Tuesday, July 1, 2008

The Best of the Young Guns: Top Super Sophs, June 2008

It's definitely an interesting time to be ranking the Super Sophs in particular and the Young Guns in general. Before the start of the season, I went out on a limb and predicted that we'll start seeing the best of them play a major role in the Player of the Year race, and I was duly impressed by Inbee Park when I watched her play the last few holes with Ai Miyazato at the Wegmans a couple of Saturdays ago, but even I have to admit to being blown away by Park's and Eun-Hee Ji's back-to-back wins. The Super Sophs have now tied the Class of 2008 in victories this season and overall majors, but both still trail the Junior Mints by 2 total wins. I wonder who will be next in the Young Gun victory parade? Here are the top Super Soph prospects.

Simply the Best

1. Inbee Park: From #5 to #1 in 3 months--that's what getting hot will do for you in this class. That and becoming the youngest winner in U.S. Women's Open history! She's been riding her putter thus far this season; if her ballstriking doesn't improve, she's vulnerable to runs from her peers.
2. Eun-Hee Ji: Her win at the Wegmans shouldn't have been all that surprising, given her 4 victories on the KLPGA and her gaining exempt status in only a handful of starts as an LPGA rookie. If she can putt like she did at Locust Hill the rest of the season, she'll be the #1 in her class by its end. But she needs to make more birdies more consistently just to hold steady.
3. Angela Park: The former #1 has given her peers a lot of help the past few months, but hopefully her T3 at the Open means her putter is coming back online for her. She needs something to go right for her--she's dropped all the way from #9 to #26 in my Best of the LPGA ranking system in the past 6 months.

The Contenders

4. In-Kyung Kim: Like Angela Park, this former #2 in her class had a great Open, but what a long drought between her top 10 at the HSBC Women's Champions and her feats at Interlachen. I've heard injuries had something to do with it, so let's hope she's healthy for the rest of the season.
5. Song-Hee Kim: The second-highest-ranked Super Soph in my Best of the LPGA system, she would be at the top of her class if she hadn't let that 1 bad round back into her most recent tournaments.
6. Jane Park: Still not making as many birdies or cuts as a player of her obvious talents ought to be, but her accomplishments in her 1st full season on tour show how much potential the current leader in the "best career-to-be among the LPGA's Parks" Waggle Room poll has.

Quantum Leap Candidates

7. Na On Min: Struggling by the standards she set for herself last season when she won her card as a non-exempt player, but a lock to win her card again.
8. Ji Young Oh: One of the nice surprises of her class this season. She's shown she can go low and put herself in contention, but she still has a tendency to blow up on Sundays.
9. Jin Joo Hong: This 2-time KLPGA winner (including, like Junior Mint Jee Young Lee, a surprise win at the Asian Swing's joint KLPGA-LPGA event) definitely has the potential to excel on the LPGA, but she needs to make more birdies if she plans to keep her card.
10. Kristy McPherson: Now that this non-exempt player has locked up her card for 2009, she can focus on improving her putting and getting more birdies.
11. Irene Cho: Another non-exempt player who locked up her card for 2009, she's been less consistent than McPherson but got a top 10 at the LPGA Championship. Now she can get to work on her ballstriking.
12. Charlotte Mayorkas: Slumping badly lately, but can still keep her card if her ballstriking and putting come around....

On the Bottom Looking Up

13. Becky Lucidi: One of the longest drivers on tour has shown some signs that she belongs on it, but she needs to make more cuts in the tournaments she gets into if she wants to join McPherson and Cho on the LPGA next season.
14. Sophie Giquel: Definitely in danger of losing her card.
15. Su A Kim: Ditto.
16. Seo-Jae Lee: A lock to lose her card unless she improves her ballstriking.

On the Outside Looking In

17. Paige Mackenzie: She's playing the best of the non-exempt players in this category, but still not well enough to avoid signing up for as many Futures Tour events as soon as she possibly can.
18. Sarah Lynn Sargent: Ditto, for the 2nd part, at least.
19. Cindy Pasechnik: Ditto.
20. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke: Ditto.

For your reference--and mine--here are the stats on which I'm basing the June ranking.

2008 LPGA Money List (rank), stroke average (rank), birdies per round average (rank [in total birdies]), greens in regulation rate (rank): I focus on four key indicators of how well someone is playing this season--how much money they've made, how they've scored, how many birdies they've averaged per round, and how many greens they've hit in regulation on average per round, plus how they rank in each category (except for birdies, which LPGA.com ranks by total and not by average). I figure I can figure out how well they're hitting their irons and putting by comparing the last three figures, so I don't include putts per green in regulation here. Some of the figures Hound Dog thinks are most important I'm looking at in the career stats (below), where I think they belong. These stats are all about the present and future.

1. Inbee Park, $1.01M (#4), 71.28 (#9), 3.56 (#2), 63.9% (#86)
2. Song-Hee Kim, $553.4K (#9), 71.07 (#8), 3.70 (#22), 71.1% (#8)
3. Eun-Hee Ji, $486.7K (#12), 71.98 (#31), 2.85 (#40), 66.4% (#43)
4. Jane Park, $367.2K (#26), 71.96 (#29), 2.91 (#42), 71.7% (#6)
5. Angela Park, $351.1K (#28), 72.45 (#50), 2.98 (#36), 66.7% (#38)
6. In-Kyung Kim, $305.8K (#35), 72.18 (#39), 3.32 (#33), 64.7% (#71)
7. Ji Young Oh, $224.0K (#45), 72.02 (#33), 3.10 (#10), 67.9% (#31)
8. Kristy McPherson, $128.4K (#58), 72.57 (#56), 2.88 (#65), 68.4% (#26)
9. Irene Cho, $120.7K (#62), 73.03 (#73), 3.31 (#57), 62.3% (#104)
10. Na On Min, $107.6K (#67), 73.41 (#97), 2.63 (#48), 61.8% (#111)
11. Jin Joo Hong, $88.0K (#78), 72.79 (#65), 2.53 (#94), 66.5% (#41)
12. Becky Lucidi, $65.2K (#95), 73.06 (#77), 3.00 (#98), 68.5% (#24)
13. Sophie Giquel, $55.0K (#102), 73.36 (#94), 2.61 (#108), 63.2% (#96)
14. Charlotte Mayorkas, $51.1K (#107), 73.76 (#117), 2.16 (#114), 60.2% (#125)
15. Su A Kim, $44.1K (#114), 73.49 (#102), 2.57 (#100), 56.1% (#148)
16. Paige Mackenzie, $35.3K (#125), 73.71 (#112), 2.43 (#147), 64.8% (#67)
17. Seo-Jae Lee, $31.5K (#132), 73.87 (#122), 2.61 (#117), 51.8% (#158)
18. Cindy Pasechnik, $16.6K (#151), 74.89 (#146), 2.17 (#156), 51.5% (#159)
19. Sarah Lynn Sargent, $6.8K (#166), 76.10 (n.r.), ?, ?
20. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke, $2.5K (#182), 76.82 (n.r.), ?, ?


Career LPGA Money List (rank), # of LPGA events entered/majors/wins/top 3s/top 10s/top 20s/cuts made (made cut rate): About the only thing these stats are useful for is comparing people who entered the LPGA in the same year (although if you count generations by 3 years, it can be interesting). Between inflation, changing purses, and length/timing of careers, it's very hard to compare and contrast winnings across generations of LPGA greats. Fortunately the Super Sophs haven't been at this all too long, so the career money list is a decent stat for comparing them, even if it's a bit unfair to people who have not been exempt both years. What would really be great is if we had a world money list in inflation-adjusted dollars, with inflation- and exchange-adjusted other cash denominations added in (or just totalled up separately to avoid comparing dollars and yen), which included all each golfer earned as a professional on any tour. But even the guys don't have that, so that'll have to remain a dream for now. I include these other ways of seeing how the Super Sophs finished relative to their competition in the tournaments they entered because they reveal a lot about how well someone is able to compete at every level, from just making cuts to grinding out top 20s and top 10s to contending for wins. So here's how they stand:

1. Inbee Park, $1.39M (#118), 42/1/1/3/8/14/29 (.690)
2. Angela Park, $1.33M (#122), 41/0/0/5/11/16/37 (.902)
3. In-Kyung Kim, $.76M (#203), 37/0/0/2/7/11/29 (.784)
4. Eun-Hee Ji, $.74M (#207), 18/0/1/2/5/6/14 (.778)
5. Song-Hee Kim $.63M (#228), 39/0/0/3/6/11/26 (.667)
6. Jane Park, $.43M (#267), 25/0/0/2/3/6/19 (.760)
7. Na On Min, $.42M (#269), 35/0/0/1/2/5/23 (.657)
8. Ji Young Oh, $.37M (#280), 38/0/0/0/2/4/25 (.658)
9. Jin Joo Hong, $.25M (#342), 33/0/0/0/1/5/20 (.606)
10. Kristy McPherson, $.21M (#365), 29/0/0/0/1/3/19 (.655)
11. Charlotte Mayorkas, $.21M (#370), 34/0/0/0/0/3/22 (.647)
12. Irene Cho, $.18M (#380), 30/0/0/0/2/2/18 (.600)
13. Paige Mackenzie, $.08M (#465), 27/0/0/0/0/1/12 (.444)
14. Sophie Giquel, $.08M (#475), 18/0/0/0/0/0/9 (.500)
15. Becky Lucidi $.07M (#487), 13/0/0/0/0/1/6 (.462)
16. Su A Kim, $.06M (#504), 17/0/0/0/0/0/9 (.529)
17. Sarah Lynn Sargent, $.04M (#536), 24/0/0/0/0/0/10 (.417)
18. Seo-Jae Lee, $.04M (#550), 16/0/0/0/0/0/4 (.250)
19. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke, $.02M (#589), 16/0/0/0/0/1/2 (.125)
20. Cindy Pasechnik, $.02M (#602), 14/0/0/0/0/0/5 (.357)


Other Career Measures: Rolex Ranking (as of 6/30/08) and rank, Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index (as of 6/29/08) and rank, International and Non-Member LPGA Wins (as of the end of the 2007 season): This is a way of seeing how those Super Sophs who sometimes or regularly or often compete on other tours stack up over the course of their careers to date (the RR includes results over the past 104 weeks on the LPGA, LET, JLPGA, KLPGA, and Futures Tour; the GSPI includes results over the past 52 weeks on all these tours except the KLPGA).

1. Inbee Park, 4.55 (#12), 71.44 (#33); 0
2. Eun-Hee Ji, 3.94 (#18), 70.98 (#22); 4
3. Angela Park, 3.78 (#20), 71.57 (#36); 0
4. In-Kyung Kim, 2.95 (#34), 72.08 (#58); 0
5. Jane Park, 2.02 (#54), 71.93 (#49); 0
6. Song-Hee Kim, 2.00 (#56), 71.74 (#40); 0
7. Na On Min, 1.68 (#67), 73.25 (#121); 0
8. Ji Young Oh, 1.47 (#77); 71.31 (#30); 0
9. Jin Joo Hong, 1.27 (#84), 72.38 (#72); 2
10. Irene Cho, .92 (#118), 72.98 (#98); 0
11. Charlotte Mayorkas, .74 (#140), 73.47 (#137); 0
12. Sophie Giquel, .69 (#148), 73.62 (#149); 1
13. Kristy McPherson, .68 (#152), 72.82 (#88); 0
14. Becky Lucidi, .31 (#264), 73.56 (#144); 0
15. Paige Mackenzie, .30 (#268), 74.51 (#215); 0
16. Su A Kim, .25 (#285), 73.64 (#151); 0
17. Seo-Jae Lee, .20 (#320), 74.53 (#216); 0
18. Sarah Lynn Sargent, .06 (#484), 75.66 (#314); 0
19. Jeanne Cho-Hunicke, .06 (#503), 76.39 (#375); 0
20. Cindy Pasechnik, .02 (#688), 75.34 (#290); 0


So there you have it. I'll be checking back in on these rankings on the following schedule:

February: Junior Mints
March: Super Sophs
April: both
May: Junior Mints
July: Junior Mints (pre-British Open)
August: Super Sophs (post-Safeway)
September: both (post-Navistar)
October: Junior Mints (pre-Korea Championship)
November: Super Sophs (post-ADT)
December: all the Young Guns (post-Q School)