waggle Room every week for a new LPGA video interview.
So how do the professional golf writers stack up against the bloggers when it comes to previewing the LPGA's 2010 season?
Here's Beth Ann Baldry with a short profile of '09 Futures Tour money-list leader Mina Harigae.
Here's Jim McCabe on how Alison Walshe plans to handle her dual LPGA-LET status.
Here's Larry Dorman with a few words on the LPGA's prospects for 2010, which Bill Jempty finds a tad optimistic (if by "tad" you mean "Dorman is making Pollyanna sound like Chicken Little"!).
Here's Jason Sobel's Weekly 18--go to the last hole for his responses to questions from Dave Andrews and me on the LPGA's 2010.
Here's Baldry again on Amanda Blumenherst's sponsor exemptions, Natalie Gulbis's commitments to every 2010 LPGA event, and Suzann Pettersen's off-season preparations.
Here are Randall Mell and Ron Sirak with good profiles of new Commissioner Mike Whan and his approach to rebuilding the LPGA. And here's Sobel again, this time with a great interview with Whan. Much more interesting than Larry Bohannan's overview.
Matty G interviews Paula Creamer and gets more out of her than Mike Walker.
Brad Ziemer's following Samantha Richdale's 3-week tour of Taiwan in preparation for her rookie season on the LPGA. Since she's shut out of the early Asian swing, her 1st event won't be until late March when the tour returns to the States.
Steve DiMeglio uses the top players' outlooks on the LPGA's 2010 as the foundation for his own good points about the effects of the schedule.
Finally, an anonymous AP writer reports on Momoko Ueda's pledge to win on the LPGA in 2010.
So what conclusions would you draw from this unscientific and noncomprehensive juxtapositioning of posts and articles that happened to catch my eye?
The one thing that leaps out at me is that no major golf magazines have put out anything on the web that resembles a LPGA preview issue. I understand that Mike Whan is a breath of fresh air and I appreciate the looks at individual players, but where are the usual attempts to identify the key players and rivalries as we head into a new season?
[Update 1 (1:44 pm): Regular reader courtgolf will be happy to know (if he doesn't already!) that Stephanie Wei just interviewed rookie Jean Reynolds!]
[Update 2 (2/17/10, 6:08 am): Here's another one from the bloggers, this time a solid preview from TeeOff Post.]
[Update 3 (6:18 am): Here's Ryan Ballengee's video interview with Wendy Ward:
Cool beans!]
[Update 4 (11:14 am): Here's Larry Dorman's interview with Mike Whan.]
[Update 5 (8:34 pm): Here's Bill Jempty's season preview and projected top 30.]
[Update 6 (10:25 pm): Here's the Armchair Golfer's look at the start of the LPGA season.]
[Update 7 (10:39 pm): Golfweek just got around to posting on the web this January 1st feature on Michelle Wie by Beth Ann Baldry.]
[Update 8 (10:41 pm): Here's Baldry again with notes from Thailand on the 2010 season.]
[Update 9 (10:47 pm): Here's Randall Mell on the race to chase down Lorena Ochoa that's begun today.]
[Update 10 (10:51 pm): Gary Van Sickle focuses on Ochoa vs. Shin.]
[Update 11 (10:55 pm): Just as a side note, Van Sickle has been recycling various LPGA-related stories at the Press Tent blog; I'll give the advantage to Baldry's reports from Thailand at the Tour Blog. So far, Golf Channel's Shag Bag hasn't really tried to enter the competition, nor has Local Knowledge. Let's see how the pros' blogging stacks up against us amateurs this season.]
[Update 12 (11:01 pm): Steve Elling focuses on Lorena Ochoa.]
[Update 13 (2/18/10, 7:12 am): Here's Jamie's preseason top 30 picks at Snap Hook Herald--I'm going to judge that he just got them in under the wire! Now to wait and see when Ron Sirak's top 30 goes onto the web....]
[Update 14 (11:25 am): Ah, Bill Jempty posted Sirak's top 30 over at Hound Dog's place. There are now 7 of us in the derby this season, unless Mulligan Stu wants to come out of retirement with a late entry!]
[Update 15 (5:02 pm): Jay Busbee offers his own overview of the LPGA's outlook in 2010 and kindly links to this post.]
[Update 16 (2/21/10, 12:20 pm): Here's Sirak's top 30, in his own words.]
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Monday, February 15, 2010
Best 2009 in Women's Golf: Ji-Yai Shin
So who among my 15 nominees for the Best 2009 in Women's Golf award were my finalists? It came down to the top players from the KLPGA (Hee Kyung Seo), JLPGA (Sakura Yokomine), and LPGA (Lorena Ochoa and Ji-Yai Shin). Because Seo's and Yokomine's wins and majors came against fields that were neither as strong nor as deep as can be found week in and week out on the LPGA, it came down in the end to Ochoa and Shin.
So why did I pick the latter for this coveted Mostly Harmless award, when I put the former #1 in my year-end Best of the LPGA ranking? Bottom line for me: Shin's win on the 2nd-strongest tour in the world of women's golf, which made her the #5-ranked player in my Best Off the LPGA ranking of the JLPGA's finest. At that event, Shin beat Akiko Fukushima and Yuko Mitsuka in a playoff, beat Shinobu Moromizato, Chie Arimura, and Ji-Hee Lee by 2, and outpaced Yokomine, Mi-Jeong Jeon, Miho Koga, Bo-Bae Song, and Stacy Lewis, all of whom are world-class golfers and many of whom made my list of nominees for this award.
Not only did Shin out-win and out-earn Ochoa in 2009, she did it while travelling around the world and adjusting to life on the LPGA and in the United States. For more on how impressive Shin's 2009 was, check out Happy Fan's reasoning for giving her a Seoulie for Player of the Year over at the Seoul Sisters blog. He makes the point that for all the talk in the American golf media about what an off-year Ochoa had last season, Shin, too, struggled to meet her own standards and expectations. So this season should be seen as a "comeback year" for the top 2 female golfers of 2009. As Tim Maitland has shown, Shin's hardly content to rest on her laurels.
It'll be interesting to see if Shin and Ochoa can continue to outpace their lead chase pack--consisting of at least Suzann Pettersen, Cristie Kerr, Paula Creamer, Ai Miyazato, Na Yeon Choi, In-Kyung Kim, Angela Stanford, Ya Ni Tseng, Anna Nordqvist, and Michelle Wie from the LPGA, as well as the top players from the JLPGA, KLPGA, and LET in 2009--who are all breathing down their necks. It's going to be a challenge for anyone on the LPGA to win more than once in 2010, so if Yokomine, Seo, and company win a lot on their home tours and play better when they compete off of them, they might well be able to outshine even the top LPGAers this season. We'll see!
So why did I pick the latter for this coveted Mostly Harmless award, when I put the former #1 in my year-end Best of the LPGA ranking? Bottom line for me: Shin's win on the 2nd-strongest tour in the world of women's golf, which made her the #5-ranked player in my Best Off the LPGA ranking of the JLPGA's finest. At that event, Shin beat Akiko Fukushima and Yuko Mitsuka in a playoff, beat Shinobu Moromizato, Chie Arimura, and Ji-Hee Lee by 2, and outpaced Yokomine, Mi-Jeong Jeon, Miho Koga, Bo-Bae Song, and Stacy Lewis, all of whom are world-class golfers and many of whom made my list of nominees for this award.
Not only did Shin out-win and out-earn Ochoa in 2009, she did it while travelling around the world and adjusting to life on the LPGA and in the United States. For more on how impressive Shin's 2009 was, check out Happy Fan's reasoning for giving her a Seoulie for Player of the Year over at the Seoul Sisters blog. He makes the point that for all the talk in the American golf media about what an off-year Ochoa had last season, Shin, too, struggled to meet her own standards and expectations. So this season should be seen as a "comeback year" for the top 2 female golfers of 2009. As Tim Maitland has shown, Shin's hardly content to rest on her laurels.
It'll be interesting to see if Shin and Ochoa can continue to outpace their lead chase pack--consisting of at least Suzann Pettersen, Cristie Kerr, Paula Creamer, Ai Miyazato, Na Yeon Choi, In-Kyung Kim, Angela Stanford, Ya Ni Tseng, Anna Nordqvist, and Michelle Wie from the LPGA, as well as the top players from the JLPGA, KLPGA, and LET in 2009--who are all breathing down their necks. It's going to be a challenge for anyone on the LPGA to win more than once in 2010, so if Yokomine, Seo, and company win a lot on their home tours and play better when they compete off of them, they might well be able to outshine even the top LPGAers this season. We'll see!
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Ai Miyazato's Prospects in 2010
The last few months, I've been telling anyone and everyone who will stick around here for longer than a paragraph that Ai Miyazato is poised to have a breakout season in 2010. I'm talking Player of the Year quality here: multiple wins, including a major, in the running for the money-list title and Vare Trophy, near the top in most statistical categories.
Why am I so high on Miyazato's chances this coming season? Let's review what I said last January about her prospects for 2009 to see why I'm so confident about her 2010. Here's a good place to start:
Well, last season, her comparable numbers were 254.3, 75.7%, 71.6%, 3.90, and 1.76--I'd say she returned to her norms in the 2004-2006 stretch when she was one of the best female golfers in the world. Some might argue that after posting the lowest scoring average of her career (70.33) last season, she's due to come back to earth this season. But what makes me think she still has room for improvement is how much worse most of last season's key JLPGA stats were--63.8% GIR rate, 3.26 birdies per round rate, 1.76 PPGIR rate--yet she still managed a 70.70 scoring average. Compare that to her best years on the JLPGA:
Her GIR rate in Japan improved from 69.3% in 2004 to 69.9% in 2005 but fell to 66.4% in 2006. What she learned from those lost half-seasons in 2007 and 2008 was how to hold it together with her short game, how to scramble, and how to be mentally tough when things weren't going her way. That's why her GIR rate, birdie rate, and scoring average improved together on the LPGA in 2009 and part of why I think she'll surpass her career peaks in those areas (71.9%, 3.90, 70.33) in 2010. But only part. Ultimately, my argument is not statistical.
The 1st, and less important, part has to do with how she can put together her worldwide schedule this coming season. I think it would be fair to say that jet lag and the other rigors of international travel help account for her relatively worse ballstriking during her returns to her home tour since joining the LPGA in 2006. But this season, Miyazato can avoid quick jaunts to Japan and instead play for several weeks at a time on the JLPGA on more than one occasion, yet still return to the States with plenty of time to spare. Check out this potential plan:
FEBRUARY
18-21: Honda PTT LPGA Thailand (LPGA)
25-28: HSBC Women's Champions (LPGA)
MARCH
5-7: Daikin Orchid Ladies Open (JLPGA)
12-14: Yokohama Tire PRGR Ladies Cup (JLPGA)
[skip JLPGA event to rest for run-up to 1st LPGA major]
25-28: Kia Classic Presented by J Golf (LPGA)
APRIL
1-4: Kraft Nabisco Championship (LPGA major)
[skip JLPGA event to rest for run-up to 1st JLPGA major]
16-18: Nishijin Ladies Classic (JLPGA)
23-25: Fujisankei Ladies Classic (JLPGA)
30-5/2: Cyber Agent Ladies Cup (JLPGA) [instead of Tres Marias on LPGA]
MAY
6-9: Salonpas Cup (JLPGA major)
13-16: Bell Micro LPGA Classic (LPGA)
20-23: Sybase Match Play Championship (LPGA)
[skip 2 JLPGA events to minimize international travel and allow for rest, tune-ups, and preparation for the LPGA's major season]
JUNE
10-13: LPGA State Farm Classic (LPGA)
18-20: ShopRite LPGA Classic (LPGA)
24-27: LPGA Championship Presented by Wegmans (LPGA major)
JULY
1-4: Jamie Farr Owens Corning Classic (LPGA)
8-11: U.S. Women's Open (LPGA major)
[skip JLPGA event for run-up to the LPGA's European swing and her debut as an LET rookie]
22-25: Evian Masters (LPGA/LET)
29-8/1: Women's British Open (LPGA/LET major)
AUGUST
6-8: Ladies Irish Open (LET)
[skip last LET event on the British Isles to prepare for return to the LPGA]
20-22: Safeway Classic (LPGA)
26-29: Canadian Women's Open (LPGA)
SEPTEMBER
3-5: Golf5 Ladies (JLPGA)
9-12: Konica Minolta Cup (JLPGA major) [instead of NW Arkansas on the LPGA]
[skip JLPGA event to recover from tough travel schedule the past few weeks and get ready for the JLPGA's biggest major]
24-26: Miyagi TV Cup Dunlop Ladies Open (JLPGA)
30-10/3: Japan Women's Open (JLPGA major) [instead of Acapulco LPGA Classic]
OCTOBER
[skip Navistar LPGA Classic for last off-week for the rest of the season]
14-17: CVS LPGA Challenge (LPGA)
22-24: expected Malaysia event (LPGA)
29-31: LPGA Hana Bank Championship (LPGA)
NOVEMBER
5-7: Mizuno Classic (LPGA/JLPGA)
11-14: Lorena Ochoa Invitational (LPGA)
18-21: LPGA Tour Championship (LPGA)
25-28: Ricoh Cup (JLPGA major)
That would give Miyazato 12 JLPGA starts, which may sound like a lot but actually includes only 3 difficult transitions from or to the LPGA, one in early May, one in early September, and the last in late November, so that she could play all 4 JLPGA majors this season. It would involve choosing the JLPGA over the LPGA only 4 times (including 2 majors and 1 prep week and 1 rest week around the others), which would still give her 21 LPGA starts and plenty of r'n'r before most every one of them. Even her 3 LET starts in her rookie season on that tour (thanks to her Evian Masters win last season) would only bring her total number of tournaments in 2010 to 31, which is a pretty normal load for elite Japanese players. And as with her JLPGA starts, those LET ones would allow her to make new fans, maximize her income, keep her game sharp, and build momentum and confidence for her LPGA campaign.
Which brings me to the 2nd, and more important, reason I see Miyazato having a POY-quality season in 2010. Although her game was world-class in 2009, she had trouble closing the deal--and not just at the obvious places, like when Catriona Matthew outplayed her at the Women's British Open, Na Yeon Choi beat her at the Samsung, or Nikki Campbell made a miracle playoff putt to deny her her 2nd JLPGA win. As I've mentioned once or twice before, she played well enough to win a total of 13 times last season on the LPGA and JLPGA, but only came away with 1 win on each tour. That's a far cry from when she was winning in bunches on the JLPGA in 2004 through 2006. Sure, the competition on the LPGA is much tougher, and even in her best seasons she never unseated the JLPGA's dominant player of that era, Yuri Fudoh, but you have to figure that she's going to learn from both those earlier experiences and the more recent ones of being back in contention regularly. Given how solid every aspect of her game is heading into 2010, there's no reason to believe she won't give herself even more chances to win this coming season. I believe she's ready to take advantage of those opportunities. She's played a lot with Lorena Ochoa over the course of her LPGA career and was watching her and Ji-Yai Shin quite carefully last season, particularly during last season's stretch run. Having written in her blog last November about how impressively they carry themselves and handle every aspect of their games and fame, she's spent the last several months adjusting her mindset and training her body. She turns 25 this June 19 and has bought a home in Phoenix, so she has the ideal combination of youth and maturity to start reaching her goals.
Finally, look where Miyazato's top competition stands coming into this season. Let's start with Lorena, who recently got married, moved to Mexico City, and became the mother of 3 (ages 7 to 14). I don't think for a second that we're going to see any letdown on the course from her. From the sounds of her pre-season press conference, she's been training as hard as ever this off-season and will put the down time on the LPGA schedule to good use. The only event she's definitely skipping is the State Farm, although she might sit out the NW Arkansas tournament, as well. So she'll be fit, rested, and ready to rumble. The fact that she talked about focusing on her short game means that she's got to be feeling pretty confident about her driver again. So she'll be even tougher to unseat than Yuri Fudoh was. Why, then, do I think Miyazato will do it this year? 1st, nothing against training and practice, but there's nothing like stretches of competition to really hone your game and prepare your mind for crunch time. With her memberships on the LPGA, JLPGA, and LET, Miyazato will be accustomed to playing 3-to-5-week runs all year, not just during the LPGA's summer stretch. 2nd, I believe the equipment changes that all the players will be dealing with this season thanks to the new grooves rules will affect the bombers in the women's game much more than everyone else. They'll be hitting irons out of the rough more often and will have to re-learn how to deal with flyer lies (if they ever learned in the 1st place). They'll be adjusting to different trajectories and spin rates with their wedges, which they'll be using more often than the shorter hitters. And finally, Lorena will have the added pressure of knowing that her career clock is ticking. She'll only be turning 29 this November 15, but from the way she's been talking she's been seriously considering whether to have kids of her own before she meets the last requirement for entry into the LPGA Hall of Fame during her 10th season on tour in 2012. Even if she decides to wait, that's only 3 seasons left to realistically expect to remain the most dominant player on the LPGA. And she's already been near or at that level for 7 years. She's already outlasted Se Ri Pak, who could keep it up only for 6 seasons, but even Karrie Webb could maintain that kind of pace for only 9 straight seasons. If any cracks are going to appear in Ochoa's armor before she has kids, they're going to show up in the near future. She knows that as well as anyone, which puts additional self-imposed pressure on her on top of the pressure she's facing from a lead chase pack that won't let up and a media that wants to see her winning majors.
So we know that Lorena's going to have a lot to deal with and overcome this season. What about Ji-Yai Shin? Thanks to Tim Maitland, we know that she's in boot camp in Australia, trying to get into the best shape of her life so that she can play closer to her peak levels over the course of the season and particularly at its end. But the quest to get leaner, stronger, and longer has pitfalls of its own, as Christina Kim and Morgan Pressel (among many others) can attest. Changing your body means changing your swing, but when your bread and butter is precision play, that can take its toll. I wouldn't put it past Shin to come out hot this season, but I think it's more realistic to expect a little bit of an adjustment period in the late winter and early spring. In a sense, Shin is trying to catch up to where Miyazato already is with her driver--completing the transition from precision player to straight shooter. Moreover, she's been talking about cutting back on her international schedule so she has more left at the end of the LPGA season, but I think she's foregoing a big competitive advantage if she actually were to do so.
Similarly, Paula Creamer is getting reacquainted with her increasingly healthy body and trying to regain her distance while maintaining her accuracy and improving her putting in 2010. Like Shin, I think she's 1 year away from a real breakout season. And if Miyazato can improve her iron play this season, she'll be a step ahead of both of them from the start, with a lot more momentum from the 2nd half of 2009 than they have. True, she's not as explosive as bombers like Michelle Wie or Ya Ni Tseng, but she's much more consistent week in and week out and won't playing from out of the rough nearly as often. It remains to be seen whether youngsters like Na Yeon Choi and In-Kyung Kim, whose games are very similar to Miyazato's, can sustain their great play from 2009 and put together even better 2010s, or whether Song-Hee Kim can break through into the winner's circle at all next season, much less more than once. Now, if Suzann Pettersen and Angela Stanford can stay healthy in 2010, they'll pose significant challenges, as will Cristie Kerr, who could prove to be the toughest of the bunch if she ever goes beyond talking about "zen golf" and actually putting it into practice when she's in contention. But as you can see from my top 30 predictions, I'm confident that this is Miyazato's year, not theirs. What that means is 3-6 wins on the LPGA and 2-5 on the JLPGA, including at least 1 major on each tour. If my projected top 5 snap up 12-18 wins in 2010, as I expect, then it's going to be very difficult for anyone in my next 5 to win more than twice, or for anyone in the following 5 to win more than once.
Bottom line: the time is right for Ai Miyazato to start reeling in Ayako Okamoto. If she's going to go down in history as the best golfer from Japan, she's going to have to do something very special over the course of this decade, starting next week. Should be fun to follow!
[Update 1 (3/12/10, 9:24 am): Well, well, well! 2 for 2 on the LPGA and a T7 on the JLPGA is an even better start than even I hoped for. Ai-sama's taking this week off on the JLPGA, which is probably a good idea, as it gives her 2 weeks to rest and prepare for the Kia Classic and Kraft Nabisco Championship. I wouldn't be surprised if she's already back in the States. In other scheduling news, Ai-sama has committed to the Bell Micro in the 2nd week of May, so it'll be interesting to see how many JLPGA events she plays in the run-up to their 1st major, the Salonpas Cup, in the 1st week of May--if any.]
Why am I so high on Miyazato's chances this coming season? Let's review what I said last January about her prospects for 2009 to see why I'm so confident about her 2010. Here's a good place to start:
In 2006, when she was adjusting to life on the LPGA (and winning twice in 7 events on the JLPGA) she averaged 253 yards off the tee, hit over 75% of her fairways and 69% of her greens in regulation, and averaged 3.71 birdies per round and 1.78 putts per green in regulation....
I don't see any reason for her not to surpass her rookie season in the next few years. If she can get the driver working for her again like it was before her injury, look for that to happen sooner than later.
Well, last season, her comparable numbers were 254.3, 75.7%, 71.6%, 3.90, and 1.76--I'd say she returned to her norms in the 2004-2006 stretch when she was one of the best female golfers in the world. Some might argue that after posting the lowest scoring average of her career (70.33) last season, she's due to come back to earth this season. But what makes me think she still has room for improvement is how much worse most of last season's key JLPGA stats were--63.8% GIR rate, 3.26 birdies per round rate, 1.76 PPGIR rate--yet she still managed a 70.70 scoring average. Compare that to her best years on the JLPGA:
In 2005, she averaged 3.70 birdies per round (tied for the best on the JLPGA), which is very close to her 2006 LPGA average, and had the lowest scoring average of her career, 70.59 (over a half-stroke better than her 2006 LPGA average of 71.22, and even better than her 2004 JLPGA average, 70.85). In both 2004 and 2005, she averaged under 1.77 putts per green in regulation, #1 or #2 on the JLPGA, and in only 7 events in 2006, had an incandescent 1.728 PPGIR rate but "only" a 70.63 scoring average.
Her GIR rate in Japan improved from 69.3% in 2004 to 69.9% in 2005 but fell to 66.4% in 2006. What she learned from those lost half-seasons in 2007 and 2008 was how to hold it together with her short game, how to scramble, and how to be mentally tough when things weren't going her way. That's why her GIR rate, birdie rate, and scoring average improved together on the LPGA in 2009 and part of why I think she'll surpass her career peaks in those areas (71.9%, 3.90, 70.33) in 2010. But only part. Ultimately, my argument is not statistical.
The 1st, and less important, part has to do with how she can put together her worldwide schedule this coming season. I think it would be fair to say that jet lag and the other rigors of international travel help account for her relatively worse ballstriking during her returns to her home tour since joining the LPGA in 2006. But this season, Miyazato can avoid quick jaunts to Japan and instead play for several weeks at a time on the JLPGA on more than one occasion, yet still return to the States with plenty of time to spare. Check out this potential plan:
FEBRUARY
18-21: Honda PTT LPGA Thailand (LPGA)
25-28: HSBC Women's Champions (LPGA)
MARCH
5-7: Daikin Orchid Ladies Open (JLPGA)
12-14: Yokohama Tire PRGR Ladies Cup (JLPGA)
[skip JLPGA event to rest for run-up to 1st LPGA major]
25-28: Kia Classic Presented by J Golf (LPGA)
APRIL
1-4: Kraft Nabisco Championship (LPGA major)
[skip JLPGA event to rest for run-up to 1st JLPGA major]
16-18: Nishijin Ladies Classic (JLPGA)
23-25: Fujisankei Ladies Classic (JLPGA)
30-5/2: Cyber Agent Ladies Cup (JLPGA) [instead of Tres Marias on LPGA]
MAY
6-9: Salonpas Cup (JLPGA major)
13-16: Bell Micro LPGA Classic (LPGA)
20-23: Sybase Match Play Championship (LPGA)
[skip 2 JLPGA events to minimize international travel and allow for rest, tune-ups, and preparation for the LPGA's major season]
JUNE
10-13: LPGA State Farm Classic (LPGA)
18-20: ShopRite LPGA Classic (LPGA)
24-27: LPGA Championship Presented by Wegmans (LPGA major)
JULY
1-4: Jamie Farr Owens Corning Classic (LPGA)
8-11: U.S. Women's Open (LPGA major)
[skip JLPGA event for run-up to the LPGA's European swing and her debut as an LET rookie]
22-25: Evian Masters (LPGA/LET)
29-8/1: Women's British Open (LPGA/LET major)
AUGUST
6-8: Ladies Irish Open (LET)
[skip last LET event on the British Isles to prepare for return to the LPGA]
20-22: Safeway Classic (LPGA)
26-29: Canadian Women's Open (LPGA)
SEPTEMBER
3-5: Golf5 Ladies (JLPGA)
9-12: Konica Minolta Cup (JLPGA major) [instead of NW Arkansas on the LPGA]
[skip JLPGA event to recover from tough travel schedule the past few weeks and get ready for the JLPGA's biggest major]
24-26: Miyagi TV Cup Dunlop Ladies Open (JLPGA)
30-10/3: Japan Women's Open (JLPGA major) [instead of Acapulco LPGA Classic]
OCTOBER
[skip Navistar LPGA Classic for last off-week for the rest of the season]
14-17: CVS LPGA Challenge (LPGA)
22-24: expected Malaysia event (LPGA)
29-31: LPGA Hana Bank Championship (LPGA)
NOVEMBER
5-7: Mizuno Classic (LPGA/JLPGA)
11-14: Lorena Ochoa Invitational (LPGA)
18-21: LPGA Tour Championship (LPGA)
25-28: Ricoh Cup (JLPGA major)
That would give Miyazato 12 JLPGA starts, which may sound like a lot but actually includes only 3 difficult transitions from or to the LPGA, one in early May, one in early September, and the last in late November, so that she could play all 4 JLPGA majors this season. It would involve choosing the JLPGA over the LPGA only 4 times (including 2 majors and 1 prep week and 1 rest week around the others), which would still give her 21 LPGA starts and plenty of r'n'r before most every one of them. Even her 3 LET starts in her rookie season on that tour (thanks to her Evian Masters win last season) would only bring her total number of tournaments in 2010 to 31, which is a pretty normal load for elite Japanese players. And as with her JLPGA starts, those LET ones would allow her to make new fans, maximize her income, keep her game sharp, and build momentum and confidence for her LPGA campaign.
Which brings me to the 2nd, and more important, reason I see Miyazato having a POY-quality season in 2010. Although her game was world-class in 2009, she had trouble closing the deal--and not just at the obvious places, like when Catriona Matthew outplayed her at the Women's British Open, Na Yeon Choi beat her at the Samsung, or Nikki Campbell made a miracle playoff putt to deny her her 2nd JLPGA win. As I've mentioned once or twice before, she played well enough to win a total of 13 times last season on the LPGA and JLPGA, but only came away with 1 win on each tour. That's a far cry from when she was winning in bunches on the JLPGA in 2004 through 2006. Sure, the competition on the LPGA is much tougher, and even in her best seasons she never unseated the JLPGA's dominant player of that era, Yuri Fudoh, but you have to figure that she's going to learn from both those earlier experiences and the more recent ones of being back in contention regularly. Given how solid every aspect of her game is heading into 2010, there's no reason to believe she won't give herself even more chances to win this coming season. I believe she's ready to take advantage of those opportunities. She's played a lot with Lorena Ochoa over the course of her LPGA career and was watching her and Ji-Yai Shin quite carefully last season, particularly during last season's stretch run. Having written in her blog last November about how impressively they carry themselves and handle every aspect of their games and fame, she's spent the last several months adjusting her mindset and training her body. She turns 25 this June 19 and has bought a home in Phoenix, so she has the ideal combination of youth and maturity to start reaching her goals.
Finally, look where Miyazato's top competition stands coming into this season. Let's start with Lorena, who recently got married, moved to Mexico City, and became the mother of 3 (ages 7 to 14). I don't think for a second that we're going to see any letdown on the course from her. From the sounds of her pre-season press conference, she's been training as hard as ever this off-season and will put the down time on the LPGA schedule to good use. The only event she's definitely skipping is the State Farm, although she might sit out the NW Arkansas tournament, as well. So she'll be fit, rested, and ready to rumble. The fact that she talked about focusing on her short game means that she's got to be feeling pretty confident about her driver again. So she'll be even tougher to unseat than Yuri Fudoh was. Why, then, do I think Miyazato will do it this year? 1st, nothing against training and practice, but there's nothing like stretches of competition to really hone your game and prepare your mind for crunch time. With her memberships on the LPGA, JLPGA, and LET, Miyazato will be accustomed to playing 3-to-5-week runs all year, not just during the LPGA's summer stretch. 2nd, I believe the equipment changes that all the players will be dealing with this season thanks to the new grooves rules will affect the bombers in the women's game much more than everyone else. They'll be hitting irons out of the rough more often and will have to re-learn how to deal with flyer lies (if they ever learned in the 1st place). They'll be adjusting to different trajectories and spin rates with their wedges, which they'll be using more often than the shorter hitters. And finally, Lorena will have the added pressure of knowing that her career clock is ticking. She'll only be turning 29 this November 15, but from the way she's been talking she's been seriously considering whether to have kids of her own before she meets the last requirement for entry into the LPGA Hall of Fame during her 10th season on tour in 2012. Even if she decides to wait, that's only 3 seasons left to realistically expect to remain the most dominant player on the LPGA. And she's already been near or at that level for 7 years. She's already outlasted Se Ri Pak, who could keep it up only for 6 seasons, but even Karrie Webb could maintain that kind of pace for only 9 straight seasons. If any cracks are going to appear in Ochoa's armor before she has kids, they're going to show up in the near future. She knows that as well as anyone, which puts additional self-imposed pressure on her on top of the pressure she's facing from a lead chase pack that won't let up and a media that wants to see her winning majors.
So we know that Lorena's going to have a lot to deal with and overcome this season. What about Ji-Yai Shin? Thanks to Tim Maitland, we know that she's in boot camp in Australia, trying to get into the best shape of her life so that she can play closer to her peak levels over the course of the season and particularly at its end. But the quest to get leaner, stronger, and longer has pitfalls of its own, as Christina Kim and Morgan Pressel (among many others) can attest. Changing your body means changing your swing, but when your bread and butter is precision play, that can take its toll. I wouldn't put it past Shin to come out hot this season, but I think it's more realistic to expect a little bit of an adjustment period in the late winter and early spring. In a sense, Shin is trying to catch up to where Miyazato already is with her driver--completing the transition from precision player to straight shooter. Moreover, she's been talking about cutting back on her international schedule so she has more left at the end of the LPGA season, but I think she's foregoing a big competitive advantage if she actually were to do so.
Similarly, Paula Creamer is getting reacquainted with her increasingly healthy body and trying to regain her distance while maintaining her accuracy and improving her putting in 2010. Like Shin, I think she's 1 year away from a real breakout season. And if Miyazato can improve her iron play this season, she'll be a step ahead of both of them from the start, with a lot more momentum from the 2nd half of 2009 than they have. True, she's not as explosive as bombers like Michelle Wie or Ya Ni Tseng, but she's much more consistent week in and week out and won't playing from out of the rough nearly as often. It remains to be seen whether youngsters like Na Yeon Choi and In-Kyung Kim, whose games are very similar to Miyazato's, can sustain their great play from 2009 and put together even better 2010s, or whether Song-Hee Kim can break through into the winner's circle at all next season, much less more than once. Now, if Suzann Pettersen and Angela Stanford can stay healthy in 2010, they'll pose significant challenges, as will Cristie Kerr, who could prove to be the toughest of the bunch if she ever goes beyond talking about "zen golf" and actually putting it into practice when she's in contention. But as you can see from my top 30 predictions, I'm confident that this is Miyazato's year, not theirs. What that means is 3-6 wins on the LPGA and 2-5 on the JLPGA, including at least 1 major on each tour. If my projected top 5 snap up 12-18 wins in 2010, as I expect, then it's going to be very difficult for anyone in my next 5 to win more than twice, or for anyone in the following 5 to win more than once.
Bottom line: the time is right for Ai Miyazato to start reeling in Ayako Okamoto. If she's going to go down in history as the best golfer from Japan, she's going to have to do something very special over the course of this decade, starting next week. Should be fun to follow!
[Update 1 (3/12/10, 9:24 am): Well, well, well! 2 for 2 on the LPGA and a T7 on the JLPGA is an even better start than even I hoped for. Ai-sama's taking this week off on the JLPGA, which is probably a good idea, as it gives her 2 weeks to rest and prepare for the Kia Classic and Kraft Nabisco Championship. I wouldn't be surprised if she's already back in the States. In other scheduling news, Ai-sama has committed to the Bell Micro in the 2nd week of May, so it'll be interesting to see how many JLPGA events she plays in the run-up to their 1st major, the Salonpas Cup, in the 1st week of May--if any.]
Saturday, February 13, 2010
LPGA Break Points: 2000-2009
Last January I looked at the season-by-season winnings of the #1, #2, #5, #10, #20, #30, #50, #80, #100, and #125 players on the LPGA from 2000 to 2008. Why these positions on the money list? The top 50 on the money list typically get into the late-season Asian swing; the top 80 in one season get Category 1 status the following season; #100 is the cut-off for Category 11 status; and #125 is the cut-off for Category 15 status. While it used to be the top 90 who got fully exempt status (roughly equivalent to Category 1 in the current membership system), I thought it would be interesting to track the top 80 trends here--plus it would help us look ahead and try to figure out where the upcoming season's "cut line" will fall. Based on the average takings from those years, I predicted:
As it turned out, the total purse for 2009 was $47.6M, so my actual predictions should have been $476K for a top 30, $238K for a top 50, and $119K for a top 80. Here's how they actually turned out:
1. Ji-Yai Shin $1.81M
2. Cristie Kerr $1.52M
5. Suzann Pettersen $1.37M
10. Angela Stanford $1.08M
20. Hee Young Park $666.3K
30. Se Ri Pak $447.7K (.941% of the total purse for the season)
50. Inbee Park $271.3K (.570%)
80. Irene Cho $118.3K (.249%)
100. Reilley Rankin $79.1K (.166%)
125. Johanna Mundy $34.7K
What I was originally looking for when compiling the decade's stats was evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA has been getting deeper. Following a comment from Hound Dog on an earlier version of that post, I also got curious as to how the increasing number of limited-field events affects gaps between the #50, #80, and #100 players.
So let's review the takings over the course of the decade:
#30 takings: .767% (2000), .825% (2001), .881% (2002), .984% (2003), .978% (2004), 1.002% (2005), .757% (2006), .857% (2007), 1.045% (2008), .941% (2009); 2000-2009 average: .904%; 2000-2004 average: .887%; 2005-2009 average: .920%
#50 takings: .472% (2000), .515% (2001), .481% (2002), .521% (2003), .555% (2004), .546% (2005), .529% (2006), .484% (2007), .622 (2008), .570% (2009); 2000-2009 average: .530%; 2000-2004 average: .509%; 2005-2009 average: .550%
#80 takings: .275% (2000), .252% (2001), .263% (2002), .214% (2003), .288% (2004), .227% (2005), .224% (2006), .214% (2007), .228 (2008), .249 (2009); 2000-2009 average: .243%; 2000-2004 average: .258%; 2005-2009 average: .228%
#100 takings: .203% (2000), .148% (2001), .158% (2002), .159% (2003), .183% (2004), .144% (2005), .144% (2006), .135% (2007), .168% (2008), .166% (2009); 2000-2009 average: .161%; 2000-2004 average: .170%; 2005-2009 average: .151%
The gap between the #30 and #50 player on tour had been growing steadily between 2000 and 2003, from .295 to .310 to .400 to .463, and only dropped slightly in 2004 to .423; from 2005 to 2006, however, the gap declined sharply from .456 to .228, and only went back up to .373 and .423 in 2007 and 2008 before falling again to .371 in 2009. That averages out to a .378 gap in the 1st half of the decade and a .370 gap in the 2nd half. So while a lot depends on the size of the gap this coming season before we can draw any definite conclusions, the data suggests that with most of the top 50 players getting into most of the limited-field events, there hasn't been a sharper separation between the #30 and #50 players over the course of the decade; if anything, the #50 players have been making up a little ground on the #30 players over the second half of the decade.
Similarly, the gap between the #30 and #80 players grew steadily from 2000 to 2003 (from .492 to .573 to .618 to .770) and dropped slightly in 2004 (to .690); where the data departs from the #30-#50 gap, however, is from 2005-2009 (moving from .775 to .533 to .643 to .817 to .692): the average gap in the 1st half of the decade was .629, while in the 2nd half of the decade it grew to .692. 2010 will have to buck this trend in a serious way to make a dent in that increasing separation between the #30 and #80 players. Meanwhile, the gap between the #50 and #80 players is widening even further, from .251 in the 1st half of the decade to .322 in the 2nd. That's a 22% increase in the gap between the #50 and #80 players compared to a 9% increase in the gap between the #30 and #80 players--pretty serious.
It seems clear, then, that the increase in limited-field events in the 2nd half of this decade is benefitting the top 50 players over the next 30 players on the LPGA in a fairly significant way. I see no reason for this trend not to continue in 2010, as the smaller number of total events and higher proportion of limited-field events mean that the better players will get richer. But as the #50 player tends to be doing better relative to the #80 player than the #30 player over time, I also see evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA is deepening.
This trend becomes even clearer when you bring the #100 player into the picture. Just as before, the gap between the #30 and #100 players has been widening from the 1st half (.717) to the 2nd half of the decade (.769), but the separation has been even sharper between the #50 and #100 players (from .339 to .398). Again, the #50 player's takings relative to the #100 player are increasing faster than the #30 player's, although the difference is a bit smaller (a 17.4% increase compared to a 7.3% increase). What this suggests is that the bottom of the 2nd 50 on the LPGA have been holding the line a little better than the top, despite being similarly shut out of most limited-field events. In fact, the distance between the #80 and #100 players actually shrunk from .088 in 2000-2004 to .077 in 2005-2009--a 12.5% drop!
Here's further evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA has been deepening this decade. With the #100 players closing the gap on the #80 players, the competition for those last Category 1 spots has been getting more intense (or would have, if the current rules had been in place all decade). If this trend continues, we're likely to see more years like 2008, where Julieta Granada had the 3rd-best takings of the decade among the #100 players, coming very close to the decade's average, while Wendy Doolan's were only the 6th-best among the #80 players, significantly behind both the 5th-best and the decade's average. In 2009, Rankin had the 4th-best takings of the decade among the #100 players, while Cho had the 5th-best among the #80s; whereas both exceeded the decade's average takings, neither surpassed the averages in the 1st half of the decade. So once again we see how hard it is for those in the fight for Category 1 status to compete against the top 50 and how the #100s are not that far behind the #80s.
I take a couple of final things from this analysis. One is that it's a good thing those who make the top 100 on the money list in one season get pretty much full status for the following season. Since they came so close to getting into Category 1, it makes sense that they are interspersed with Q-School graduates to round out the LPGA's regulars. Two is that it might be worth looking at how the #15 player has fared over the course of the decade relative to the #30, #50, #80, and #100 players. As we've come close to seeing 15 members in the Million Dollar Club in several recent seasons, I'm thinking the number of truly elite players has been increasing on tour over time. But that's a subject for another post!
So if you figure that taking home 1% of the total 2009 purse gets you top 30 status, .5% gets you into the top 50, and .25% gets you into the top 80, then the numbers everyone will be shooting for this coming season are something like $550K, $275K, and $137.5K (assuming the total purse is $55M).
As it turned out, the total purse for 2009 was $47.6M, so my actual predictions should have been $476K for a top 30, $238K for a top 50, and $119K for a top 80. Here's how they actually turned out:
1. Ji-Yai Shin $1.81M
2. Cristie Kerr $1.52M
5. Suzann Pettersen $1.37M
10. Angela Stanford $1.08M
20. Hee Young Park $666.3K
30. Se Ri Pak $447.7K (.941% of the total purse for the season)
50. Inbee Park $271.3K (.570%)
80. Irene Cho $118.3K (.249%)
100. Reilley Rankin $79.1K (.166%)
125. Johanna Mundy $34.7K
What I was originally looking for when compiling the decade's stats was evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA has been getting deeper. Following a comment from Hound Dog on an earlier version of that post, I also got curious as to how the increasing number of limited-field events affects gaps between the #50, #80, and #100 players.
So let's review the takings over the course of the decade:
#30 takings: .767% (2000), .825% (2001), .881% (2002), .984% (2003), .978% (2004), 1.002% (2005), .757% (2006), .857% (2007), 1.045% (2008), .941% (2009); 2000-2009 average: .904%; 2000-2004 average: .887%; 2005-2009 average: .920%
#50 takings: .472% (2000), .515% (2001), .481% (2002), .521% (2003), .555% (2004), .546% (2005), .529% (2006), .484% (2007), .622 (2008), .570% (2009); 2000-2009 average: .530%; 2000-2004 average: .509%; 2005-2009 average: .550%
#80 takings: .275% (2000), .252% (2001), .263% (2002), .214% (2003), .288% (2004), .227% (2005), .224% (2006), .214% (2007), .228 (2008), .249 (2009); 2000-2009 average: .243%; 2000-2004 average: .258%; 2005-2009 average: .228%
#100 takings: .203% (2000), .148% (2001), .158% (2002), .159% (2003), .183% (2004), .144% (2005), .144% (2006), .135% (2007), .168% (2008), .166% (2009); 2000-2009 average: .161%; 2000-2004 average: .170%; 2005-2009 average: .151%
The gap between the #30 and #50 player on tour had been growing steadily between 2000 and 2003, from .295 to .310 to .400 to .463, and only dropped slightly in 2004 to .423; from 2005 to 2006, however, the gap declined sharply from .456 to .228, and only went back up to .373 and .423 in 2007 and 2008 before falling again to .371 in 2009. That averages out to a .378 gap in the 1st half of the decade and a .370 gap in the 2nd half. So while a lot depends on the size of the gap this coming season before we can draw any definite conclusions, the data suggests that with most of the top 50 players getting into most of the limited-field events, there hasn't been a sharper separation between the #30 and #50 players over the course of the decade; if anything, the #50 players have been making up a little ground on the #30 players over the second half of the decade.
Similarly, the gap between the #30 and #80 players grew steadily from 2000 to 2003 (from .492 to .573 to .618 to .770) and dropped slightly in 2004 (to .690); where the data departs from the #30-#50 gap, however, is from 2005-2009 (moving from .775 to .533 to .643 to .817 to .692): the average gap in the 1st half of the decade was .629, while in the 2nd half of the decade it grew to .692. 2010 will have to buck this trend in a serious way to make a dent in that increasing separation between the #30 and #80 players. Meanwhile, the gap between the #50 and #80 players is widening even further, from .251 in the 1st half of the decade to .322 in the 2nd. That's a 22% increase in the gap between the #50 and #80 players compared to a 9% increase in the gap between the #30 and #80 players--pretty serious.
It seems clear, then, that the increase in limited-field events in the 2nd half of this decade is benefitting the top 50 players over the next 30 players on the LPGA in a fairly significant way. I see no reason for this trend not to continue in 2010, as the smaller number of total events and higher proportion of limited-field events mean that the better players will get richer. But as the #50 player tends to be doing better relative to the #80 player than the #30 player over time, I also see evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA is deepening.
This trend becomes even clearer when you bring the #100 player into the picture. Just as before, the gap between the #30 and #100 players has been widening from the 1st half (.717) to the 2nd half of the decade (.769), but the separation has been even sharper between the #50 and #100 players (from .339 to .398). Again, the #50 player's takings relative to the #100 player are increasing faster than the #30 player's, although the difference is a bit smaller (a 17.4% increase compared to a 7.3% increase). What this suggests is that the bottom of the 2nd 50 on the LPGA have been holding the line a little better than the top, despite being similarly shut out of most limited-field events. In fact, the distance between the #80 and #100 players actually shrunk from .088 in 2000-2004 to .077 in 2005-2009--a 12.5% drop!
Here's further evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA has been deepening this decade. With the #100 players closing the gap on the #80 players, the competition for those last Category 1 spots has been getting more intense (or would have, if the current rules had been in place all decade). If this trend continues, we're likely to see more years like 2008, where Julieta Granada had the 3rd-best takings of the decade among the #100 players, coming very close to the decade's average, while Wendy Doolan's were only the 6th-best among the #80 players, significantly behind both the 5th-best and the decade's average. In 2009, Rankin had the 4th-best takings of the decade among the #100 players, while Cho had the 5th-best among the #80s; whereas both exceeded the decade's average takings, neither surpassed the averages in the 1st half of the decade. So once again we see how hard it is for those in the fight for Category 1 status to compete against the top 50 and how the #100s are not that far behind the #80s.
I take a couple of final things from this analysis. One is that it's a good thing those who make the top 100 on the money list in one season get pretty much full status for the following season. Since they came so close to getting into Category 1, it makes sense that they are interspersed with Q-School graduates to round out the LPGA's regulars. Two is that it might be worth looking at how the #15 player has fared over the course of the decade relative to the #30, #50, #80, and #100 players. As we've come close to seeing 15 members in the Million Dollar Club in several recent seasons, I'm thinking the number of truly elite players has been increasing on tour over time. But that's a subject for another post!
Friday, February 12, 2010
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