Sunday, March 2, 2014

The Best on the LPGA: Double-Digit Winners, March 2014 Edition

Welcome to the 10+ Wins Club, Paula!  Long time coming!  And what a way to get there!

[Note:  the numbers in parentheses indicate total LPGA wins and majors, respectively.]

Most Likely to Win (Again) in 2014

1. Suzann Pettersen (14/2):  I still think 2014 will be Suzann's year.  She's come so close to so many end-of-season awards, not to mention to the #1 position in the Rolex Rankings, in recent years, that's she's both due and hot.  How hot?  She's coming off a run at the end of 2013 in which she finished inside the top 7 in 11 of her last 13 starts and notched 3 of last season's 4 victories.  That was the longest hot streak of her career and I don't see any signs of it ending, even if she's "only" gotten 2 top 10s in her 1st 3 starts of 2014 and hasn't been in contention yet.  She's 11 points away from qualifying for the LPGA Hall of Fame.  I still wouldn't be surprised to see her cut that number in half by the end of 2014.
2. Paula Creamer (10/1):  In January, I wrote, "Her 1st win since the 2010 U.S. Women's Open will come during 2014.  I guarantee it.  How can I be so sure?  She needs to get her fiance a great wedding present!"  Now that she has it, the sky's the limit!
3. Karrie Webb (40/7):  In January, I wrote, "I'd say it's a matter of when, not if, win #40 on the LPGA will come for this Hall of Famer.  She often plays well at the very start of the year, by the way, so don't be surprised if she's in the hunt at the ISPS Handa Women's Australian Open, an event she's won 4 times, the last time in 2008."  And lo and behold, she won it!  So I stand by my other prediction from January:  "I see no reason that 2014 can't be as good or even better than 2013 for her.  If it's among her best, she has a chance to break the $20M barrier in career LPGA winnings this year!"  Keep in mind that during her 1st 11 seasons on the LPGA, she was a consistent threat for the money-list title (which she took 3 times), Player of the Year award (twice), and Vare Trophy (3 times, the lowest scoring average of the 3 coming in 1999, at 69.43).  In her near-20-year-long LPGA career, she's never finished outside the top 30 on the money list, only once had a scoring average above 72, only twice failed to make the top 20 on the money list (once when her scoring average rose above 71.50 for only the 3rd time in her career), and only 4 times failed to enter the winner's circle (in 2 of those seasons, her best finish was 2nd; in 2012, it was 3rd; for the other, it was 4th).

The Contenders

4. Cristie Kerr (16/2):  The last few years have seen historical streaks end for her.  2011 was her 1st season without a win since 2003.  Her run of consecutive million-dollar-seasons ended at 8 in 2012.  She failed to break the $1M barrier in 2013, as well, but did follow up her 2012 win at the Lorena Ochoa Invitational with a win at Kingsmill and broke the $15M barrier in career LPGA winnings.  Let's see if motherhood helps her to extend her current winning streak to 3 straight seasons and board the million-dollar train again.
5. Ya Ni Tseng (15/5):  For a brief time in her career, she was an Annika/Lorena-style straight-up bomber, but lately she's been much more of a Michelle Wie-style wild bomber.  Still, problems with the driver can sometimes clear up quickly, when a new club or swing thought suddenly clicks.  So as bad as things have been looking for her lately, I'm still thinking a win is possible for her in 2014.  If she can get things going, she also has a chance to break the $10M barrier in career LPGA winnings this year.  And she's still only 4 points away from entering the LPGA Hall of Fame (once she completes 10 seasons on tour, that is).  That T5 in Thailand is a very hopeful sign for the rest of the season.  Let's see how she builds on it when the LPGA debuts in the States!

Quantum Leap Candidate

6. Se Ri Pak (25/5):  The Hall of Famer finished 2013 with 3 top 10s in her last 4 starts, but sat out the CME Group Titleholders, raising fears about the shoulder injury that's been plaguing her the last few seasons.  It's gotten to the point that it's hard to remember that from 1998-2004, she was one of the 3 best players in the world of women's golf, racking up 22 golds, 14 silvers, 6 bronzes, and 83 top 10s in all.  She won the Vare Trophy in 2003 with a 70.03 scoring average, but not in 2002 with a 69.85 one or in 2001 with a 69.69 (thanks, Annika!).  She was a 4-time silver medalist on the money list and 2-time bronze medalist during this stretch.  She hasn't been nearly that dominant since then, but she won her 5th major in dramatic fashion at the 2006 LPGA Championship, became a 5-time winner of the Farr (now Marathon) in 2007, the year she was inducted into the Hall of Fame, and got her 25th career win at the Bell Micro in 2010.  The question for 2014 is not just whether she can break through again, but how serious her shoulder injury really is and how much longer it will permit her to play on the LPGA.  She's got 2 top 20s in her 1st 3 starts, so seems to be doing well right now.

On the Bottom, Looking Up

7. Juli Inkster (31/7):  Her best event in 2013, a top-15 finish, was in NW Arkansas, but her performance stats remained fairly solid and she'll be able to play as many events as she wants to in 2014 from #70 on the priority status list.  If she has a good year, she can break the $14M barrier in career LPGA winnings.
8. Laura Davies (20/4):  She gained a little distance in 2013, but continued her 4-season trend of bad putting.  Until she gets the flat stick working, those last 2 Hall of Fame points she needs are looking further and further out of reach.  She should get plenty of starts from #153 on the priority status list, so let's see what she does with them.

On the Outside, Looking In

9. Ji-Yai Shin (11/2):  Even though she's left the LPGA for 2014, she remains the 2nd-ranked player in my career evaluation system.  She'll need to win an LPGA event she happens to enter for her 2014 results to count toward her career totals.  It didn't happen at the Showdown in Singapore.  We may not see her again on the LPGA until the Kraft Nabisco Championship.


DaveAndrews said...

Paula seemed to really be firing through all of her shots from what I saw of her on TV. Looked very confident, aggressive and powerful with her swing. By the way, I really enjoyed the TV coverage. Golf Channel could learn a few things from them in the way they cover the LPGA events. I wish I could have stayed awake for the great finish.

Unknown said...

How can you put Inkster and Davies ahead of Shin? Even if she plays in only 6 to 10 events I have to figure she has a better chance of winning than either Inkster or Davies.

The Constructivist said...

It's just the way my categories work out, Jim. If you don't have LPGA membership, you're in the bottom category, as simple as that. I agree Ji-Yai has better odds of winning than many ahead of her--she'd be in my "most likely to win" category if she had just kept dual membership--but I've got to stick to my system.

Colin N.Z said...

Four tournaments and four different winners and Paula has been the most consistent of those who have played all 16 rounds. I'm glad Azahara already has one LPGA title it would have been a hell of a way to lose a shot at your first. She has been getting closer to a win every tournament so far this year so no surprise she was right there at the end. I have to agree with Dave on the GC coverage. I was watching a little of the live stream on my laptop while also watching it live on pay TV here (SKY Sports) and they were going for way more commercial breaks then coming back to give you a short replay of what we were getting live during their commercials so you were missing a lot of the coverage. I got to say though I thought the commentators were pretty ordinary using the same clichés over and over again. Bruce the GC live stream can be found here most of the time.
I guess we will be taking the GC coverage on Sky when the tour resumes in the US. Thought Lydia still had a reasonable tournament it's all a learning curve for her still I'm sure every new course she plays on will help her game. I see Se Ri and So Yeon have gone from ROY but now we have Eun-Hee Ji in with a chance or did I miss her on the list...

The Constructivist said...

Thanks, Colin. I saw Eun-Hee there, too. I think someone at has a sense of humor!