Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The Best of the Young Guns: Top Junior Mints, October 2008 Edition

Now that Morgan Pressel has become the 2nd repeat winner among the LPGA's Junior Mints, will we start seeing more victories from this rookie class that's in serious danger of being overshadowed by the Super Sophs and Class of '08?

Simply the Best

1. Seon Hwa Lee: Slumping by her standards of late, but still one of the steadiest players on tour, with the talent to go low more often than most. The clear #1.
2. Morgan Pressel: Putting some serious swing changes in place this season, so her results have been wildly inconsistent of late, but you can't argue with her 2nd win. The clear #2.
3. Jee Young Lee: Still getting lots of top 20s, but not having the breakout year many expected of her. Playing a much more limited schedule than usual, as well. Injury issues? That's the only thing I can think of to account for the fact that Julieta Granada is still ahead of her on the career money list and Pressel is threatening to pass her.

The Contenders

4. Ai Miyazato: She got 2 top 10s--including a runner-up--when she played in the last two JLPGA majors, but her recent performances on the LPGA (missed and barely-made cuts) have not been inspiring. She's on the wrong side of the bubble when it comes to making the ADT Championship--she's probably about $70K shy right now--with only the Mizuno Championship and, if she can move into the top 36 on the money list after it, Lorena's Invitational, in which to earn it. If she can't do it, it'll be the first time in her career she hasn't played in it.
5. Brittany Lang: Coming on strong with 3 straight top 10s. She now has more top 20s than Ai-chan and is closing fast in other stats. If her putting ever matched her GIR rate, she'd be a pretty dangerous player.

Quantum Leap Candidates

6. Sun Young Yoo: Her fine play continues as intermittently as ever; next step is to get used to being in or near contention and nail down more top 10s and top 20s. I wouldn't be surprised if she got her 1st win before Ai-chan or Brittany--"surprise" wins been the model for the Super Sophs, so why not the Junior Mints, as well?
7. Teresa Lu: Not playing all that well lately, but still outplaying those below her in this ranking this season and in her career.
8. H.J. Choi: Not playing all that much on the LPGA lately, her weak performance in China shows her rust.
9. Julieta Granada: Still slumping, but I wouldn't put anyone ahead of her right now. She finished #100 on the money list on the dot, but has higher priority status because of her 2006 ADT victory.
10. Meaghan Francella: Ditto on just about everything, except her victory came in early 2007 in Mexico.
11. Allison Fouch: Getting more consistent, she has put up a number of good finishes lately. She's on a pace to pass a lot of people, but let's wait and see how she handles her 2nd full season on tour in 2009 before we get too excited.
12. Kyeong Bae: Since her top 10 at the State Farm, she's missed a passel of cuts. Injury?
13. Minea Blomqvist: She hasn't done anything special on the LPGA in a while, even after she won on the LET.
14. Linda Wessberg: Her 1st full season on the LPGA has been a disappointing one, but she still earned Category 1 status for next season. Needs to start hitting more greens to become a top 50 player here.

On the Bottom Looking Up

15. Sarah Jane Kenyon: Played pretty well on the LPGA after securing her 2009 card through a top-5 finish on the Futures Tour money list this season. Let's see how she handles a full season on tour.
16. Katie Futcher: Her stats remain better than her results this season. Hasn't been able to break through like Kristy McPherson of the Super Sophs has. Maybe next year?
17. Karin Sjodin: Major slump alert: hasn't finished better than T25 this season and has missed many more cuts than she's made. I assume she'll be going to Q-School to improve her priority status for 2009--if she had flipped with Granada, both would be in a majority of events next season. At #101, though, she'll need a good week at Q-School to avoid a split LPGA-LET schedule in '09.
18. Kim Hall: I don't know how she does it, but this Stanford grad keeps on keeping her card, thanks to yet another great late-season finish, this one a bronze at the Bell Micro.
19. Danielle Downey: She made a great charge to get into the top 100 of the money list, mostly on the strength of a T4 at the Bell Micro. A Hall understudy?

On the Outside Looking In

20. Virada Nirapathpongporn: It's back to Q-School for this Junior Mint everyone's rooting for.
21. Na Ri Kim: Ditto.
22. Nina Reis: Probably will be playing the LET full-time in '09.
23. Louise Stahle: Ditto.
24. Veronica Zorzi: Ditto.
25. Ashley Johnston: Hasn't used her medical exemption for 2008--will she have it for 2009?

***

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the October ranking.

2008 LPGA Money List (rank), scoring average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone is playing this season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, and how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category. (I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I won't include putts per green in regulation here.) Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future.

1. Seon Hwa Lee, $1.14M (#6), 71.40 (#15), 3.12 (#14), 67.8% (#16)
2. Morgan Pressel, $687.6K (#21), 71.86 (#36), 3.20 (#36), 65.3% (#50)
3. Sun Young Yoo, $619.4K (#23), 71.63 (#22), 3.52 (#5), 66.7% (#25)
4. Jee Young Lee, $604.9K (#27), 71.44 (#17), 3.60 (#11), 66.4% (#34)
5. Brittany Lang, $510.3K (#32), 71.93 (#38), 3.04 (#27), 68.1% (#8)
6. Teresa Lu, $486.5K (#34), 72.31 (#51), 2.78 (#41), 63.9% (#68)
7. Ai Miyazato, $406.6K (#41), 72.18 (#48), 2.82 (#59), 62.1% (#97)
8. Minea Blomqvist, $395.9K (#45), 72.44 (#58), 3.25 (#46), 59.7% (#134)
9. Alison Fouch, $336.3K (#51), 73.07 (#93), 3.04 (#52), 62.6% (#86)
10. H.J. Choi, $245.1K (#58), 72.61 (#68), 2.79 (#49), 60.9% (#115)
11. Kim Hall, $168.7K (#68), 73.22 (#101), 2.46 (#99), 64.0% (#64)
12. Katie Futcher, $166.5K (#69), 71.69 (#30), 3.33 (#48), 65.7% (#44)
13. Linda Wessberg, $165.1K (#71), 73.23 (#103), 3.10 (#52), 59.8% (#131)
14. Kyeong Bae, $158.5K (#75), 73.04 (#89), 3.10 (#55), 60.7% (#118)
15. Meaghan Francella, $117.7K (#88), 73.75 (#131), 2.40 (#95), 65.2% (#52)
16. Danielle Downey, $117.3K (#89), 73.15 (#99), 2.83 (#112), 65.0% (#56)
17. Julieta Granada, $101.1K (#100), 73.31 (#107), 2.40 (#92), 58.3% (#144)
18. Karin Sjodin, $98.8K (#101), 73.43 (#113), 2.91 (#78), 62.3% (#95)
19. Sarah Jane Kenyon, $97.1K (#102), 72.61 (#67), 3.29 (#131), 67.6% (#17)
20. Na Ri Kim, $43.2K (#139), 73.03 (#88), 2.86 (#152), 66.3% (#35)
21. Virada Nirapathpongporn, $40.9K (#140), 74.06 (#138), 2.65 (#129), 61.1% (#112)
22. Nina Reis, $33.9K (#148), 75.18 (#?), 2.53 (#?), 53.9% (#?)
23. Louise Stahle, $23.0K (#154), 74.90 (#?), ?, ?


Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events entered/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/cuts made (made cut rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the Junior Mints haven't been at this all too long, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who have not been exempt every year or who have chosen to focus more on other tours. What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now. In any case, I include these other ways of seeing how the Junior Mints finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. So here's how they stand:

1. Seon Hwa Lee, $3.16M (#52), 85/0/4/9/22/44/80 (.941)
2. Julieta Granada, $2.15M (#82), 83/0/1/5/10/21/56 (.675)
3. Jee Young Lee, $2.15M (#83), 74/0/0/5/20/41/69 (.932)
4. Morgan Pressel, $2.13M (#84), 72/1/2/6/22/37/62 (.861)
5. Ai Miyazato, $1.73M (#101), 68/0/0/4/17/26/55 (.809)
6. Brittany Lang, $1.40M (#121), 81/0/0/3/15/30/58 (.716)
7. Sun Young Yoo, $.98M (#173), 78/0/0/1/7/19/58 (.744)
8. Kyeong Bae, $.75M (#210), 77/0/0/2/7/12/53 (.688)
9. Teresa Lu, $.74M (#214), 67/0/0/1/5/15/48 (.716)
10. Meaghan Francella $.63M (#232), 54/0/1/1/4/9/30 (.556)
11. Minea Blomqvist, $.56M (#242), 57/0/0/1/3/8/35 (.614)
12. H.J. Choi, $.55M (#244), 53/0/0/0/6/11/36 (.679)
13. Karin Sjodin, $.42M (#277), 64/0/0/0/3/9/37 (.578)
14. Katie Futcher, $.37M (#291), 63/0/0/0/3/5/41 (.651)
15. Alison Fouch, $.34M (#300), 23/0/0/1/2/5/15 (.652)
16. Kim Hall, $.33M (#307), 55/0/0/1/3/4/23 (.418)
17. Linda Wessberg, $.33M (#308), 37/0/0/0/4/6/24 (.649)
18. Virada Nirapathpongporn, $.23M (#361), 56/0/0/0/1/4/27 (.482)
19. Nina Reis, $.23M (#363), 52/0/0/0/3/4/28 (.538)
20. Danielle Downey, $.13M (#424), 32/0/0/0/1/2/10 (.313)
21. Sarah Jane Kenyon $.10M (#449), 13/0/0/0/1/3/7 (.538)
22. Na Ri Kim, $.09M (#457), 34/0/0/0/0/2/14 (.412)
23. Veronica Zorzi, $.09M (#470), 16/0/0/0/0/1/13 (.813)
24. Louise Stahle, $.05M (#522), 23/0/0/0/0/1/10 (.435)
25. Ashley Johnston, $.05M (#535), 13/0/0/0/0/0/6 (.462)


Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 10/27/08) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 7/27/08) and rank, International and Non-Member LPGA Wins (as of the end of the 2007 season): This is a way of seeing how those Junior Mints who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, JLPGA, KLPGA, LET, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Seon Hwa Lee, 4.83 (#10), 70.56 (#16), 3
2. Morgan Pressel, 4.47 (#15), 71.28 (#42), 0
3. Jee Young Lee, 4.13 (#19), 70.78 (#24), 2
4. Ai Miyazato, 2.79 (#38), 71.60 (#51), 14
5. Brittany Lang, 2.18 (#49), 71.14 (#34), 0
6. Teresa Lu, 1.90 (#59), 71.19 (#35), 0
7. Minea Blomqvist, 1.79 (#63), 71.80 (#65), 5
8. Sun Young Yoo, 1.78 (#65), 71.40 (#43), 0
9. Meaghan Francella, 1.34 (#83), 73.69 (#177), 0
10. H.J. Choi, 1.30 (#86), 72.33 (#85), 1
11. Allison Fouch, 1.26 (#88), 72.73 (#103), 0
12. Linda Wessberg, 1.19 (#91), 72.97 (#118), 6
13. Julieta Granada, 1.10 (#100), 73.42 (#152), 0
14. Kim Hall, .85 (#123), 73.54 (#162), 0
15. Kyeong Bae, .78 (#129), 73.35 (#148), 3
16. Katie Futcher, .73 (#139), 71.89 (#67), 0
17. Karin Sjodin, .67 (#153), 73.37 (#150), 1
18. Louise Stahle, .55 (#172), 72.73 (#106), 0
19. Danielle Downey, .53 (#185), 73.69 (#176), 0
20. Sarah Jane Kenyon, .42 (#219), 73.21 (#134), 0
21. Nina Reis, .31 (#253), 73.86 (#187), 5
22. Veronica Zorzi, .30 (#258), 74.55 (#246), 2
23. Na Ri Kim, .28 (#267), 73.57 (#165), 0
24. Virada Nirapathpongporn, .28 (#269), 74.32 (#231), 0
25. Ashley Johnston, .05 (#490), n.r. [not in database], 0


So there you have it. I'll be checking back in on these rankings on the following schedule:

February: Junior Mints
March: Super Sophs
April: both
May: Junior Mints
June: Super Sophs
July: Junior Mints
August: Super Sophs
September: both
November: Super Sophs (post-ADT)
December: all the Young Guns, including the '08 rookies (post-Q School)

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