Bill Jempty, Ryan Ballengee, and Patricia Hannigan have started a conversation on Sal Johnson's take on the future of golf and the media that's worth contributing to. But how? I have nothing to say about the value of blogging or the tensions between journalists and bloggers that Michael Berube hasn't said better--and much funnier. So what to do? I'll focus here for a start on how I approach golf blogging. In a later post, I'll discuss what I value from the best golf bloggers I've come across.
My training as a scholar and teacher shapes my approach to golf blogging. My aim is to produce quality research, use it to educate a few people, and have a little fun in the process. Which is to say, (1) I don't aspire to become a golf journalist, much less somehow undermine or supplant golf journalism, (2) I follow established academic ethical codes (support claims with evidence, cite sources, and so on) and emergent bloggy ones (link link link!), (3) I pursue what I'm curious, excited, and enjoy writing about in the world of women's golf (with a few visits to other worlds sprinkled in here and there), (4) I try to develop a particular niche and a distinctive voice for my Mostly Harmless golf writing, (5) I am more interested in gaining the respect of the golf writers, bloggers, and commenters that I respect and admire than in making any money off my golf writing, and (6) I won't do anything to draw in a bigger audience to my golf writing that would sacrifice these goals and principles.
On the research side, one thing I enjoy doing is dusting off some ancient and atrophied math skills (back in the day I was a double major in English and math) by developing my Best of the LPGA, Best of the Young Guns, and Best Off the LPGA ranking systems. Although I've made other forays into the wide wide world of golf stats, Hound Dog's the leader of the pack in this neighborhood. So even though I'm sometimes in his league when it comes to predictions and competitions, the math stuff is mostly a fun side gig for me.
Where I actually can make the best contribution, I believe, is by drawing on my own areas of expertise in cultural, ethnic, and postcolonial studies to examine attitudes toward the sport and undercurrents in golf media and fan discourse, not to mention issues of language and culture, race and gender, and globalization and nationalism in golf. What draws me to the LPGA in particular is how global the women's game has become and the range of ways that players, tours, fans, sponsors, and the media have been responding to--and contributing to the (re)construction of--cultural, ethnic, and linguistic differences. With Seoul Sisters.com ably covering the KLPGA and the accomplishments of the LPGA's Korean contingent (along with the top Korean players and golfers of Korean descent on other tours), I've been free to branch out to consider the future of international team golf competitions, the prospects of women's professional golf in China, and the LPGA's new event in Brazil. But my particular research focus has gravitated toward the place of Japan in the world of women's golf and on golf's global youth movement.
I've focused on Japanese golfers on the LPGA and the JLPGA for a variety of reasons, not least among them that I started LPGA blogging while living in Fukuoka and teaching American literature and culture on a Fulbright. My wife is Japanese and my two daughters (onechan, 5, and imoto, 2) have dual Japanese and American citizenship, so it's probably no surprise that Ai Miyazato and Momoko Ueda are among my favorite players (while onechan favors Natalie Gulbis, Paula Creamer, and Karrie Webb), but it took me until last March to work on my rudimentary reading skills in Japanese and dive into the JLPGA web site. In addition to trying last season to produce better round-by-round overviews of JLPGA events than Kyodo News or Golfweek (which was far far easier than it oughtta be), I became interested in who were the JLPGA's finest golfers, why there has been a Se Ri Pak effect but no Ayako Okamoto effect on the LPGA, who from the JLPGA would be most likely to succeed on the LPGA, what American players and the LPGA could learn from Patti Rizzo, and what kind of schedules those with dual JLPGA/LPGA membership might put together in 2009. I still have a ways to go before I'm ready to focus on a book project that's come out of this research, but at least I have the idea and can continue to make progress on it here.
An outgrowth of my attention to Ai Miyazato's and Momoko Ueda's fellow LPGA rookies and to the up-and-coming players on the JLPGA (and, to a lesser extent, the KLPGA) has been my focus on the teens and 20somethings in the world of women's golf who are changing the face of the LPGA. Women's golf's global youth movement picked up a lot of steam in 2008, as Seon Hwa Lee became the 1st among the LPGA rookie classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008 to post multiple wins in a season and Morgan Pressel became the 1st to join her in emerging from the fast-growing pack of 1-time winners in their generation. With Ya Ni Tseng and Louise Friberg from this past year's rookies joining Super Sophs Inbee Park, Eun-Hee Ji, In-Kyung Kim, and Ji Young Oh and Junior Mints Julieta Granada and Meaghan Francella, that's 14 wins and counting from the Young Guns. Who will be next? Na Yeon Choi? Angela Park? Amy Yang? Ai Miyazato? Brittany Lang? Song-Hee Kim? Jane Park? Hee Young Park? Shanshan Feng? Or will Jee Young Lee or Momoko Ueda follow up on their non-member wins (in Korea and Japan, respectively) before them? Or perhaps someone from the much-heralded Class of 2009 will live up to her hype and steal the Young Guns' thunder? When you look at the list of young winners on the KLPGA and JLPGA in recent years not named Ji-Yai Shin--Hee Kyung Seo, Ha Neul Kim, Sun Ju Ahn, He Yong Choi, So Yeon Ryu, Sakura Yokomine, Miho Koga, Mi-Jeong Jeon, Yuko Mitsuka, Hyun-Ju Shin, Bo-Bae Song, Eun-A Lim, Erina Hara, Ayako Uehara, Akane Iijima, Mayu Hattori, Miki Saiki, Yukari Baba, Chie Arimura, Maiko Wakabayashi, and Na Zhang--you have to wonder who else will be coming over to the LPGA soon from Asia and making a big impact on the New Blood generation. (That's to say nothing of the NCAA and Futures Tour, which I plan to pay more attention to in 2009).
One area that I didn't expect to get so interested in researching, despite the fact that it connected closely to my interest in globalization and transnationalism, was the infrastructure (both organizational and financial) of women's professional golf--from how tour schedules get put together to how they connect with TV deals, from the new rules for membership and priority status on the LPGA to a controversy (like over tying membership to language ability--and backtracking [with good reason]) or two. As a result, I'm actually more optimistic than most everyone I've been reading on the LPGA's prospects for a new TV contract for 2010-2015. (But more on that later.)
On the teaching side, my major aims are to help LPGA fans (whether casual or devoted) dig deeper and perhaps even educate the golf media in the process. With no regular AP writer covering the LPGA last season and with many good local golf writers getting the ax in '08, there was a serious lack of context and perspective, not to mention detail, in the game stories that get the widest audience on sports pages and news aggregators. Outside of Annika Sorenstam, Lorena Ochoa, Paula Creamer, and Michelle Wie, the casual sports fan might have heard of only a handful of other LPGA players, mostly American (and blonde), and the AP was doing little (if anything) to change that. Even the magazine writers paid to cover the LPGA left me looking for more on LPGA.com and GolfObserver.com. So I worked out a more systematic approach to previewing and commenting on LPGA events this season than last, trying to uncover the rounds and the players that even the best LPGA bloggers weren't attending to all that closely. (I tried to do the same, on a smaller scale, for the JLPGA in 2008.)
In addition, by raising questions, identifying turning points, noting trends, marking milestones, offering criticisms of bad reporting, analysis, and opinion writing in the golf media (by Steve Elling [twice], Ron Sirak [twice], Jason Sobel [twice], Doug Ferguson, and Sal Johnson [twice]), and looking for future LPGA stars (like Mika Miyazato, Hannah Yun, Cheyenne Woods, Kyung Kim, and others), I built in 2008 on my attempts the previous year to call attention to the quality of competition on the LPGA by organizing LPGA-centric blog carnivals, identifying LPGA generations, and introducing well-known, better-known, and lesser-known LPGA players. I see last week's 6-part series as the culmination of these efforts to highlight the very best players on tour.
But just as important to me has been my attempt to convey the struggles of those trying to make it as professional golfers by following the ups and downs of the budding careers of everyone in the Young Gun generation, not just the heads of the class. In my 1st junior golf tournament, I was paired with Moira Dunn, who would go on to join the LPGA in 1994. I've followed her career ever since and even though she's had a handful of good seasons and has 1 career win, she's been struggling to hold onto her card the last several seasons. While I've been attuned for a long time to following her competition in the middle and lower reaches of the LPGA, I've enjoyed tracking more closely over the past 3 seasons how the newbies have been doing relative to her. I hope my readers gain perspective on career arcs and come to appreciate how good the best of the newbies have to be to outdo tough competitors like Moira.
When I consider my research and teaching efforts as a whole, I'm hoping that those bloggers and journalists who reach a wider audience than me might consider what they can learn from what I've done here and how to incorporate some of it into their own golf writing. In a broader sense, the golf writing I do here at Mostly Harmless is an experiment in how much and what kind of an influence I can have on its various constituencies and institutions, from fans, players, and tournament organizers to writers, sponsors, and tour officials.
So, yes, this blog is for fun--which means I can experiment with more free-form autobiographical pieces and on-course reports (3 of my favorite posts evah), focus on a cute moment between Tiger and Sam Alexis Woods, make poetry out of a Momoko Ueda fingernail injury, explain why the LPGA is more interesting than the PGA, and root on my favorite golfers (Ai-chan, Moira Dunn, Seon Hwa Lee, Ya Ni Tseng, Momo-chan, In-Kyung Kim, Mi Hyun Kim, Jeong Jang, Eun-Hee Ji, Na Yeon Choi, and Jane Park)--but that doesn't mean I take my golf blogging any less seriously.
Simply put, my ultimate aim is to become one of the preeminent American experts on the LPGA and JLPGA on the web. And maybe someday, off it, too. Mostly Harmless is my means to these ends.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Ranking the 2008 LPGA Top 30 Predictors
In yesterday's post, I surveyed how my preseason top 30 picks for the 2008 LPGA season panned out and generated an overall 2008 ranking that's an average of the 5 top systems in place for identifying the best players on the LPGA. In this one, I'm modifying the scoring system for Seoul Sister.com's Pakpicker competition to determine how I did relative to Hound Dog, Mulligan Stu, Bill Jempty, and Ron Sirak.
Here's how it works. First, we get points for each of our picks who finished in the top 30 (including ties), on the following scale: 30 for 1st, 29 for 2nd, 28 for 3rd, and so on, down to 1 for 30th. Next, we get bonus points for the accuracy of our picks: 20 points for nailing a pick and a point off for every spot we're off (up to 19, to avoid turning the bonus into a penalty). The maximum number of points you can get for a single player, then, is 50 (picking as our top player the actual #1).
(Drum roll, please.)
Here's how I rank the 2008 LPGA top 30 predictors:
1st Mulligan Stu (646)
2nd Hound Dog (604)
3rd The Constructivist (569)
4th Bill Jempty (529)
5th Ron Sirak (518)
Congratulations to Mulligan Stu! So what accounted for his dominating victory? The most important factor was that he was the only one of us to pick Ya Ni Tseng to make the top 30 (bringing his total of correct top 30 picks to 21; what sunk Jempty and Sirak was that they missed an additional 3 top 30 players). The rest of his lead can be accounted for mainly by the fact that he picked Inbee Park and Maria Hjorth higher and Jee Young Lee and Morgan Pressel lower than Hound Dog and I.
So there you have it. Once again, the mainstream golf media loses to mere golf bloggers. Better luck this year, Ron!
Here's how it works. First, we get points for each of our picks who finished in the top 30 (including ties), on the following scale: 30 for 1st, 29 for 2nd, 28 for 3rd, and so on, down to 1 for 30th. Next, we get bonus points for the accuracy of our picks: 20 points for nailing a pick and a point off for every spot we're off (up to 19, to avoid turning the bonus into a penalty). The maximum number of points you can get for a single player, then, is 50 (picking as our top player the actual #1).
(Drum roll, please.)
Here's how I rank the 2008 LPGA top 30 predictors:
1st Mulligan Stu (646)
2nd Hound Dog (604)
3rd The Constructivist (569)
4th Bill Jempty (529)
5th Ron Sirak (518)
Congratulations to Mulligan Stu! So what accounted for his dominating victory? The most important factor was that he was the only one of us to pick Ya Ni Tseng to make the top 30 (bringing his total of correct top 30 picks to 21; what sunk Jempty and Sirak was that they missed an additional 3 top 30 players). The rest of his lead can be accounted for mainly by the fact that he picked Inbee Park and Maria Hjorth higher and Jee Young Lee and Morgan Pressel lower than Hound Dog and I.
So there you have it. Once again, the mainstream golf media loses to mere golf bloggers. Better luck this year, Ron!
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Before there was J-pop . . .
I remember this song from my youth:
It's the first (and only) Japanese-language song to be a hit in America.
It's the first (and only) Japanese-language song to be a hit in America.
2008 Preseason Predictions, Revisited
Last January I joined Hound Dog, Mulligan Stu, Bill Jempty, and Ron Sirak in attempting to predict the top 30 on the LPGA at the end of the 2008 season. Hound Dog and I checked in with mid-season reports, but how did I end up doing? Here's my predicted top 30, with their actual 2008 results in parentheses (from the LPGA Official Money List, the Rolex Rankings, the Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index, Hound Dog's Top 70, Mostly Harmless's Best of the LPGA: average ranking), along with a few comments:
1. Lorena Ochoa (#1, #1, #1, #1, #1: 1). Big surprise--everyone got this pick right.
2. Paula Creamer (#2, #4, #3, #2, #2: 2.6). I'd say she's the consensus #2, wouldn't you?
3. Seon Hwa Lee (#6, #11, #15, #9, #8: 9.8). She got 2 wins, but didn't finish as consistently well as in previous seasons. Not the breakthrough year I was looking for.
4. Jee Young Lee (#21, #15, #16, #22, #18: 18.4). Nice push at the very end of the season turned what could have been a big disappointment into a medium-sized one.
5. Annika Sorenstam (#4, #3, #5, #4, #3: 3.8). She exceeded my expectations, despite struggling after a near-perfect Michelob Ultra (her last LPGA win).
6. Morgan Pressel (#24, #19, #48, #27, #25: 28.6). Another Young Gun who really let me down this season, even though she did get her 2nd career win. But she gave onechan an autographed ball at the Wegmans, so all is forgiven!
7. Jeong Jang (#12, #13, #7, #12, #12: 11.2). Came close so many times in early '08, but between those near misses and her persistent wrist problems, she didn't meet my expectations in '08.
8. Hee-Won Han (#19, #18, #13, #16, #15: 16.2). She did ok coming off maternity leave, but not as well as I hoped she would.
9. Se Ri Pak (#52, #31, #93, #63, #44: 56.6). The 1st of my picks to miss the top 30 completely. Ouch.
10. Mi Hyun Kim (#40, #29, #22, #29, #27: 29.4). Didn't bounce back from off-season knee surgery as quickly or as effectively as I'd hoped.
11. Angela Park (#17, #22, #27, #25, #21: 22.4). Got hit by the sophomore jinx early in the season when she took a slow-play penalty while in contention in Hawaii, took a long time to bounce back, and finished kind of blah.
12. Stacy Prammanasudh (#37, #34, #44, #36, #36: 37.4). Another big disappointment--the 2nd of my picks to miss the top 30 entirely.
13. Cristie Kerr (#10, #7, #6, #6, #6: 7). Extended her million-dollar season streak to 5 with a great second half that included her 11th career win.
14. Natalie Gulbis (#56, #39, #79, #56, #46: 55.2). Her recurring back injury really limited her play the second half of the season, which explains why she's my 3rd pick to miss the top 30.
15. Suzann Pettersen (#7, #5, #4, #7, #5: 5.6). Even though she couldn't find that next LPGA win in '08, she had a very consistent and successful season--definitely exceeded my expectations.
16. Ai Miyazato (#46, #37, #46, #49, #41: 43.8). Made a decent comeback from her woes in the 2nd half of her sophomore season (leg injury, swing flaw, confidence loss), getting into contention a couple of times in '08, but she's still my 4th pick to miss the top 30 and yet another Junior Mint disappointment.
17. In-Kyung Kim (#22, #25, #28, #20, #22: 23.4). This "punk kid" (as she described herself) got her 1st LPGA win in '08, coming back from a so-so start to the season, but still didn't perform up to my expectations.
18. Momoko Ueda (#45, #14, #26, #35, #28: 29.6). Without her 2 wins on the JLPGA, she would have dropped sharply in the world rankings and dropped out of the top 30 (she's already out in winnings and Hound Dog's ranking). But I'm not complaining.
19. Eun-Hee Ji (#15, #17, #14, #13, #14: 14.6). I ranked her as the top Super Soph at one point this season (soon after she got her 1st LPGA win) and she'll be back there again if she continues to outperform her peers. Her consistency reminds me of Seon Hwa Lee.
20. Jane Park (#29, #47, #32, #34, #33: 35). Didn't have the breakthrough season I predicted, and a late slump made her my 5th pick to miss the top 30.
21. Karrie Webb (#18, #10, #10, #15, #10: 12.6). Even though she didn't win on the LPGA in '08, she still exceeded my expectations by a lot.
22. Brittany Lincicome (#92, #63, #168, n.r., n.r.: too high). My 6th pick to miss the top 30 is my pick for biggest disappointment of the year.
23. Christina Kim (#27, #38, #30, #26, #29: 30). She just squeaked into the top 30, but always seems to have an off-year when the Solheim Cup isn't being played.
24. Shi Hyun Ahn (#55, #43, #64, #47, #49: 51.6). She only played 18 events in '08, so I suspect injuries curtailed her usually-limited LPGA schedule. Whatever the reason, she's my 7th pick to miss the top 30.
25. Angela Stanford (#9, #9, #12, #8, #7: 9). She's definitely the biggest upside surprise in my entire top 30, thanks to a torrid finish to the '08 season that included 2 wins.
26. Juli Inkster (#38, #24, #18, #32, #26: 27.6). Another vet who benefitted from high world rankings, but given her extremely limited schedule, I'll take what I can get at this point.
27. Meena Lee (#38, #58, #42, #38, #37: 42.6). My 8th pick to miss the top 30 was one of the smaller disappointments of '08, all things considered.
28. Laura Davies (#95, #68, #96, n.r., n.r.: too high). Dropped off the face of the LPGA earth in '08, but at least she has an excuse.
29. Sophie Gustafson (#28, #33, #55, #37, #34: 37.4). Her season could have been entirely different if she had held it together 1 Sunday in early June, but as it is she's my 10th pick to miss the top 30. Came pretty close to perfect on her money list position, though.
30. Inbee Park (#8, #21, #34, #13, #11: 17.4). Got that 1st win--and made it a major--but seriously slumped after it. Even so, she exceeded my expectations by a wide margin.
So who'd I miss? Ya Ni Tseng (avg. 4.4), Na Yeon Choi (13.4), Karen Stupples (17.8), Helen Alfredsson (18.4), Candie Kung (20.4), Laura Diaz (20.8), Song-Hee Kim (21), Maria Hjorth (24), and Katherine Hull (24.4) were the only other players whose average ranking was less than 30. Others who came closer to the top 30 than many of my bad picks included Ji Young Oh (32.6), Brittany Lang (33.8), Sun Young Yoo (36.4), Nicole Castrale (38.6), Catriona Matthew (39.4), Lindsey Wright (40.8), Teresa Lu (41.6), and Hee Young Park (44.8).
Using this average ranking system, here's the consensus top 30 for 2008:
1. Ochoa
2. Creamer
3. Sorenstam
4. Tseng
5. Pettersen
6. Kerr
7. Stanford
8. SH Lee
9. Jang
10. Webb
11. NY Choi
12. Ji
13. Han
14. I Park
15. Stupples
T16. JY Lee, Alfredsson
18. Kung
19. Diaz
20. SH Kim
21. A Park
22. IK Kim
23. Hjorth
24. Hull
25. Inkster
26. Pressel
27. MH Kim
28. Ueda
29. C Kim
30. Oh
FYI, here are the best of the rest (those with average rankings under 50):
31. Lang
32. J Park
33. Yoo
T34. Prammanasusdh, Gustafson
36. Castrale
37. Matthew
38. Wright
39. Lu
40. M Lee
41. Miyazato
42. HY Park
Next post I'll compare my results to everyone else's....
1. Lorena Ochoa (#1, #1, #1, #1, #1: 1). Big surprise--everyone got this pick right.
2. Paula Creamer (#2, #4, #3, #2, #2: 2.6). I'd say she's the consensus #2, wouldn't you?
3. Seon Hwa Lee (#6, #11, #15, #9, #8: 9.8). She got 2 wins, but didn't finish as consistently well as in previous seasons. Not the breakthrough year I was looking for.
4. Jee Young Lee (#21, #15, #16, #22, #18: 18.4). Nice push at the very end of the season turned what could have been a big disappointment into a medium-sized one.
5. Annika Sorenstam (#4, #3, #5, #4, #3: 3.8). She exceeded my expectations, despite struggling after a near-perfect Michelob Ultra (her last LPGA win).
6. Morgan Pressel (#24, #19, #48, #27, #25: 28.6). Another Young Gun who really let me down this season, even though she did get her 2nd career win. But she gave onechan an autographed ball at the Wegmans, so all is forgiven!
7. Jeong Jang (#12, #13, #7, #12, #12: 11.2). Came close so many times in early '08, but between those near misses and her persistent wrist problems, she didn't meet my expectations in '08.
8. Hee-Won Han (#19, #18, #13, #16, #15: 16.2). She did ok coming off maternity leave, but not as well as I hoped she would.
9. Se Ri Pak (#52, #31, #93, #63, #44: 56.6). The 1st of my picks to miss the top 30 completely. Ouch.
10. Mi Hyun Kim (#40, #29, #22, #29, #27: 29.4). Didn't bounce back from off-season knee surgery as quickly or as effectively as I'd hoped.
11. Angela Park (#17, #22, #27, #25, #21: 22.4). Got hit by the sophomore jinx early in the season when she took a slow-play penalty while in contention in Hawaii, took a long time to bounce back, and finished kind of blah.
12. Stacy Prammanasudh (#37, #34, #44, #36, #36: 37.4). Another big disappointment--the 2nd of my picks to miss the top 30 entirely.
13. Cristie Kerr (#10, #7, #6, #6, #6: 7). Extended her million-dollar season streak to 5 with a great second half that included her 11th career win.
14. Natalie Gulbis (#56, #39, #79, #56, #46: 55.2). Her recurring back injury really limited her play the second half of the season, which explains why she's my 3rd pick to miss the top 30.
15. Suzann Pettersen (#7, #5, #4, #7, #5: 5.6). Even though she couldn't find that next LPGA win in '08, she had a very consistent and successful season--definitely exceeded my expectations.
16. Ai Miyazato (#46, #37, #46, #49, #41: 43.8). Made a decent comeback from her woes in the 2nd half of her sophomore season (leg injury, swing flaw, confidence loss), getting into contention a couple of times in '08, but she's still my 4th pick to miss the top 30 and yet another Junior Mint disappointment.
17. In-Kyung Kim (#22, #25, #28, #20, #22: 23.4). This "punk kid" (as she described herself) got her 1st LPGA win in '08, coming back from a so-so start to the season, but still didn't perform up to my expectations.
18. Momoko Ueda (#45, #14, #26, #35, #28: 29.6). Without her 2 wins on the JLPGA, she would have dropped sharply in the world rankings and dropped out of the top 30 (she's already out in winnings and Hound Dog's ranking). But I'm not complaining.
19. Eun-Hee Ji (#15, #17, #14, #13, #14: 14.6). I ranked her as the top Super Soph at one point this season (soon after she got her 1st LPGA win) and she'll be back there again if she continues to outperform her peers. Her consistency reminds me of Seon Hwa Lee.
20. Jane Park (#29, #47, #32, #34, #33: 35). Didn't have the breakthrough season I predicted, and a late slump made her my 5th pick to miss the top 30.
21. Karrie Webb (#18, #10, #10, #15, #10: 12.6). Even though she didn't win on the LPGA in '08, she still exceeded my expectations by a lot.
22. Brittany Lincicome (#92, #63, #168, n.r., n.r.: too high). My 6th pick to miss the top 30 is my pick for biggest disappointment of the year.
23. Christina Kim (#27, #38, #30, #26, #29: 30). She just squeaked into the top 30, but always seems to have an off-year when the Solheim Cup isn't being played.
24. Shi Hyun Ahn (#55, #43, #64, #47, #49: 51.6). She only played 18 events in '08, so I suspect injuries curtailed her usually-limited LPGA schedule. Whatever the reason, she's my 7th pick to miss the top 30.
25. Angela Stanford (#9, #9, #12, #8, #7: 9). She's definitely the biggest upside surprise in my entire top 30, thanks to a torrid finish to the '08 season that included 2 wins.
26. Juli Inkster (#38, #24, #18, #32, #26: 27.6). Another vet who benefitted from high world rankings, but given her extremely limited schedule, I'll take what I can get at this point.
27. Meena Lee (#38, #58, #42, #38, #37: 42.6). My 8th pick to miss the top 30 was one of the smaller disappointments of '08, all things considered.
28. Laura Davies (#95, #68, #96, n.r., n.r.: too high). Dropped off the face of the LPGA earth in '08, but at least she has an excuse.
29. Sophie Gustafson (#28, #33, #55, #37, #34: 37.4). Her season could have been entirely different if she had held it together 1 Sunday in early June, but as it is she's my 10th pick to miss the top 30. Came pretty close to perfect on her money list position, though.
30. Inbee Park (#8, #21, #34, #13, #11: 17.4). Got that 1st win--and made it a major--but seriously slumped after it. Even so, she exceeded my expectations by a wide margin.
So who'd I miss? Ya Ni Tseng (avg. 4.4), Na Yeon Choi (13.4), Karen Stupples (17.8), Helen Alfredsson (18.4), Candie Kung (20.4), Laura Diaz (20.8), Song-Hee Kim (21), Maria Hjorth (24), and Katherine Hull (24.4) were the only other players whose average ranking was less than 30. Others who came closer to the top 30 than many of my bad picks included Ji Young Oh (32.6), Brittany Lang (33.8), Sun Young Yoo (36.4), Nicole Castrale (38.6), Catriona Matthew (39.4), Lindsey Wright (40.8), Teresa Lu (41.6), and Hee Young Park (44.8).
Using this average ranking system, here's the consensus top 30 for 2008:
1. Ochoa
2. Creamer
3. Sorenstam
4. Tseng
5. Pettersen
6. Kerr
7. Stanford
8. SH Lee
9. Jang
10. Webb
11. NY Choi
12. Ji
13. Han
14. I Park
15. Stupples
T16. JY Lee, Alfredsson
18. Kung
19. Diaz
20. SH Kim
21. A Park
22. IK Kim
23. Hjorth
24. Hull
25. Inkster
26. Pressel
27. MH Kim
28. Ueda
29. C Kim
30. Oh
FYI, here are the best of the rest (those with average rankings under 50):
31. Lang
32. J Park
33. Yoo
T34. Prammanasusdh, Gustafson
36. Castrale
37. Matthew
38. Wright
39. Lu
40. M Lee
41. Miyazato
42. HY Park
Next post I'll compare my results to everyone else's....
Friday, January 9, 2009
2000-2008 LPGA Break Points, Revisited
Last October I looked at the season-by-season winnings of the #1, #2, #5, #10, #20, #30, #50, #80, #100, and #125 players on the LPGA from 2000 to 2008. Here are the final results from this past season, along with a little bit of contextualization and analysis:
1. Lorena Ochoa $2.76M
2. Paula Creamer $1.82M
5. Helen Alfredsson $1.43M
10. Cristie Kerr $1.11M
20. Laura Diaz $809.5K
30. Brittany Lang $630.3K (1.045% of the total purse for the season)
50. Allison Fouch $375.3K (.622%)
80. Wendy Doolan $137.5K (.228%)
100. Julieta Granada $101.1K (.168%)
125. Young-A Yang $68.8K
Why these positions on the money list? The top 50 on the money list typically get into the late-season Asian Swing; the top 80 get Category 1 status the following season; #100 is the cut-off for Category 11 status; and #125 is the cut-off for Category 15 status. While it used to be the top 90 who got fully exempt status (roughly equivalent to Category 1 in the current membership system), I thought it would be interesting to track the top 80 trends here--plus it would help us look ahead and try to figure out where the upcoming season's "cut line" will fall.
What I was originally looking for when compiling the decade's stats was evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA has been getting deeper. I was a little surprised to find that Doolan's takings this past season were mid-to-low for a #80 player: while they were the best in recent years, they were nowhere close to Silvia Cavalleri's peak of .288% in 2004; whereas 4 of the 1st 5 #80 players got over .250% this decade, nobody has come close since 2004. In comments, Hound Dog suggested that the increasing number of limited-field events may help account for this trend. To test his hypothesis, let's see if the #30 players have been taking home even more than the #50, #80, and #100 players over the 2nd half of the decade.
#30 takings: .767% (2000), .825% (2001), .881% (2002), .984% (2003), .978% (2004), 1.002% (2005), .757% (2006), .857% (2007); 2000-2008 average: .900%; 2000-2004 average: .887%; 2005-2008 average: .915%
#50 takings: .472% (2000), .515% (2001), .481% (2002), .521% (2003), .555% (2004), .546% (2005), .529% (2006), .484% (2007); 2000-2008 average: .525%; 2000-2004 average: .509%; 2005-2008 average: .545%
#80 takings: .275% (2000), .252% (2001), .263% (2002), .214% (2003), .288% (2004), .227% (2005), .224% (2006), .214% (2007); 2000-2008 average: .243%; 2000-2004 average: .258%; 2005-2008 average: .223%
#100 takings: .203% (2000), .148% (2001), .158% (2002), .159% (2003), .183% (2004), .144% (2005), .144% (2006), .135% (2007); 2000-2008 average: .160%; 2000-2004 average: .170%; 2005-2008 average: .148%
The gap between the #30 and #50 player on tour had been growing steadily between 2000 and 2003, from .295 to .310 to .400 to .463, and only dropped slightly in 2004 to .423; from 2005 to 2006, however, the gap declined sharply from .456 to .228, and only went back up to .373 and .423 in the past 2 seasons. That averages out to a .378 gap in the 1st half of the decade and a .370 gap the past 4 seasons. So while a lot depends on the size of the gap this coming season before we can draw any definite conclusions, the data suggests that with most of the top 50 players getting into most of the limited-field events, there hasn't been a sharper separation between the #30 and #50 players over the course of the decade; if anything, the #50 players have been making up a little ground on the #30 players over the second half of the decade.
Similarly, the gap between the #30 and #80 players grew steadily from 2000 to 2003 (from .492 to .573 to .618 to .770) and dropped slightly in 2004 (to .690); where the data departs from the #30-#50 gap, however, is from 2005-2008 (moving from .775 to .533 to .643 to .817): the average gap in the 1st half of the decade was .629, while in the 2nd half of the decade (so far) it grew to .692. 2009 will have to buck this trend in a serious way to make a dent in that increasing separation between the #30 and #80 players. Meanwhile, the gap between the #50 and #80 players is widening even further, from .251 in the 1st half of the decade to .322 in the 2nd (thus far). That's a 22% increase compared to a 9% increase--pretty serious.
It seems clear, then, that the increase in limited-field events in the 2nd half of this decade is benefitting the top 50 players over the next 30 players on the LPGA in a fairly significant way. I see no reason for this trend not to continue. But as the #50 player tends to be doing better relative to the #80 player than the #30 player over time, I also see evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA is deepening.
This trend becomes even clearer when you bring the #100 player into the picture. Just as before, the gap between the #30 and #100 players has been widening from the 1st half (.717) to the 2nd half of the decade (.767), but the separation has been even sharper between the #50 and #100 players (from .339 to .397). Again, the #50 player's takings relative to the #100 player are increasing faster than the #30 player's, although the difference is a bit smaller (a 14.6% increase compared to a 6.5% increase). What this suggests is that the bottom of the 2nd 50 on the LPGA have been holding the line a little better than the top, despite being similarly shut out of most limited-field events. In fact, the distance between the #80 and #100 players actually shrunk from .088 in 2000-2004 to .075 in 2005-2008--almost a 15% drop!
Here's further evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA has been deepening this decade. With the #100 players closing the gap on the #80 players, the competition for those last Category 1 spots has been getting more intense (or would have, if the current rules had been in place all decade). If this trend continues, we're likely to see more years like last one, where Granada had the 3rd-best takings of the decade among the #100 players, coming very close to the decade's average, while Doolan's were only the 5th-best among the #80 players, significantly behind both the 4th-best and the decade's average. And I see little reason for it not to continue, as the vast majority of the 56 players I just profiled are top 80 material for 2009, which leaves only 30-35 more spots for the players whose careers to date have been only slightly less successful than those of the LPGA's elite. When you consider that 3 of the 2008 money list's top 30, 10 of the top 50, 30 of the top 80, and 56 of the top 100 have not had careers that warranted inclusion on my list, you're likely to join me in concluding that the competition for those spots is only going to heat up in 2009.
So if you figure that taking home 1% of the total 2009 purse gets you top 30 status, .5% gets you into the top 50, and .25% gets you into the top 80, then the numbers everyone will be shooting for this coming season are something like $550K, $275K, and $137.5K (assuming the total purse is $55M). With Annika Sorenstam out of the picture, that puts another $1-2M on the table for everyone else next season, when you take into account her winning percentages and winnings percentages and rates. It'll be interesting to see how it gets divvied up. Will anyone outside the top 30 see any of it?
1. Lorena Ochoa $2.76M
2. Paula Creamer $1.82M
5. Helen Alfredsson $1.43M
10. Cristie Kerr $1.11M
20. Laura Diaz $809.5K
30. Brittany Lang $630.3K (1.045% of the total purse for the season)
50. Allison Fouch $375.3K (.622%)
80. Wendy Doolan $137.5K (.228%)
100. Julieta Granada $101.1K (.168%)
125. Young-A Yang $68.8K
Why these positions on the money list? The top 50 on the money list typically get into the late-season Asian Swing; the top 80 get Category 1 status the following season; #100 is the cut-off for Category 11 status; and #125 is the cut-off for Category 15 status. While it used to be the top 90 who got fully exempt status (roughly equivalent to Category 1 in the current membership system), I thought it would be interesting to track the top 80 trends here--plus it would help us look ahead and try to figure out where the upcoming season's "cut line" will fall.
What I was originally looking for when compiling the decade's stats was evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA has been getting deeper. I was a little surprised to find that Doolan's takings this past season were mid-to-low for a #80 player: while they were the best in recent years, they were nowhere close to Silvia Cavalleri's peak of .288% in 2004; whereas 4 of the 1st 5 #80 players got over .250% this decade, nobody has come close since 2004. In comments, Hound Dog suggested that the increasing number of limited-field events may help account for this trend. To test his hypothesis, let's see if the #30 players have been taking home even more than the #50, #80, and #100 players over the 2nd half of the decade.
#30 takings: .767% (2000), .825% (2001), .881% (2002), .984% (2003), .978% (2004), 1.002% (2005), .757% (2006), .857% (2007); 2000-2008 average: .900%; 2000-2004 average: .887%; 2005-2008 average: .915%
#50 takings: .472% (2000), .515% (2001), .481% (2002), .521% (2003), .555% (2004), .546% (2005), .529% (2006), .484% (2007); 2000-2008 average: .525%; 2000-2004 average: .509%; 2005-2008 average: .545%
#80 takings: .275% (2000), .252% (2001), .263% (2002), .214% (2003), .288% (2004), .227% (2005), .224% (2006), .214% (2007); 2000-2008 average: .243%; 2000-2004 average: .258%; 2005-2008 average: .223%
#100 takings: .203% (2000), .148% (2001), .158% (2002), .159% (2003), .183% (2004), .144% (2005), .144% (2006), .135% (2007); 2000-2008 average: .160%; 2000-2004 average: .170%; 2005-2008 average: .148%
The gap between the #30 and #50 player on tour had been growing steadily between 2000 and 2003, from .295 to .310 to .400 to .463, and only dropped slightly in 2004 to .423; from 2005 to 2006, however, the gap declined sharply from .456 to .228, and only went back up to .373 and .423 in the past 2 seasons. That averages out to a .378 gap in the 1st half of the decade and a .370 gap the past 4 seasons. So while a lot depends on the size of the gap this coming season before we can draw any definite conclusions, the data suggests that with most of the top 50 players getting into most of the limited-field events, there hasn't been a sharper separation between the #30 and #50 players over the course of the decade; if anything, the #50 players have been making up a little ground on the #30 players over the second half of the decade.
Similarly, the gap between the #30 and #80 players grew steadily from 2000 to 2003 (from .492 to .573 to .618 to .770) and dropped slightly in 2004 (to .690); where the data departs from the #30-#50 gap, however, is from 2005-2008 (moving from .775 to .533 to .643 to .817): the average gap in the 1st half of the decade was .629, while in the 2nd half of the decade (so far) it grew to .692. 2009 will have to buck this trend in a serious way to make a dent in that increasing separation between the #30 and #80 players. Meanwhile, the gap between the #50 and #80 players is widening even further, from .251 in the 1st half of the decade to .322 in the 2nd (thus far). That's a 22% increase compared to a 9% increase--pretty serious.
It seems clear, then, that the increase in limited-field events in the 2nd half of this decade is benefitting the top 50 players over the next 30 players on the LPGA in a fairly significant way. I see no reason for this trend not to continue. But as the #50 player tends to be doing better relative to the #80 player than the #30 player over time, I also see evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA is deepening.
This trend becomes even clearer when you bring the #100 player into the picture. Just as before, the gap between the #30 and #100 players has been widening from the 1st half (.717) to the 2nd half of the decade (.767), but the separation has been even sharper between the #50 and #100 players (from .339 to .397). Again, the #50 player's takings relative to the #100 player are increasing faster than the #30 player's, although the difference is a bit smaller (a 14.6% increase compared to a 6.5% increase). What this suggests is that the bottom of the 2nd 50 on the LPGA have been holding the line a little better than the top, despite being similarly shut out of most limited-field events. In fact, the distance between the #80 and #100 players actually shrunk from .088 in 2000-2004 to .075 in 2005-2008--almost a 15% drop!
Here's further evidence that the talent pool on the LPGA has been deepening this decade. With the #100 players closing the gap on the #80 players, the competition for those last Category 1 spots has been getting more intense (or would have, if the current rules had been in place all decade). If this trend continues, we're likely to see more years like last one, where Granada had the 3rd-best takings of the decade among the #100 players, coming very close to the decade's average, while Doolan's were only the 5th-best among the #80 players, significantly behind both the 4th-best and the decade's average. And I see little reason for it not to continue, as the vast majority of the 56 players I just profiled are top 80 material for 2009, which leaves only 30-35 more spots for the players whose careers to date have been only slightly less successful than those of the LPGA's elite. When you consider that 3 of the 2008 money list's top 30, 10 of the top 50, 30 of the top 80, and 56 of the top 100 have not had careers that warranted inclusion on my list, you're likely to join me in concluding that the competition for those spots is only going to heat up in 2009.
So if you figure that taking home 1% of the total 2009 purse gets you top 30 status, .5% gets you into the top 50, and .25% gets you into the top 80, then the numbers everyone will be shooting for this coming season are something like $550K, $275K, and $137.5K (assuming the total purse is $55M). With Annika Sorenstam out of the picture, that puts another $1-2M on the table for everyone else next season, when you take into account her winning percentages and winnings percentages and rates. It'll be interesting to see how it gets divvied up. Will anyone outside the top 30 see any of it?
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