Monday, March 31, 2008

The Young Guns: Ranking the Class of '07, March Edition

The Super Sophs are no more (being juniors now and all); long live the New Super Sophs! That's my motto in 2008, as I track the career achievements of the LPGA classes of 2006 and 2007. Why not the class of 2008? There's always a lot of attention to the Rookie of the Year race, so besides including some in my pre-season survey, I'm making them wait till the end of the season to join this ranking.

Here's my season schedule:

February: '06ers
April: top Super Sophs, Old and New (pre-SemGroup)
May: '06ers
June: '07ers
July: '06ers (pre-British Open)
August: '07ers (post-Safeway)
September: top Super Sophs, Old and New (post-Navistar)
October: '06ers (pre-Korea Championship)
November: '07ers (post-ADT)
December: all 3 Young Gun classes (post-Q School)

So with the year's first major around the corner, who among the New Super Sophs can we expect to excel at the Kraft Nabisco Championship?

Simply the Best

1. Angela Park: Even with a disappointing start to the 2008 season by her Rookie of the Year standards, she remains head and shoulders above her nearest competitors.

The Contenders

2. In-Kyung Kim: Outplayed Angela Park in the Lexus Cup and off to a slightly better start than her in 2008, but still not yet in her class, a fact emphasized by her MC at the Safeway International.
3. Eun-Hee Ji: In only 9 career LPGA starts, on an Angela Park-like pace, stats-wise--and the top-ranked player in her class in both the RR and the GSPI (once she gets enough events in to be official on the latter list). Not all that surprising, given her 4 wins on the KLPGA and her winning of exempt status in only a handful of events as a rookie.
4. Jane Park: The top golfer in her class in 2008 is rocketing up the charts, despite having only 15 career LPGA starts to her name.
5. Inbee Park: A disappointing Sunday at Superstition Mountain in her only really strong start of the season confirms for me that she has been passed by Ji and Jane Park.
6. Na On Min: A non-exempt golfer last year who played her way into a lot of tournaments, she has 2 top 20s and a MC so far in her first season with a card.

Quantum Leap Candidates

7. Ji Young Oh: Had great chances at the MasterCard and Safeway International to make the leap, but disappointing Sundays at Bosque Real and Superstition Mountain did her in.
8. Charlotte Mayorkas: Great finish at the Safeway International puts her a nose ahead of Hong at this point in their careers, despite Hong's greater success at breaking into the top 10 and top 20 thus far.
9. Jin Joo Hong: Got passed by Oh and Mayorkas early this season, but the potential is definitely there for this 2-time KLPGA winner (including, like Jee Young Lee in the class ahead of her, a surprise win at the late-season joint KLPGA-LPGA event).
10. Song-Hee Kim: Has yet to hit her stride in the LPGA, but this Futures Tour sensation has begun to show signs of life in 2008.

On the Bottom Looking Up

11. Su A Kim: Hasn't taken much advantage of her surprise Q-School performance that leapfrogged her into exempt status for 2008, but it's a long season and she's got the second-best made-cut rate in her class, so time is on her side.
12. Sophie Giquel: Would rank behind several in the next category, except for her exempt status.
13. Seo-Jae Lee: Ditto.

On the Outside Looking In (non-exempt in 2008)

14. Irene Cho: Has moved to the head of the non-exempt class this season, but every MC makes it that much harder to get into the next event. May still be able to pass several in the next ranking in a couple of months if she can get enough starts.
15. Kristy McPherson: Ditto, except for the head of the class part.
16. Paige Mackenzie: It will be interesting to see how many Futures Tour events she plays this season, and how well she does.
17. Becky Lucidi: Ditto.
18. Cindy Pasechnik: Ditto.
19. Sarah Lynn Sargent: Ditto.
20. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke: Ditto.

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the March ranking.

2008 LPGA Money List (rank), stroke average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I'm going to focus on four key indicators of how well someone is playing this season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category. (I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I won't include putts per green in regulation here.) Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future.

1. Jane Park $157.8K (#10), 70.83 (#11), 3.25 (#45), 77.8% (#4)
2. Eun-Hee Ji, $84.5K (#16), 71.93 (#42), 3.00 (#30), 72.2% (#20)
3. In-Kyung Kim, $76.4K (#21), 72.29 (#55), 3.21 (#30), 65.9% (#75)
4. Angela Park, $64.3K (#28), 72.07 (#46), 3.36 (#21), 72.8% (#18)
5. Ji Young Oh, $57.3K (#30), 71.15 (#18), 3.15 (#38), 67.2% (#62)
6. Inbee Park, $40.8K (#41), 72.50 (#62), 2.75 (#64), 63.2% (#94)
7. Charlotte Mayorkas, $36.9K (#45), 72.44 (#59), 2.94 (#21), 67.3% (#59)
8. Na On Min, $32.9K (#50), 73.14 (#86), 2.71 (#49), 66.7% (#67)
9. Irene Cho, $30.3K (#52), 72.64 (#69), 3.27 (#55), 58.3% (#120)
10. Jin Joo Hong, $25.3K (#64), 72.92 (#75), 2.62 (#61), 57.4% (#125)
11. Song-Hee Kim, $24.0K (#69), 72.60 (#65), 3.00 (#77), 65.9% (#75)
12. Su A Kim, $15.8K (#88), 73.33 (#92), 2.75 (#64), 54.9% (#135)
13. Becky Lucidi, $13.4K (#94), 74.00 (#111), 2.82 (#75), 65.3% (#79)
14. Kristy McPherson, $13.2K (#95), 74.44 (#126), 2.56 (#101), 57.4% (#125)
15. Cindy Pasechnik, $8.5K (#112), 73.50 (#103), 2.13 (#126), 48.9% (#145)
16. Sophie Giquel, $7.1 (#115), 73.14 (#86), 2.43 (#126), 69.0% (#42)
17. Paige Mackenzie, $7.1K (#116), 73.00 (#76), 2.60 (#137), 74.1% (#10)
18. Seo-Jae Lee, $5.8K (#124), 73.38 (#96), 2.88 (#101), 58.7% (#115)
19. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke, $2.5K (#148), 76.33 (n.r.), ?, ?
20. Sarah Lynn Sargent, $0 (#153), 78.00 (n.r.), ?, ?


Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events entered/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/cuts made (made cut rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the '07ers have been at this for barely over a year, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who have not been exempt each season. What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now. I include these other ways of seeing how the '07ers finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. So here's how they stand:

1. Angela Park, $1.05M (#150), 32/0/0/4/9/13/31 (.969)
2. In-Kyung Kim, $.53M (#236), 30/0/0/1/6/9/24 (.800)
3. Inbee Park, $.42M (#259), 30/0/0/1/3/6/19 (.633)
4. Na On Min, $.34M (#282), 24/0/0/1/2/5/16 (.667)
5. Eun-Hee Ji, $.33M (#289), 9/0/0/1/3/4/7 (.778)
6. Jane Park, $.22M (#346), 15/0/0/2/2/4/12 (.800)
7. Ji Young Oh, $.21M (#355), 26/0/0/0/2/3/14 (.538)
8. Charlotte Mayorkas, $.19M (#364), 26/0/0/0/0/3/19 (.731)
9. Jin Joo Hong, $.19M (#369), 25/0/0/0/1/5/15 (.600)
10. Song-Hee Kim $.10M (#434), 23/0/0/0/0/1/12 (.522)
11. Kristy McPherson, $.09M (#445), 22/0/0/0/0/1/12 (.545)
12. Irene Cho, $.09M (#449), 23/0/0/0/1/1/12 (.522)
13. Paige Mackenzie, $.06M (#497), 21/0/0/0/0/1/10 (.476)
14. Sarah Lynn Sargent, $.04M (#540), 21/0/0/0/0/0/9 (.429)
15. Su A Kim, $.03M (#550), 7/0/0/0/0/0/6 (.857)
16. Sophie Giquel, $.03M (#551), 9/0/0/0/0/0/5 (.556)
17. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke, $.02M (#575), 9/0/0/0/0/1/2 (.222)
18. Becky Lucidi $.02M (#598), 6/0/0/0/0/0/3 (.500)
19. Seo-Jae Lee, $.01M (#615), 6/0/0/0/0/0/2 (.333)
20. Cindy Pasechnik, $.01M (#629), 11/0/0/0/0/0/3 (.273)


Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 3/31/08) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 3/30/08) and rank, International and Non-Member LPGA Wins (as of the end of the 2007 season): This is a way of seeing how those Super Sophs who sometimes or regularly or always compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Eun-Hee Ji, 3.29 (#29), 70.62 (n.r. [not enough events in database as yet]); 4
2. Angela Park, 3.29 (#30), 70.90 (#18); 0
3. In-Kyung Kim, 2.47 (#42), 71.94 (#41); 0
4. Na On Min, 1.69 (#56), 73.14 (#92); 0
5. Inbee Park, 1.58 (#62), 73.07 (#89); 0
6. Jin Joo Hong, 1.55 (#64), 72.93 (#82); 2
7. Jane Park, 1.29 (#80), 72.25 (#52); 0
8. Ji Young Oh, .86 (#122); 72.88 (#79); 0
9. Charlotte Mayorkas, .79 (#131), 72.14 (#48); 0
10. Sophie Giquel, .74 (#140), 73.08 (#90); 1
11. Song-Hee Kim, .56 (#181), 73.50 (#117); 0
12. Irene Cho, .37 (#240), 74.14 (#174); 0
13. Kristy McPherson, .32 (#252), 73.79 (#148); 0
14. Paige Mackenzie, .26 (#289), 74.88 (#231); 0
15. Seo-Jae Lee, .14 (#390), 74.42 (#191); 0
16. Su A Kim, .13 (#391), 73.93 (#158); 0
17. Sarah Lynn Sargent, .08 (#463), 75.46 (#292); 0
18. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke, .07 (#488), 76.40 (#363)
19. Becky Lucidi, .03 (#592), 74.99 (#246); 0
20. Cindy Pasechnik, .02 (#688), 76.02 (#331); 0