Despite giving up 8 scores of 67 or below, Priddis Greens held up pretty well for a par-71 in the 1st round of the Canadian Women's Open. Sure, 35 players broke 70, 48 went under par, and 66 shot par or better, but that still means there were more rounds over par than anything else. Putting aside those who simply didn't have it today (including, shockingly, Michelle Wie, Hee-Won Han, Christina Kim, Eun-Hee Ji, and Na Yeon Choi), the true test of how tough a golf course is are the mistakes it can cause among those playing well. By that criterion, I'd expect Priddis Greens to show its teeth over the course of the next 54 holes.
Take the hottest golfer in the world right now, Ai Miyazato. She made 6 birdies between the 6th and 15th holes, but a double on the par-3 11th coupled with a bogey on the par-3 2nd and the par-5 18th forced her to accept a 69. She wasn't alone in letting a potentially great round slip away, either. Rookie Anna Nordqvist was -6 over her 1st 10 holes, but played her last 8 on the front in +3. Senior Standout Katie Futcher was -4 with 6 holes left to play on the back, but only a walkoff bogey secured her 68. Hall of Famer Karrie Webb got it to -4 with 4 holes left to play on the front, but played them in +2. Paula Creamer was -3 at the same point, but needed a walkoff birdie to partially offset her double on the par-4 7th and match Webb's 69. Despite making 3 birdies in a row late in her round on the front, Ya Ni Tseng joined them when she bogeyed the par-3 8th and failed to birdie the par-5 9th. Brittany Lincicome made 5 birdies in her round, but a pair of doubles on the back (her 1st 9) and a late bogey dropped her to 71. Meena Lee can top that, though: even after making 7 birdies Thursday, she walked off the course with a 70. Brittany Lang also made 7 birdies but only shot a 69. So it should come as no surprise that Sophie Gustafson birdied 2 of her 1st 3 holes and 4 of her last 5 but shot--wait for it--a 69.
The fact that Angela Stanford ended up with a 70 despite making 4 birdies in 8 holes as she made the turn from the back to the front is starting to make sense now. Jane Park made 3 birdies between the 4th and 9th, but had to settle for (you guessed it) a 70, as well. Meanwhile, Kyeong Bae compressed her Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde performances over the last several weeks into contrasting 9s: a bogey-free opening 33 on the back followed by a birdieless closing 37 on the back. Kristy McPherson made 3 birdies in a 6-hole stretch on the back, but finished +2 over her last 10 holes for her 71. For Candie Kung, her 71 was the result of 2 bogeys in her last 3 holes that erased her 3-birdie bogey-free run between the 9th and 15th.
That's not to say some players didn't finish strong. Last week's winner M.J. Hur needed a walkoff eagle on the 9th and a birdie on the 5th, her next-to-last par 5, to shoot a 68, despite making 4 birdies earlier on the back in a 6-hole stretch (it was interrupted by a double and a bogey). Stacy Prammanasudh birdied her last 3 holes to finish her round on the front and post her own 8-birdie 68 (check her scorecard--she only made 1 par that side and 5 on the day!). Catriona Matthew closed with a bogey-free 32 on the front for her 68. Paige Mackenzie's matching 32 wasn't bogey-free, but she did birdie 4 of her last 5 holes on the front for her 68. Hee Young Park bounced back from a costly double on the 9th with 4 straight birdies early on the back on her way to a 32 there that also earned her a tough 68. Carin Koch bogeyed the 2nd but didn't make another mistake the rest of the way as 4 birdies between the 6th and 15th vaulted her into Club 68. Seon Hwa Lee made 3 birdies in her closing 8-hole run of bogey-free golf to post her 69. And rookie Stacy Lewis had a little bit of everything happen after an opening 35 on the front: 1st she birdied 3 in a row, then parred 2 in a row, then bogeyed 2 in a row, then birdied her last 2 for a 33 on the back that was almost something much better. But when roughly twice as many golfers let a great round get away as upgrade theirs down the stretch, you know there's something about the course they're playing that's causing that.
We'll see who if any of these golfers can go low and who else squanders opportunities tomorrow at Priddis Greens!
[Update 1 (1:11 am): LPGA.com's notes and interviews page makes it very clear that the afternoon winds had a lot to do with players' struggles out there--which makes Pettersen's and Blumenherst's mid-60s rounds all the more impressive!]
[Update 2 (1:18 am): You know what, though? A lot of the players who let low rounds slip through their fingers played in the relatively calm conditions of the morning and early afternoon. Yeah, lots of players blew up in the wind, but relatively few really squandered their scoring opportunities.]
[Update 3 (4:05 pm): Here's Hound Dog's 1st-round overview.]
Friday, September 4, 2009
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Canadian Women's Open Thursday: What's Gotten Into Anna Rawson?
Check me on this, but wasn't it just earlier today that I wrote of Anna Rawson, "she needs to get her putter going to avoid Q-School"? So far, so good, at the Canadian Women's Open: she just opened with a 9-birdie 64! Even though she was bombing it out there (averaging 266 yards off the tee), she only hit about the same number of greens (11) as her season average (.663) would lead you to expect. If making more than 6.33 birdies over normal birdie rate wasn't enough to tip you off that her putter was incandescent today, her total number of putts (24) should convince you. That's a career low on the LPGA. Way to go, Anna! (Way to overshadow Louise Stahle's lowest round ever on the LPGA, a fine 67. I think Stahle was leader in the clubhouse for about 15 seconds. As for Il Mi Chung's 67, her best round since the Corning, by comparison it seems kind of meh, eh?)
Don't look back, though. Lorena Ochoa's made 5 birdies in her last 8 holes to get to -4. She has 2 par 5s and 2 par 3s still to play on the front. And Momoko Ueda just eagled the par-5 12th to also climb to -4. So don't let your 64 be a 1-round wonder, Anna, or you'll get passed faster than you can say "Beth Bader at the Safeway"!
[Update 1 (4:40 pm): Oh ho ho! Ochoa's walkoff birdie gives her a 66. Game on!]
[Update 2 (4:42 pm): Snap! Suzann Pettersen opened with a 31 on the front.]
[Update 3 (4:46 pm): Hey there, Golf Babes, I know you read MH because of your name-check in your Ai Miyazato tribute, so be sure to change "best of the year to date" to "best of her career on the LPGA to date," ok?]
[Update 4 (11:58 pm): So Pettersen closed with a 34 to finish 1 shot behind Rawson. But Amanda Blumenherst must not have liked my "not ready for prime time" assessment in my preview--she matched Ochoa's 66. Wow!]
[Update 5 (9/4/09, 1:13 am): Check out the post-round interview with Rawson for her frank take on what's been holding her back this season. Let's see how well she stays in the present in the afternoon tomorrow.]
[Update 6 (2:53 pm): Interesting contrast in reactions by Stephanie Wei and Vince Spence, wouldn't you say?]
Don't look back, though. Lorena Ochoa's made 5 birdies in her last 8 holes to get to -4. She has 2 par 5s and 2 par 3s still to play on the front. And Momoko Ueda just eagled the par-5 12th to also climb to -4. So don't let your 64 be a 1-round wonder, Anna, or you'll get passed faster than you can say "Beth Bader at the Safeway"!
[Update 1 (4:40 pm): Oh ho ho! Ochoa's walkoff birdie gives her a 66. Game on!]
[Update 2 (4:42 pm): Snap! Suzann Pettersen opened with a 31 on the front.]
[Update 3 (4:46 pm): Hey there, Golf Babes, I know you read MH because of your name-check in your Ai Miyazato tribute, so be sure to change "best of the year to date" to "best of her career on the LPGA to date," ok?]
[Update 4 (11:58 pm): So Pettersen closed with a 34 to finish 1 shot behind Rawson. But Amanda Blumenherst must not have liked my "not ready for prime time" assessment in my preview--she matched Ochoa's 66. Wow!]
[Update 5 (9/4/09, 1:13 am): Check out the post-round interview with Rawson for her frank take on what's been holding her back this season. Let's see how well she stays in the present in the afternoon tomorrow.]
[Update 6 (2:53 pm): Interesting contrast in reactions by Stephanie Wei and Vince Spence, wouldn't you say?]
The Best of the Young Guns: Super Sophs Edition, August 2009 Edition
In addition to all the annual money list races in play at the Canadian Women's Open this week, there are career races within LPGA rookie classes and generations going on, as well. It's been awhile since I ranked the LPGA's Super Sophs, the rookie class of 2008. Let's see how they stack up as they begin competing for one of the largest purses of the season.
Simply the Best
1. Ya Ni Tseng. Win #2 finally came for her, but also coming are her generation's and rookie class's #2s, Seon Hwa Lee and Na Yeon Choi. No time like the CWO, where she's played great, to snap out of her mini-funk.
2. Na Yeon Choi. She still has not missed an LPGA cut in her career and she's been improving in her key performance stats. But she still lost ground to Tseng in 2 key categories--wins and winnings. If she's going to join the Million Dollar Club for the 2nd time in as many seasons, it's time for her to reverse that last trend.
The Contenders
3. Hee Young Park. The Rocket has begun to show some steadiness and tenacity. Look for her to break the $1M barrier in career winnings soon.
4. Momoko Ueda. I can't imagine anyone on tour who's been working harder on her game than Momo-chan, but accidents and health issues have prevented her from building on her wins on the JLPGA last season and just a few weeks ago. I can't wait to see her start playing to her potential in the States.
5. Amy Yang. Ditto for Yang, who I picked to finish #10 on tour at the end of the season. She contended on the LET during the LPGA's mid-summer vacation, but got beat by Karen Stupples, so you know she has the game and motivation to finally break through on the LPGA.
Quantum Leap Candidates
6. Shanshan Feng. Struggling mightily this season, she's still comfortably in the top 80 on the money list, but she's got to start making cuts more regularly to avoid Q-School.
7. Sandra Gal. Another player from whom I'm looking for a breakthrough, even though her stats are down from last year.
8. Eunjung Yi. Got her breakthrough win, and it was only the 2nd top 20 of her career. But I just can't believe she's for real just yet.
9. Louise Friberg. She's in a real tailspin right now, but her win last season gives her time to pull out of it and play like she's capable of again.
10. Jimin Jeong. I thought she'd be rocking the Futures Tour this season, but instead she's played well enough on the LPGA to have a shot at the top 80. It would help if she'd hit more greens.
11. Sarah Kemp. Ditto.
12. Anna Grzebien. Her buddy, Paige Mackenzie, had her breakthrough top 10 recently; I'd say it's Grzebien's turn now. It all starts with hitting more greens.
On the Bottom, Looking Up
13. Anja Monke. She was one of the hottest players in the world late last fall and into the winter, but that's ancient history now. She's gotta get her putter going if she's going to avoid Q-School.
14. Taylor Leon. Gotta start making cuts to build some momentum for Q-School.
15. Anna Rawson. Like Monke, she needs to get her putter going to avoid Q-School.
16. Carolina Llano. Having a painfully bad year after a good Q-School last December. Time to get it going again.
17. Ashleigh Simon. Early-season injuries ruined the start of her season and now she's fighting to stay in the top 125.
18. Leah Wigger. She never got it going this season, but 1 good week should get her into the top 125 and assure her entry into the final qualifying stage at Q-School.
On the Outside, Looking In (Futures Tour or worse in '09)
19. Sofie Andersson. At #19 on the Futures Tour money list, she's playing well above my expectations. But she'll still be back at Q-School--she can't make enough at Albany, even with a win, to crack the top 5.
20. Liz Janangelo. At #22 on the FT money list, she's playing a little below my expectations. Let's see how she handles Q-School.
21. Hannah Jun. At #26 on the FT money list, she's playing well below my expectations.
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot. At #48 on the FT money list, she's playing far below my expectations. Wonder why she's skipping Albany. [Update 1 (9/5/09, 1:05 am): Carl Spackler was at a FT event recently and heard a rumor that "Moo" made it past the 1st stage of JLPGA Q-School and doesn't plan to try the LPGA's in December. Will try to verify it.]
23. Nicole Hage. At #47 on the FT money list, she's playing almost exactly to my expectations.
24. Emma Cabrera-Bello. At #27 on the LET's money list, she's had an up-and-down season.
25. Hwanhee Lee. At #69 on the FT money list, she's played a little below my expectations. Another no-show at Albany.
26. Violeta Retamoza. At #89 on the FT money list, she's playing far below my expectations.
27. Chris Brady. At #122 on the FT money list, she's playing way below my expectations. Another Albany no-show.
28. Sarah Oh. Played well in Australia this winter, including a win against a pretty strong field, but hasn't competed in the States this season.
29. Amie Cochran. Have no idea where she is or what she's doing.
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff. Ditto.
For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the August ranking.
2009 LPGA Money List (rank), stroke average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone is playing this season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, and how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are the most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future.
1. Ya Ni Tseng, $918.4K (#5), 70.60 (#3), 3.75 (#2), 71.2% (#10)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $621.6K (#15), 70.91 (#12), 3.52 (#7), 69.8% (#16)
3. Hee Young Park, $443.1K (#21), 71.88 (#28), 3.31 (#21), 66.1% (#60)
4. Eunjung Yi, $263.8K (#42), 72.95 (#80), 2.86 (#74), 64.4% (#78)
5. Momoko Ueda, $200.7K (#48), 72.10 (#36), 3.04 (#43), 66.0% (#61)
6. Sandra Gal, $200.0K (#49), 72.58 (#59), 2.82 (#54), 62.0% (#105)
7. Amy Yang, $162.7K (#54), 72.00 (#34), 3.14 (#29), 67.5% (#39)
8. Anna Grzebien $137.9K (#60), 72.41 (#45), 3.09 (#59), 64.8% (#77)
9. Shanshan Feng, $107.2K (#68), 72.86 (#76), 2.98 (#49), 66.0% (#62)
10. Sarah Kemp, $79.2K (#85), 71.92 (#31), 3.57 (#68), 62.0% (#101)
11. Jimin Jeong, $73.3K (#91), 72.51 (#52), 3.23 (#87), 61.3% (#115)
12. Anna Rawson, $41.2K (#110), 73.39 (#108), 2.64 (#107), 66.3% (#52)
13. Anja Monke, $36.3K (#112), 73.13 (#88), 2.40 (#105), 68.4% (#33)
14. Louise Friberg, $34.1K (#116), 74.68 (#137), 2.63 (#92), 59.7% (#124)
15. Taylor Leon, $32.2K (#117), 73.38 (#105), 2.69 (#120), 60.0% (#123)
16. Ashleigh Simon, $27.2K (#122), 73.47 (#111), 2.85 (#97), 57.9% (#136)
17. Leah Wigger, $20.9K (#127), 73.72 (#115), 2.41 (#126), 63.0% (#90)
18. Carolina Llano, $20.5K (#128), 74.57 (#135), 2.10 (#134), 57.1% (#142)
Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events entered/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/withdrawals/disqualifications/missed cuts/finished events (rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the Super Sophs haven't been at this all too long, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who have not been exempt both years. What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now--although Thomas Atkins has posted an inflation-adjusted LPGA Career Top 50 as of the end of the 2008 season over at Hound Dog's place. In any case, I include these other ways of seeing how the Super Sophs finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. Many thanks to the LPGA for updating their 2009 Performance Chart after every event!
1. Ya Ni Tseng, $2.67M (#68), 45/1/2/11/18/31/0/0/2/43 (.956)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $1.72M (#110), 45/0/0/5/16/28/0/0/0/45 (1.000)
3. Hee Young Park, $917.8K (#193), 45/0/0/1/7/13/0/0/10/35 (.778)
4. Momoko Ueda, $614.3K (#240), 34/0/0/0/3/9/0/0/5/28 (.824)
5. Shanshan Feng, $579.9K (#248), 43/0/0/1/5/7/1/0/17/25 (.581)
6. Louise Friberg, $429.1K (#284), 41/0/1/1/3/4/0/0/22/19 (.463)
7. Sandra Gal, $381.0K (#292), 38/0/0/0/2/8/2/0/8/28 (.737)
8. Eunjung Yi, $359.0K (#353), 28/0/1/1/1/2/1/0/12/15 (.536)
9. Amy Yang, $223.5K (#490), 23/0/0/0/2/5/0/0/5/18 (.783)
10. Anna Grzebien, $177.0K (#401), 29/0/0/0/0/4/0/0/14/15 (.517)
11. Jimin Jeong, $155.2K (#418), 25/0/0/0/2/3/0/0/10/15 (.600)
12. Sarah Kemp, $152.6K (#421), 31/0/0/0/0/4/0/0/14/17 (.548)
13. Taylor Leon, $117.8K (#450), 28/0/0/0/2/4/0/0/17/11 (.393)
14. Carolina Llano, $108.5K (#464), 35/0/0/0/1/1/0/0/21/14 (.400)
15. Anna Rawson, $104.0K (#468), 26/0/0/0/1/3/0/0/17/9 (.346)
16. Anja Monke, $72.3K (#503), 18/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/8/10 (.556)
17. Ashleigh Simon, $51.7K (#541), 25/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/14/11 (.440)
18. Leah Wigger, $35.0K (#574), 18/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/12/6 (.333)
19. Liz Janangelo, $34.0K (#576), 22/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/13/9 (.409)
20. Hannah Jun, $32.0K (#581), 9/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/5 (.556)
21. Amie Cochran, $17.2K (#622), 5/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/4/1 (.200)
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, $8.6K (#668), 8/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/2 (.250)
23. Nicole Hage, $8.4K (#669), 8/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/2 (.250)
24. Chris Brady, $6.1K (#686), 4/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/2 (.500)
25. Violeta Retamoza, $2.5K (#720), 19/0/0/0/0/0/1/0/17/1 (.053)
26. Emma Cabrera-Bello, $0K (n.r.), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/0 (.000)
27. Sarah Oh, $0K (n.r.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/3/0 (.000)
28. Hwanhee Lee, $0K (n.r.), 5/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/5/0 (.000)
29. Sofie Andersson, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 8/31/09) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 8/30/09) and rank, International and Non-Member LPGA Wins (as of the end of the 2008 season): This is a way of seeing how those Super Sophs who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).
1. Ya Ni Tseng, 8.48 (#2), 69.96 (#10); 0
2. Na Yeon Choi, 3.93 (#20), 70.16 (#14); 4
3. Momoko Ueda, 3.07 (#31), 70.91 (#24); 7
4. Hee Young Park, 2.54 (#46), 71.28 (#32); 4
5. Eunjung Yi, 2.46 (#49), 73.03 (#125); 0
6. Amy Yang, 1.94 (#61), 71.40 (#38); 3
7. Sandra Gal, 1.57 (#68); 71.75 (#51); 0
8. Shanshan Feng, 1.56 (#69), 72.10 (#62); 0
9. Anna Grzebien, .89 (#112), 72.32 (#74); 0
10. Louise Friberg, .85 (#116), 74.21 (#210); 0
11. Sarah Kemp, .75 (#126), 72.85 (#112); 0
12. Jimin Jeong, .74 (#129), 73.27 (#145); 0
13. Anna Rawson, .53 (#159), 73.42 (#156); 0
14. Anja Monke, .53 (#161), 73.30 (#148); 2
15. Taylor Leon, .36 (#196), 74.24 (#213); 0
16. Ashleigh Simon, .24 (#243), 73.56 (#167); 1
17. Carolina Llano, .20 (#273), 75.07 (#280); 0
18. Sarah Oh, .16 (#299), 74.02 (n.r.); 0
19. Leah Wigger, .15 (#301), 74.72 (#253); 0
20. Emma Cabrera-Bello, .05 (#428), 74.92 (#271); 0
21. Liz Janangelo, .04 (#462), 74.79 (#259); 0
22. Nicole Hage, .03 (#484), 75.71 (#332); 0
23. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, .03 (#513), 74.31 (#230); 0
24. Hannah Jun, .03 (#523), 74.88 (#268); 0
25. Sofie Andersson, .02 (#577), 75.92 (#344); 0
26. Amie Cochran, .01 (#618), n.r.; 0
27. Hwanhee Lee, n.r., 76.33 (#383); 0
28. Violeta Retamoza, n.r., 77.25 (#430); 0
29. Chris Brady, n.r., 78.22 (#468); 0
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, n.r., n.r.; 0
Here's my schedule for the rest of the season:
September: Young Guns (post-CVS)
October: Class of 2006 (post-Korea)
November: Class of 2007 (post-LPGA Tour Championship)
December: Class of 2008 (post-Q School)
January '10: Young Guns (final 2009 ranking)
Simply the Best
1. Ya Ni Tseng. Win #2 finally came for her, but also coming are her generation's and rookie class's #2s, Seon Hwa Lee and Na Yeon Choi. No time like the CWO, where she's played great, to snap out of her mini-funk.
2. Na Yeon Choi. She still has not missed an LPGA cut in her career and she's been improving in her key performance stats. But she still lost ground to Tseng in 2 key categories--wins and winnings. If she's going to join the Million Dollar Club for the 2nd time in as many seasons, it's time for her to reverse that last trend.
The Contenders
3. Hee Young Park. The Rocket has begun to show some steadiness and tenacity. Look for her to break the $1M barrier in career winnings soon.
4. Momoko Ueda. I can't imagine anyone on tour who's been working harder on her game than Momo-chan, but accidents and health issues have prevented her from building on her wins on the JLPGA last season and just a few weeks ago. I can't wait to see her start playing to her potential in the States.
5. Amy Yang. Ditto for Yang, who I picked to finish #10 on tour at the end of the season. She contended on the LET during the LPGA's mid-summer vacation, but got beat by Karen Stupples, so you know she has the game and motivation to finally break through on the LPGA.
Quantum Leap Candidates
6. Shanshan Feng. Struggling mightily this season, she's still comfortably in the top 80 on the money list, but she's got to start making cuts more regularly to avoid Q-School.
7. Sandra Gal. Another player from whom I'm looking for a breakthrough, even though her stats are down from last year.
8. Eunjung Yi. Got her breakthrough win, and it was only the 2nd top 20 of her career. But I just can't believe she's for real just yet.
9. Louise Friberg. She's in a real tailspin right now, but her win last season gives her time to pull out of it and play like she's capable of again.
10. Jimin Jeong. I thought she'd be rocking the Futures Tour this season, but instead she's played well enough on the LPGA to have a shot at the top 80. It would help if she'd hit more greens.
11. Sarah Kemp. Ditto.
12. Anna Grzebien. Her buddy, Paige Mackenzie, had her breakthrough top 10 recently; I'd say it's Grzebien's turn now. It all starts with hitting more greens.
On the Bottom, Looking Up
13. Anja Monke. She was one of the hottest players in the world late last fall and into the winter, but that's ancient history now. She's gotta get her putter going if she's going to avoid Q-School.
14. Taylor Leon. Gotta start making cuts to build some momentum for Q-School.
15. Anna Rawson. Like Monke, she needs to get her putter going to avoid Q-School.
16. Carolina Llano. Having a painfully bad year after a good Q-School last December. Time to get it going again.
17. Ashleigh Simon. Early-season injuries ruined the start of her season and now she's fighting to stay in the top 125.
18. Leah Wigger. She never got it going this season, but 1 good week should get her into the top 125 and assure her entry into the final qualifying stage at Q-School.
On the Outside, Looking In (Futures Tour or worse in '09)
19. Sofie Andersson. At #19 on the Futures Tour money list, she's playing well above my expectations. But she'll still be back at Q-School--she can't make enough at Albany, even with a win, to crack the top 5.
20. Liz Janangelo. At #22 on the FT money list, she's playing a little below my expectations. Let's see how she handles Q-School.
21. Hannah Jun. At #26 on the FT money list, she's playing well below my expectations.
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot. At #48 on the FT money list, she's playing far below my expectations. Wonder why she's skipping Albany. [Update 1 (9/5/09, 1:05 am): Carl Spackler was at a FT event recently and heard a rumor that "Moo" made it past the 1st stage of JLPGA Q-School and doesn't plan to try the LPGA's in December. Will try to verify it.]
23. Nicole Hage. At #47 on the FT money list, she's playing almost exactly to my expectations.
24. Emma Cabrera-Bello. At #27 on the LET's money list, she's had an up-and-down season.
25. Hwanhee Lee. At #69 on the FT money list, she's played a little below my expectations. Another no-show at Albany.
26. Violeta Retamoza. At #89 on the FT money list, she's playing far below my expectations.
27. Chris Brady. At #122 on the FT money list, she's playing way below my expectations. Another Albany no-show.
28. Sarah Oh. Played well in Australia this winter, including a win against a pretty strong field, but hasn't competed in the States this season.
29. Amie Cochran. Have no idea where she is or what she's doing.
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff. Ditto.
For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the August ranking.
2009 LPGA Money List (rank), stroke average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone is playing this season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, and how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are the most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future.
1. Ya Ni Tseng, $918.4K (#5), 70.60 (#3), 3.75 (#2), 71.2% (#10)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $621.6K (#15), 70.91 (#12), 3.52 (#7), 69.8% (#16)
3. Hee Young Park, $443.1K (#21), 71.88 (#28), 3.31 (#21), 66.1% (#60)
4. Eunjung Yi, $263.8K (#42), 72.95 (#80), 2.86 (#74), 64.4% (#78)
5. Momoko Ueda, $200.7K (#48), 72.10 (#36), 3.04 (#43), 66.0% (#61)
6. Sandra Gal, $200.0K (#49), 72.58 (#59), 2.82 (#54), 62.0% (#105)
7. Amy Yang, $162.7K (#54), 72.00 (#34), 3.14 (#29), 67.5% (#39)
8. Anna Grzebien $137.9K (#60), 72.41 (#45), 3.09 (#59), 64.8% (#77)
9. Shanshan Feng, $107.2K (#68), 72.86 (#76), 2.98 (#49), 66.0% (#62)
10. Sarah Kemp, $79.2K (#85), 71.92 (#31), 3.57 (#68), 62.0% (#101)
11. Jimin Jeong, $73.3K (#91), 72.51 (#52), 3.23 (#87), 61.3% (#115)
12. Anna Rawson, $41.2K (#110), 73.39 (#108), 2.64 (#107), 66.3% (#52)
13. Anja Monke, $36.3K (#112), 73.13 (#88), 2.40 (#105), 68.4% (#33)
14. Louise Friberg, $34.1K (#116), 74.68 (#137), 2.63 (#92), 59.7% (#124)
15. Taylor Leon, $32.2K (#117), 73.38 (#105), 2.69 (#120), 60.0% (#123)
16. Ashleigh Simon, $27.2K (#122), 73.47 (#111), 2.85 (#97), 57.9% (#136)
17. Leah Wigger, $20.9K (#127), 73.72 (#115), 2.41 (#126), 63.0% (#90)
18. Carolina Llano, $20.5K (#128), 74.57 (#135), 2.10 (#134), 57.1% (#142)
Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events entered/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/withdrawals/disqualifications/missed cuts/finished events (rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the Super Sophs haven't been at this all too long, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who have not been exempt both years. What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now--although Thomas Atkins has posted an inflation-adjusted LPGA Career Top 50 as of the end of the 2008 season over at Hound Dog's place. In any case, I include these other ways of seeing how the Super Sophs finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. Many thanks to the LPGA for updating their 2009 Performance Chart after every event!
1. Ya Ni Tseng, $2.67M (#68), 45/1/2/11/18/31/0/0/2/43 (.956)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $1.72M (#110), 45/0/0/5/16/28/0/0/0/45 (1.000)
3. Hee Young Park, $917.8K (#193), 45/0/0/1/7/13/0/0/10/35 (.778)
4. Momoko Ueda, $614.3K (#240), 34/0/0/0/3/9/0/0/5/28 (.824)
5. Shanshan Feng, $579.9K (#248), 43/0/0/1/5/7/1/0/17/25 (.581)
6. Louise Friberg, $429.1K (#284), 41/0/1/1/3/4/0/0/22/19 (.463)
7. Sandra Gal, $381.0K (#292), 38/0/0/0/2/8/2/0/8/28 (.737)
8. Eunjung Yi, $359.0K (#353), 28/0/1/1/1/2/1/0/12/15 (.536)
9. Amy Yang, $223.5K (#490), 23/0/0/0/2/5/0/0/5/18 (.783)
10. Anna Grzebien, $177.0K (#401), 29/0/0/0/0/4/0/0/14/15 (.517)
11. Jimin Jeong, $155.2K (#418), 25/0/0/0/2/3/0/0/10/15 (.600)
12. Sarah Kemp, $152.6K (#421), 31/0/0/0/0/4/0/0/14/17 (.548)
13. Taylor Leon, $117.8K (#450), 28/0/0/0/2/4/0/0/17/11 (.393)
14. Carolina Llano, $108.5K (#464), 35/0/0/0/1/1/0/0/21/14 (.400)
15. Anna Rawson, $104.0K (#468), 26/0/0/0/1/3/0/0/17/9 (.346)
16. Anja Monke, $72.3K (#503), 18/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/8/10 (.556)
17. Ashleigh Simon, $51.7K (#541), 25/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/14/11 (.440)
18. Leah Wigger, $35.0K (#574), 18/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/12/6 (.333)
19. Liz Janangelo, $34.0K (#576), 22/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/13/9 (.409)
20. Hannah Jun, $32.0K (#581), 9/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/5 (.556)
21. Amie Cochran, $17.2K (#622), 5/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/4/1 (.200)
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, $8.6K (#668), 8/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/2 (.250)
23. Nicole Hage, $8.4K (#669), 8/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/2 (.250)
24. Chris Brady, $6.1K (#686), 4/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/2 (.500)
25. Violeta Retamoza, $2.5K (#720), 19/0/0/0/0/0/1/0/17/1 (.053)
26. Emma Cabrera-Bello, $0K (n.r.), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/0 (.000)
27. Sarah Oh, $0K (n.r.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/3/0 (.000)
28. Hwanhee Lee, $0K (n.r.), 5/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/5/0 (.000)
29. Sofie Andersson, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 8/31/09) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 8/30/09) and rank, International and Non-Member LPGA Wins (as of the end of the 2008 season): This is a way of seeing how those Super Sophs who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).
1. Ya Ni Tseng, 8.48 (#2), 69.96 (#10); 0
2. Na Yeon Choi, 3.93 (#20), 70.16 (#14); 4
3. Momoko Ueda, 3.07 (#31), 70.91 (#24); 7
4. Hee Young Park, 2.54 (#46), 71.28 (#32); 4
5. Eunjung Yi, 2.46 (#49), 73.03 (#125); 0
6. Amy Yang, 1.94 (#61), 71.40 (#38); 3
7. Sandra Gal, 1.57 (#68); 71.75 (#51); 0
8. Shanshan Feng, 1.56 (#69), 72.10 (#62); 0
9. Anna Grzebien, .89 (#112), 72.32 (#74); 0
10. Louise Friberg, .85 (#116), 74.21 (#210); 0
11. Sarah Kemp, .75 (#126), 72.85 (#112); 0
12. Jimin Jeong, .74 (#129), 73.27 (#145); 0
13. Anna Rawson, .53 (#159), 73.42 (#156); 0
14. Anja Monke, .53 (#161), 73.30 (#148); 2
15. Taylor Leon, .36 (#196), 74.24 (#213); 0
16. Ashleigh Simon, .24 (#243), 73.56 (#167); 1
17. Carolina Llano, .20 (#273), 75.07 (#280); 0
18. Sarah Oh, .16 (#299), 74.02 (n.r.); 0
19. Leah Wigger, .15 (#301), 74.72 (#253); 0
20. Emma Cabrera-Bello, .05 (#428), 74.92 (#271); 0
21. Liz Janangelo, .04 (#462), 74.79 (#259); 0
22. Nicole Hage, .03 (#484), 75.71 (#332); 0
23. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, .03 (#513), 74.31 (#230); 0
24. Hannah Jun, .03 (#523), 74.88 (#268); 0
25. Sofie Andersson, .02 (#577), 75.92 (#344); 0
26. Amie Cochran, .01 (#618), n.r.; 0
27. Hwanhee Lee, n.r., 76.33 (#383); 0
28. Violeta Retamoza, n.r., 77.25 (#430); 0
29. Chris Brady, n.r., 78.22 (#468); 0
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, n.r., n.r.; 0
Here's my schedule for the rest of the season:
September: Young Guns (post-CVS)
October: Class of 2006 (post-Korea)
November: Class of 2007 (post-LPGA Tour Championship)
December: Class of 2008 (post-Q School)
January '10: Young Guns (final 2009 ranking)
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Canadian Women's Open Pairings
The Canadian Women's Open organizers must have loved the Solheim Cup. Consider the following pairings for tomorrow's opening round:
Kinda cool to put teammates together like that. Also nice of them to put recent Solheim Cuppers with former ones:
Lots of stories to share if they have the inclination to chat while one of the season's biggest purses is at stake. As far as I can tell, though, the only Solheim Cup rivals they put together were Anna Nordqvist and Brittany Lang, off the 10th at 8:50 am. I also liked the way they sprinkled current and former Solheim Cuppers among those not eligible to compete in it, as for instance
But the pairings I'd be most interested in following, are, in order:
Here are my picks for top sleeper pairings:
A lot of talent there, even if injuries and slumps have hidden it.
Most curious decision is putting the top-ranked Canadian in the tournament, Alena Sharp, in the 1st group off the 10th at 7:20 am. Ouch! Moira Dunn must be an honorary Canadian--she's going off 2 groups later, paired with Kira Meixner and Amber Prange. Hopefully she'll show those Futures Tour regulars a thing or 2 about getting it done in the big leagues. At #82 on the money list, Moira needs a big paycheck to have a chance of qualifying for the Asian swing.
It really is amazing how many different races within races there are in a single late-summer tournament--for the top of the money list, to join the Million Dollar Club, to qualify for the Samsung World Championship, to get inside the top 80, or 100, or 125.... One good week can make a huge difference in a golfer's season--and as Eunjung Yi and M.J. Hur have discovered, what a gigantic difference a great week can make in one's career! Good luck to everyone, but I'll be rooting for Ai-sama, the Stone Buddha, Inky, and Moira, as usual.
[Update 1 (5:33 pm): After all the weird hometown off-the-course mishaps Paige Mackenzie had to deal with last week (thanks to Stephanie Wei for the lowdown on them!), it's a good thing the CWO tournament organizers cut her a break and have her going off at a relatively late 8 am starting time tomorrow. Just in case something happens on the way to the course, you know?]
[Update 2 (8:48 pm): Here's hoping Momoko Ueda is completely over the nausea and stomach troubles that held her back in Portland, as she wrote in her blog last week. I'd really love to see all her hard work this season start paying off!]
1st tee, 12:10 PM
Suzann Pettersen
Helen Alfredsson
Sophie Gustafson
1st tee, 12:40 PM
Cristie Kerr
Juli Inkster
Christina Kim
10th tee, 9:00 AM
Angela Stanford
Paula Creamer
Brittany Lincicome
Kinda cool to put teammates together like that. Also nice of them to put recent Solheim Cuppers with former ones:
1st tee, 12:50 PM
Natalie Gulbis
Meg Mallon
Ji-Yai Shin
10th tee, 12:40 PM
Pat Hurst
Kristy McPherson
Jee Young Lee
Lots of stories to share if they have the inclination to chat while one of the season's biggest purses is at stake. As far as I can tell, though, the only Solheim Cup rivals they put together were Anna Nordqvist and Brittany Lang, off the 10th at 8:50 am. I also liked the way they sprinkled current and former Solheim Cuppers among those not eligible to compete in it, as for instance
1st tee, 9:20 AM
Eunjung Yi
Nicole Castrale
Sun Young Yoo
1st tee, 12:20 PM
Lorie Kane
Morgan Pressel
Katherine Hull
10th tee, 9:10 AM
Catriona Matthew
Lorena Ochoa
Meena Lee
10th tee, 12:20 PM
Stacy Prammanasudh
Lindsey Wright
Song-Hee Kim
10th tee, 12:50 PM
Kyeong Bae
M.J. Hur
Maria Hjorth
But the pairings I'd be most interested in following, are, in order:
1st tee, 12:30 PM
Eun-Hee Ji
Ai Miyazato
Michelle Wie
10th tee, 8:40 AM
In-Kyung Kim
Ya Ni Tseng
Laura Davies
10th tee, 12:30 PM
Na Yeon Choi
Jeong Jang
Young Kim
1st tee, 8:40 AM
Louise Friberg
Seon Hwa Lee
Candie Kung
1st tee, 9:10 AM
Momoko Ueda
Liselotte Neumann
Hee Young Park
10th tee, 9:20 AM
Karrie Webb
Rachel Hetherington
Se Ri Pak
10th tee, 12:10 PM
Hee-Won Han
Wendy Ward
Leta Lindley
Here are my picks for top sleeper pairings:
1st tee, 7:50 AM
Katie Futcher
Hye Jung Choi
Jane Park
10th tee, 1:50 PM
Shi Hyun Ahn
Leah Wigger
Angela Park
A lot of talent there, even if injuries and slumps have hidden it.
Most curious decision is putting the top-ranked Canadian in the tournament, Alena Sharp, in the 1st group off the 10th at 7:20 am. Ouch! Moira Dunn must be an honorary Canadian--she's going off 2 groups later, paired with Kira Meixner and Amber Prange. Hopefully she'll show those Futures Tour regulars a thing or 2 about getting it done in the big leagues. At #82 on the money list, Moira needs a big paycheck to have a chance of qualifying for the Asian swing.
It really is amazing how many different races within races there are in a single late-summer tournament--for the top of the money list, to join the Million Dollar Club, to qualify for the Samsung World Championship, to get inside the top 80, or 100, or 125.... One good week can make a huge difference in a golfer's season--and as Eunjung Yi and M.J. Hur have discovered, what a gigantic difference a great week can make in one's career! Good luck to everyone, but I'll be rooting for Ai-sama, the Stone Buddha, Inky, and Moira, as usual.
[Update 1 (5:33 pm): After all the weird hometown off-the-course mishaps Paige Mackenzie had to deal with last week (thanks to Stephanie Wei for the lowdown on them!), it's a good thing the CWO tournament organizers cut her a break and have her going off at a relatively late 8 am starting time tomorrow. Just in case something happens on the way to the course, you know?]
[Update 2 (8:48 pm): Here's hoping Momoko Ueda is completely over the nausea and stomach troubles that held her back in Portland, as she wrote in her blog last week. I'd really love to see all her hard work this season start paying off!]
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Canadian Women's Open Preview/Predictions
The last time the Canadian Women's Open was held in Alberta (way back in 2007), Edmonton was the host city and a promising teenage golfer who had recently turned professional and was listed as "Ya-Ni Tseng" got a surprise top 10. Last year in Ottawa, "Yani Tseng" was in a great position to win heading into the final round, but finished in 3rd after Katherine Hull (whom she had tied the previous year) beat her by 8 shots on Sunday. This year, the player I stubbornly continue to refer to as Ya Ni Tseng returns to Alberta in a little bit of a funk--the best finish in her last 4 events is a T20 at the Women's British Open and she's broken 70 only once in that 13-round stretch--but is hoping that Calgary's Priddis Greens course, host of the 1999 du Maurier Classic, will treat her kindly. The course is more likely to do so than her fellow competitors, including a large contingent of prominent Futures Tour players who are skipping its season-ending event because they are too far down the money list to get an LPGA card, even with a win in Albany.
Of course, Tseng's chief challengers are not likely to be Amanda Blumenherst or Maria Hernandez, who had great collegiate careers but are not quite ready to be prime time players. I believe the following players are the most likely to contend this week on a course that strikes me as Alberta's answer to Evian:
1. Miyazato Ai
2. Pettersen
3. Wie
4. Kerr
5. Tseng
6. Kim, Christina
7. Stanford
8. Ochoa
9. Kim Song-Hee
10. Kim In-Kyung
11. Lee Seon Hwa
12. Shin Ji-Yai
Alts: Hull, Jang Jeong, Webb
I'm particularly excited about the live streaming video schedule, not least because I got to watch the Safeway Classic's home stretch last weekend. With only 2 players with 2 wins on the LPGA this season, and neither playing particularly well lately, there's a great chance this week for the 14 1-time winners to put themselves in the thick of the Player of the Year race, or for one of the LPGA's best players without a member win to join them by taking victory at one of the largest-purse events on the schedule.
[Update 1 (8:42 pm): Here are Hound Dog's Hot 20 and tournament preview.]
[Update 2 (9/2/09, 5:15 am): Here's Jamie RS's preview.]
Of course, Tseng's chief challengers are not likely to be Amanda Blumenherst or Maria Hernandez, who had great collegiate careers but are not quite ready to be prime time players. I believe the following players are the most likely to contend this week on a course that strikes me as Alberta's answer to Evian:
1. Miyazato Ai
2. Pettersen
3. Wie
4. Kerr
5. Tseng
6. Kim, Christina
7. Stanford
8. Ochoa
9. Kim Song-Hee
10. Kim In-Kyung
11. Lee Seon Hwa
12. Shin Ji-Yai
Alts: Hull, Jang Jeong, Webb
I'm particularly excited about the live streaming video schedule, not least because I got to watch the Safeway Classic's home stretch last weekend. With only 2 players with 2 wins on the LPGA this season, and neither playing particularly well lately, there's a great chance this week for the 14 1-time winners to put themselves in the thick of the Player of the Year race, or for one of the LPGA's best players without a member win to join them by taking victory at one of the largest-purse events on the schedule.
[Update 1 (8:42 pm): Here are Hound Dog's Hot 20 and tournament preview.]
[Update 2 (9/2/09, 5:15 am): Here's Jamie RS's preview.]
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