Thursday, November 27, 2008

The Best of the Young Guns: Top Super Sophs, November 2008 Edition

Eun-Hee Ji was the last Super Soph standing in the ADT Championship, validating my ranking her at the head of her class in September. But you can't keep a good Park down--even though she cooled off at the end of the season and is still searching for her 1st career win, she's still the Super Soph to beat.

So here's how I rank the LPGA Class of 2007 at the end of 2008. When comparing them to where the Class of 2006 stood at this time last year, it's impressive how they've spread the wins around and how closely their top 12s match up with what is still the strongest rookie class in the history of the LPGA, but unless the '07ers at the bottom of the pile do well in Q-School, it's clear the '06ers are a much deeper class. However, with the '07ers' top 7 so closely bunched, expect their rankings to be a bit more volatile in '09.

Simply the Best

1. Angela Park: I predict multiple wins in '09 for Angela. She's bound to break that million-dollar barrier in season winnings soon!
2. Eun-Hee Ji: Another season like this one and I'll put her back in the top spot, but Angela Park came on too strong in the 2nd half of the season to deny it to her this time.
3. In-Kyung Kim: Put on a fantastic run in the 2nd half of her season, from a 3rd at the U.S. Women's Open to a 9th at the Women's British Open to her 1st career win at the Long Drugs. So even though she didn't make it to the final round of the ADT Championship, I would say she had the best 2nd half of all the Super Sophs. And I expect 2009 to be even better.
4. Inbee Park: Had about as disappointing a 2nd half of 2008 as Ai Miyazato's was in 2007. Still, she's got a major under her belt and no injuries to deal with, so look for her to bounce back in '09.

The Contenders

5. Song-Hee Kim: Probably the best player in her class without a win, she had a close call at the Samsung and only a disappointing Asian Swing and early rounds of the ADT Championship stopped her from breaking the million-dollar barrier. She had the best stats in her class in '08, which is really saying something. Plus, she's the only one besides Angela Park to break the million-dollar barrier in career winnings without needing a win to do so. Once she gets that 1st win, watch out for her!
6. Jane Park: Just missed the ADT Championship this season, but I don't think that'll happen too often the rest of her career. If she hadn't slumped by her standards the 2nd half of the season, I'd call her the best in her class without a win. Watch for her to break through next season with her 1st win and to put herself in contention many times.
7. Ji Young Oh: No post-win let-down for this Super Soph! She played a lot after her win and played very well. Looks like she's for real.
8. Kristy McPherson: Good Southern Swing, bad Asian Swing for this up-and-coming Super Soph. Expect her to be making the Asian swing for many more years to come.

Quantum Leap Candidates

9. Jin Joo Hong: T11 at the Mizuno Classic was a great way to end her 2008 season on the LPGA.
10. Na On Min: Phew--she kept her card for 2008! Must be glad to get that sophomore jinx out of the way.
11. Irene Cho: Made 4 of 5 cuts down the stretch when her card was on the line--and kept it with room to spare. A good sign for '09.
12. Charlotte Mayorkas: Made the top 100 but is heading to Q-School to improve her status even more. I think she's going to do it. By how much, I'm not so sure. It's the strongest Q-School field in recent memory--and maybe the best ever.

On the Bottom Looking Up

13. Sophie Giquel: Going back to Q-School. I'm not optimistic for her. But at least she made the top 120 on the money list, so she'll get into some LPGA events next season.
14. Paige Mackenzie: Ditto.
15. Becky Lucidi: The only one in this bunch not headed to Q-School. But at least she made the top 120 on the money list, so she, too, will get into a few LPGA events.

On the Outside Looking In

16. Seo-Jae Lee: Having fallen outside the top 120 on the money list, Q-School is her last stand. I'm not at all optimistic.
17. Su A Kim: Ditto.
18. Sarah Lynn Sargent: Ditto.
19. Cindy Pasechnik: Ditto.
20. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke: Ditto.

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the November ranking.

2008 LPGA Money List (rank), stroke average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone played this season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, and how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future.

1. Inbee Park, $1.14M (#8), 71.78 (#26), 3.34 (#22), 61.4% (#109)
2. Song-Hee Kim, $980.9K (#14), 71.23 (#10), 3.48 (#29), 68.9% (#5)
3. Eun-Hee Ji, $914.0K (#15), 71.47 (#15), 3.24 (#18), 65.9% (#39)
4. Angela Park, $869.9K (#17), 71.99 (#37), 3.26 (#20), 64.9% (#58)
5. In-Kyung Kim, $774.0K (#22), 71.54 (#18), 3.54 (#13), 62.2% (#96)
6. Ji Young Oh, $680.2K (#25), 71.65 (#22), 3.29 (#12), 65.7% (#44)
7. Jane Park, $631.4K (#29), 71.83 (#31), 3.13 (#31), 66.9% (#24)
8. Kristy McPherson, $407.2K (#47), 71.86 (#34), 3.22 (#33), 65.9% (#40)
9. Jin Joo Hong, $339.5K (#53), 72.37 (#53), 2.84 (#76), 62.5% (#89)
10. Irene Cho, $176.8K (#71), 72.92 (#83), 3.11 (#73), 63.3% (#74)
11. Na On Min, $146.6K (#76), 73.19 (#101), 2.63 (#71), 61.7% (#105)
12. Charlotte Mayorkas, $107.6K (#97), 72.96 (#84), 2.67 (#84), 62.3% (#93)
13. Sophie Giquel, $85.1K (#112), 73.64 (#126), 2.56 (#110), 63.1% (#77)
14. Becky Lucidi, $83.8K (#113), 73.32 (#107), 2.89 (#108), 66.7% (#25)
15. Paige Mackenzie, $78.8K (#120), 73.11 (#97), 3.03 (#119), 61.3% (#104)
16. Seo-Jae Lee, $61.9K (#128), 73.47 (#116), 2.64 (#105), 54.7% (#157)
17. Su A Kim, $55.7K (#132), 73.80 (#132), 2.63 (#106), 57.6% (#145)
18. Cindy Pasechnik, $16.6K (#161), 74.71 (#151), 2.07 (#157), 54.8% (#156)
19. Sarah Lynn Sargent, $12.9K (#163), 74.28 (n.r.), ?, ?
20. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke, $2.5K (#187), 76.84 (n.r.), ?, ?


Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events entered/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/cuts made (made cut rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the Super Sophs haven't been at this all too long, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who have not been exempt both years. What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now. I include these other ways of seeing how the Super Sophs finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. So here's how they stand at the end of '08.

1. Angela Park, $1.85M (#96), 55/0/0/6/15/22/50 (.910)
2. Inbee Park, $1.52M (#111), 47/1/1/3/9/15/33 (.702)
3. In-Kyung Kim, $1.23M (#136), 51/0/1/3/12/20/43 (.843)
4. Eun-Hee Ji, $1.16M (#148), 32/0/1/4/10/13/27 (.844)
5. Song-Hee Kim $1.06M (#160), 51/0/0/4/9/17/37 (.725)
6. Ji Young Oh, $.83M (#201), 51/0/1/1/5/12/36 (.706)
7. Jane Park, $.70M (#221), 37/0/0/3/4/8/31 (.838)
8. Jin Joo Hong, $.50M (#258), 43/0/0/0/2/7/28 (.651)
9. Kristy McPherson, $.49M (#264), 42/0/0/0/6/9/30 (.714)
10. Na On Min, $.46M (#272), 45/0/0/1/2/5/28 (.622)
11. Charlotte Mayorkas, $.26M (#340), 43/0/0/0/0/4/30 (.698)
12. Irene Cho, $.24M (#353), 40/0/0/0/2/4/23 (.575)
13. Paige Mackenzie, $.13M (#425), 36/0/0/0/0/1/17 (.472)
14. Sophie Giquel, $.11M (#442), 26/0/0/0/0/0/14 (.538)
15. Becky Lucidi $.09M (#474), 22/0/0/0/0/2/8 (.364)
16. Su A Kim, $.07M (#490), 22/0/0/0/0/0/10 (.455)
17. Seo-Jae Lee, $.07M (#494), 21/0/0/0/0/0/9 (.429)
18. Sarah Lynn Sargent, $.05M (#532), 26/0/0/0/0/0/12 (.462)
19. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke, $.02M (#594), 20/0/0/0/0/1/2 (.100)
20. Cindy Pasechnik, $.02M (#607), 19/0/0/0/0/0/5 (.263)


Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 11/24/08) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 11/23/08) and rank, International and Non-Member LPGA Wins (as of the end of the 2007 season): This is a way of seeing how those Super Sophs who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Eun-Hee Ji, 4.28 (#17), 70.43 (#14); 4
2. Inbee Park, 3.82 (#21), 71.09 (#34); 0
3. Angela Park, 3.81 (#22), 70.90 (#27); 0
4. In-Kyung Kim, 3.61 (#25), 70.90 (#28); 0
5. Song-Hee Kim, 2.90 (#36), 70.64 (#20); 0
6. Jane Park, 2.40 (#47), 71.02 (#32); 0
7. Ji Young Oh, 2.00 (#55); 70.94 (#29); 0
8. Kristy McPherson, 1.50 (#73), 71.79 (#63); 0
9. Jin Joo Hong, 1.31 (#86), 72.09 (#76); 2
10. Na On Min, 1.06 (#99), 73.14 (#129); 0
11. Irene Cho, .88 (#117), 72.58 (#101); 0
12. Charlotte Mayorkas, .74 (#131), 72.70 (#108); 0
13. Sophie Giquel, .55 (#170), 73.28 (#144); 1
14. Becky Lucidi, .39 (#222), 73.83 (#186); 0
15. Paige Mackenzie, .35 (#236), 73.45 (#157); 0
16. Su A Kim, .23 (#283), 73.87 (#190); 0
17. Seo-Jae Lee, .19 (#316), 73.88 (#192); 0
18. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke, .04 (#514), 76.74 (#426); 0
19. Sarah Lynn Sargent, .04 (#533), 75.13 (#294); 0
20. Cindy Pasechnik, .01 (#678), 75.18 (#300); 0


So there you have it. One more of these things to go for '08:

February: Junior Mints
March: Super Sophs
April: both
May: Junior Mints
June: Super Sophs
July: Junior Mints
August: Super Sophs
September: both
October: Junior Mints
December: all the Young Guns (post-Q School)

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