Thursday, September 3, 2009

The Best of the Young Guns: Super Sophs Edition, August 2009 Edition

In addition to all the annual money list races in play at the Canadian Women's Open this week, there are career races within LPGA rookie classes and generations going on, as well. It's been awhile since I ranked the LPGA's Super Sophs, the rookie class of 2008. Let's see how they stack up as they begin competing for one of the largest purses of the season.

Simply the Best

1. Ya Ni Tseng. Win #2 finally came for her, but also coming are her generation's and rookie class's #2s, Seon Hwa Lee and Na Yeon Choi. No time like the CWO, where she's played great, to snap out of her mini-funk.
2. Na Yeon Choi. She still has not missed an LPGA cut in her career and she's been improving in her key performance stats. But she still lost ground to Tseng in 2 key categories--wins and winnings. If she's going to join the Million Dollar Club for the 2nd time in as many seasons, it's time for her to reverse that last trend.

The Contenders
3. Hee Young Park. The Rocket has begun to show some steadiness and tenacity. Look for her to break the $1M barrier in career winnings soon.
4. Momoko Ueda. I can't imagine anyone on tour who's been working harder on her game than Momo-chan, but accidents and health issues have prevented her from building on her wins on the JLPGA last season and just a few weeks ago. I can't wait to see her start playing to her potential in the States.
5. Amy Yang. Ditto for Yang, who I picked to finish #10 on tour at the end of the season. She contended on the LET during the LPGA's mid-summer vacation, but got beat by Karen Stupples, so you know she has the game and motivation to finally break through on the LPGA.

Quantum Leap Candidates
6. Shanshan Feng. Struggling mightily this season, she's still comfortably in the top 80 on the money list, but she's got to start making cuts more regularly to avoid Q-School.
7. Sandra Gal. Another player from whom I'm looking for a breakthrough, even though her stats are down from last year.
8. Eunjung Yi. Got her breakthrough win, and it was only the 2nd top 20 of her career. But I just can't believe she's for real just yet.
9. Louise Friberg. She's in a real tailspin right now, but her win last season gives her time to pull out of it and play like she's capable of again.
10. Jimin Jeong. I thought she'd be rocking the Futures Tour this season, but instead she's played well enough on the LPGA to have a shot at the top 80. It would help if she'd hit more greens.
11. Sarah Kemp. Ditto.
12. Anna Grzebien. Her buddy, Paige Mackenzie, had her breakthrough top 10 recently; I'd say it's Grzebien's turn now. It all starts with hitting more greens.

On the Bottom, Looking Up
13. Anja Monke. She was one of the hottest players in the world late last fall and into the winter, but that's ancient history now. She's gotta get her putter going if she's going to avoid Q-School.
14. Taylor Leon. Gotta start making cuts to build some momentum for Q-School.
15. Anna Rawson. Like Monke, she needs to get her putter going to avoid Q-School.
16. Carolina Llano. Having a painfully bad year after a good Q-School last December. Time to get it going again.
17. Ashleigh Simon. Early-season injuries ruined the start of her season and now she's fighting to stay in the top 125.
18. Leah Wigger. She never got it going this season, but 1 good week should get her into the top 125 and assure her entry into the final qualifying stage at Q-School.

On the Outside, Looking In (Futures Tour or worse in '09)
19. Sofie Andersson. At #19 on the Futures Tour money list, she's playing well above my expectations. But she'll still be back at Q-School--she can't make enough at Albany, even with a win, to crack the top 5.
20. Liz Janangelo. At #22 on the FT money list, she's playing a little below my expectations. Let's see how she handles Q-School.
21. Hannah Jun. At #26 on the FT money list, she's playing well below my expectations.
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot. At #48 on the FT money list, she's playing far below my expectations. Wonder why she's skipping Albany. [Update 1 (9/5/09, 1:05 am): Carl Spackler was at a FT event recently and heard a rumor that "Moo" made it past the 1st stage of JLPGA Q-School and doesn't plan to try the LPGA's in December. Will try to verify it.]
23. Nicole Hage. At #47 on the FT money list, she's playing almost exactly to my expectations.
24. Emma Cabrera-Bello. At #27 on the LET's money list, she's had an up-and-down season.
25. Hwanhee Lee. At #69 on the FT money list, she's played a little below my expectations. Another no-show at Albany.
26. Violeta Retamoza. At #89 on the FT money list, she's playing far below my expectations.
27. Chris Brady. At #122 on the FT money list, she's playing way below my expectations. Another Albany no-show.
28. Sarah Oh. Played well in Australia this winter, including a win against a pretty strong field, but hasn't competed in the States this season.
29. Amie Cochran. Have no idea where she is or what she's doing.
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff. Ditto.

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the August ranking.

2009 LPGA Money List (rank), stroke average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone is playing this season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, and how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are the most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future.

1. Ya Ni Tseng, $918.4K (#5), 70.60 (#3), 3.75 (#2), 71.2% (#10)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $621.6K (#15), 70.91 (#12), 3.52 (#7), 69.8% (#16)
3. Hee Young Park, $443.1K (#21), 71.88 (#28), 3.31 (#21), 66.1% (#60)
4. Eunjung Yi, $263.8K (#42), 72.95 (#80), 2.86 (#74), 64.4% (#78)
5. Momoko Ueda, $200.7K (#48), 72.10 (#36), 3.04 (#43), 66.0% (#61)
6. Sandra Gal, $200.0K (#49), 72.58 (#59), 2.82 (#54), 62.0% (#105)
7. Amy Yang, $162.7K (#54), 72.00 (#34), 3.14 (#29), 67.5% (#39)
8. Anna Grzebien $137.9K (#60), 72.41 (#45), 3.09 (#59), 64.8% (#77)
9. Shanshan Feng, $107.2K (#68), 72.86 (#76), 2.98 (#49), 66.0% (#62)
10. Sarah Kemp, $79.2K (#85), 71.92 (#31), 3.57 (#68), 62.0% (#101)
11. Jimin Jeong, $73.3K (#91), 72.51 (#52), 3.23 (#87), 61.3% (#115)
12. Anna Rawson, $41.2K (#110), 73.39 (#108), 2.64 (#107), 66.3% (#52)
13. Anja Monke, $36.3K (#112), 73.13 (#88), 2.40 (#105), 68.4% (#33)
14. Louise Friberg, $34.1K (#116), 74.68 (#137), 2.63 (#92), 59.7% (#124)
15. Taylor Leon, $32.2K (#117), 73.38 (#105), 2.69 (#120), 60.0% (#123)
16. Ashleigh Simon, $27.2K (#122), 73.47 (#111), 2.85 (#97), 57.9% (#136)
17. Leah Wigger, $20.9K (#127), 73.72 (#115), 2.41 (#126), 63.0% (#90)
18. Carolina Llano, $20.5K (#128), 74.57 (#135), 2.10 (#134), 57.1% (#142)

Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events entered/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/withdrawals/disqualifications/missed cuts/finished events (rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the Super Sophs haven't been at this all too long, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who have not been exempt both years. What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now--although Thomas Atkins has posted an inflation-adjusted LPGA Career Top 50 as of the end of the 2008 season over at Hound Dog's place. In any case, I include these other ways of seeing how the Super Sophs finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. Many thanks to the LPGA for updating their 2009 Performance Chart after every event!

1. Ya Ni Tseng, $2.67M (#68), 45/1/2/11/18/31/0/0/2/43 (.956)
2. Na Yeon Choi, $1.72M (#110), 45/0/0/5/16/28/0/0/0/45 (1.000)
3. Hee Young Park, $917.8K (#193), 45/0/0/1/7/13/0/0/10/35 (.778)
4. Momoko Ueda, $614.3K (#240), 34/0/0/0/3/9/0/0/5/28 (.824)
5. Shanshan Feng, $579.9K (#248), 43/0/0/1/5/7/1/0/17/25 (.581)
6. Louise Friberg, $429.1K (#284), 41/0/1/1/3/4/0/0/22/19 (.463)
7. Sandra Gal, $381.0K (#292), 38/0/0/0/2/8/2/0/8/28 (.737)
8. Eunjung Yi, $359.0K (#353), 28/0/1/1/1/2/1/0/12/15 (.536)
9. Amy Yang, $223.5K (#490), 23/0/0/0/2/5/0/0/5/18 (.783)
10. Anna Grzebien, $177.0K (#401), 29/0/0/0/0/4/0/0/14/15 (.517)
11. Jimin Jeong, $155.2K (#418), 25/0/0/0/2/3/0/0/10/15 (.600)
12. Sarah Kemp, $152.6K (#421), 31/0/0/0/0/4/0/0/14/17 (.548)
13. Taylor Leon, $117.8K (#450), 28/0/0/0/2/4/0/0/17/11 (.393)
14. Carolina Llano, $108.5K (#464), 35/0/0/0/1/1/0/0/21/14 (.400)
15. Anna Rawson, $104.0K (#468), 26/0/0/0/1/3/0/0/17/9 (.346)
16. Anja Monke, $72.3K (#503), 18/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/8/10 (.556)
17. Ashleigh Simon, $51.7K (#541), 25/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/14/11 (.440)
18. Leah Wigger, $35.0K (#574), 18/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/12/6 (.333)
19. Liz Janangelo, $34.0K (#576), 22/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/13/9 (.409)
20. Hannah Jun, $32.0K (#581), 9/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/4/5 (.556)
21. Amie Cochran, $17.2K (#622), 5/0/0/0/0/1/0/0/4/1 (.200)
22. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, $8.6K (#668), 8/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/2 (.250)
23. Nicole Hage, $8.4K (#669), 8/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/6/2 (.250)
24. Chris Brady, $6.1K (#686), 4/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/2 (.500)
25. Violeta Retamoza, $2.5K (#720), 19/0/0/0/0/0/1/0/17/1 (.053)
26. Emma Cabrera-Bello, $0K (n.r.), 2/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/2/0 (.000)
27. Sarah Oh, $0K (n.r.), 3/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/3/0 (.000)
28. Hwanhee Lee, $0K (n.r.), 5/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/5/0 (.000)
29. Sofie Andersson, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, $0K (n.a.), 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0 (.000)

Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 8/31/09) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 8/30/09) and rank, International and Non-Member LPGA Wins (as of the end of the 2008 season): This is a way of seeing how those Super Sophs who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Ya Ni Tseng, 8.48 (#2), 69.96 (#10); 0
2. Na Yeon Choi, 3.93 (#20), 70.16 (#14); 4
3. Momoko Ueda, 3.07 (#31), 70.91 (#24); 7
4. Hee Young Park, 2.54 (#46), 71.28 (#32); 4
5. Eunjung Yi, 2.46 (#49), 73.03 (#125); 0
6. Amy Yang, 1.94 (#61), 71.40 (#38); 3
7. Sandra Gal, 1.57 (#68); 71.75 (#51); 0
8. Shanshan Feng, 1.56 (#69), 72.10 (#62); 0
9. Anna Grzebien, .89 (#112), 72.32 (#74); 0
10. Louise Friberg, .85 (#116), 74.21 (#210); 0
11. Sarah Kemp, .75 (#126), 72.85 (#112); 0
12. Jimin Jeong, .74 (#129), 73.27 (#145); 0
13. Anna Rawson, .53 (#159), 73.42 (#156); 0
14. Anja Monke, .53 (#161), 73.30 (#148); 2
15. Taylor Leon, .36 (#196), 74.24 (#213); 0
16. Ashleigh Simon, .24 (#243), 73.56 (#167); 1
17. Carolina Llano, .20 (#273), 75.07 (#280); 0
18. Sarah Oh, .16 (#299), 74.02 (n.r.); 0
19. Leah Wigger, .15 (#301), 74.72 (#253); 0
20. Emma Cabrera-Bello, .05 (#428), 74.92 (#271); 0
21. Liz Janangelo, .04 (#462), 74.79 (#259); 0
22. Nicole Hage, .03 (#484), 75.71 (#332); 0
23. Onnarin Sattayabanphot, .03 (#513), 74.31 (#230); 0
24. Hannah Jun, .03 (#523), 74.88 (#268); 0
25. Sofie Andersson, .02 (#577), 75.92 (#344); 0
26. Amie Cochran, .01 (#618), n.r.; 0
27. Hwanhee Lee, n.r., 76.33 (#383); 0
28. Violeta Retamoza, n.r., 77.25 (#430); 0
29. Chris Brady, n.r., 78.22 (#468); 0
30. Sukjin Lee Wuesthoff, n.r., n.r.; 0

Here's my schedule for the rest of the season:

September: Young Guns (post-CVS)
October: Class of 2006 (post-Korea)
November: Class of 2007 (post-LPGA Tour Championship)
December: Class of 2008 (post-Q School)
January '10: Young Guns (final 2009 ranking)

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