Sunday, March 2, 2008

HSBC Women's Champions Sunday: On Real and Moral Victories

Let the historians debate when Lorena Ochoa won the HSBC Women's Champions. Was it when she posted her 32 on the first 9? When she saved bogey on the 13th hole on Friday? Was it her birdie on the 9th on Saturday? Just in case anyone in the universe doubted Hound Dog when he called the tournament for Ochoa yesterday, she just went out in 33 and has a great chance of establishing a tournament record even she'll have trouble beating in the future. Looks like she wasn't kidding in yesterday's interview!

Q. But do you think there's less pressure with an eight point lead?

LORENA OCHOA: Yes, but you know, I'm going to try to win even by more. I think it's always important that you try hard. So tomorrow I'm going to try hard to make more birdies.


Apparently not even thunderstorm delays can affect her focus--although we'll have to see how long the current one lasts. This is as good a time as any to answer some of my questions from yesterday. I'll put them in the order of certainty--many are still wide open.

Who will finish as the top rookie? It's Na Yeon Choi! Even with a double bogey on the 18th, she still shot a 69, which so far is tied for the second-best round of the day. She may even steal a top 10 with her E finish for the tournament if the leaders on the course come back to her. By contrast, Momoko Ueda is having a horrible day (5 bogeys plus a triple on the 4th) even though she got to play with Ai Miyazato (who recently eagled the short par-4 16th). Both are waiting now to finish the 18th. Not a good result for the Rookie of the Year leader.

Ochoa vs. Ochoa: can she break 70 all 4 rounds of the tournament? I'll go out on a limb and say "yes." Lindsey Wright posted a 66 to jump into the top 10 and I suspect Ochoa will want to at least tie her.

Who will lose in the race to avoid being Hound Dog's Big Disappointment of the Week? With Se Ri Pak withdrawing, rumors that her shoulder is not fully healed will intensify, but, like Mi Hyun Kim the previous day, will also have taken herself out of this race. And with Jeong Jang firing off a bogey-free 69 today, she's guaranteed herself at least a top 30. So it comes down to Kerr (-2 on the day and +8 for the tournament with 5 holes to play; T50 so far) and Angela Park (73, +6, T39 so far). This one's still open-ended. My money's on Kerr.

Who will establish themselves as Ochoa's leading challenger in 2008, Creamer, Sorenstam, or Webb? Can any of them at least get the moral victory of making up ground on her tomorrow? I'll take "none of the above" and "no." It doesn't look to me like that much will change in the last 8 holes for Creamer (birdies on 8 and 9, bogeys on 1 and 10), Sorenstam (bogey on 10), and Webb (birdie on 9, bogeys on 5 and 6). Despite Creamer's determined optimism ("I'm ready to go low tomorrow. I know it's going to take a lot and I'm going to need a little help from Lorena, but anything is possible"), Sorenstam's resoluteness ("I have to take it step by and step. Of course I'd like the gap to be not as big but Lorena is playing great golf. There's nothing that I can do about that. I just need an incredible round tomorrow. I've done it before, and I'm hoping tomorrow will be another day like that"), and Webb's honesty ("I think it'll be a good contest for second place tomorrow") in yesterday's interviews, playing in the rain for 2nd hasn't turned out to be quite as motivating for Ochoa's closest competitors this week. Or if the problem isn't their motivation, it's their games. Maybe that'll change with the weather, but I doubt it.

Who will end up on top among those not eligible for the Solheim Cup? Even though Ji-Yai Shin isn't doing anything special, she's now only two behind Webb. It's doubtful either of them will fall back to -2, which is where Wright's 66 put her, but In-Kyung Kim, sandwiched between Wright and Shin, could go either way (or both, as she has all week!).

Who will finish first in the class of '06 this week? This one's very much in doubt. Morgan Pressel birdied the 9th to offset two earlier bogeys and sits just outside the top 10 right now at -1 through 13. Seon Hwa Lee birdied 2 of her first 5 holes to get back under par for the second time in the tournament, but with a bogey on the 8th and no birdies since the 5th, she's stuck at E through 14. Jee Young Lee has fallen back to E through 14, as well, thanks to bogeys on 2 of her last 4 holes, but she's certainly happier than her playing partner Karin Sjodin, who's bogeyed 3 of her last 5 holes to fall back to +6 on the tournament, 2 shots behind Meaghan Francella. Ai-chan has a chance to get back to E for the tournament if she can birdie the 18th, but if the weather remains spotty, the trio ahead of her could easily fall back over par.

Who will be the 2nd-best American of the week? Even with Creamer playing inconsistently today, her status as lead American seems assured. Stacy Prammanasudh and Laura Diaz are tied at -5 and not doing anything particularly special so far today. Christina Kim is making a run at them; at -3 through her first 14 holes, she's pulled within 3 shots of them and sits 1 shot ahead of Pressel and Angela Stanford.

Who will be the 2nd-best European of the week? Maria Hjorth has made up a 3-stroke deficit on Catriona Matthew with 2 holes left for the former and 5 left for the latter. At +1 on the tournament, they are 3 shots ahead of Janice Moodie (who closed with a nice 71) and Suzann Pettersen, who is playing with Hjorth and having a disappointing finish to a disappointing week. Sjodin and Mhairi McKay appear to be out of it, two shots back with holes running out for them. And Cavalleri is losing ground even to Linda Wessberg, who followed up her 81 with a 76 to finish the tournament a disappointing +8.

[Update 1 (4:49 am): The Day 4 Live Update page has just reported that Kerr WDed. I sure hope it's due to illness and not, say, frustration over a disaster hole that put her back over par on the day. Her scorecard has already been wiped, so we may never find out. Maybe Hound Dog should just hit all 3 big-name WDs with his Big Disappointment award.

In happier news, some of the leaders appear to have regrouped and are starting to make birdies again. Sorenstam just pulled even with Creamer at -8; Diaz has gotten to -6 and is 1 ahead of Prammanasudh and 3 of Christina Kim; Pressel birdied 15 for the 4th time in a row and followed it up with a birdie on 16 to offset Seon Hwa Lee's birdie there and take a -3 to -1 lead on her with 2 holes left to play (Lee is in the clubhouse at -1, T12, and Ai-chan is looking for her first LPGA top 20 in awhile after having posted a 71 that brought her back to +1); In-Kyung Kim is now tied with Webb at -5 and Shin remains a stroke back; and Matthew has opened up a big lead on Hjorth.]

[Update 2 (5:02 am): Speaking of moral victories, how about Juli Inkster's 69 today? Eking out what looks to be a top 25 finish despite playing as bad as she did for the first 3 rounds is pretty cool! In-Kyung Kim has now passed Webb and opened up a 2-shot lead on Shin, too. Go, Super Soph, go! You might even be able to catch Creamer, who just bogeyed the 15th]

[Update 3 (5:12 am): I haven't mentioned Na Zhang, but her closing 69 was another moral victory--good enough for a top-15 finish. I must have jinxed In-Kyung Kim, who just bogeyed the 17th to fall back into a tie with Webb (who like Shin failed to birdie the 15th or the 16th).]

[Update 4 (5:24 am): With 1 hole left to play, Laura Diaz has a decent chance to finish not only as the top American (she's 1 behind Creamer, who just failed to match Sorenstam's birdie on the 16th [her 4th on that hole in the tournament]) but also the only player in the field besides Ochoa to go under par on all 4 rounds. With their rounds complete, Morgan Pressel ends up beating Seon Hwa Lee by 2 shots for top '06er honors and Catriona Matthew takes 2nd Euro by 2 shots over Pettersen, Hjorth, and Moodie.]

[Update 5 (5:37 am): Well, Diaz, Prammanasudh, and Webb definitely made me regret putting them only as my alternates in the PakPicker this week. If I had picked them, I would have had a chance for a top 5. As it is, I'll be lucky to get a second consecutive top 10. And in the moral victories department, Young Kim and Brittany Lincicome went under par for the first time this week and Katherine Hull did them one (well, actually 2) better by breaking 70 today. Too bad for In-Kyung Kim, who had gone -4 between the 9th and 16th holes--she finished bogey-double to fall back into a tie for 8th with Christina Kim and Morgan Pressel. Still a very good result for someone who was about as inconsistent as Maria Hjorth this week. Now the top-non-Solheimer duel is back to Webb (-5) vs. Shin (-4) on the 18th hole....]

[Update 6 (5:46 am): Looks like Lindsey Wright's friends will be making her an "I Beat Lorena Ochoa at the HSBC!" t-shirt, as Ochoa needs an eagle on 18 to tie her. Diaz posted a 71 and Sorenstam just needs a par or better on her final hole to join her and Ochoa as the only 4-time-sub-par players this week, while Creamer need a birdie on the same hole to become the only other player to shoot par or better in all 4 rounds. Webb stayed ahead of Shin for the non-Solheim-eligible-group win, but her final round must have been infuriating, what with the dialogue with the distracting fan and the cap throwing and all.]

[Update 7 (5:51 am): It's official! Not only was Ochoa the only player to get double digits under par, she also got to -20 for the tournament. What an incredible win! Creamer couldn't get the mini-moral victory of a birdie on the 18th; losing by 5 to Ochoa and 2 to Sorenstam today is definitely a setback in her quest to be #1.]

[Update 8 (5:55 am): I just noticed that the PR push to get this tournament recognized as a "fifth major" has already begun. In my book, it's not even close until it goes full-field and adds a cut. Guaranteed money does not a major make.]

[Update 9 (6:12 am): Here's a suggestion to HSBC. If you don't want to go the route of imitating the British Open right away, rename this thing the HSBC Asian Masters and follow the Evian's lead of expanding the field to 90, instituting a cut, and raising the prize money. Or keep this one as is and bring the Match Play to Asia, right between the late-season Hawaii event and the Asian swing in October. Having an early- and late-season statement-making event will establish you as the top sponsor of women's golf in the world. (For the revised version of the last two updates, head on over to Waggle Room.)]

[Update 10 (8:31 am): Just read on Seoul Sisters that Se Ri Pak WDed because her grandmother passed away. My condolences to the Pak family. Even though Hound Dog wasn't aware of this, he gave the BDA to Kerr. I think he made the right call.]

[Update 11 (9:36 am): The Full Metal Archivist just showed me a clip from late last month on SMAPxSMAP in which Ai-chan was enjoying cheese fondue in their SMAP Bistro segment. I think there was a delayed SMAP effect this week. Hope her comeback continues! Whether it will be in Mexico in two weeks or whether she and Momo-chan will stay in Japan for some early-season JLPGA events and return for the Safeway International in Portland at the end of March, we'll have to wait and see. LPGA.com does not have final fields posted for their two March events. Not an auspicious way to keep the momentum of Sorenstam-Creamer-Ochoa wins going, is it?]

[Update 12 (9:45 am): Ueda is definitely playing in Okinawa next week, but Miyazato is not listed in the field. Kinda confirms the suspicion that the JLPGA still holds a grudge for her leaving to play in the States so soon, eh?]

[Update 13 (2:22 pm): Mulligan Stu and Ron Sirak do a good job putting Ochoa's win in perspective.]

[Update 14 (7:54 pm): And Gayle Moss (aka Golfgal) plays Tom Cruise to Lorena's Cuba Gooding Jr. and issues a rousing call to show them the money!]

1 comment:

The Constructivist said...

Revised updates 8 and 9 into a Waggle Room post.