Gambare, Ai-chan!

Ai Miyazato birdied the par-4 18th at the Royal Pines Resort to pull into a tie for 13th at -5, 3 shots behind ANZ Ladies Masters co-leaders Karrie Webb, Hyun Ju Shin, and Tamie Durdin. In her first rounds of competitive golf since the ADT Championship in mid-November, Ai-chan has gotten off to slow starts, missing a lot of fairways early, but has come back with solid approach shots and fantastic putting. If she can improve her driving accuracy, stay out of the sand (she's only 1 of 4 in sand saves so far), and take better advantage of the par 5s Sunday (she's only birdied 1 and had to save par on a couple), she has a chance to keep pace with KLPGA superstar Ji-Yai Shin and LET legend Laura Davies (also at -5), pick up ground on bounce-back Class of '06ers Louise Stahle and Virada Nirapathpongporn (who missed the cut badly last week but stand at -6 now), and maybe even catch the much-heralded LPGA rookie Ya Ni Tseng (-7). Whether Ai-chan has it in her this early in the season to contend for the win on the back 9 tomorrow is an open question, but a top 10 is a strong possibility and a top 5 is not out of the question.

OK, that's the fan in me talking. Here are some stats that throw a little cold water on my optimism. Back in her rookie year, Ai-chan averaged 253 yards off the tee and hit over 75% of her fairways. Last year, as a result of a relatively minor leg injury sustained while duelling with Seon Hwa Lee in the final round of the HSBC Women's World Match Play Championship and the resulting problems with her swing and her confidence for the rest of the season, those numbers plunged to 240 yards and 62%. Even hitting her 3-wood almost exclusively off the tee by the end of the 2007 season, that is, she was still missing lots of fairways, often badly, with the obvious effects on her ability to hit greens and get birdie chances (note how her GIR and PPGIR rank fell from 28th/16th to 122nd/30th and her absolute number of birdies declined). What makes me think she's not yet all the way back is that her driving stats resemble 2007's more than 2006's: through two rounds, she was averaging roughly 235 yards off the tee and hitting only about 54% of her fairways.

There will be something like 20 golfers at -5 or better by the end of Saturday's round. So I'll be happy with a top 20 from Ai-chan, excited by a top 10, ecstatic at a top 3, and astounded at a win. There's a lot that's going to have to fall into place for her have a chance to contend when most likely she's still not pulling the driver out of the bag all that often. I'm hoping that Hound Dog or the other Seoul Sisters tournament trackers can watch the Golf Channel coverage and let me know if my educated guesses about Ai-chan's game are on target. The day when we'll be able to afford cable tv is looking more and more distant!