Saturday, January 10, 2009

2008 Preseason Predictions, Revisited

Last January I joined Hound Dog, Mulligan Stu, Bill Jempty, and Ron Sirak in attempting to predict the top 30 on the LPGA at the end of the 2008 season. Hound Dog and I checked in with mid-season reports, but how did I end up doing? Here's my predicted top 30, with their actual 2008 results in parentheses (from the LPGA Official Money List, the Rolex Rankings, the Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index, Hound Dog's Top 70, Mostly Harmless's Best of the LPGA: average ranking), along with a few comments:

1. Lorena Ochoa (#1, #1, #1, #1, #1: 1). Big surprise--everyone got this pick right.
2. Paula Creamer (#2, #4, #3, #2, #2: 2.6). I'd say she's the consensus #2, wouldn't you?
3. Seon Hwa Lee (#6, #11, #15, #9, #8: 9.8). She got 2 wins, but didn't finish as consistently well as in previous seasons. Not the breakthrough year I was looking for.
4. Jee Young Lee (#21, #15, #16, #22, #18: 18.4). Nice push at the very end of the season turned what could have been a big disappointment into a medium-sized one.
5. Annika Sorenstam (#4, #3, #5, #4, #3: 3.8). She exceeded my expectations, despite struggling after a near-perfect Michelob Ultra (her last LPGA win).
6. Morgan Pressel (#24, #19, #48, #27, #25: 28.6). Another Young Gun who really let me down this season, even though she did get her 2nd career win. But she gave onechan an autographed ball at the Wegmans, so all is forgiven!
7. Jeong Jang (#12, #13, #7, #12, #12: 11.2). Came close so many times in early '08, but between those near misses and her persistent wrist problems, she didn't meet my expectations in '08.
8. Hee-Won Han (#19, #18, #13, #16, #15: 16.2). She did ok coming off maternity leave, but not as well as I hoped she would.
9. Se Ri Pak (#52, #31, #93, #63, #44: 56.6). The 1st of my picks to miss the top 30 completely. Ouch.
10. Mi Hyun Kim (#40, #29, #22, #29, #27: 29.4). Didn't bounce back from off-season knee surgery as quickly or as effectively as I'd hoped.
11. Angela Park (#17, #22, #27, #25, #21: 22.4). Got hit by the sophomore jinx early in the season when she took a slow-play penalty while in contention in Hawaii, took a long time to bounce back, and finished kind of blah.
12. Stacy Prammanasudh (#37, #34, #44, #36, #36: 37.4). Another big disappointment--the 2nd of my picks to miss the top 30 entirely.
13. Cristie Kerr (#10, #7, #6, #6, #6: 7). Extended her million-dollar season streak to 5 with a great second half that included her 11th career win.
14. Natalie Gulbis (#56, #39, #79, #56, #46: 55.2). Her recurring back injury really limited her play the second half of the season, which explains why she's my 3rd pick to miss the top 30.
15. Suzann Pettersen (#7, #5, #4, #7, #5: 5.6). Even though she couldn't find that next LPGA win in '08, she had a very consistent and successful season--definitely exceeded my expectations.
16. Ai Miyazato (#46, #37, #46, #49, #41: 43.8). Made a decent comeback from her woes in the 2nd half of her sophomore season (leg injury, swing flaw, confidence loss), getting into contention a couple of times in '08, but she's still my 4th pick to miss the top 30 and yet another Junior Mint disappointment.
17. In-Kyung Kim (#22, #25, #28, #20, #22: 23.4). This "punk kid" (as she described herself) got her 1st LPGA win in '08, coming back from a so-so start to the season, but still didn't perform up to my expectations.
18. Momoko Ueda (#45, #14, #26, #35, #28: 29.6). Without her 2 wins on the JLPGA, she would have dropped sharply in the world rankings and dropped out of the top 30 (she's already out in winnings and Hound Dog's ranking). But I'm not complaining.
19. Eun-Hee Ji (#15, #17, #14, #13, #14: 14.6). I ranked her as the top Super Soph at one point this season (soon after she got her 1st LPGA win) and she'll be back there again if she continues to outperform her peers. Her consistency reminds me of Seon Hwa Lee.
20. Jane Park (#29, #47, #32, #34, #33: 35). Didn't have the breakthrough season I predicted, and a late slump made her my 5th pick to miss the top 30.
21. Karrie Webb (#18, #10, #10, #15, #10: 12.6). Even though she didn't win on the LPGA in '08, she still exceeded my expectations by a lot.
22. Brittany Lincicome (#92, #63, #168, n.r., n.r.: too high). My 6th pick to miss the top 30 is my pick for biggest disappointment of the year.
23. Christina Kim (#27, #38, #30, #26, #29: 30). She just squeaked into the top 30, but always seems to have an off-year when the Solheim Cup isn't being played.
24. Shi Hyun Ahn (#55, #43, #64, #47, #49: 51.6). She only played 18 events in '08, so I suspect injuries curtailed her usually-limited LPGA schedule. Whatever the reason, she's my 7th pick to miss the top 30.
25. Angela Stanford (#9, #9, #12, #8, #7: 9). She's definitely the biggest upside surprise in my entire top 30, thanks to a torrid finish to the '08 season that included 2 wins.
26. Juli Inkster (#38, #24, #18, #32, #26: 27.6). Another vet who benefitted from high world rankings, but given her extremely limited schedule, I'll take what I can get at this point.
27. Meena Lee (#38, #58, #42, #38, #37: 42.6). My 8th pick to miss the top 30 was one of the smaller disappointments of '08, all things considered.
28. Laura Davies (#95, #68, #96, n.r., n.r.: too high). Dropped off the face of the LPGA earth in '08, but at least she has an excuse.
29. Sophie Gustafson (#28, #33, #55, #37, #34: 37.4). Her season could have been entirely different if she had held it together 1 Sunday in early June, but as it is she's my 10th pick to miss the top 30. Came pretty close to perfect on her money list position, though.
30. Inbee Park (#8, #21, #34, #13, #11: 17.4). Got that 1st win--and made it a major--but seriously slumped after it. Even so, she exceeded my expectations by a wide margin.

So who'd I miss? Ya Ni Tseng (avg. 4.4), Na Yeon Choi (13.4), Karen Stupples (17.8), Helen Alfredsson (18.4), Candie Kung (20.4), Laura Diaz (20.8), Song-Hee Kim (21), Maria Hjorth (24), and Katherine Hull (24.4) were the only other players whose average ranking was less than 30. Others who came closer to the top 30 than many of my bad picks included Ji Young Oh (32.6), Brittany Lang (33.8), Sun Young Yoo (36.4), Nicole Castrale (38.6), Catriona Matthew (39.4), Lindsey Wright (40.8), Teresa Lu (41.6), and Hee Young Park (44.8).

Using this average ranking system, here's the consensus top 30 for 2008:

1. Ochoa
2. Creamer
3. Sorenstam
4. Tseng
5. Pettersen
6. Kerr
7. Stanford
8. SH Lee
9. Jang
10. Webb
11. NY Choi
12. Ji
13. Han
14. I Park
15. Stupples
T16. JY Lee, Alfredsson
18. Kung
19. Diaz
20. SH Kim
21. A Park
22. IK Kim
23. Hjorth
24. Hull
25. Inkster
26. Pressel
27. MH Kim
28. Ueda
29. C Kim
30. Oh

FYI, here are the best of the rest (those with average rankings under 50):

31. Lang
32. J Park
33. Yoo
T34. Prammanasusdh, Gustafson
36. Castrale
37. Matthew
38. Wright
39. Lu
40. M Lee
41. Miyazato
42. HY Park

Next post I'll compare my results to everyone else's....

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